Comments
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PGAs an aside the best meat/ steaks are in South Africa! haha (from an Aussie)
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JBAwesome.....Every guest with Jim Is just fantastic.....More Jim Grant is most welcome....Ah RV you’ve done it again....
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PDGee 522 votes for, 13 against. RV is the last place I'd expect to find group think.....
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WSLuuuuv the tie and bow tie of both...cows and orange on blue!!!
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RDBeautiful, just beautiful.
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SNEnjoyable interview. I love Jim Grant and his ability to cut to the chase. There were a few parts that raised my eyebrows... Shale oil potential is largely confined to the United States and that his group has calculated the true size of that potential resource as being much smaller than what everyone thinks..? As a professional geoscientist currently participating in this industry, I can say that the first part is almost certainly not true in the long run, and the second part is simply a guess/estimate that must necessarily put values on many complicated variables that have a very large uncertainty on them at this time. The second point was that Germany is producing more CO2 emissions now than in 2010? I was surprised to hear that and tried to find some evidence for this but could not. If anyone can point me to this data I would love to see it. We'll see if it plays out so bullishly for commodities... I'm skeptical it will be that easy.
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DHGreat as usual. Loved it.
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JMThere are only a few people in the English speaking world that can interview like this. Glorious. Content is Grade A but seems bent on some extreme outcomes that I feel should be at least counter-argued by the discussion in this comments section. On the actual content, I would only add that I think the Fed is well aware of high-powered money risk they have created and the fact that wages in China are WAY up from a few years ago. Its likely that we'll see continuous rate hikes and fiscal stimulus (to offset the rate hike neg effects) in the US such that we get to nominal growth of 5% and 3% inflation. The dollar index will be way up in that environment as the US will be attracting a lot of capital. That hurts EMs - the primary demand source for commodities. If oil goes to $100 in concert...that hurts EMs (inc China) very badly (much worse than US obviously). I think we need to tap the brakes on the super-cycle theory here and ponder the reaction function of the authorities in US plus the negative effects of EM demand destruction.
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MAOne of my favourites - thank you!
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SSso happy Jim has been given this platform - but let's get him to interview someone with opposing views- like Charlie Lee of LTC or Mark W Yusko - or both!
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DDVery much enjoyed this. As someone who has made his living almost exclusively in the commodities market over the past 25 years, I know how important it is to always dig deeper and challenge the conventional wisdom of how everything is different this time. Doesn't make you the first invite to a cocktail party, have to get used to being professionally lonely, have the patience of a saint but it sure is fun/rewarding. Always enthused to learn from others with the same passion.
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TPThumbs up for contribution. Thumbs down for disagreeing.
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CSWith regard to the Uranium story, one of the cautions I perceive is geopolitical. China and the US, and Russia for that matter, are antagonistic. Resources can be withheld. Much uranium production occurs in north America and Australia. Western miners could be seized or restricted in their operation in Kazahkstan, affecting the value of that company. Miners locally could be restricted from selling material to 'enemy' nations. Prices locally could be capped. Same for rare earths which China controls presently. So a material involved in energy and weaponary, could be a sensitive one. So be careful if tempted to invest 50% of your savings into uranium. generallypolitical intervention even nationalisation.
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ADThe comments on Germany's green revolution are a real surprise. How I remember the NYT articles praising the German way of setting the goal, implementing their omnipotent engineering skills and cutting through the bureaucracy to accomplish the deed === Double the cost of electricity and higher CO2 emissions. I shouldn't forget to mention German friends of mine bemoaning the unsightly use of limited land for solar panels and wind mills. What a great interview.
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ACGreat Stuff ! Just had attended a geological talk here about prospects of shale production in Thailand. Close to “0% chance” seems to be the answer. Just the wrong type of shale. I have already loaded up on offshore drillers and support vessels.
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MLthis guy was conceived at a refinery. no wonder he knows oil & gas so well!
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VPWell, I've gone about half way into this interview but am already having some issues with it. First Brent was $70 back in January and $65 around the date of this publication. Ok, let's not quibble about $5 but this guy is bullsh*tting and Grant doesn't know unless the interview took place near the end of JANUARY??? What's up with that? Thought we've complained enough about late publications! Also and more importantly, the "normal" market for crude is in fact "backwardated", Leigh calls this unusual. Yes it now and reasonably flat/backwardated given the element of oil reduction in storage etc...The truth is when crude is in contango, it simply means there's heavy selling pressure in spot due to excessive supply and lack of storage. I'd probably pay the premium as supply gets stored thru other methods, if I was that bullish on crude. Commercials back in early 2016 were selling back months at a premium then dumping spot physical to unload over production. I'm not an Energy expert but Leigh looks a bit worn down and wouldn't leave a dime with him. The first 15 years of my career dating back from 1974 where my desk was the most voluminous on NYMEX and remember a few things from those days. What I do recall vividly are guys that looked like Leigh after trading all day. I do know some guys who've developed derivatives and storage options to perhaps address oversupply but I see nothing here unless we have an inflation spike of which Oil can trigger for sure. So, I certainly wouldn't short it but wouldn't buy it either! Our New FED chairman may just cut off any out of control inflation issue or Trump might just trigger more recession risk following day after day GDP now changes in forecasts, lol. On the other hand, a break much lower in USD could also spike oil! Somewhat disappointed with the interview especially with some old talking points about Shale/Drilling and all the BS. Nothing really new. Sorry :(
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CBJoel Salatin would be proud.
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AASimply phenomenal. This was a great big-idea conversation.
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JH"Sing me a song Leigh" Ha, love it. Thanks for the interview guys!
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RMGrant is a class act. Don't know how any Millennial will ever replace him, ha!
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ROThere was a real vision interview more than a year ago (can't remember exactly), where the analyst noted that there were very large and easy to recover copper deposits in an area of Africa, but with the price being somewhat low that there was not much interest in trying to turn this area into a producing field. If copper prices double how long would it take production to increase enough to bring the copper price back down? What ever happened to the idea of nat gas powered trucks and cars? If nat gas is so plentiful why have we not seen a conversion of transportation trucks to nat gas? MSA had a recent report suggesting that grain commodities may improve later this year. The big investment question is: Will commodity stock behave like the rest of the stock market in a sell off or will they follow their commodity price up?
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PBThanks a lot for the fantastic interview Jim & Leigh!
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MGHmm interesting guest, Jim Grant doesn’t seem at his best though. Didn’t extract much details on nat gas or uranium discussion, just jumped ahead and changed topics on too many occasions.
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mlWhat a great interview! Please have Leigh back periodically.
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VSThis issue of technology increasing supply is almost spurious to increasing supply as it is all relative to inflation! In an inflationary environment producers “hoard” the bulk of their supply ,no matter how much Is produced because of higher prices to come. See the 1970’s as the example. J.Carter was increasing money supply causing interest rates and prices to rise dramatically. He sold US gold holdings only to drive prices higher! Leigh’s forecast of $13,000 gold in 10 years(?) is a 25% compounded rate -it did 30% in the 1970’s. That is $18,000. He is conservative ?
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DMOne of the very best and there have been some great ones. No idea how anyone could vote thumbs down.
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TAGreat!
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EMBitcoin is horrible for the environment. Please checkout Nano, no miners required. Feeless, Instant transactions. Check it out, it's quite new but will disrupt Bitcoin.
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PWBrilliant!
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MOBrilliant! (best interview yet!) Of course, my own interests have been in uranium, zinc, copper, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, gold and silver miners (have suffered greatly, since I have been MUCH too soon in my interest in this area). I also lost a bundle intesting in oil a few years back when I thought it couldn't go any lower (alas ... being too soon is the same as being wrong). This interview has brought comfort to a contrarian who has discovered he resonates completely with another (it was more than a "meeting of the minds" to hear this interview). Here's hoping that these thoughts play out exactly as described! (everyone who listens to this, please disregard since there are a few incredibly cheap stocks out there that I haven't bought yet ... and I would prefer that you don't bid them up before I get a few more of them ... thank you!).
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MNInteresting discussion regarding the disconnect between oil price and offshore oil drillers. My take is that exploration budgets are set annually, around the end of each year. No oil major, lease holder, or operator can present an exploration budget to their board until they can confidently forecast +/- 25% ROI. So, imagine, expro divisions start to propose significant investment in offshore leases and wildcat drilling. ROI is just a projection. The majors will not move until they can see the upside. These decisions are seasonal, synchronised to the budget cycle - a spike and persistent uptick in the oil price will not have much effect in offshore oil & gas exploration activity until the following January. After that, the stock of idle rigs of all types has to be cleared - this process could take 1-2-3 years before the offshore drillers begin to see day rate pricing power.
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BTThere is a lot of consensus across various RVTV contributors that we are in the early year or years of a commodity bull market. This was a very insightful interview with a number of those key "a ha" statements that make me an extremely grateful RVTV subscriber. I actually liked Grant's movement from one topic to the next and was happy he had time to get to each of the major categories, which he might not have had if he hadn't managed the interview the way he did. Nice one Grant - I will rewatch! Thanks for a terrific interview.
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GSGreat stuff Please bring me more...
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JHAbsolutely loved this one - fascinating listening to Leigh Goehring, but the real star for me is Grant as an interviewer. Grant has an inimitable style, rich set of questions / discourse, a wealth of knowledge about markets and financial history and a great sense of humour. PLEASE BRING HIM BACK to do another series! This is one of my all-time favourite series on RV.
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IOWellp that was a quick one hour.
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JDSuperb ... His comments on Germany and renewables are enlightening....
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RWLike Leigh's cowtie... :)
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BRJim series is excellent
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SWJim is a NUT! Love this series! Real laughs along the way, but fantastic content underlying.
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TJFascinating to hear Leigh's thoughts and insights on commodities and especially oil. Having recently looked closely at an excellent research paper titled “Peak oil demand and long-run oil prices”, by Spencer Dale, Group Chief Economist at BP and Bassam Fattouh, Director of The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, I was already excited about the potential for oil since their paper suggests there is every possibility that we are haeding towards a potential golden age for oil, ironically not because of peak oil but thanks to “peak demand”, which could last for decades. Hearing Leigh's views has convinced me further to invest in this excising asset class. I can't believe Jim's discussion with Leigh is the last of his superb series.Jim has the most delicious combination of knowledge, charisma and satire! Please try and persuade him to do another series!
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NHgreat interview and great content. keep it coming.
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RDJim is a great interviewer and I like this series - but his lack of patience when trying to direct the flow is annoying at points. Too many interruptions disrupt flow - at least give them a chance to go off-track and then redirect instead of constantly cutting off sentences.
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RMGreat interview by Jim Grant again! I myself have felt that now is a good time to start looking at natural resources again. From offshore oil drillers to uranium to copper (and even the agriculture space) but just did not feel I had the knowledge or expertise to pick individual companies based on my lack of skill in balance sheet reading etc (ie, fundamental analysis). I had been planning on going the brain dead route and just buying ETFs in these various spaces but now knowing that someone as knowledgeable as Leigh actually runs a mutual fund (and not an exclusive hedge fund only open to accredited investors with very large minimums) I now have something to really investigate to see if I am comfortable with his product. Many thanks Jim Grant and Leigh Goehring!
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SSWonderful piece. Jim, I love your interviews and you manage to get some of the most interesting people. And I laugh every time they ask you if you can state your name. :) You might have had a second career in comedy.
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DJBrilliant as allways:-) I know this space well.
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TSSlightly slow start but finishes very strong. I learned a lot in this interview about commodities and how one might view the world. As always, I wished I was there over a meal to listen in on the conversation. Thanks, RV. I would gladly pay the annual fee *just* for 12 or so episodes of this series.
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RM*** RVTV *** Thanks for listening!!! (re: posting recording date) ;-)