John Williams – Think Piece

Published on
September 15th, 2015
38 minutes

John Williams – Think Piece

Think Piece ·
Featuring John Williams

Published on: September 15th, 2015 • Duration: 38 minutes

In this week's Think Piece, John Williams, private economic consultant and founder of ShadowStats, scrutinizes the elastic methodologies used to calculate benchmark data on the U.S.economy, and explains why reliance on these numbers can obscure major market discrepancies.


  • GM
    Gerald M.
    16 September 2015 @ 05:06
    I've followed John starting in 2004 but not in recent years. Same message about the Fed, data manipulation, dollar collapse, hyperinflation, etc. I could never find anything really actionable.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      30 May 2018 @ 00:03
      Well, if you had bought gold, stocks, real estate in 2004, in fact if you had bought any hard asset that would protect you from would have done quite well.
  • JM
    John M.
    21 September 2015 @ 23:16
    Interesting points but I would like to hear an opposing view.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      30 May 2018 @ 00:00
      No one would dare to take him on ....
  • MV
    Matt V.
    28 December 2015 @ 23:58
    John is a lot smarter than me, but as someone previously stated, he's been calling for Hyperinflation for the last 6 years or so. It would be nice to have someone call him on that.
  • AL
    Alex L.
    11 November 2015 @ 21:36
    This guy has been calling for hyperinflation since 2010. Every year, he makes the SAME PREDICTION: hyperinflation is on the verge of destroying the dollar. How did he get on here?
  • JF
    Jennifer F.
    28 September 2015 @ 07:31
  • JL
    James L.
    26 September 2015 @ 21:37
    It is all a game of psychology, and John's work helps separate illusion from fact. His views are not realized until public's blinders fall away.
  • DF
    David F. | Contributor
    24 September 2015 @ 05:01
    Excellent . . .truly excellent.
  • AG
    Alexander G.
    23 September 2015 @ 14:49
    However, difficult to imagine CPI to be around 7%. In this millennium we only had 1 quarter with 7%+ nominal GDP growth, implying we'd been in a recession since Q3 1989
  • AG
    Alexander G.
    23 September 2015 @ 14:47
    He's absolutely correct on hedonic adjustment and OER. Look at the CPI report. Quality of electronics improved so much their index went from 100 to 8.
  • PK
    Prem K.
    21 September 2015 @ 14:17
    You should also indicate the track records of such charlatans. He is imagining hyper-inflation when the world is staring at a deflation. good luck to the 90% who give him thumbs up.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    19 September 2015 @ 15:48
    As these general comments prove, this is a rude awakening to most people. There is a general lack of knowledge on how the worlds monetary system works. Once you understand that, your mind will awaken
  • WM
    Will M.
    18 September 2015 @ 18:46
    Commenter says he can't see anything actionable? John is clearly demonstrating the stats are manipulated and at some point soon it will become visible to all. Then the s*** will his t he fan.
  • WM
    Will M.
    18 September 2015 @ 18:43
    Bit surprised at some of the mediocre reviews here. John is a very sharp guy who KNOWS his facts but the system has be gamed via electronic money and debt.
  • PM
    Pippa M. | Contributor
    18 September 2015 @ 10:46
    This is pure genius stuff. Williams is right on every count. All govt stats are produced by people who have the interest of govt in mind and not the interests of the public or the markets.
  • CP
    CRAIG P.
    18 September 2015 @ 04:59
    Appreciate detailed explanation of statistics manipulation. I'm long the dollar and his message gives me pause. In a global economic meltdown, wouldn't the $ show strength, at least initially?
  • FS
    Fred S.
    17 September 2015 @ 13:36
    Timing is always the issue. Very smart traders tend to be early and so was John in 2011. Markets AND gov'ts can be irrational longer that you would expect.
  • KS
    Kashyap S.
    17 September 2015 @ 10:16
    He famously predicted that the US will enter hyperinflation in 2011. Ironically, that's the year the dollar started to strengthen and gold fell off a cliff. He couldn't have been more wrong!
  • LW
    Lawrence W.
    17 September 2015 @ 04:47
    John's Message has not changed in the last 8 years. It's like a doctor telling you. "you're going to die ultimately", He's technically correct but this fact is not very useful or tradeable.
  • MS
    Michiel S.
    16 September 2015 @ 21:25
    I expect most other currencies to go down first and against the USD before the USD do so against non-printable currencies. Gold/Silver are hammered and possibly cheap now but for sure very cheap soon!
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    16 September 2015 @ 20:23
    No doubt John will be proved right in the end, but I'm afraid his analysis doesn't include global factors that will push the dollar up before it comes crashing down. Basket cases abound.
  • CT
    Claudia T.
    16 September 2015 @ 19:36
    John's presentation confirms what I have learned in my statistics class years ago: "never trust any statistic that you haven't manipulated yourself." Thanks for this interview RealVision!
  • WM
    William M.
    16 September 2015 @ 19:22
    Would be interesting to see him debate a deflationist like Gary Shilling. It's probably impossible to determine a perfect measure of inflation...but there's plenty of everyday evidence that it's low.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    16 September 2015 @ 16:37
    Hard hitting serious food for thought and yet another dollar bear. Excellent presentation from John.
  • MM
    Mark M.
    16 September 2015 @ 01:51
    This segment is one amongst many that are pushing me into the gold realm, but in the longer view it points to the question of how to "regulate" the government and institutionalize ethics.
  • JM
    Jon M.
    16 September 2015 @ 00:40
    Williams is a smart man with a moral compass. In the absence of global malfeasance in management of debts, social contracts and currencies, dollar is killed but I suspect all currencies must die
  • DP
    David P.
    15 September 2015 @ 23:59
    Have followed Mr. Williams' work since the crisis of 2008 and found that his common-sense and revisionist approach more credible than the official bureaucracy, media, and academic supporters. Bravo
  • RB
    Roy B.
    15 September 2015 @ 23:54
    Good thoughts but he wanders. Need a Pippin moderator to keep the conversation moving and on point.
  • db
    don b.
    15 September 2015 @ 23:35
    The truth hurts and what this shows is what a fraud the Fed's recovery has been. "They've backed themselves into a corner, they have lost control of the system." Amen
  • MD
    Mark D.
    15 September 2015 @ 22:45
    Have followed John for years. He is very diligent in his reassessments of economic data massaged by government. What the real numbers will lead to is anyone's guess but it won't be pretty.
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    15 September 2015 @ 20:27
    Pretty wonky but I've been following him on and off. His logic on how hyperinflation was somewhat loose and would like to have seen him guess the timing. But I agree having gold makes me sleep better