Comments
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RTI guess he was wrong on the AUD. Both Xi and Trump are overplaying their hands and neither will back down easily.
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jsThe latest TIFF report confirms his fundamental analysis. However, given Trevisani's reasoning from the last show, I'm trying to figure out why he is not looking at a eur/cad short.
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DRFrom a technical perspective, I agree with both of Joseph's trades! For added juice and conviction, I'd consider long some EM commodity currencies against USD. For example, if you can trade it, short USD/MYR, which is already down a big 11-cents recently. But easier and thus maybe better to choose, as he has, the AUD instead of MYR as a china proxy. But beware the deteriorating China-Oz relationship (see below). In contrast, Myr and China are friendly. Good luck!
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BHWell notwithstanding the longer term outlook it looks like both his $AUD and Loonie trades are underwater. There are far more headwinds than tailwinds for the Aussie right now.
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TGShort Term - 12-18 months - AUD and CAD should start to come under extreme pressure due to RE declines, over-indebted consumers causing consumers to pull back and loose confidence - Recession in both economies coming 2019. I think LONG USD vs CAD/AUD for a few years before getting back into AUD and CAD dollars as reflation of Commodities being in 2021/2022
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CTcontrarian position. consensus is short CAD and AUD.
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LSThat is a very aggressive call. Most of us have been on the other side of the AUD and see 65 as the handle. He may be right about the US/China trade agreement but I am not convinced that will give the boost to the China economy that flows to Aust and Canada. Time will tell as always.
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HORV needs some new voices on FX.
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BPthanks for your money Jo
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SHSold to you, mate.
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DPDon’t think that trade disputes were raised only for economic standpoint hence deal or no deal wouldn’t change long term output of business cycle. I would say more to do with dominance in global technology advancement and opening markets for US is a significant demand that impacts long term vision of CCP. Won’t come to any significant agreement even in March deadline. Time will be telling .
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PBprimary driver of Australia and Canada is all the laundered dirty money from corrupt chinese officials and secondary escape artist Chinese citizens. That dirty money could be cut off soon or already.