The Unwinding: Gold, The Credit Cycle, and the Monetary System

Published on
August 20th, 2020
Duration
61 minutes


The Unwinding: Gold, The Credit Cycle, and the Monetary System

The Interview ·
Featuring Dan Oliver Jr. and Simon Mikhailovich

Published on: August 20th, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path." Filmed on August 18, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • SB
    Stewart B.
    24 August 2020 @ 17:59
    Good interview. A few points to add. Historically the problems with inflation are political. Inflation hollows out the poor. The wealthy have real assets which maintain value and the poor have wages which are sticky. After a period of even mild inflation, the wealthy will typically be just as wealthy but the poor will be destitute. The two examples of inflation in France in the 1700s set the stage for the French Revolution and Napoleon. The Weimar hyperinflation sowed the seeds for the Nazi party and Hitler. Arguably Japan's burning of their currency and debasement in the 1930s made them keen for war in 1940s. Wise scholars have realised that the printing press should not be used to solve political problems. Free money for politicians is the most addictive substance known to man. The problem is, once you start using the printing press to solve political problems, it is impossible to stop. Takahashi Korekiyo was famous for misusing the Japanese printing press in the 1930s. He was assassinated, not for destroying the lives of the poor, but for threatening to stop burning the Yen! No politician will stand back and allow their source of funding to be turned off. The Federal Reserve Act, and similar ECB policy was explicitly written to disallow using the printing press for these problems. They knew once started it can't be stopped. They also knew that it leads to political extremism. However the Federal Reserve and ECB have disregarded (and intentionally changed the meaning of) this caveats. This is disgusting. A mistake I've often made is to assume that once a government or central bank appears to run out of ammunition that they will stop and sit on their hands. Eg it was tempting to conclude that once rates reached the lower bound, that central bankers would quietly admit defeat and pull their heads in. No, their policies became more and more invasive. So, here is where I disagree with Oliver and Mikhailovich. Once the fruits of debasement are seen in inflation, the central bankers and government will not apologies and admit their failing. They will double down. They will take what is yours, including your physical gold and ETFS. And if you don't like it, you'll get a bullet in your head. And in this future post-debasement politically fraught world, physical gold and silver want be suitable for transactions. Libertarianism will be dead, just as you will be if you dare try to protect yourself from the politicians. IMHO money would be better spent on moving you and your family outside Europe/US (perhaps Carribean? South America? Switzerland?) rather than giving our future politicians things to expropriate at the barrel of a gun.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      24 August 2020 @ 18:36
      ^ My post above. Should have read: "in this future post-debasement politically fraught world, physical gold and silver WON'T be suitable for transactions" That is, I suspect it will be very unlikely that your local 711 or food vendor will accept physical silver or gold. It is not easily divisible to begin with. Remember, this will still be a world with surveillance, smart phones and television. If the government bans it, (and why wouldn't they?) people will mostly choose not to hold or accept physical gold and silver. Best you can hope for is they will force you to sell it to them at say $1000 and $15 /oz respectively, or to just die in your sleep. The past 100,000 years of humanity has almost entirely been anarchic, feudal or totalitarian. The past 400 years of 'Western (Lockean) Liberal Democratic Capitalism' is likely just an odd blip. It is much more likely we will return to a totalitarian state. Technology, along with our innate hunger for power, status and paternalism will make that a near certainty.
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 September 2020 @ 19:03
      Good points Stewart B. I own both metals but held outside the banking system and outside country of residence. Gold will not be a medium of exchange but silver could be although more between individuals rather than at a 711. My hope is the UK or the USA will be the last to adopt the bullet in the head tactic but frankly if it gets to that the world may not be a place worth living in anyway, at least for us retirees. I am contemplating the foreign living options but only serious millionaires will escape to Switzerland. If you have less than 5 million liquid assets you are going to have to think about Costa Rica or Paraguay etc. A terrible thought that we could take a step backwards to a pre WW2 era as far as freedoms are concerned.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    4 September 2020 @ 08:30
    Germany/Weimar was not the end; they did not disappear and they came back? (Dan Oliver) Is that path what we are destined to go through in this unwinding? Said a bit casually in my opinion - this would be an awful reality to have to go through.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    4 September 2020 @ 08:25
    Loved Simon's summary of the financial industry - no one is interested in the investors returns. As long as inflation causes capital gains and the 2/20 rate leads to players profits and bonuses - its easy! This is the sad reality of the industry and having been a part of it from some time, I have seen this first hand. The emphasis is usually on what can you sell to get fees; not what works for the investor. Caveat Emptor like nothing else.
  • WM
    Will M.
    30 August 2020 @ 14:25
    A great discussion by two very well versed students of monetary history. I remain amazed at the number of people who believe it’s all different this time vs history. The USA has held things together financially since WW2, that is coming to an end. Obvious to me!
  • FC
    Frederick C.
    20 August 2020 @ 12:55
    Such a frustrating conversation... on the one hand, I’m wholly sympathetic to the whole thread of sound money and Austrian micro-economics... on the other hand, this is just a long rant, factless and useless to portfolio allocation or trading... Simon asks us to make our own assessment, so here’s mine: 1) Japan has been printing reserves for 20 years and no catastrophe has happened, ; 2) I buy Mike Green’s argument about passive flow, which means more vol spikes AND multiple expansions as long as there are positive flows into financial markets... furthermore, as boomers die they leave inheritances to their millenial kids, who knows how that money is going to flow? 3) if you read Peter Zeihan and George Friedman, there is close to a zero probability of China and the US coming together for a new Bretton Woods arrangement, unless China suffers a massive internal revolution (ThreeGorges dam flood triggered?)... so, net net, yes there’s a scenario of complete financial system collapse, and yes there’s a scenario of kick-the-can down the road for several decades... that’s why it’s called a complex system, we just don’t know
    • JM
      John M.
      20 August 2020 @ 16:48
      Debt growing faster than the economy, interest rates at all time lows, social chaos, poor political leadership, trillions $s wasted on pointless wars & record wealth inequality. Not just a 'complex system' but a highly unstable one. The Titanic did not sink instantly but 2hrs and 40 minutes later.....
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      20 August 2020 @ 17:26
      I'm with you. It's like this is going to be a binary outcome. Either they manage through it and we end up financially like Japan (the good outcome), or financially like Argentina (bad outcome). Or the system craters, we go through a period of bad depression, chaos, etc, and we all re-build. The Zeihan and Friedman books are both very good.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:12
      Japan isnt the holder of the global reserve currency. Japan are massive savers. Entirely different scenario. To combine your scenarios are more probable., They kick the can down the road for as long as they can UNTIL complete system collapse..
    • CR
      Craig R.
      20 August 2020 @ 23:11
      I agree that Japan is not a guide to the current situation for the USA. They are a large player but not the prime mover. There was no euro yen market that underpinned global commerce. Not comparable in anyway. Movements in the yen did not produce extremely strong secondary effects around the world in anywhere the scale that movements in the USD do.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      21 August 2020 @ 16:39
      Yikes, your best argument is "Japan has done it for a long time so no problem?". The Japanese Govt owns 25% of the Nikkei, for chrissakes. Their demographics are scary as hell, top heavy with older non-working people versus young. You're just watching a slow-motion train wreck, it doesn't change the fact the train plunges off the bridge. I know kick-the-can is a comforting and attractive mental structure. As humans, we hate change, as much as we claim we love "innovation". I think we're nearing the turning point only because we have been doing these things for so long -- with no apparent penalty. The length of time you maintain a ponzi doesn't ensure its future existence. Its like saying Bernie Madoff's 17-plus year ponzi is no problem, because he avoided its implosion for so long. As we know now, that didn't lend to its longevity.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      22 August 2020 @ 09:14
      Thank you Frederick C. for seeing through this BS. Sorry to be harsh but I knew I was in for amateur hour when Simon implied that we are likely to see a collapse in 2020 because markets collapsed in 1920, 1820 and 1720. This piece is full of confirmation bias and selective use of data. Of course the markets will eventually collapse, but that is not saying anything more than we all die. These guys repeatedly make the fundamental error of assuming that they can predict emergent properties from initial conditions. Haven't they noticed that they have been wrong about gold and inflation for 30 years? While they might be right eventually, it will only be accidentally so. I guess even broken clocks can be right twice a day. More troubling is the prospect that it will be deflation, not inflation, that brings about the calamity they so fear.
    • WM
      Will M.
      30 August 2020 @ 13:41
      Steve, bit of a condescending comment about “amateur hour”, so you are not a gold or an economic history fan, fair enough. I didn’t hear Simon say that because of past collapses in the something 20s that this meant 2020 was THE year. However it is a great co-incidence isn’t it?
  • JT
    John T.
    21 August 2020 @ 21:01
    Some of the ideas about gold that are oversimplified: 1. Gold does not keep it's real uninflated value at all times; valuations are driven by cash flows and sentiment just like anything else. 2. Treasuries on the government balance sheet do not suddenly become worthless because the government cannot pay the debt. The interest income reverts to the Treasury already, so you can argue the debt is monetized the moment it gets there. The value of the currency has a lot to do with cash flows between countries, which can change substantially due to policy. Using debt to create asset bubbles and attempt to prop them up can be perpetually deflationary like in Japan. 3. I'm a gold bug myself, but my focus is on the fact that there's a lot of money chasing investments, bonds pay next to nothing, and valuations are very risky in stocks and real estate. That money has to go somewhere, and gold is one of those places. Plus it's becoming a critical asset for many central banks in a world that sees increasing weaponization of the dollar. I believe this trend will last a decade like it did in the 2000's.
    • DO
      DIOGO O.
      22 August 2020 @ 11:31
      Excellent Points. However, I dont think it will last a decade, because the elephant in the room now is Bitcoin. The big fight going forward will be between theses two last ''highlanders''... I bet it is better to bet on both! Cheers budy!
    • JM
      John M.
      24 August 2020 @ 04:26
      Agree. The macro environment is as good as it gets for gold.
    • WM
      Will M.
      30 August 2020 @ 13:13
      Good points. I own gold and silver and was very septic all of Bitcoin during and after its first run up and crash. However, I am going to dip my toe into BitCoin and Etherium in the next few days.
  • TK
    Travis K.
    20 August 2020 @ 19:04
    The speakers mentioned physical gold several times. In this “unwinding” that they discuss, what do the implications differ between physical gold and paper gold?
    • ab
      alfred b.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:06
      There is insufficient gold/ silver for all the paper issued. If everybody asks for delivery then the first will receive delivery. Who do you want to be, the person with the metal or the person with the paper, if the music stops? Too much manipulation of the paper which means that if everybody requests the physical, delivery there will not be enough. Use PSLV, AAAU, rather then COMEX.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      21 August 2020 @ 02:15
      And it’s stored in 100oz bars so in order to be able to physically take delivery, you need to be one of the big boys. Retail investors aren’t even in the queue, let alone at the back of it. Be careful.
    • WM
      Will M.
      30 August 2020 @ 13:03
      Yes Alfred nailed it. I have my 1 kilo bars split between Switzerland and Cayman. Coins will be next purchase.
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    20 August 2020 @ 14:09
    Dan Oliver Jr is unabashedly political. He cannot discuss markets, history, and finance without peppering partisan politics references in his comments. He doesn't just want to understand the game, he wants to shape it according to his needs. I prefer Raoul, Julian, other commentary that just helps you understand how to play the existing game.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      20 August 2020 @ 16:51
      I read Dan's comment differently . . . . "a pox on both houses"
    • BD
      Bruce D.
      23 August 2020 @ 22:04
      Dan called a spade a spade, that’s all......it’s impossible to be non-political when you understand how the game is played, and manipulated. If the truth hurts, so be it.
    • WM
      Will M.
      30 August 2020 @ 13:00
      Absolute nonsense Antonio. Dan’s points are about political and financial mismanagement in general. He is not pushing any one party as “ savior” but simply highlighting the stream of policy errors that has occurred over the decades.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    20 August 2020 @ 09:55
    Great discussion. I think Dan Oliver is one of the best thinkers in the gold space when relating it to the long term macro implications. I read as much of his stuff as I can, but he doesn’t publish often. For those interested he does occasionally publish articles on his myrmikan.com site.
    • SP
      Sebastian P.
      20 August 2020 @ 12:00
      Thank you for sharing the link that’s a fantastic ‘treasure box’
    • MB
      Martin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 20:27
      Grab his book on monetary history ‘Golden Tears’. It’s excellent... and very well written.
  • MB
    Martin B.
    28 August 2020 @ 19:43
    Was that the ghost of deceased monetary systems entering the room with Dan at 56:23?
    • MB
      Martin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 20:16
      Correction. At 4:08. (56:23 remaining).
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    21 August 2020 @ 12:14
    A point also to make. As far as one can acess data, the USA has 8.134 tonnes of Gold in reserves. China for example has aroung 2000. So when gold goes, lets say, to $20.000, doesn't the reserves also increase??
    • MB
      Martin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 20:11
      If you believe either of those ‘official’ figures for bullion reserves... I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. (Hint: the truth is that one figure is grossly exaggerated, while the other is grossly underestimated e.g. look at the analysis done on China especially by ‘Koos Jansen’ and a Ronan Manly).
  • JK
    John K.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:20
    Just wanna say fuck you for that unnecessary dig on non Europeans being uneducated lol.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      21 August 2020 @ 18:08
      What are you doing? Is it "Fuck you" or is it "lol"? Are you serious or are you joking?
    • MB
      Martin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 20:07
      Mr.Oliver specifically referred to the “Africans and South Americans.” Can you share a few of the significant, lasting advances that have been contributed to the advance of our species stemming from the education systems of those two continents? Genuine question.
  • GH
    Gloria H.
    24 August 2020 @ 06:25
    Sorry, they lost me at the mention of “Obama-phones and slums.”
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      24 August 2020 @ 17:29
      Reality denial is part of the leftist thought schema, so don't worry about it.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 August 2020 @ 18:59
      I hate to bring in "woke-ness," but this was an abhorrent remark. RV should have a word with Oliver about this.
    • MB
      Martin B.
      28 August 2020 @ 19:59
      “I hate to bring in woke-ness”... and then proceeds to bring in ‘woke-ness’ (whatever that nonsense is). Looks to me like you relished the opportunity to signal your titanic virtue. Please consider that someone has now had a word with you... just as you fallaciously suggest Mr.Oliver should be admonished.
  • MB
    Michiel B.
    27 August 2020 @ 08:13
    Did you guys know Dan is also on the board of directors of this company called VanGold Mining? It’s worth a look imho.. looks very promising.
  • DL
    Darren L.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:36
    Barrick gold is a rounding error in Buffett's portfolio - not even half of a percent. Also, Buffett is no longer the sole portfolio manager at Berkshire so he might not even of had anything to do with the decision.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      25 August 2020 @ 04:36
      All true but none of it matters for it is perception that is the reality and the perception is, "Hey! Berkshire just bought gold! OH MY GOD!!"
  • FB
    Frank B.
    24 August 2020 @ 20:24
    Nothing really new here for those who have been on RV for a while. Agree with a comment in the hotly debated thread down below that I had an eye roll when it was mentioned that collapses seem to be more likely in the '20s years. And then this "Germany came out of it", wow, maybe he should also read some other parts of history.
  • MB
    Max B.
    20 August 2020 @ 20:41
    Not the correct place but got a couple of things to ask - 1 How do you join the slack channel? 2 Any suggestions on the best trading platforms for trading options (based in the UK)? Thanks
    • AT
      Alun T.
      21 August 2020 @ 07:44
      Download Slack App, RVFans is the group. There is also a link from the recent Insiders Talk session with Julian and Raoul in the comments. Interactive Brokers, also for help with trading try Patrick Cerezna at Big Picture Trading.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      24 August 2020 @ 18:26
      I agree on Interactive Brokers. Best choice of UK options.
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    24 August 2020 @ 18:22
    Such a great chat. Hadn't seen Simon in a while and was missing his creative input. Dan Oliver is always a treat as well. Interesting to see how they read the same people I do (Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning"), I'm sure I'm not the only one here who enjoyed that one.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    21 August 2020 @ 11:22
    One thing I can't find anynone, except Richard Werner, to asnwer: ''Why can't the Central Bank print money and buy ALL THE DEBT OUTSTANDING in the commercial banks balance sheets?'' All of it, household, small, large companies...etc. Commercial banks would have enormous reserves, however, only by LENDING they create money and manke money flow into society increase. For example, if you give 1000 Trillion dollars to a commercial bank, as reserve, and the bank does not lend any money, zero, the inflation is ZERO, in regards to that bank actions. Therefore, Werner's ideias are sensible: 1) Buy all debt in banks balance sheet, ALL OF IT. 2) REGULATE CREDIT CREATION, FOR GOD'S SAKE!!! NO CREDIT FOR SPECULATION, NOR FOR CONSUMERS, ONLY FOR INVESTMENT INTO STUFF THAT INCREASE GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE ECONOMY (real investment) How hard is to understand that??
    • DO
      DIOGO O.
      21 August 2020 @ 11:37
      Take for instance the example of the Mississipi Bubble in 1720s, in France: speculation. Make tha acessment: %of Margin calls to GDP until the blow up in 1929. (margin credit is speculatory credit). Is is not the credit that is directed to investment (factories, ships, etc) that destroy the economy, it is the credit tha only bid up asset prices: speculation credit (margins, etc) and direct consumer credit. Please, study Richard Werner's work.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      24 August 2020 @ 17:36
      Diogo, if the Fed "buys" the debt, it just goes to the lending account at the Fed, they DO NOT have cash reserves. That's why there is no inflation ... primary dealers are also in the way of Fed direct buying of US treasuries. Plus, others don't want to borrow in over leveraged environments, as Koo has said before. Werner is right about nearly all things as far as I can tell, though.
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    24 August 2020 @ 03:00
    I never get tired of these guys. Great commentary and a wonderfully stimulating conversation. A romp through history combined with a lens on today's rigged game.
  • JF
    Jess F.
    20 August 2020 @ 09:08
    I've been unimpressed with the previous interviews this week, but this is a gem. This explains, even for goldbugs, where we are in the cycle and the role Gold will play in preserving one's wealth. Further clarity can be found from Alasdair MacLeod's excellent writings, (goldmoney insights). Well done RV!
    • AW
      Angela W.
      22 August 2020 @ 22:38
      Agree Jess. Keep waiting for RV to please interview Alasdair MacLeod directly.
  • EC
    Earl C.
    22 August 2020 @ 20:59
    What a profound comment by the esteemed & well educated Dan Oliver Jr. that this is not the end, as Germany after the Weimar Republic "had a problem with Hitler & all the rest of it...Germany came out of it" Just 2/3 of the entire Jewish population murdered in cold blood & another approx. 65 million killed in WWII DID NOT COMET OUT OF IT! My RV renewal date was Friday I watched this on Saturday. Looking forward to next year.
  • EC
    Earl C.
    22 August 2020 @ 20:59
    What a profound comment by the esteemed & well educated Dan Oliver Jr. that this is not the end, as Germany after the Weimar Republic "had a problem with Hitler & all the rest of it...Germany came out of it" Just 2/3 of the entire Jewish population murdered in cold blood & another approx. 65 million killed in WWII DID NOT COMET OUT OF IT! My RV renewal date was Friday I watched this on Saturday. Looking forward to next year.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    22 August 2020 @ 20:35
    You need to bring Simon to RV more often. His perspective is way above anyone brough up/educagted in North America
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    21 August 2020 @ 13:13
    Crypto will outperform all assets in the short term. If cryptocurrencies represented political parties Bitcoin (BTC) = Republican/ Liberian types who likes Austrian economics & strong math. Ethereum (ETH) = Democratic / Social views not strong on math but loves science Ripple (XRP) = Independents / Swing voter = rational realist Best bet if to get exposure in all three.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      22 August 2020 @ 05:11
      ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
  • RM
    Russell M.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:27
    Only thing that can save us is new technology increasing productivity to make things cheaper in real terms. For example, someone invents an "autodoc" that you climb into and can be cured of any curable disease or condition. Let's say it costs $1,000. It will save trillions of dollars in medical expenses, one of the biggest expenses the government and consumers face. It will decrease real inequality in medical care.
    • AP
      Ananth P.
      21 August 2020 @ 19:58
      ... and put millions of doctors out of work. So, how do doctors pay for the "autodoc"?
  • sc
    sung c.
    21 August 2020 @ 19:52
    The question was raised with respect to the Weimar Era, why such "highly intelligent" people made such an enormous mistake. The most obvious answer is that intelligence does not equal wisdom, but unthinking masses often follow intelligent people because they can't differntiate between the two.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    20 August 2020 @ 13:06
    Having been a long time physical gold holder I really think that Bitcoin is going to steal gold's lunch
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      20 August 2020 @ 16:59
      Makes sense to have a low, single digit of NAV in BTC.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:09
      space for both
    • LF
      Liam F.
      20 August 2020 @ 21:01
      If everything goes to hell, who will accept BTC?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      21 August 2020 @ 16:33
      That is one analysis I don't see usually -- not that I don't think its true -- more that admitting a digitally scarce asset supplanting physical is hard for a lot of Precious Metals investors to contemplate. Look at the March dip, Bitcoin and Gold fell because they are both store-of-value assets. You sell what you have value in when you get margin-called on the "flyer" you took a bet on. Its an interesting correlation. The only way to know if Bitcoin is supplanting Gold would be relative performance, if more value chases Bitcoin versus Gold on/prior to an upswing, then we'll have our answer.
    • JM
      John M.
      21 August 2020 @ 18:09
      Some folks said the same thing last summer when RV dedicated a week to Bitcoin. In fact they had an ad campaign urging people to sell their gold and buy bitcoin (bad advice). So far the best advice I have heard is to keep a small speculative bitcoin holding because it could go up very sharply.
  • RG
    Rob G.
    20 August 2020 @ 09:33
    Great interview. What happens to residential property if inflation kicks in a meaningful way?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      21 August 2020 @ 17:01
      It goes up. Own real assets during inflationary times.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:57
    Germany as a country survived the Weimar era, but many families didn't. To discount that experience as "they survived" is not appreciating the pain the citizens went through for decades in recovering from WWI and the start of government money printing to pay reparations.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:03
    Good commonsense anlaysis!
  • MB
    Michael B.
    21 August 2020 @ 10:45
    As this is so good I would recommend making this free in a few weeks. The content is so valuable that it needs to get out. Perhaps cut it down to 20 minutes with the most important points.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    21 August 2020 @ 06:35
    Brilliant discussion Dan and Simon. Thank you. This should be textbook viewing for any investor these days. The insights of Simon on the political environment (Vic for example) is concerning considering his experience. One to watch again for sure. The hopeful tone near the end is interesting. Great video RV.
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    21 August 2020 @ 04:11
    damn, what an interview!
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    21 August 2020 @ 03:50
    Great conversation. Certainly worth being interviewed separately also so they can let their thinking run in a more linear line. Case for gold is clear!
  • NI
    Nate I.
    21 August 2020 @ 03:30
    Excellent. Such a truth bomb that people won't find anywhere but RV. Many many thanks to both of you. Hope you'll both be back on RV frequently.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    21 August 2020 @ 01:26
    Outstanding conversation!
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    21 August 2020 @ 01:04
    Why so dismissive of Buffett?
  • BG
    Brian G.
    21 August 2020 @ 00:22
    "you would think it's some unsophisticated South American or African Country" .. really!!!
  • FB
    Fred B.
    20 August 2020 @ 17:01
    Dan and Simon, Thanks for an excellent and insightful discussion! Dan- I would like to read more about John Law and the Mississippi Bubble, can you recommend the best book that covers it? Thank you. Fred
    • CM
      C M.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:19
      Yes, see Dan's forthcoming book!!
    • OC
      O C.
      20 August 2020 @ 23:54
      The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson
  • AK
    Andreas K.
    20 August 2020 @ 22:31
    crazy good interview
  • BK
    Brigitte K.
    20 August 2020 @ 21:45
    Thank you for providing such an excellent interview. And grateful for growing up around a father who could (well, still can) passionately speak about Hayek, von Mises, etc.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    20 August 2020 @ 21:03
    These guys get it and the input they gave is some of the best I've ever heard on real vision. New investors would do well to take care of their input at a high-level, read or listen to the fourth turning, and understand WHY gold is "going up" Thanks you guys, I was very impressed by this interview, and I've seen the both of you b4. The first and last investments you ever make should be in your own education.
  • BS
    Boris S.
    20 August 2020 @ 15:28
    This guy literally contradicted R. Werner at 24min forward
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:50
      ... as opposed to figuratively contradicted...? ;)
  • ab
    alfred b.
    20 August 2020 @ 20:13
    World class discussion
  • SW
    Scott W.
    20 August 2020 @ 18:21
    That quantitative easing occurred in 33 AD (well documented by Joseph Malchow among others) speaks to the validity of Dan's assertion that financial circumstances witnessed today have occurred repeatedly (more or less) throughout history.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      20 August 2020 @ 20:07
      FIAT has NEVER survived in long term history.
  • je
    james e.
    20 August 2020 @ 19:29
    Excellent! Simon is a master with such a great perspective having come from the Soviet Union. Don was terrific and would love to see him back to talk about mining companies. Thank you, RV, for continuing to rent us your Rolodex. You have introduced and given us access to The master class of financial thinkers.
  • LX
    Lai X.
    20 August 2020 @ 19:24
    I was excited to see Simon’s face on the thumbnail because I enjoyed his last interview. But I think this dialogue would be a lot better if each of them were interviewed separately to narrate their thoughts from beginning to end instead we are left with a superficial summary of a list of the macro problems I think most people who watch real vision already know.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    20 August 2020 @ 18:02
    I typically don't reiterate comment below, but I'll make this exception. Superb! Confirms my upgrade from Essential to Plus. Thank you gentlemen!
  • ES
    Edward S.
    20 August 2020 @ 17:48
    Well worth the time. Dan's description of how the fed puts liquidity into the system was a great explanation. I would say it was "Lacy Hunt Lite." The flow of the conversation with these two was so enjoyable. They were having a conversation, not an interview. Excellent. Long RV.
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    20 August 2020 @ 14:58
    So this is the question I am asking myself And really need help with : 1) once the bubble burst, will we have deflationary shock? Is the crater too big to fill with fresh printed money, or we print and go straight to inflation? The best explanation I could find provided By Dr Lacy Hunt, till Fed prints money and directly gives it to the people It is deflation, not inflation. In such case solvency crisis and deflationary bust is in play, gold might go down in nominal term And would be a great buy, but holding dollars makes sense 2) physical gold, preferably stored outside USA is the safety bet Gold miners is the way to profit from the mess, now everyone is talking about safe jurisdictions , but is USA / Canada really that safe with all upcoming political and civil unrest ? Gold mine confiscation as a matter of national security or executive taxation will make them potentially bad investment? It would be horrible to be right about your investment and still lose money
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    20 August 2020 @ 13:12
    Is that Keynes leaving at 04:08?
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    20 August 2020 @ 11:55
    This hour long money and economics history lesson should be compulsory viewing for every school child the world over! Better still, the American, British, EU and other democratic governments should ask Dan and Simon to put together a one year syllabus (naturally based on Austrian economics and sound money) for teenage school children to study alongside maths, english and science to make sure that when eventually the inevitable system collapse and or reset arrives, future generations will know why it happened and ensure there is no repetition. Another priceless video to add to the week's excellent series. Thank you RV.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    20 August 2020 @ 11:49
    Money printing only creates debasemente of the currency if: %Increase in money supply >>> % increase in production capacity of goods and services Please, again, Austrian Economics needs to reinvent itself at the new light brought to us by prof. Richard Werner However, excelent interview!
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    20 August 2020 @ 11:34
    Very good.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    20 August 2020 @ 11:16
    Great exchange of views: the monetary system 'goat path' -- nicely put!
  • MB
    Michael B.
    20 August 2020 @ 10:47
    I loved this discussion. They covered a number of issues that many of us may never have considered. I like hearing different opinions being expressed even if I agree with or don't like them. Some points are scary but these two guys are willing to talk of major potential risks facing us.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    20 August 2020 @ 09:56
    very useful perspective! Thanks It would be very interesting to have them dissect the opportunities and risks created by the liquidity mismatch in gold etf's
  • SS
    Steven S.
    20 August 2020 @ 08:54
    superb. This is a main reason for an RV subscription
  • NE
    Nathan E.
    20 August 2020 @ 08:49
    Fascinating but don’t watch close to bedtime...yikes
  • VD
    Vishal D.
    20 August 2020 @ 07:03
    perfect discussion
  • JW
    Jay W.
    20 August 2020 @ 06:18
    Love these types of discussions.