A Fresh Look at GM

Published on
August 7th, 2018
12 minutes

A Fresh Look at GM

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring David Trainer

Published on: August 7th, 2018 • Duration: 12 minutes

David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, lays out a bullish trade on GM. He discusses his analysis on the automaker and reveals his key metrics for measuring company performance in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on August 2, 2018.


  • ns
    niall s.
    7 August 2018 @ 10:15
    We have now had two trade ideas on GM one a bull case from David and one a bear case from a Mr Wolfe, not so long ago . Personally I would prefer to hear about companies from either a bull or bear perspective but not both at the same time as it a bit confusing to say the least .
    • YB
      Yuriy B.
      7 August 2018 @ 12:01
      Niall, this is precisely the brilliance of Real Vision. You get to hear intelligent people offer their candid views on the world. Sometimes the views of two of these people conflict and we must each use our own judgement to side with one of them or simply to throw the topic in our "too hard" bucket and not bet on it either way. I for one am grateful to hear divergent views. Thank you RV - please keep it coming!
    • ns
      niall s.
      7 August 2018 @ 15:06
      Yuriy , I certainly hope you are right and it is indeed "brilliance" and not the lack of attention I was suspecting
    • SH
      Steve H.
      7 August 2018 @ 17:23
      Niall, Yuriy is dead right. The beauty of RV is that it brings together a bunch of (on the whole) credible people who will often have very different opinions, not just on individual assets and asset classes but even on seminal issues such as inflation or disinflation, DXY up or down, etc., etc. As for it being confusing......yep, that's why we get paid when we get it right.
    • TN
      Thomas N.
      8 August 2018 @ 00:49
      differing opinions is the core of investing. i love hearing opposing views, as it challenges us to think more critically
    • PD
      Pat D.
      13 August 2018 @ 05:11
      Someone has to take the other side ........... on any trade!
  • ra
    rahul a.
    9 August 2018 @ 20:36
    @1:53 How is GM return on investment capital going up ? graph says otherwise
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    9 August 2018 @ 18:41
    I am trying to be bullish on GM. Getting there, but would love to hear his take on pension issues. Cash flows could be diverted to pension and could cause LT issues under the right adverse circumstances. Something I am missing here?
  • ML
    Murali L.
    8 August 2018 @ 06:11
    David Trainer has been making a bull case on GM for over two years to no avail. In fact, plenty of value gurus have held it for over 6-7 yrs and given up. As Gordon Gecko says, “it’s a dog with a different fleece, still a dog.”
  • AT
    Atul T.
    7 August 2018 @ 21:07
    Except he is Completely wrong on TSLA today!
  • DV
    David V.
    7 August 2018 @ 18:32
    Great interview...except at the end when Justine asked David to break down the trade in 30 seconds, and David went on for a minute and 15 seconds. Justine needs to get a buzzer /J
  • SH
    Steve H.
    7 August 2018 @ 17:32
    Well-argued piece. Other comments have raised some red flags (e.g., China, pensions, production numbers). All I would add is to commend Mr. Trainer's courage if he's shorting TSLA as part of a pairs trade with GM. TSLA's a cult plain and simple, and timing when to short a cult in full flow (up 5% on the day as I write this) is only for the brave. Somewhere recently in the RV Empire Milton 'said' that he's keeping his money well away from TSLA, long or short. The guy's no dummy.
  • GF
    George F.
    7 August 2018 @ 12:10
    Pension Obligations? Back in the day, GM was considered a perpetual losing bet because of the pension and healthcare obligations GM had. FWIW, Tesla has no retirees and I don't think there is any pension scheme.
    • BP
      Bryce P.
      7 August 2018 @ 17:22
      “Pension scheme”????? You really mean deferred compensation.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    7 August 2018 @ 17:21
    The used car glut and the growing consumer loan defaults just don't leave me very excited about the auto makers. Then there is GM Financial. I don't like any business, auto or otherwise, with a product finance arm. The pressure always comes down from the top to make loans and boost sales. That inevitably leads to a debt debacle in the finance arm. Lending needs to happen at arms length. And let's face it, people aren't exactly excited about the GM product lineup. I don't know if GM is really cheap enough to say that all these things are baked in to the price and therefore it can only get better. Maybe.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    7 August 2018 @ 12:53
    GM stopped publishing monthly production numbers earlier this year supposedly because they aren’t accurate enough. They will release them quarterly. Even David agrees you can only fool people a short amount of time.
    • V!
      Volatimothy !.
      7 August 2018 @ 13:00
      I read it in Grant’s. One more thing, they won’t release China numbers. Their biggest market.
  • AB
    Adnane B.
    7 August 2018 @ 11:24
    Seems to me that the bull case for GM is driven by valuation comparison between GM and TSLA. GM and TSLA aren't in the same market, GM sell fossil fuel / combustion engine cars, whereas TSLA is a pure electric car player. The GM long trade shouldn't be a counter TSLA short trade. Anyway, for GM to break higher I believe they have to seriously address the electrical vehicle market and start taking some market share in this new promising industry.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.