Great insight. But I really wonder about SF and California continuing to be the center of innovation given the stifling regulatory and tax environment out there. Also the 'creeping righteous fascism' of the US in general and the Left Coast in general. I don't know a US state or city that is more about 'big government' and overregulation (bordering on insane) than SF. Nor of a bigger housing bubble than in the Bay Area. As smart as these people are, aren't we all supposed to be questioning how much longer things can go on as is out there? The social and politically correct climate in the universities and places like SF is absolutely stifling.

He says the government is the only entity that is not deleveraging. Looks to me like many public companies have been in the process of levering up their balance sheets to buy back stock

The big picture view is so, on point - thanks JB. Along with Raoul / Kyle Bass and Brett Steenbarger, he makes RV special - whereas a lot of other talks seem filler material

No mention of a lack of fiscal spending on public works? The TVA and Hoover dam are certainly not in San Fran and are still generating clean energy? Did he say he missed the most of the 90's ROI?

San Fran the center of reality syndrome? I'd argue the NASA/defense/university research funded by taxpayers is the agent of change unique to this nation. First price is but a rationing mechanism?

Liliana, we won't see much good out of India this decade, especially with its oppressive, protectionist, nationalist government. It may not even reap the natural rewards of its demographics.

John cb blinded due to his closeness to SF. He didn't see China coming and he may no see India or X coming and with it another boom in commodities much later. Not different this time . Tech bust part2

Interesting and thoughtful comments on technology by John. However, I was not convinced that SF is going to be the key "cluster" nor that the liquidity event isn't going to be world changing.

Governments are the enemy of innovation. They seem to prefer slow moving, established, crony capitalism.

So good to watch someone so positive about the future and human resourcefulness. John see's through the 'liquidity event' that everyone else is so scared of. If Fed didn't act we'd be there already.

Keep talking, please.

The liquidation event and deflation thesis is sound but other than long US Treasuries, not many insights as to where to hide out. Otherwise, this was one of the top RV insight pieces.

Sorry, but the comments on tech are too simplistic. True, tech will remain innovative/disruptive, but not necessarily a good investment. The low entry barriers are a constrain for supernormal profits.

The human world of exchanging goods and services is rapidly moving away from the GDP measures. Yet unheard of methods of energy production, cleaning water, growing food are on our horizon. Yes, John

I think since he s in SF he s a bit caught up in the clustering story. Its been happening for a while. The key point / take away is innovation. Tech is eating the world and thats going to ramp up.

John’s clustering thesis is depressing- just visit San Francisco.

Food for thought. Wld like grtr depth of explanation of key points + examples. I've checked innovative companies to invest in = volatile; require deep research, science/tech know how = prop if early

Disagree strongly with his clustering thesis. Firms around this country are outsourcing work to a distributed pop of programmers, spread worldwide and doing excellent work. See RealVision as exmpl!

From his clustering framework I would think Texas - an emerging market w/in a developed economy - is better positioned to attract capital of all types. A better place to do business for many reasons.

Great Insight here from John. Would love to see him elaborate on his energy thesis and its impact on majors. Seems overly enthused about San Fran. Whats theImpact of a botched regulatory environment?

Deleveraging? Gov't numbers show tiny amount of personal deleveraging over the last 10-15 yrs. Corps are levering up to do stock buybacks. Not sure where he gets his leverage data.

Peter Thiel makes the case for slowing rate of technological change. Marginal utility of "new tech" is low. Internet has been great, but less important than internal plumbing for human well being

So what happens to the A team when the underclass becomes desperate enough? Nothing good. Marx might have been bad at economics, he did understand the dynamics of class warfare rather well.

Outstanding. There is so much food for thought and insight in here. Easily one of the best pieces on Realvision.

I would only comment that the concentration of capital, human or otherwise, always suffers liquidity events. Just as an extreme example, a major earthquake in the Bay area. Use your imagination.

Human capital is less restrained in the digital era. Barriers are lower for implementing and scaling innovation and markets are bigger therefore the opportunity for impact & value creation is greater.

Interesting, but other than the Silicon Valley what does San Fran have that NYC or London doesn't? As a place of the future Niall Ferguson recommends Hong Kong, but I'm not so sure where's best to be.

Thank you, John. My mind has shifted as a result of your forward thinking, which is a very pleasant change from revisionary commentary. I look forward to hearing more from you, please.

The future lies in tech grounded in the sciences. It’s silly to try to predict where innovation will occur. Understanding the technology will be the key to realizing its value.

It's clear that successful investment in little whales requires constant scanning of the horizon and being close to the action. I'm a mundane investor, but the interview was interesting. Thx..

I think the future speaks through John, it's all about human capital & talent clustering and everything what's gonna facilitate it (i.e. workspace/tech/lifestyle/long-term education providers).

Risk Parity in that environment is not pretty. Look at doing 1/vol or equal risk contribution optimization on Japanese assets for last 25 yrs.

How does this "liquidity event" unfold? Long, fitful deleveraging to 2% long bond and negative US rates to 5yrs?

“Out of clutter, find simplicity. From discord, find harmony. In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” Einstein