“The Gold Bull Market Is Only in the Fourth Inning”

Published on
October 28th, 2020
Duration
54 minutes


“The Gold Bull Market Is Only in the Fourth Inning”

The Interview ·
Featuring Kiril Sokoloff

Published on: October 28th, 2020 • Duration: 54 minutes

Kiril Sokoloff sits down with Raoul Pal to discuss why he believes the bull market for precious metals is only in its fourth inning. All-in costs of gold production are under $1000 compared to the current price of $1900, creating profit margins never seen before in the industry. In effect, the gold mining companies have become free-cash flow machines. With US federal deficits growing as far as the eye can see, and the US owing more to the rest of the world than any nation in history, a dollar crisis is brewing, which will launch gold on the next leg of its bull market. Filmed on October 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Gold and gold miners are under-owned, misunderstood, and the beneficiary of many other current economic and financial trends.

Comments

Transcript

  • DF
    Daniel F.
    23 November 2020 @ 18:34
    Poor understanding of govt vs private
  • dg
    donald g.
    2 November 2020 @ 19:07
    What world are these guys living in to think it's going to be a blue wave?? There's no chance in the world that happens. Stick to finance and not your political opinions and agendas guys
    • ss
      steven s.
      5 November 2020 @ 14:21
      If you don't live in the US and just listen to MSM you will have a different opinion vs living in Texas or any fly over state.
    • CB
      Chris B.
      20 November 2020 @ 23:07
      This comment aged well.
  • JT
    Joseph T.
    20 November 2020 @ 21:59
    Remarkable interview Well done by Raoul and Kiril is always a wealth of knowledge.
  • BG
    Bill G.
    17 November 2020 @ 19:49
    This was a great interview. Question for Raoul or anyone: Kiril said that his gold portfolio is divided as follows...50% bullion, 25% gold miners and 25% franco (??). What is "franco" or did I not hear that correctly?
    • CD
      Camilo D.
      19 November 2020 @ 23:30
      Hi! Yes, you heard correctly. Franco Nevada is a gold royalty company, which has the business model they talked about. There is a great interview here on RV from April with its co-founder Pierre Lassonde, and Kiril.
  • AT
    Arnaud T.
    31 October 2020 @ 14:23
    So, he discovered that the private sector companies are blood thirsty leeches that grow on the back of the state and take advantage of built infrastructures without paying their fair shares of taxes? And it took him 50 years to realize that?? How many invisible hands do you need to wank yourself dry? (Pardon my French)
    • LS
      L S.
      31 October 2020 @ 16:49
      LOL, and I'm the one that gets hate over here. Arnie, isn't it weird that these guys can't see that large governments benefit the rich? It's amazing that the common man (bought off and likely not that intelligent) and even investor types here can't be honest or recognize this.
    • TF
      Terry F.
      1 November 2020 @ 07:47
      Kiril stated "I was born libertarian, I always thought that mass government is best, but I changed my mind about four or five years ago. I think that government needs to be able to allocate some of the nation's resources." Libertarians are proponents of little or no government. I think he meant that he was born "liberal". I'm not really sure what he thinks he is. It left me confused, and I think he is confused, as well.
    • DC
      Darran C.
      1 November 2020 @ 09:47
      hey Terry, he says "I was born libertarian, I always thought that less government is best" even the CC is confused but thats what it sounds like to me and makes sense in the context, is an interesting segment especially coming from confirmed capitalist maybe there's a middle path between Karl and Adam
    • TF
      Terry F.
      5 November 2020 @ 19:48
      Darran, if he said, "less" rather than "mass" then his statement makes sense. I was going by the transcript which said "mass". Sometimes I just don't want to take the time and listen, so I read the transcript which is faster (for me). I assume they use software for transcribing the audio, so sometimes I'm sure it gets it wrong. Thanks for the correction.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      19 November 2020 @ 08:33
      You need to work on your ability to comprehend mate. Talk about wrong end of the stick.
  • JK
    Jason K.
    18 November 2020 @ 03:24
    Excellent perspective. Great interview.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    15 November 2020 @ 19:28
    His audio very bad, hard to understand.
  • HT
    Hanh T.
    12 November 2020 @ 17:07
    It’s always fascinating to listen to these two brilliant guys. Your content is a gold mine. :-)
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    2 November 2020 @ 01:40
    Watching this video now and after reading some of the comments, I felt a bit sad. I still remember when RV was a place of thoughtful disagreement while being respectful. We must do everything we can to not let the vocal minority ruin what has made RV great. I feel so fortunate to be able to listen to someone as accomplished as Kiril and I would have never had that opportunity without RV. Let's make sure we don't let these trolls to ruin the experience for new people joining this great forum.
    • LS
      L S.
      9 November 2020 @ 17:02
      In a free and open society you choose to engage with others with different viewpoints, or ignore them. Same thing here. I don't get why people are always trying to socially or emotionally restrict others. Sad.
  • JS
    Jamie S.
    9 November 2020 @ 07:20
    Great conversation! I wasn't that au fait with the streaming companies but seems like a home run.
  • LS
    L S.
    28 October 2020 @ 19:40
    Sokoloff going full retard again on politics, I figured he would make a comment. Democrat sweep? LOL, no chance, covid fear monger. Why do these guys try to pull this halo effect on us with politics? Kiril, you know about other things, you are sophomoric at best on politics, and all of your past and soon to be future predictions will again be wrong. Another of the global elite, sadly. Then he has the nerve to talk about nationalist policies (who will do this?) after the blame Trump and Dem Sweep madness. LOL - Trump would do it. And he will, when he wins. Clown world again here on politics. (By the way, I'm in cash/gold/btc long term)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 October 2020 @ 22:20
      Enough of the ad hominids or you will have you membership refunded. Just because your politics dont agree with Kiril's, does make attacking him acceptable. We expect more from our members and this is not your first time being wanted about inappropriate comments.
    • RP
      Ron P.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:01
      I watch as closely as anyone How anyone can be so sure of the outcome either way is beyond me
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:25
      Great intercession Raoul.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 October 2020 @ 03:54
      Are your drunk when posting?
    • TE
      Tito E.
      29 October 2020 @ 08:37
      cheap comment
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:50
      I understand. If interested people can see my predictions above.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      29 October 2020 @ 23:48
      Glad you stepped in, Raoul. Such posts both cheapen RV and detract from the points being expressed. That said, unless you're referring to the author of the post as a Denisovan, Neanderthal or, perhaps, a Sahelanthropus tchadensis, may I suggest "ad hominem" instead. :-)
    • CS
      Charlie S.
      3 November 2020 @ 02:12
      It will certainly be fun to come back here after the election and discuss rationally the results with Mr. Lemony S....who evidently only gets Fox news on his television at home ;-)!!!!!!!
    • LS
      L S.
      3 November 2020 @ 19:41
      Let's see if you come back, Charlie. I'm waiting, bro
    • CS
      Charlie S.
      9 November 2020 @ 02:42
      Oh Lemony S...I am back...but after you shit all over this discussion...I am guessing we would all rather you walk away silently and with your tail in between your legs :-)! But if you really want to look like a complete moron you may want to claim that the election was rigged and Trump actually won!
  • BC
    Bill C.
    30 October 2020 @ 03:14
    I'm in agreement in regard to gold and miners. Let convinced of his argument relative to social and governmental aspects.
    • LS
      L S.
      30 October 2020 @ 20:16
      That's what I keep seeing as a commonality, which is contradictory to being an investor, let alone a market guy: the aging guy who is softer in older life (Dalio is the same way) who was once cutthroat and smart and did all he could with an open system ... now tries to suggest that they should close the door on it for others. It's really disappointing.
    • AT
      Arnaud T.
      31 October 2020 @ 14:46
      They haven‘t gone softer, they have gone wiser. Big big difference! You can‘t grow a society on greed alone. The many failings of capitalist societies we see today are a testament to the unsustainability of an overfeeding frenzy. Maybe you ought to open your eyes and your heart to the rest of the world. You‘re not alone on this boat and who wants to love in a bunker waiting for Armageddon anyways?
    • LS
      L S.
      31 October 2020 @ 16:54
      No, no no Arnie. They have gotten the feeling of "guilt" - you misunderstand completely their thinking and position. That supposed wealth they give as charity is a pittance compared to what they abused the system in getting, and I'm talking about Dalio specifically here. They aren't wise. Otherwise they would speak honestly about capitalism increasing the standard of living for the whole world and the US with its backbone of tradition and values as the promoter of faith and truth globally. Only when they sold out to larger government and making people the slaves of it, did we progressively (no pun intended) lose the middle class and confuse what capitalism is, was, and has done. A society has to have common values and goals and you are right, growth ad infinitum is NOT something that should be a goal. Virtue should be. Modern leftist and central government ideologies are expressly AGAINST these things.
    • KH
      Kjell H.
      1 November 2020 @ 13:13
      Arnaud T: -The many failings of capitalist societies we see today ... I my place tax on gasoline is 75% in total. The commmuting busses need subsidies to survive. Right. But is that "capitalism" ? What we we have i a highly controlled economy, where any money to neighbor is liable for taxation. If you pay someone you are probably doing something illegal
    • KH
      Kjell H.
      1 November 2020 @ 13:22
      In this highly regulated environment one of the few things one can do is improving own house ... without having to pay tax on work - making it pretty profitable
    • LS
      L S.
      3 November 2020 @ 19:39
      Yes, Kjell, we have both information wars and language wars; that is the macro and the micro of the same coin. Of course a "capitalist" framework has to be imbued with virtue. The problem is one of discernment and values. Please note that the socialist communist does not hold values across the board like a virtuous capitalist does, because the virtuous capitalist belives in faith, hope, love, charity and freedom. These things are what makes a people and a nation great. The socialist/communist society sets up its elites to have everything and makes its own claims on what is virtuous --- and these are false ideologies and idols. It is not a wonder, therefore, that they do not produce fruits. We have done the experiment many times and know the results.
  • PK
    Peter K.
    3 November 2020 @ 12:28
    Great interview, any insight to his list of junior miners?
  • PB
    Paolo B.
    28 October 2020 @ 20:10
    Great conversation. If I might add something about currencies forecasting is that the results of US elections will have a massive geopolitical impact internationally. If a blue wave US policies will be pretty much in normalization and in sync with Western countries; dialogue with China, less so with Russia: that is USD bullish. If Biden wins but Senate is republican held then these policies will be there but impact much less so as a gridlock in the US very possible with quite different views in some respect. It is still bullish but not as much. If Trump wins and get Senate that means double down on his agenda. For sure Europe will be then tariffed more and you can expect not getting along with the US nor try to anymore. Canada as mediator and opportunity taker in that sense. Nato will then disappear? For sure Germany France Italy Denmark are accelerating projects to strengthen their defense capability fast and not relying to US. Thinking at that scenario means more isolation for the US and currency wise less dominance and rotation for the dollar in my view. Still dominant in the next 2 years but after that? Another reason for being long BTC, GLD, SLV
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 20:36
      Yes sir. I will come back since I actually do know politics, and fess up or demand praise. My prediction: Trump wins. No snowball's chance in hell for a D sweep. literally 0.5% chance. Trump/R Senate/D House = 60% Trump/R Senate/R House = 35% Trump/D Senate/D House = 4.5%
    • VD
      Violeta D.
      28 October 2020 @ 21:08
      @Lemony S. How did you calculate the 0.5% of Biden/D Senate/ D House, and 0% chance for the other possibilities: Trump/D Senate/R House, Biden/ R Senate/D House, Biden/R House/R Senate? I appreciate the opinion, but your percentage estimates do not make any cense.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      28 October 2020 @ 23:35
      lol... Best case u hit 2 of 3 (plausible) and come back yapping u only had a 35% chance on the sweep... go bet it somewhere; since you're of by multiples, u could make a killing... Most people have a zero or near-zero change of R house...
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:47
      Yes, I left a few out because Biden has no path to victory apart from cheating - and on election night that will be the only possible way, it'll be clear. Wade, I'm betting Trump really big (5 figures) and against a D sweep (should I call it a Sokoloff sweep? LOL) for twice as much. My most likely outcome, as above, is Trump wins and the House and Senate remain D and R, respectively.
    • CS
      Charlie S.
      3 November 2020 @ 06:04
      fivethirtyeight.com Final joint probabilities: 72%: DEM trifecta 17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House 6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House 3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House 2%: GOP trifecta
  • JV
    Jaco V.
    2 November 2020 @ 21:46
    Amazing video. Amazing! When are you upgrading RV app so that i can have video in the background (picture-in-Picture) on iphone?
  • AC
    Ashley C.
    2 November 2020 @ 00:35
    That was amazing. Kiril is a fantastic person.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    1 November 2020 @ 20:28
    apologies for maybe a silly question but has the comments section somehow changed? I can no longer see comments with the videos. tks.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:23
    Wikipedia The saying, "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money" has been attributed to Dirksen, but there is no direct record of Dirksen saying the remark.
    • TF
      Terry F.
      1 November 2020 @ 07:43
      I believe that quote came out when the Senate was grilling the Hunt brothers when or after they attempted to corner the silver market in 1980. I always thought it came from Bunker Hunt, but maybe not.
  • GB
    Graeme B.
    1 November 2020 @ 07:16
    I didn’t realise Kiril also holds Bitcoin… Always love hearing him. He’s so generous with information and insight.
  • RS
    Ravinder S.
    1 November 2020 @ 00:27
    There is an tokenized gold coin, 1coin to 1gram of gold DGX, also you can request the gold in physical with extra cost https://digix.global/#/
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    28 October 2020 @ 07:19
    Switzerland is the safest place in the Covid world?! 62k active cases... Would have thought NZ or Taiwan more obvious
    • JL
      John L.
      28 October 2020 @ 18:23
      They don’t have secure gold vaults
    • OK
      Oliver K.
      31 October 2020 @ 23:50
      the pandemic. this shall pass. the vaults will remain.
  • DF
    Damien F.
    29 October 2020 @ 09:49
    Love the content. Is it possible for the next interview for Kiril to have a better mic or something? Find it hard to hear his audio clearly.
    • PL
      Peter L.
      29 October 2020 @ 18:04
      totally agree with this.
    • OK
      Oliver K.
      31 October 2020 @ 23:40
      toattly agreee. just learned this week from an actor: on a set the mic is more important than the camera. i guess here even more. still a very great interview :) THANX a lot KIRIL and sure also RAOUL
  • LS
    L S.
    31 October 2020 @ 16:56
    I've got 2 BTC wagered on KS being wrong about politics. Fade him. But get with Pal and KS on BTC and gold positioning. In the meanwhile, make money with me my friends.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    31 October 2020 @ 13:38
    So glad you asked about the gold vs. bond allocation Raoul. Makes total sense to me as I am 48% equity 34% gold 4% BTC after being close to 100% equity my entire life. Felt lonely thanks for the lifeline,ha
  • RK
    Ron K.
    31 October 2020 @ 01:05
    Kiril is Gold.
  • LS
    L S.
    28 October 2020 @ 19:45
    Overall, this is one of Kirill's worst. He suggests that he called the 2020 "down year" by predicting global tourism going down and acting like the market drop was anything but Covid, which he nor anyone else who says the same thing called. We PURPOSEFULLY shut down our economy. That is NOT fragility. It's unrelated. McCullough does the same thing and he and his peons don't bring up how they were also wrong for the last 7 months about another drop. Looks like it's not quite as fragile, Keith/Kirill! Oh, and it is fragile, but you guys make so much stuff up and don't hold your own predictions accountable it gets sickening after a while. Raoul does a far greater job of staying away from silly topics he knows little about (like politics) and he's certainly not a conservative, I'm guessing. Maybe Sokoloff and Novogratz can get together and bail out more criminals, then cheers a few finely aged scotches while NY goes further ghost town mode and their ivory towers allow them a great view! Cheers, gents!
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:24
      Here, here, Raoul. Love your intercession.
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:28
      Stop focusing on the politics Lemony and focus on the valuable nuggets Mr. Sokoloff is giving. I found a nice tip and will certainly be looking for an opportunity to invest in it in the future.
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:47
      Yes I am. Thanks.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      30 October 2020 @ 04:54
      @Lemony: Dude...What are you on about? Messrs Sokoloff and Novogratz have no ability to bail out criminals. They're not Governors or Presidents. As far as predictions go...you have no clue! No one knows. Voting patterns and the polls suggest a blue sweep. That's all we've got as yardstick. Stick around. We'll find out soon enough. And if blue does sweep will you deny it happened? Will you cry fake news and unleash the whiny tears? Will you promise to eat crow for the RV audience?
    • LS
      L S.
      30 October 2020 @ 20:19
      Liam, Novo not only repped this position and his foundations that do this, he did it on an interview and yes they provide bail for people - people who have subsequently murdered others even. I'm not blaming Novo per se but he is ignorant of the people he is dealing with, and that's what happens when you have guilt and only first order thinking. Money doesn't fix real issue by itself.
    • LS
      L S.
      30 October 2020 @ 20:19
      Yes, by the way, I'll promise to eat crow if I'm wrong, and I'll even apologize to Mr. Pal.
  • MB
    Mike B.
    30 October 2020 @ 14:16
    That was an interesting interview but his comments on Europe and a blue wave in the USA are hard to reconcile. Time will tell but the Euro construct is deeply flawed and the negative rates is all the evidence needed to make that conclusion. The European banking system is on its knees and I would have thought he could have connected the dots better and discussed the necessity for a digital currency in Europe. It is their only hope but it will come with severe consequences making his gold call all the more timely.
    • LS
      L S.
      30 October 2020 @ 20:14
      Yes, see my multiple posts though people don't like their bluntness - there is reason I do that. If you notice, in no way do they represent a large % of all of my posts.
  • AB
    AJ B.
    30 October 2020 @ 15:55
    Mr. Sokoloff is falling for the perspective that the seen is much better than the unseen. He sees that a bridge is built by government, so he believes it is the only way. It's unnerving that he believes only governments can build bridges, high speed rail, and other projects that need large scale societal cooperation. This perception is most definitely the most dangerous virus of our time. Our government friends have convinced Mr. Sokoloff and others that government, and only government, can achieve such works. Mr. Sokoloff complains about what he sees, but instead of deciding to go in the opposite direction he believes we should continue with more centralized planning. Instead we should go with what has been unseen by giving power and resources (taxes) back to individuals and allow them to cooperate with society.
    • LS
      L S.
      30 October 2020 @ 20:13
      I got admonished for pointing out as much down below, though I admit I was a bit more bombastic. Why I reacted that way was precisely due to your point AND the fact that KS even goes further on a limb and talked about particular politics (Dem sweep), which was also way out there, though I do see it was to fulfill his narrative of gold doing better if a traitor like Biden were to be elected.
  • MY
    Michael Y.
    29 October 2020 @ 05:47
    Anyone catch that Orlot? reference in Mexico? Can't seem to find it.
    • JD
      John D.
      29 October 2020 @ 12:15
      Orla Mining https://www.orlamining.com/
    • PW
      Phil W.
      30 October 2020 @ 16:42
      fairly low grade prject
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    30 October 2020 @ 12:46
    Brilliant, thank you.
  • FM
    Francisco M.
    30 October 2020 @ 12:34
    Priceless. More of Kiril, please.
  • GJ
    Griffith J.
    29 October 2020 @ 16:05
    I’d happily vote for Kiril 2020
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:32
      Dem sweep = kool aid drinker. I'll pass.
    • JF
      Jackie F.
      30 October 2020 @ 11:39
      me too
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 October 2020 @ 03:00
    Lovely.
  • DF
    David F.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:27
    Everett Dirksen said" a billion here a billion there ....
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      30 October 2020 @ 02:16
      In time hopefully, one will be saying "a bitcoin here, a bitcoin there, and soon you're talking real money"! -)
  • WT
    William T.
    30 October 2020 @ 02:11
    Interesting to note; Warren Buffett didn't buy gold, he bought a gold miner.
  • MV
    Matthew V.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:47
    Kiril is worth the the essential tier by himself.
  • AW
    Aaron W.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:18
    Tremendous to see two greats talk about the world's longest-standing currency. Gold history is a 101 prerequisite for all investing.
  • BB
    Ben B.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:56
    Don't trust the AISC number go to the balance sheet of mining companies instead.
  • CG
    Chris G.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:29
    The Grand Senior of Finance.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:06
    https://soundcloud.com/horizonkinetics/horizon-kinetics-roundtable-with-murray-stahl-event-date-sep-24-2020/s-ScfyXLUGE4H thinking that humans can control the environment is a fallacy ,
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:34
      Globalists have all sorts of silly ideas, most of them are based on fear and control - and demons are the spirit of this age, sadly.
  • MO
    Michael O.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:11
    As a young lad I used to walk by a statue in Edinburgh (often drunk) and subconsciously knew I'd find out who he was one day. He is oft quoted by Dr Lacy Hunt as one of the greatest minds of all time and quoted again by Kiril 43:17 mins (Einstein credited him as the inspiration behind his theory of relativity). That statue was of David Hume. Brilliant interview btw.
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:33
      I chuckled when I read this, Michael. Thanks, good stuff from across the pond.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    29 October 2020 @ 09:43
    The world is 100% convicted that interest rates will remain low or negative , It seems that this is the most crowed trade in history, What happens if rates rise ?
    • LV
      Luke V.
      29 October 2020 @ 11:26
      This is not true. There is currently one of the largest short positions ever against the 30Y on right now...
    • JM
      Jim M.
      29 October 2020 @ 19:05
      I hear much the opposite.
  • DD
    Donal D.
    28 October 2020 @ 09:12
    Really enjoyed the interview but per chance did anyone get the name of the mining company he talked. It sounded something like ORLA Mining or the like?
    • JM
      John M.
      28 October 2020 @ 11:14
      Yep! Orla Mining (TSE: OLA)
    • KP
      Krishna P.
      28 October 2020 @ 11:30
      Yes it is ORlA mining. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ola?countrycode=ca
    • PA
      Pascal A.
      28 October 2020 @ 12:16
      yes, it's Orla Mining. Checked the fact that Pierre has a 12% stake in there.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:17
      Excellent job subscribers, I missed the name as well. Good for checking that 12% ownership Pierre.
    • AH
      Alexandra H.
      29 October 2020 @ 03:36
      Orla Mining has a great property in Mexico close to Newmont’s Penasquito. Newmont owns about 20% of Orla, I believe. Agnico also owns a big chunk. Orla also owns a promising property in Panama. I bought some at $1.10, now it’s over $5.00, and that’s with the recent pullback! Wish I’d bought more at that price! Glad to hear it’s in Kiril’s 13D fund, gives me even more confidence in it!
    • ET
      Evan T.
      29 October 2020 @ 18:03
      Or is the ticker ORRLF
  • MS
    Milkey S.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:06
    Perhaps MMT proponents can learn a thing or two here!
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:23
      As Mr. Gundlach said we have had MMT welfare for years. DLS
    • GU
      Greg U.
      29 October 2020 @ 18:01
      MMT proponents could learn from this, but they're incapable of it. Eventually they will, but only through bitter first-hand experience.
  • DS
    David S.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:27
    Always a pleasure to listen to Mr. Sokoloff and Mr. Pal discuss anything. The US is being torn apart by COVID Times. I would rather have normal recessions than always printing money. The pandemic is different. The US will have to print to keep any economy at all. Europe through the Euro does not have this capability. COVID Times will be with the US and Europe to some extent for at least four, yes four, years. It will not be over in 2021. It spreads whether you have symptoms or not. The immunity in recent British studies is gone in months. Even the vaccine may need to be taken often. There is no herd immunity without constant vaccinations. Europe will surive, but I do not see anyway for the Euro to survive. I have been wrong before, but if you combine a most contagious virus with a non-compliant population you have pandemic longevity. The vaccine and better treatments will mitigate the pandemic's effects on the population and the economy. I hate it, but four years is possible. DLS
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:30
      DLS, I think you need to read into T-Cell memory, re. COVID-19 and antibodies. You may find some cause for optimism.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:17
      The-First-James M. - Thanks. Is T-Cell with vaccine or immunity after COVID recovery? The British study showed decline in immunity after three to four months after recovery from COVID. Hopefully the vaccine benefits will be longer. DLS
    • JG
      Johan G.
      29 October 2020 @ 14:25
      David S. I believe the lack of immunity found is related to antibodies, whereas T Cell immunity is independent of antibodies. 20-50% of the population may be immune to Covid 19 because their t cells recognise the virus and kill it off quickly without the patient feeling sick. First line defense. Pls correct me anyone if I got it wrong
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 15:45
      Johan G. - Thanks for your post also. I hope the T-cell immunity will help us get past this. I will try to find out more information. DLS
    • ME
      Mark E.
      29 October 2020 @ 15:48
      The US is not printing money, in fact the Fed can't do this. They are, however, creating new bank reserves through the purchase of treasuries and MBS from member banks, which the banks could loan against if they chose to, and which would create ("print") new money. Unfortunately, lending standards are tightening and loan origination rates are declining, while simultaneously outstanding loans are being paid down, leading to a decrease in the money supply, ie the exact opposite of printing. Hence the deflation narrative, at least for now...
    • GU
      Greg U.
      29 October 2020 @ 17:59
      I agree with much of what you say, except for "The US will have to print to keep any economy at all." That will almost certainly happen, but it cannot prop up an economy. It can only create demand without supply, leading to inflation and problems that this creates.
  • JS
    Jürgen S.
    29 October 2020 @ 17:56
    Great interview. I‘m not so sure if Kiril is right about Europe. Personally I‘m much more pessimistic.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:18
    Inflation will come from de-globalization, de-urbanization, food iinflation, populism and a higher velocity of money from fiscal stimulus.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      29 October 2020 @ 17:52
      Inflation will come solely from more money creation and higher velocity. The other factors don't cause inflation. If the price of food increases, for example, then people have less to spend on other things, so their prices will fall. An arbitrary basket of goods and services may show inflation, but that's because it doesn't measure ALL prices.
  • JP
    Jason P.
    29 October 2020 @ 16:43
    https://mises-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Letter_Howard%20Buffet_Murray%20Rothbard_19620731.pdf something you may not know, maybe you do. Buffett’s father was a hard money guy. He wrote letters back and forth with Rothbard. Here is one of the letters in the link above. Great interview!
  • JD
    J D.
    29 October 2020 @ 15:18
    Always a pleasure to hear from Kiril. Thanks Kiril, Raoul + Real Vision team.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    29 October 2020 @ 11:46
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugj634e4TjM FYI
  • dw
    douglas w.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:49
    The gross profit margin on quality miners are akin to tech companies. It is hilarious, bordering on bizarre, how under invested funds are in the space. As Mr. Sokoloff said, this is beginning to change; Zell, Dalio, PTJ, Gundlach, and now Buffett. I would go back and listen to the previous interviews with Pierre Lassonde and also Ross Beaty here on RV, if you are still gathering information about the value of physical gold and quality mining plays. Also, I recommend watching a recent great interview with Beaty and Frank Giustra: https://www.denvergold.org/keynote-webcast/dgf20/100/ Two ridiculously successful, multi-decade long, epic investors in the mining space. They are humble and straightforward about the value of gold. Maybe RV can get Giustra at some later date in the future. Thanks again Raoul and RV for getting Mr. Sokoloff back, his calming philosophical approach to these complex times, is an incredible value and makes me proud to be a part of this community.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:33
      Frank Giustra - King of the Vancouver stock promoters?! I'd rather not: https://iknnews.com/heres-one-for-the-good-guys-in-vancouver-mining/
    • MS
      Milkey S.
      29 October 2020 @ 11:29
      For investors looking into gold exploration stocks, check out Tudor Gold, they're currently sitting on at least 25M ounces. perhaps even up to 5OM in Canada. One of the best well know properties. The 17,913 hectare Treaty Creek Project lies within the “Golden Triangle”, one of the most important mineral districts of northwestern British Columbia. The Project borders Seabridge Gold Inc.’s KSM property to the southwest and borders Pretium Resources Inc.’s Brucejack property to the southeast. The past producing Eskay Creek mine lies 12 km to the west. Billionaire & huge gold investor Eric Sprott is a huge shareholder. Ken Konkin & Walter Storm spear head the project, very experienced & well know among gold miners. American Creek Resources also owns 20% of the project besides there own property which Eric Sprott os also a huge shareholder. Important to note, this mine is huge & will be an open pit mine-very profitable. Check them both out. AMK & TUD tickers.
  • NB
    Nicholas B.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:29
    "If you are in a bull market, you buy and hold"
  • JM
    Jason M.
    29 October 2020 @ 09:29
    Greek Shipowners have increased GLD exposure from 1-3% to 6-10%. UHNW
  • MW
    McChicken W.
    29 October 2020 @ 06:59
    Will have to read the Transcript as hardly cannot hear what Mr Sokoloff says
  • EC
    Earl C.
    29 October 2020 @ 06:27
    Perhaps not relevant from a investment angle but the important point Kirill makes about Europeans having WWII a part of their collective consciousness. The polar opposite in US. Such as it is fashionable for millennials to bash baby boomers for the US physical conundrum. The US is now experiencing some of the pain directly linked to it's participation in the WWI. The war is solely responsible for creating the baby boomers. Lastly I think FDR's Social Security Act of 1935 coincidently played an important part in getting American families on board to make the sacrifice that they accepted to have US the big winner, at least up until recently.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    29 October 2020 @ 06:06
    Just Excellent. Kiril is amazing. Coincidence? Today, after earning release, Newmont Mining hiked its dividend 60%(2.7% yield), Agnico hiked by 75% (1.8% yield) & Alamos hiked by 33% (1% yield)
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    29 October 2020 @ 05:58
    please have people use headsets. the audio hurts and this is distracting
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    29 October 2020 @ 05:24
    Superb, thank you.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    29 October 2020 @ 05:02
    More conversations like this, please. RV has become very crisis-focused and crypto-focused these days, and I miss RV from 1, 2 years ago.
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:33
    Fourth innings is the last one in cricket - quite late stage then are we chaps?
    • IM
      Ian M.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:44
      I'm hoping that Mr Sokoloff was thinking in terms of baseball!
  • IM
    Ian M.
    28 October 2020 @ 13:46
    For someone (like me) who doesn't have the background to evaluate individual gold miners, is the best option to buy GDX? This gives me exposure to the big players in that sector and presumably the ETF management earn their fee by ensuring the quality of the index members - or is that a dangerous assumption?
    • MK
      Michael K.
      28 October 2020 @ 15:58
      Short answer - yes.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      28 October 2020 @ 17:53
      GDX has been good to me.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      28 October 2020 @ 17:57
      Refresh your memory by reading their fact sheet, etc., re: their mgmt approach. I vaguely recollect the expense ratio is modest, yet material, maybe 70 basis points, and also that its not actively managed, perhaps not even for valuation/quality, only market cap, which if true, suggests your remark about 'ensured quality' may be off a bit. Nevertheless, if u can justify the expense ratio and u know u can't evaluate miners, I think it's a no brainer and would feel good about it; the basket profoundly diminishes indiv company risk, and it doesn't own jr explorers. I might add its one thing to find and analyze miners, and another to look closely at miners recommended by folks u trust, examine them as closely as u can, and allocate a portion of what would be GDX $ into a few names u find attractive. Even if you go 80% GDX and 5% each of four favorite names, u can try for some out-performance and follow names u find intriguing, but still not blow it too bad if they under perform the sector. My quick 2 cents.
    • PB
      Paolo B.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:57
      You can but a physical bullion like Sprott is highly recommended imo, check for example PHYS and PSLV. Miners have higher return but remember to check them out very well. Like M Twain said "a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top".
    • NT
      Nicholas T.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:49
      It's not that hard to find a decent safe jurisdiction gold mine producer now churning out money. The risk and heavy research is more with the explorers and developers. Maybe something to consider in addition to your GDX.
    • IM
      Ian M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:21
      Your responses are much appreciated - this will help me enhance my basic 'KISS' strategy.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:01
      Nothing wrong with going GDX. I used to by the individual miners. Honestly, researching them and keeping track of stop prices on my brokerage accounts was just too much. You have to be willing to take profits and use really tight stops. I ended up. being stuck with dead money for like five years. Headache unless you have 20 hours / week to focus on the companies and prices. My life is much easier focusing only on GDX.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:43
      When gold was going fast I made money on GDX & GDXJ. I am thinking about a long option on GDXJ since the big guys, GDX, are on the hunt for acquisitions. ?? DLS
  • WM
    Will M.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:51
    Just excellent. Individuals like Kirill and Tony Deden are examples of highly prudent investors, especially for the longer term. I am solidly into the monies and the physical. I am closely looking at other commodities, particularly agricultural. I am finally now into the GBTC for my IRA and about to buy my first bitcoins. I am now heading toward 50% of my wealth in precious metals/miners including a small exposure to Bitcoin.
    • WM
      Will M.
      28 October 2020 @ 18:00
      One small point on Kiril's comment about extremely high miner profits..... If and when, (if the polls are roughly correct) the Democrats seize power, I suspect they will argue strongly for a super / windfall tax on astronomical gold mining profits. I also think the capital gains on gold profits could easily jump to 50%.... I have no trust in government any more, irrespective of party.
    • RR
      Rob R.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:16
      Couldn’t agree more
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:37
      Will M. - I agree but I think there will be plenty of cash flow for all. I am more worried about governments outside of North America and Australia. DLS
  • MB
    Michael B.
    28 October 2020 @ 19:28
    Did anyone follow his allocations when he discussed in percentage terms physical gold, miners, and Franco Nevada? I listened to it three times but still didn't add up for me?
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 20:33
      50-25-25 Boullion, Royalty (FNV and slurred word, I think another royalty company, "Salien"?), Miners
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:32
      There is a transcript now. You might look there. DLS
  • GS
    GEORGE S.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:28
    i wished u asked him about bitcoin
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:08
      Kiril discussed, 27:15.
  • DR
    Dustin R.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:11
    Fellas, thanks for the great interview. Kiril briefly mentioned a Gold crypto and I just happened to come across PAXG the other day. Turns out BlockFi is offering 4% APY on PAXG deposits if that's worth it to anyone out there. Apologies if anyone has already mentioned PAXG in a previous comment...
    • CP
      Chamil P.
      29 October 2020 @ 04:01
      There is also Tether Gold (XAUT). This fund invests in both PAXG and XAUT and uses margin lending to attempt to outperform. Some fascinating innovation in the space. https://invictuscapital.com/en/gold-plus
  • MR
    Madhur R.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:00
    Brilliant interview; please can RV do more of the Sokoloff expert series interviews
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:07
    The king of gold miners Ross Beaty.... (EQX....PAAS). Watch this classic real vision with Ross and Grant Williams....Ross is the real deal. https://www.realvision.com/shows/grant-williams/videos/grant-williams-in-conversation-with-ross-beaty
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:04
    Fantastic interview! Thanks Raoul! It would be great to have a conversation between Kiril and Stanley!! This is how I found RV several years ago and I think these are the times for an update!! I'm also eagerly waiting for an interview from your previous boss!! Mr Paul Tudor!! cheers!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:48
    really enjoyable discussion.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:46
    Excellent discussion. Thanks to both of you. I hope Kiril will be back soon.
  • JM
    Jackson M.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:21
    Does anyone know the index Kiril references? The index he said he created?
    • tW
      tgwtom W.
      29 October 2020 @ 02:02
      Surely propietery to 13D clients.
  • dl
    donald l.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:48
    I intend to sell all my miners/royalty co. into the hyperinflation collapse because all gov'ts will be desperate for income after the 'reset', and they will nationalize/massively windfall tax all producers. That is a very high probability, IMO. I can very highly recommend NFG for speculators. See my post on it for details.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:28
      Good luck with timing that one...
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:27
    I generally don't get star struck. But these two guys leave me so very appreciative every time I listen to what they have to say. Real Vision is aptly named. They are in a class of their own. Congratulations and thanks.
  • BB
    Bjorn B.
    28 October 2020 @ 10:39
    Since most core discussions in macro seem to be returning to quantifying supply vs demand - especially in Bitcoin. Would be interesting to see interviews that clarify the actual supply of gold mining production next 5yrs. Does gold mining production through 2025/26 actually see the historical supply increase of +2%YY over time? Suspect there is a difference in fact versus opinion here. But would be great to see someone who can nail this one down.
    • NK
      Niro K.
      28 October 2020 @ 11:02
      It’s getting extremely hard to get gold of the ground I doubt it if the 2% new supply p year could be sustained , it will probably will end up lower
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      28 October 2020 @ 15:15
      The supply of gold that actually moves the needle on price tends to be the gold that's already been mined. This makes next year's gold supply increase less relevant and perhaps that's why it's not part of a core discussion. I think this line of reasoning should apply to all monetary instruments where the flow divided by the stock is a relatively small fraction. Once that fraction becomes less small, then the instrument starts to carry less utility as a monetary unit.
    • NT
      Nicholas T.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:05
      As I understand it, there's a bit of near term pressure on supply because it was hard to raise money for new projects for a number of years while the price of gold down. Now they're playing catchup.
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:20
    Thank you for this interview!
  • KR
    Kelly R.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:19
    Kiril is definitely one of the best guests on RV. Very insightful and a brilliant thinker. I am quite certain that his 13D miner portfolio inc FNV, AEM, Barrick, AGI, Newmont and AU Gold/Gold Miners seem to be a very BIG portion of his overall portfolio. He is a historian / cycle expert and will prove to be correct imho.
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    28 October 2020 @ 08:28
    Loved this conversation and Kiril is like a zen master his voice is so calming. He should do mediation tracks. Also does Raoul have a Barbers chair in his house?
    • AR
      Andrew R.
      28 October 2020 @ 08:30
      Or is it a throne? Either way there is a story there.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 October 2020 @ 10:11
      Its a 1950's barber chair that I use for listening to music! Its in my house in Grand Cayman, hence the different back drop...
    • MB
      Michael B.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:34
      I think the point was that your hair is always perfect Raoul.
    • RP
      Ron P.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:16
      So Raoul. You have a house in Grand Caymen and another in Little Cayman? How does that work? Is one for the beach?
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:54
    Is the volume a bit low or is that just my setup?
    • RP
      Ron P.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:07
      Your set up
  • RM
    Robert M.
    28 October 2020 @ 19:29
    If you want to invest in miners, highly suggest you subscribe to Fred Hickey's newsletter. He does tech and miners and will give you a thorough review of miners to buy. Also watch Ross Beaty's interview on RV. Companies Ross is involved include PAAS, EQX, and LMGDF. LMGDF is in exploratory phase now and Ross says its a 5 bagger. They will look to sell it. Trades OTC. Also look up his videos on Youtube. He is a good one to follow based on his successful track record and the fact there are some shifty characters in the gold space, so you want to go with those with a track record.
    • dw
      douglas w.
      28 October 2020 @ 23:55
      Fred Hickey has been pounding the table for a while. Grant interviewed him twice here on RV back in the day, but maybe it's time he comes back when they want to speak about qqq/gold inter relationship as he also looks at the chip space.
  • RP
    Ron P.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:49
    What a comforting wise man. His clear calm delivery helps you to think through the noise. For me he is so reassuring since my allocation is very similar to his. I do think I trade around my position too much after digesting what he says. He is fabulous. Thank you Raoul
  • MS
    Milkey S.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:32
    For investors looking into gold exploration stocks, check out Tudor Gold, they're currently sitting on at least 25M ounces. perhaps even up to 5OM in Canada. One of the best well know properties. The 17,913 hectare Treaty Creek Project lies within the “Golden Triangle”, one of the most important mineral districts of northwestern British Columbia. The Project borders Seabridge Gold Inc.’s KSM property to the southwest and borders Pretium Resources Inc.’s Brucejack property to the southeast. The past producing Eskay Creek mine lies 12 km to the west. Billionaire & huge gold investor Eric Sprott is a huge shareholder. Ken Konkin & Walter Storm spear head the project, very experienced & well know among gold miners. American Creek Resources also owns 20% of the project besides there own property which Eric Sprott os also a huge shareholder. Important to note, this mine is huge & will be an open pit mine-very profitable. Check them both out. AMK & TUD tickers.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    28 October 2020 @ 21:16
    The Pal-Sokoloff interviews alone are worth the price of the Real Vision subscription. I only wish we could be treated more often. If one revisits that Fall 2019 interview, one is shocked by how accurate the forecast turned out. As for these junior miners, Mr. Hugh Hendry said recently that they were like owning tech giants in their infancy. All the fundamentals certainly point to that. And Mr. Sokoloff has just added further confirmation here. 2021 looks to be one hell of a ride. Interesting times indeed. Proceed accordingly. Cheers.
  • SM
    Steve M.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:48
    Kiril comes across like a very decent human being
    • RK
      Richard K.
      28 October 2020 @ 20:56
      Then buy Canadian or Australian gold miners
  • MO
    Master O.
    28 October 2020 @ 08:01
    According to Rick Rule that total Institutional funds have only 0.5% allocation to gold. If that allocation doubles, you could easily see 10X returns.
    • JS
      Jared S.
      28 October 2020 @ 18:40
      wow, do you have a link/source for this?
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:34
      Rule is very smart and very all over the place.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:17
    SUPERB INTERVIEW! AWESOME I am a brazilian, 33 y old guy, buying only two bullets: '1 gold and silver miners 2 bitcoin (and galaxy digital) Cheers!
    • KP
      Krishna P.
      28 October 2020 @ 16:45
      Checkout Kraken if it is available in your country for Bitcoin.
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:29
      I am doing that as we speak, Krishna, but why do you say that? Thanks.
  • EC
    Edward C.
    28 October 2020 @ 18:48
    Fantastic interview...Thank you. Based on comments below, I think Marin Katusa would be a fantastic follow on to guide members on discipline in trading, metrics worth considering, ETFs versus your own personal basket etc. Has been on RV previously.....a friend of Raoul also if I am not mistaken? Thanks again.
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:28
      Katusa can be fun but is more of a shock blowhard these days. All the newsletter guys can get that way if you don't watch out ... what's funnier is that Rick Rule is savvy about what he releases to the public as well ...
  • RG
    Ryan G.
    28 October 2020 @ 14:29
    Great interview from Kiril like always. Great thinker. I own Gold, Silver and Bitcoin. Where does property fit into this thesis? Buy more or sell? I have my own thoughts keen to here more opinions.
    • TF
      Theodore F.
      28 October 2020 @ 17:45
      It depends on what property, where, at what price. Some of the best property portfolios for the economy of the future is available in the public market (REITs) https://exchange.realvision.com/post/5f92febc7dd8530d9a32894b
    • RR
      Rob R.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:19
      I’ve been pondering that also. Inflation = higher prices BUT Can’t help But thinking the end game means higher rates , ie better returns than inflated properties , therefore prices go lower
  • LB
    Lorenzo B.
    28 October 2020 @ 18:21
    Which is index of potential acquisition candidates Kirill is talking about?
  • RP
    Renato P.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:58
    Great interview! Please thanks Mr. Sokoloff for sharing his knowledge and thoughts!
  • FS
    Florian S.
    28 October 2020 @ 08:31
    Kirill is definitely one of my very favorite speakers on RV. Every video of his is a must watch. Amazingly clear, sober views on what is going on.
    • HS
      Henry S.
      28 October 2020 @ 17:43
      After all these years I still go back and watch his Druckenmiller interview. He's one of the great minds in this space.
  • JM
    John M.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:31
    Excellent interview. Always a pleasure to hear from Kiril!
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    28 October 2020 @ 15:21
    One of the best ways to make sure you buy and hold gold is to buy the physical bullion. Buy it slowly over time in the same way you would save money. If your annual income/wage inflates at the same rate as the price of gold, then you will be buying the same quantity of metal every month.
  • DR
    David R.
    28 October 2020 @ 15:17
    Simply marvellous. Thank you.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    28 October 2020 @ 14:39
    This was great! Thanks a lot Kiril & Raoul!
  • MF
    Michael F.
    28 October 2020 @ 14:35
    WOW....JUST WOW!.. Sublime interview with so much insight. I have taken two A4 pages of notes! Thanks :-)
  • AR
    Al R.
    28 October 2020 @ 14:32
    more content like this please
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    28 October 2020 @ 13:17
    Superb stuff from Kiril, as usual. Kiril is a mentor and role model for us all - extremely sharp, humble and non-dogmatic. Deeply questioning things, always keeping an open mind and always learning. I learn as much about character from watching him as I do about investing.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      28 October 2020 @ 14:10
      The single Thumbs-Down must be feeling pretty lonely right now. Would be keen to hear why they voted this one down.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    28 October 2020 @ 11:37
    Superb ...
  • SS
    Steven S.
    28 October 2020 @ 08:20
    Some things in life are best suited for young brains with an ability for a focused but deep analysis. Effectiveness in investing, as is the case for so many complex systems, is best suited for experienced brains containing accumulated wisdom. Kiril is the best at doing so. Miners and royalty companies makes an incredible amount of sense right now as does owning physical bullion. Miners, physical bullion, a few commodities, selected recession-resistant stocks, selected tech stocks that enable efficiencies, and BTC are how I'm positioned.
    • JP
      Jason P.
      28 October 2020 @ 10:01
      Sir, your in my chair..
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    28 October 2020 @ 09:49
    Great interview pity Kiril’s mic wasn’t a bit clearer