Going Long Gold

Published on
August 27th, 2018
Duration
9 minutes


Going Long Gold

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Max Wolff

Published on: August 27th, 2018 • Duration: 9 minutes

Max Wolff, chief economist at the Phoenix Group, is a buyer of gold. In this interview with Brian Price, Max says the yellow metal will become more attractive to investors once equity markets take a bearish turn. Max also lays out just how high he sees the ETF rising this year. Filmed on August 21, 2018.

Comments

  • GV
    George V.
    11 September 2018 @ 16:03
    Please don't have Max on again. This was a total waste of time. If I want Trump bashing, I will go to CNN.
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      14 September 2018 @ 20:15
      Noted. I promise he will be on again.
  • JM
    John M.
    28 August 2018 @ 02:31
    Like gold but is he saying that Trump is a disaster and his failed (?) policies will ultimately move gold higher? Is that really going to happen within the time frame of his trade idea? BTW Today Trump announced a tentative USA-Mexico free trade deal. It might be more favourable to USA than NAFTA was?
    • MS
      Michel S.
      28 August 2018 @ 23:50
      Trump is a disaster and failed??? Look at any market graft before posting,, and watch more RV and less CNN !!!
    • CM
      C M.
      31 August 2018 @ 02:49
      As far as Trump announcing deals, don't take them seriously until something is signed. This administration has been challenged in closing deals. As far as the value of the deal, every analysis I have read says it has minimal impact (particularly on autos) to what we lived with under NAFTA. Primarily, a deal removes uncertainity about a trade war which is probably its biggest benefit.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    30 August 2018 @ 17:37
    Lots of thoughts here, a whole bunch of opinion, but nothing at all to support it. This sounds like an outright guess on an oversold bounce...could be right, but bottom fishing garbage in massive downtrends is a tough way to try and turn profits. Until you see some key levels breached to the upside with some demand buying, this is a firm downtrend. Too much opinion, not enough facts in this presentation.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    27 August 2018 @ 16:52
    Classic Trump Derangement Syndrome
    • JF
      Jack F.
      27 August 2018 @ 17:19
      We'll see if that is still your opinion 6-12 months from now.
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:11
      If we could only be a little more in debt, then things would be better
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      28 August 2018 @ 16:30
      http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/06/time-to-not-freak-out-about-debt-again.html personal debt is not the same as sovereign debt
  • DR
    David R.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:54
    I might agree overall but IMHO he's flying blind - no technical chart or analysis, just some "I think" and a bunch of Trump talk. Amusing but not at all convincing, at least not to me. Also, when he talks about investors flocking to gold from a falling stock market, even if we were to concede the latter, most institutional investors cannot buy gold. Finally, GLD is not really gold; study its documents and/or consult a lawyer... Imagine some year when gold finally soars in a crisis but GLD goes to zero, lol, it could happen!
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:23
      Jim Rickards is always talking about "force majeure clauses."
    • my
      markettaker y.
      27 August 2018 @ 23:31
      yeah agree. pretty superficial stuff.
    • BH
      Ben H.
      28 August 2018 @ 08:59
      Pretty sure every insto investor whether they are a family office, HF or mutual fund can find a way to buy gold whether its gold debt, equities, physical, futures or even GLD... there is an exposure/instrument for any manager of money almost no matter their mandate.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 August 2018 @ 09:38
      Ben, yes I agree and also disagree. As many institutionals cannot buy physical gold, especially in size, and they need yield which gold doesn't pay unless you lease it out which defeats its purpose as a crisis hedge. As for those gold proxies, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug, there is already a precedent for a significant divergence between physical gold and paper gold price; in a crisis that might recur and paper gold holders will have failed in their strategy.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 August 2018 @ 09:44
      CB, not only Rickards or other gold crackpots. Thing is, it doesn't matter until it matters. This is one issue that I don't take lightly, given that one purpose of owning gold is to hedge a systemic crisis with something free of counter party risk. All your puts or other portfolio insurance strategies aren't worth a whit if the other side can't/doesn't pay up and/or policymakers step in to save the majority as "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few".
  • DS
    David S.
    27 August 2018 @ 19:40
    Anyone have an opinion on AAAU Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF vis-a-vis GLD. Long-term gold will be part of my portfolio. I was a little shaken by Dr. Malmgren -who I greatly respect- saying that gold may go down initially in a major market downturn as investors, or their margin holders, need to get cash. DLS
    • NI
      Nate I.
      27 August 2018 @ 20:28
      I understand what Harald said; however, would you rather own something that you could sell in exchange for goods or just own the things that go all the way to zero? This kind of thinking, while accurate in the most narrow possible context, kinda misses the big picture. Moreover, it goes some distance in explaining the state of affairs in the beltway where up is down and black is white. Sure, gold might drop in a crisis because it's the only thing people can sell which has some value, but it won't drop as much as stocks with a negative tangible book value (which now describes most of the S&P 500) or bonds that can never be repaid in real terms (aka sovereign debt).
    • JM
      Jason M.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:08
      Let me clarify - I live and breath precious metals btw. Malmgren was commenting on total systemic collapse or EM systemic collapse. He did not make it clear which it was. Either way, in a systemic FINANCIAL collapse gold will suffer alongside everything else but less so (the 1998 scenario). However, Max (and many others) are not calling a financial collapse of the US. Where gold can do incredibly well is where the US markets sell-off more than other G8 markets and/or where USD is moving down swiftly. We currently have the latter beginning to happen and Max is predicting the former by year-end. The latter might delay the former (esp S&P and NASDAQ due to int'l earnings) for some time but by late in the year its probably obvious US has slowed to a crawl. So I agree with this analysis.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 August 2018 @ 02:30
      I am not selling physical gold. I am thinking about buying AAAU or GLD if gold drops in a market correction. AAAU is new to me, and I just wondered what other's thought on both points. Thanks for your responses. DLS
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      28 August 2018 @ 08:41
      Dan Oliver respectfully disagrees: In 2008, gold had risen parabolically, traders were levered up, and the crisis hit the U.S. first. Next time, gold will have been depressed, traders will be short (perhaps greatly so), and the crisis will likely start in EMs. So instead of margin calls in a liquidity crisis, gold will be vulnerable to collateral calls as EMs briefly sell gold to defend their currencies. The drop in gold in 2008 was short-lived, and the drop in the next crisis is likely to be over even sooner - if indeed, it happens at all. Personally, I wouldn't gamble on a fire sale next time; the stakes of being wrong are your portfolio burns down.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    28 August 2018 @ 04:23
    TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALLGAME Weldon Live Spend the time for entertaining recap of what is going on in the world of finance. He is positive gold too but the analysis that Weldon gives is much stronger.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    28 August 2018 @ 03:56
    Let me box this trade for you as Max should have. China just told you their line in the sand. They can certainly defend it. Gold has been highly correlated to RMB in its fall. China is stimulating so the clock is ticking for RMB bears and probably gold bears along with it. If trade deal is cut - RMB goes up; USD down. If trade deal isn't cut - RMB goes nowhere and we get to see how that US equity bubble performs in a real trade war. Stocks fall - gold up. Please feel free to tell me what I'm missing everyone. The risk to all of this is US equity market blow-off top with a strong dollar to boot...but u aren't getting a blow-off top with an escalated China trade war....heck, a US blow-off top was showing us last week that it will wreck most of the world outside the US a couple tech countries. Add some real retaliation from China to that mix?? Nah...not gonna play like that.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    27 August 2018 @ 12:20
    Max Wolff vs. Tony Greer gold trades. May the best man win. RV has got to recap these two trades for the sport of it.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:10
      Hmmm, Tony hasn't had the best record so far and seems a bit mark-to-market at times: $EEM - about to be stopped out within weeks / days Freeport - stopped out within weeks of recommendation Citigroup - finally about to be stopped out Werner - stopped out Miracle grow - stopped out in recent weeks Marathon Petroleum - reached his target Gold ??? I like his thinking and long-term views. But given he's 1/6 and positioning is pretty stretched on gold, gold stocks and the $, wouldn't be surprised if we get a gold bounce and he's soon 1/7. Having said that, I don't think the lows are in for gold in this cycle (secular $ bull here).
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:43
      Agreed Andrew. Tony seems to be chasing in every direction
    • JM
      Jason M.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:10
      Its already over. Tony is stopped out.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:45
      I'm in.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:53
      my last few Real Vision ideas - dead wrong. Part of risk management. They're about 1/4 of my trade ideas because I write about my views in detail in my newsletter. Not to mention, you conveniently forgot to mention the Marathon Petroleum, oil, and home builder ideas I recorded that have gone just fine. Read. The. Newsletter.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:53
      my last few Real Vision ideas - dead wrong. Part of risk management. They're about 1/4 of my trade ideas because I write about my views in detail in my newsletter. Not to mention, you conveniently forgot to mention the Marathon Petroleum, oil, and home builder ideas I recorded that have gone just fine. Read. The. Newsletter.
    • V!
      Volatimothy !.
      28 August 2018 @ 01:30
      I’m not sharing any trades, therefore I won’t criticize anyone for sharing. We all have to use our own judgment to decide if we have conviction and want to go with a recommendation.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:36
    hyperbola! ad hoc! not very helpful.
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:10
      Only because you already knew you should have a gold allocation!
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    27 August 2018 @ 15:16
    Max I hope your right. I’ve been building a position for two years so to actually generate a respectable profit Gold has a long way to go. Riding out the various dips and slides has been nerve racking With the opinion that a major correction must come I’ve just watched the markets move forward as gold dithers and stutters has been hard to take. But having done it and maybe Payday has arrived. Note MAYBE!!! I’m reminded to be cautious daily. Be careful what you wish for you might get it. Us investors like to wait to pile on so if the market in Gold does start to move up it’ll likely be slow. Thanks for your opinions and thanks to RVTV for the constant stream of great service.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:24
      I think building some gold / a list of gold stocks is pretty wise. But I doubt we'll see a huge rally unless the dollar drops or real rates collapse. The set-up for gold looks pretty good, with real rates higher than 2016, yet I think we'll need a catalyst - Fed turnaround, or USTs getting massively bid (2016 saw 60bps move down on the 10-year), for a BIG move up. Seems more of a nice, solid fx sort of trade, versus hitting it out of the park like 2016 or 2009 (so far).
  • AM
    Andrew M.
    27 August 2018 @ 16:13
    And can we get the old commenting format back please? These huge chunks of text without a line break are rather intimidating / off putting lol

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

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MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

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