Going Long Gold

Published on
August 27th, 2018
9 minutes

Going Long Gold

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Max Wolff

Published on: August 27th, 2018 • Duration: 9 minutes

Max Wolff, chief economist at the Phoenix Group, is a buyer of gold. In this interview with Brian Price, Max says the yellow metal will become more attractive to investors once equity markets take a bearish turn. Max also lays out just how high he sees the ETF rising this year. Filmed on August 21, 2018.


  • GV
    George V.
    11 September 2018 @ 16:03
    Please don't have Max on again. This was a total waste of time. If I want Trump bashing, I will go to CNN.
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      14 September 2018 @ 20:15
      Noted. I promise he will be on again.
  • JM
    John M.
    28 August 2018 @ 02:31
    Like gold but is he saying that Trump is a disaster and his failed (?) policies will ultimately move gold higher? Is that really going to happen within the time frame of his trade idea? BTW Today Trump announced a tentative USA-Mexico free trade deal. It might be more favourable to USA than NAFTA was?
    • MS
      Michel S.
      28 August 2018 @ 23:50
      Trump is a disaster and failed??? Look at any market graft before posting,, and watch more RV and less CNN !!!
    • CM
      C M.
      31 August 2018 @ 02:49
      As far as Trump announcing deals, don't take them seriously until something is signed. This administration has been challenged in closing deals. As far as the value of the deal, every analysis I have read says it has minimal impact (particularly on autos) to what we lived with under NAFTA. Primarily, a deal removes uncertainity about a trade war which is probably its biggest benefit.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    30 August 2018 @ 17:37
    Lots of thoughts here, a whole bunch of opinion, but nothing at all to support it. This sounds like an outright guess on an oversold bounce...could be right, but bottom fishing garbage in massive downtrends is a tough way to try and turn profits. Until you see some key levels breached to the upside with some demand buying, this is a firm downtrend. Too much opinion, not enough facts in this presentation.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    27 August 2018 @ 16:52
    Classic Trump Derangement Syndrome
    • JF
      Jack F.
      27 August 2018 @ 17:19
      We'll see if that is still your opinion 6-12 months from now.
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:11
      If we could only be a little more in debt, then things would be better
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      28 August 2018 @ 16:30
      http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/06/time-to-not-freak-out-about-debt-again.html personal debt is not the same as sovereign debt
  • DR
    David R.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:54
    I might agree overall but IMHO he's flying blind - no technical chart or analysis, just some "I think" and a bunch of Trump talk. Amusing but not at all convincing, at least not to me. Also, when he talks about investors flocking to gold from a falling stock market, even if we were to concede the latter, most institutional investors cannot buy gold. Finally, GLD is not really gold; study its documents and/or consult a lawyer... Imagine some year when gold finally soars in a crisis but GLD goes to zero, lol, it could happen!
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:23
      Jim Rickards is always talking about "force majeure clauses."
    • my
      markettaker y.
      27 August 2018 @ 23:31
      yeah agree. pretty superficial stuff.
    • BH
      Ben H.
      28 August 2018 @ 08:59
      Pretty sure every insto investor whether they are a family office, HF or mutual fund can find a way to buy gold whether its gold debt, equities, physical, futures or even GLD... there is an exposure/instrument for any manager of money almost no matter their mandate.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 August 2018 @ 09:38
      Ben, yes I agree and also disagree. As many institutionals cannot buy physical gold, especially in size, and they need yield which gold doesn't pay unless you lease it out which defeats its purpose as a crisis hedge. As for those gold proxies, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug, there is already a precedent for a significant divergence between physical gold and paper gold price; in a crisis that might recur and paper gold holders will have failed in their strategy.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 August 2018 @ 09:44
      CB, not only Rickards or other gold crackpots. Thing is, it doesn't matter until it matters. This is one issue that I don't take lightly, given that one purpose of owning gold is to hedge a systemic crisis with something free of counter party risk. All your puts or other portfolio insurance strategies aren't worth a whit if the other side can't/doesn't pay up and/or policymakers step in to save the majority as "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few".
  • DS
    David S.
    27 August 2018 @ 19:40
    Anyone have an opinion on AAAU Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF vis-a-vis GLD. Long-term gold will be part of my portfolio. I was a little shaken by Dr. Malmgren -who I greatly respect- saying that gold may go down initially in a major market downturn as investors, or their margin holders, need to get cash. DLS
    • NI
      Nate I.
      27 August 2018 @ 20:28
      I understand what Harald said; however, would you rather own something that you could sell in exchange for goods or just own the things that go all the way to zero? This kind of thinking, while accurate in the most narrow possible context, kinda misses the big picture. Moreover, it goes some distance in explaining the state of affairs in the beltway where up is down and black is white. Sure, gold might drop in a crisis because it's the only thing people can sell which has some value, but it won't drop as much as stocks with a negative tangible book value (which now describes most of the S&P 500) or bonds that can never be repaid in real terms (aka sovereign debt).
    • JM
      Jason M.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:08
      Let me clarify - I live and breath precious metals btw. Malmgren was commenting on total systemic collapse or EM systemic collapse. He did not make it clear which it was. Either way, in a systemic FINANCIAL collapse gold will suffer alongside everything else but less so (the 1998 scenario). However, Max (and many others) are not calling a financial collapse of the US. Where gold can do incredibly well is where the US markets sell-off more than other G8 markets and/or where USD is moving down swiftly. We currently have the latter beginning to happen and Max is predicting the former by year-end. The latter might delay the former (esp S&P and NASDAQ due to int'l earnings) for some time but by late in the year its probably obvious US has slowed to a crawl. So I agree with this analysis.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 August 2018 @ 02:30
      I am not selling physical gold. I am thinking about buying AAAU or GLD if gold drops in a market correction. AAAU is new to me, and I just wondered what other's thought on both points. Thanks for your responses. DLS
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      28 August 2018 @ 08:41
      Dan Oliver respectfully disagrees: In 2008, gold had risen parabolically, traders were levered up, and the crisis hit the U.S. first. Next time, gold will have been depressed, traders will be short (perhaps greatly so), and the crisis will likely start in EMs. So instead of margin calls in a liquidity crisis, gold will be vulnerable to collateral calls as EMs briefly sell gold to defend their currencies. The drop in gold in 2008 was short-lived, and the drop in the next crisis is likely to be over even sooner - if indeed, it happens at all. Personally, I wouldn't gamble on a fire sale next time; the stakes of being wrong are your portfolio burns down.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    28 August 2018 @ 04:23
    TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALLGAME Weldon Live Spend the time for entertaining recap of what is going on in the world of finance. He is positive gold too but the analysis that Weldon gives is much stronger.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    28 August 2018 @ 03:56
    Let me box this trade for you as Max should have. China just told you their line in the sand. They can certainly defend it. Gold has been highly correlated to RMB in its fall. China is stimulating so the clock is ticking for RMB bears and probably gold bears along with it. If trade deal is cut - RMB goes up; USD down. If trade deal isn't cut - RMB goes nowhere and we get to see how that US equity bubble performs in a real trade war. Stocks fall - gold up. Please feel free to tell me what I'm missing everyone. The risk to all of this is US equity market blow-off top with a strong dollar to boot...but u aren't getting a blow-off top with an escalated China trade war....heck, a US blow-off top was showing us last week that it will wreck most of the world outside the US a couple tech countries. Add some real retaliation from China to that mix?? Nah...not gonna play like that.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    27 August 2018 @ 12:20
    Max Wolff vs. Tony Greer gold trades. May the best man win. RV has got to recap these two trades for the sport of it.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:10
      Hmmm, Tony hasn't had the best record so far and seems a bit mark-to-market at times: $EEM - about to be stopped out within weeks / days Freeport - stopped out within weeks of recommendation Citigroup - finally about to be stopped out Werner - stopped out Miracle grow - stopped out in recent weeks Marathon Petroleum - reached his target Gold ??? I like his thinking and long-term views. But given he's 1/6 and positioning is pretty stretched on gold, gold stocks and the $, wouldn't be surprised if we get a gold bounce and he's soon 1/7. Having said that, I don't think the lows are in for gold in this cycle (secular $ bull here).
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:43
      Agreed Andrew. Tony seems to be chasing in every direction
    • JM
      Jason M.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:10
      Its already over. Tony is stopped out.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:45
      I'm in.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:53
      my last few Real Vision ideas - dead wrong. Part of risk management. They're about 1/4 of my trade ideas because I write about my views in detail in my newsletter. Not to mention, you conveniently forgot to mention the Marathon Petroleum, oil, and home builder ideas I recorded that have gone just fine. Read. The. Newsletter.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      27 August 2018 @ 22:53
      my last few Real Vision ideas - dead wrong. Part of risk management. They're about 1/4 of my trade ideas because I write about my views in detail in my newsletter. Not to mention, you conveniently forgot to mention the Marathon Petroleum, oil, and home builder ideas I recorded that have gone just fine. Read. The. Newsletter.
    • V!
      Volatimothy !.
      28 August 2018 @ 01:30
      I’m not sharing any trades, therefore I won’t criticize anyone for sharing. We all have to use our own judgment to decide if we have conviction and want to go with a recommendation.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    27 August 2018 @ 18:36
    hyperbola! ad hoc! not very helpful.
    • CB
      C B.
      27 August 2018 @ 22:10
      Only because you already knew you should have a gold allocation!
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    27 August 2018 @ 15:16
    Max I hope your right. I’ve been building a position for two years so to actually generate a respectable profit Gold has a long way to go. Riding out the various dips and slides has been nerve racking With the opinion that a major correction must come I’ve just watched the markets move forward as gold dithers and stutters has been hard to take. But having done it and maybe Payday has arrived. Note MAYBE!!! I’m reminded to be cautious daily. Be careful what you wish for you might get it. Us investors like to wait to pile on so if the market in Gold does start to move up it’ll likely be slow. Thanks for your opinions and thanks to RVTV for the constant stream of great service.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      27 August 2018 @ 16:24
      I think building some gold / a list of gold stocks is pretty wise. But I doubt we'll see a huge rally unless the dollar drops or real rates collapse. The set-up for gold looks pretty good, with real rates higher than 2016, yet I think we'll need a catalyst - Fed turnaround, or USTs getting massively bid (2016 saw 60bps move down on the 10-year), for a BIG move up. Seems more of a nice, solid fx sort of trade, versus hitting it out of the park like 2016 or 2009 (so far).
  • AM
    Andrew M.
    27 August 2018 @ 16:13
    And can we get the old commenting format back please? These huge chunks of text without a line break are rather intimidating / off putting lol

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.