The Last Gasps of the Easy Money Experiment

Published on
May 14th, 2020
Duration
73 minutes


The Last Gasps of the Easy Money Experiment

The Interview ·
Featuring William White and Brent Johnson

Published on: May 14th, 2020 • Duration: 73 minutes

At few moments in history have the policies of global central banks been as important as they are today. Former central bank insider and senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, William White, tells Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson just how we’ve gotten to this point. Dr. White puts forward the nuanced view that he is glad policymakers have implemented certain tools to lessen the impact of the crisis while also driving home the point that at best we are kicking the can down the road. The pair also discuss central bankers’ recent abdication to fiscal authorities, the political limitations of policy tools supporting foreign markets, and the fate of the global dollar system. Filmed on Tuesday, May 12, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • JL
    John L.
    21 May 2020 @ 21:55
    Awesome material!!...Loved it...
  • OL
    Oliver L.
    21 May 2020 @ 14:11
    William White, a brilliant mind and a true rebel among central bankers. Great interview!
  • JB
    Josh B.
    20 May 2020 @ 01:48
    One of the best interviews ever one real vision. What a whale you guys landed! Brent Johnson asked great leading questions. Bravo 5+ Stars
  • MB
    Michael B.
    19 May 2020 @ 19:47
    Mr. White is the Canadian Paul Volcker. Great interview!
  • JA
    Jerram A.
    19 May 2020 @ 08:55
    Dr White. What a Statesman.
  • AB
    Avik B.
    14 May 2020 @ 11:54
    Why are all the videos starting in the middle of the video on the phone app for the last 3 days?
    • JS
      Jason S.
      14 May 2020 @ 14:10
      Thanks for asking the important questions. I thought I was the only one.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      14 May 2020 @ 14:39
      Also here
    • RD
      Ryan D.
      14 May 2020 @ 14:52
      Huh- though it was something I did with fat thumbs....
    • TL
      Tom L.
      14 May 2020 @ 19:30
      Your comment is hotly debated with everyone agreeing lol.
    • TC
      Tor C.
      14 May 2020 @ 20:13
      AppleTV also
    • CL
      Chuck L.
      14 May 2020 @ 23:25
      Second time this week the interview started with 35-38 minutes remaining; also some phases with no sound, Using iPhone. Surprised find others having similar problems. Meanwhile — yet another great interview.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      18 May 2020 @ 16:34
      Ditto. Paging Milton ....
  • AB
    Andy B.
    17 May 2020 @ 21:16
    no offence but does anybody know what Brent Johnson does? Is he an investment advisor? Does he run a public fund? Is there any info on the amount of assets under management? Never understood what Santiago Capital actually does.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      18 May 2020 @ 16:32
      RIA in San Francisco, CA
  • AG
    Alan G.
    18 May 2020 @ 02:40
    Thank you very much for this great interview. This discussion to me is very similar to the model of debt and money creation, that Ray Dalio has been speaking about for a long time. I first read his view of it in 2013 and more recently he wrote a book called Navigating the Big Debt Cycle. As Dr. White said this debt cycle issue has gone on for hundreds if not thousands of years. Thanks again.
  • rr
    rlw r.
    16 May 2020 @ 21:27
    Yep, more Brent and William when possible.
    • Rg
      Ruben g.
      16 May 2020 @ 23:44
      definitely. I can listen to those two all day. love how Brent allowed the man to speak and express his thoughts without interruptions. Great professionalism.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    16 May 2020 @ 17:54
    Brent, great job on the interview asking cogent questions. Mr. White, your experience and wisdom on monetary and fiscal matters is indelible. You have seen the systems from inside and we can only guess how this ends, but the leverage, un-sustainability, complexity and political complications suggests that the game of monetary easing is up. Thank God. Of all systems, the value of the work of all peoples, needs fiscal truth and transparency, not manipulation and opacity to benefit the powerful. A new age is dawning, a better age. But, there will be struggle. Buy Bitcoin.
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    14 May 2020 @ 18:31
    WILLIAM WHITE: They're certainly not fixable in the traditional way. They're certainly not fixable in the traditional way. Certainly, we're getting much, much closer to the endgame. Think about what it means: We can not lower interest rate further QE is not working, what is left is MMT money for nothing and currency debasement, at least till we will re-adjust debt problems to a manageable level and inflate our way out of debt. If this is not the reason to go and buy gold, I do not know what is ! And to Brent point keep some cash to buy more gold if it goes in sale during dollar spike
    • IZ
      Ileana Z.
      15 May 2020 @ 03:56
      Honestly though, what are we really going to do with our gold when the system collapses. Don't get me wrong I love gold. But many people here havent experienced a country that has a major financial collapse, crazy things can and do happen. In unexpected ways.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      15 May 2020 @ 22:14
      What is your (and maybe you can guess Brent's) timeline for this to happen?
    • WM
      Will M.
      16 May 2020 @ 14:47
      Perhaps the gold stocks will provide part of the answer..... in addition to some physical gold and silver.
  • PG
    Pavel G.
    16 May 2020 @ 09:21
    I see Brent, I press like.
  • CG
    Christine G.
    14 May 2020 @ 09:13
    In any discussion of the use of fiscal policy, we should remember that in the last fifty years, the only two presidents who produced balanced budgets were Clinton and Obama. They added to the deficit because of the economy they inherited, but they came to balanced budgets. Similarly, in mentioning the need to increase taxes after the use of fiscal policy, we should also remember that part of the problem with recent budgets were due to the massive tax decreases for the wealthy and big corporations that have occurred under all Republican administrations since Reagan. All of this is just to say that sane fiscal is a possibility even if it is a rarity.
    • CM
      C M.
      14 May 2020 @ 15:30
      Christine G, Your comment is a textbook delusional interpretation of reality: Clinton did indeed have four years of budget surpluses (for a minuscule 1% surplus over his 8 years in office), but only due to (a) a tech bubble options cap gains windfall and (b) a Republican-controlled congress that constrained his spending for a period of time. Obama produced budget DEFICITS in EACH AND EVERY YEAR of his administration. Therefore, your Clinton comment conflates cause and effect, and your Obama comment is a pure falsehood. Also, Carter, LBJ, JFK, Truman all produced budget deficits over their respective administrations. Let us not play fast and loose with facts. Notwithstanding your prevarication/blatant lie, no U.S. president will ever run a budget surplus while a printing press remains at the ready, especially since U.S. citizens--in particular those suckling from the Federal government's teat--will never vote for anyone who advocates fiscal sanity. Thus, the federal government will continue to pick people's pocket through money printing, which will ultimately produce the same outcome as it has for all of recorded human history.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 May 2020 @ 16:11
      Republicans...Democrats..... they are broadly the same. Government never shrinks and while so many politicians talk about controlling the cost of government, very few actually seeks to achieve it. I agree with C.M comments. Your comment is just another politically biased expression that we are seeing a little too much of on this channel now.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      14 May 2020 @ 16:49
      CM Much of monetary and fiscal policy has supported the wealthy and large corporations which have often used these programs for things like buying back stocks and bonuses and not for investments. I think they have been the big winners in sucking off the government teat. I think your comment is pure business -good/ government-bad silliness. There are problems that can only be solved by business and there are problems that can only be solved or helped by government. Chemical companies will never solve issues of water or air pollution that they often cause; oil companies will never solve issues of climate change that they contribute to; cigarette companies will never solve issues of lung cancer. All of those examples have real financial costs which do not show up on the balance sheets of those industries but are carried by individuals (disproportionately poor individuals), medical systems and ultimately public systems. My point was not Democrat/good and Republican/bad, though I think much of recent history can be seen that way. It is more that good fiscal policy is possible. That does not always mean balanced budgets but it can in some environments. https://imgur.com/r/interestingasfuck/xhYCQh4?fbclid=IwAR0zOgqzs2YpFoGmEbt2fJF4VAWgNtaxEZ84b8sKDwogzg5pbCkc7rOkco8
    • MT
      Mike T.
      14 May 2020 @ 20:13
      Democrats or Republicans. Republicans or Democrats round and round we go. I am so bored with US politics.
    • AK
      Anthony K.
      15 May 2020 @ 16:56
      Look I can lay out a litany of crooked and truly awful things your sighted hero's did to match anything you throw out on the right wing side, the difference being is that I am almost certain I would agree with all those things you bring up... so in the end you can point your finger however you like but it all comes back to a corrupt system that both parties and your hand picked false idols embraced and continued usurp power and profit for themselves at the behest of everyone who doesnt know the secret handshake....
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      15 May 2020 @ 22:21
      Yes, this is argument is very easy to destroy. For the simpletons out there, expanding the role of government enables inefficiency and feeds cronyism. That only took me 1 sentence. The next question, which we know the answer to, is "Who supports expanding the role of government?" There's your problem. School's out. Now send me a bitcoin since you learned more in my comment than in 75% of the videos around here.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    14 May 2020 @ 16:27
    Second video where Princes of the Yen is mentioned. I'd be glad to see an interview with Prof Richard Werner, the man behind the documentary and the book.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      14 May 2020 @ 16:51
      Look out for Hugh Hendry interviewing Richard Werner next week. The fun has only just begun.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      15 May 2020 @ 22:15
      Great stuff. I don't think Werner needs an escape plan to St Bart's, though ...
  • AK
    Ado K.
    14 May 2020 @ 22:36
    I would like to interview Keynes to, my question to him would be how he managed to f children even after his death?
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      14 May 2020 @ 22:44
      Highly underrated comment. Sounds like something Saifedean Ammous would have said.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      14 May 2020 @ 22:47
      hilarious haha
    • JH
      Jacob H.
      14 May 2020 @ 23:48
      Best comment ever. /Thread
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      15 May 2020 @ 22:12
      Epstein's swishy long lost uncle
  • DS
    Dan S.
    15 May 2020 @ 19:43
    Central Banks enable unwise resource use. The bubbles have gotten bigger and crashes more damaging. The middle class in America is disappearing.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    15 May 2020 @ 18:30
    Thanks for sharing insight from your life
  • CJ
    Charles J.
    15 May 2020 @ 17:46
    This conversation is such a breath of fresh air.
  • TK
    Thomas K.
    15 May 2020 @ 16:18
    Great interview with Walter's brother, William.
  • DF
    David F.
    15 May 2020 @ 11:39
    Truly a gracious man. A model of constructive consensus finding. The way forward depends on wisdom like this.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    15 May 2020 @ 11:11
    Great interview, excellent interviewer and interviewee
  • SG
    Sven G.
    15 May 2020 @ 10:19
    Please bring William out of "semi-retirement" to run all central banks! The incumbents clearly have lost the plot!
  • TC
    Tom C.
    15 May 2020 @ 09:38
    Imho, that concept of mandated loan amounts is happening as we speak in uk. The bounce back loans of up to 25k per corporate applicant is approved and paid with money in account in less than 4 days without the provision of any accounts or check on balance sheets or cash flow. Banks are mandated to offer, everyone applies - especially those most underwater, and it's a way to boost cash flow in an attempt to stave off crisis and hopefully stimulate future. Prob is loans will never be repaid. People taking it and buying crypto in hope they get returns (either capital or de-fi interest) to cover principal and interest!
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    15 May 2020 @ 07:07
    Good interview Brent.
  • IW
    Ian W.
    15 May 2020 @ 05:20
    Fantastic interview. This has been the best one of the week by far. Great humbleness and clear-headed analysis on both sides.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    15 May 2020 @ 04:59
    Thank you - quality interview. Intelligent and humble.
  • SB
    Steve B.
    15 May 2020 @ 04:48
    Fantastic interview. Invaluable perspective from William White who not only has immense intellectual powers, but the practical experience to validate or invalidate his theory. I love the book recommendations. Lebrecths book in some ways sounds similar to the philosophy of Rene Girard. Scapegoating as a recurring favored pastime.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    15 May 2020 @ 03:57
    What a privilege. Thank you.
  • RD
    RP D.
    15 May 2020 @ 03:40
    Thanks to you William and Brent. Beautiful humble honest content. 10/10
  • PB
    Paul B.
    15 May 2020 @ 03:39
    Currency Wars and Trade Wars expected to heat up going forward..It's every Country for itself and changing alliance
  • JR
    Jeremy R.
    15 May 2020 @ 02:45
    I'd love to hear Jeff Snider's running commentary on this interview, given how highly critical he's been of monetary authorities and central bankers in response to the crisis.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    15 May 2020 @ 02:11
    absolutely brilliant.
  • FA
    Frank A.
    15 May 2020 @ 01:33
    Great Interview, love to hear Bill's views.............good job by Brent also..
  • MC
    Michael C.
    15 May 2020 @ 00:43
    Great interview, thanks guys!
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    14 May 2020 @ 22:43
    Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) and escape these Keynesian parasites making Cantillionaires and ripping off everyone else.
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    14 May 2020 @ 22:17
    That was a really awesome interview that helped inform my framework for what's happening. Also, now I've discovered the BIS website. What a treasure trove! Thanks!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    14 May 2020 @ 21:54
    I really like Brent Johnson. He must be a busy guy but he always gets back to people who ask him questions on twitter, including me.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    14 May 2020 @ 21:36
    What he said towards the end about central banks picking up the slack when others were shrinking demand, I think ties in nicely with what Koo said about everyone trying to repair their balance sheets, in itself good, but producing the wrong outcome...
  • TL
    Tom L.
    14 May 2020 @ 20:15
    Very informative thanks for the unique perspective.
  • WM
    Will M.
    14 May 2020 @ 19:52
    Just watched The Princes of the Yen on youtube as mentioned below. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY&feature=youtu.be I strongly commend it to all RV subscribers. As is usual of course, you won't be happy after watching it.....
  • JD
    James D.
    14 May 2020 @ 19:38
    Absolutely wonderful interview. I could listen to these two all day. I must say that I agree with Dr. White's arguments. Both gentlemen came across as highly intelligent and thoughtful. Monetary policy will not work forever mixed with a little central bank "inside baseball." Great stuff; please utilize Brent Johnson more. Thank you!!!
  • CM
    Chris M.
    14 May 2020 @ 19:28
    really great interview! but he probably got played with the speech. was likely an act to cut him off at the head.
  • je
    james e.
    14 May 2020 @ 18:41
    Great interview by BJ and BW is a treasure. Another win for RVTV viewers. Thank you.
  • MJ
    MIGUEL J.
    14 May 2020 @ 18:36
    Great conversation and get the insights with all the historical perspective and by someone that is thinking about and been part of the CB for decades is a great privilege. Thanks!
  • MF
    Max F.
    14 May 2020 @ 17:52
    This has been my favorite interview on RV so far. The parallels between William White and Austrian Insights are amazing: intertemporal imbalances, liquidation/insolvency is a good thing , etc.
  • JK
    John K.
    14 May 2020 @ 17:36
    Thanks. Excellent.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    14 May 2020 @ 17:06
    I love this guy. The degree of hubris and certitude that central bankers exhibit just takes ones breath away. Masters of an incredibly complex eco-environment? Our economic system was not meant to be exhaustively studied, tweaked, nudged, tempered and indulged to an ideal outcome. At the heart of our problem is a basic distrust of everyday people making everyday decisions.
  • DJ
    Dalibor J.
    14 May 2020 @ 16:52
    RV is the future. Impressed by the quality of the interviews.
  • PV
    Peter V.
    14 May 2020 @ 16:40
    RealVision is rolling with one great interview after another.
  • WM
    Will M.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:40
    William White is a great example of a level headed, experienced banker who has understood the trajectory we were on for over 20 years. Similar in stature to Peter Warburton. Very good discussion.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 May 2020 @ 16:17
      I want to add, White's comments at the end about when things get rough the public will seek to blame someone they can blame for the problems. And of course there will be plenty of politicians and media biased hacks who will jump on this bandwagon with great vigor. What I am looking for from RVT is the ability to profit from these near term trends and less whether it was Trump's fault, or China's fault.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    14 May 2020 @ 16:16
    Instead of the shorthand "CB" for Central Bank, it should be renamed to "CBD" or "Collection of Bad Decisions". This interview only underscores my belief that AMP (Algorithmic Monetary Policy) is way better than LMP (Legacy Monetary Policy). Where policy can be enforced out of the reach of rationalizing central bankers, seems the only way forward.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:23
    Very likeable and clear guy. Also, he answered the questions I had on the BIS and no one could answer for years and years.
  • so
    steven o.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:10
    I appreciate Mr. White's teddy bears on his shelf. Us true bears all keep a mascot in their office.
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    14 May 2020 @ 13:53
    VERY NICIE DISCUSSION
  • EK
    Edward K.
    14 May 2020 @ 13:36
    Speaking of "false belief" is there any justification for the core central bank(s) tenet of "The Wealth Effect"?
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    14 May 2020 @ 13:05
    Level headed, sensible discussion. Thanks RV!.
  • DV
    Didier V.
    14 May 2020 @ 12:05
    Great interview.
  • JF
    Jim F.
    14 May 2020 @ 12:03
    great interview!! super thx
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    14 May 2020 @ 11:30
    Thank you for a great discussion. We are always back to the ancient question: will the human ego beat God/Nature this time? We will soon find out..
  • HS
    Hendrik S.
    14 May 2020 @ 09:27
    Really really appreciate William White, BUT it was a bit more of the same. In retrospect maybe questions could have been more about other stuff than the stuff found in pieces like Digging the hole deeper. Anyhow, still worth my time!
  • DO
    Daryl O.
    14 May 2020 @ 07:02
    Really enjoyed this. An interesting interview.
  • BD
    Barry D.
    14 May 2020 @ 06:31
    Really interesting discussion. The title could have read: "The last gasps of fiat currencies"!