Gold in Trouble?

Published on
September 26th, 2018
5 minutes

Gold in Trouble?

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Louise Yamada

Published on: September 26th, 2018 • Duration: 5 minutes

Louise Yamada, managing director of LY Advisors, says gold bulls have it all wrong. She reviews one of the most important ratios for the yellow metal, and key levels to watch out for, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on September 20, 2018.


  • CL
    Chris L.
    27 October 2018 @ 23:29
    Reading comments on gold is such a hoot. I laugh a bit. Sure, at some point, gold will have its day. But, people use this as an excuse not to understand how gold moves, why it moves, and what's coming. As gold bugs stare at M1 charts, gold continues to fall. Will Peter Schiff be right in the end? Maybe, but does loosing money for a decade provide any solace? Money you can always make up, but time once lost is gone for good.
  • MH
    Marco H.
    26 September 2018 @ 18:59
    Nice to see the legend Louise Yamada on RealVision. The technical story is logical but I stick to my holdings. Furthermore: Justine is delivering great interviews. She is well prepared and engages in a conversation rather than firing off a list with questions. Love to see her do a longer interview.
    • LL
      Louis L. | Contributor
      18 October 2018 @ 10:11
      Justine does prepare well. I noticed that when she interviewed me. She also kept me on track.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    27 September 2018 @ 01:24
    I know of Yamada’s work. She is brilliant with long term charts. Please have her for a full hour or so of a chart show and tell. That would be a great presentation.
    • LL
      Louis L. | Contributor
      18 October 2018 @ 10:06
      Yes she is a clear thinker. I sat next to her at the CMT conference and chatted informally about markets with her. She’s a very good long term analyst.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    29 September 2018 @ 00:10
    "In price there is knowledge" Well....In fundamentals there is far more knowledge. Ask anyone investing in 1999-2000. This is a terrible set-up for US equities here. QT, Rates higher, oil higher, sky high valuations vs history and vs overseas markets....look at equity market valuation metrics (not the Dow/Gold ratio). If Republicans lose the House things will get pretty shaky. Fear will rise again. Oh...and I heard there was immense geopolitical disruption happening out there somewhere as well...but we are the "exceptional nation" so why care? Again, saw all of this in 1999...with a lot less overall debt on the system then. Gold fell dramatically in the 90s due to massive central bank selling....opposite is happening today....and China and India are geometrically more important to the gold price this time around. I don't have all the answers on gold but don't look back at bubble charts and assume we are in the same world. If you are a USD based investor and you don't own some gold here you are just drinking the Kool-Aid.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      1 October 2018 @ 05:51
      Fear will rise again................. Markets climb a wall of worry, so I take it a lot more upside in equities yet..... Euphoria yet to come!
    • DK
      Dave K.
      3 October 2018 @ 04:26
      I think all Ms Yamada is saying is that in price is all the information (knowledge) necessary to trade with some degree of precision. Fundamentals contain knowledge also, to be sure, and may be all one needs to develop thesis. But for precise trading fundamentals alone are almost useless.
    • LL
      Louis L. | Contributor
      18 October 2018 @ 10:02
      Is there a moral high ground between fundamental and technical analysis? Is one.more accurate than the other?
  • my
    markettaker y.
    26 September 2018 @ 23:33
    This old woman fascinates me, just from the brief appearance here. Can we please get her back for the full Real Vision treatment? I feel like there is a great deal going on behind the scenes in her mind and her analysis, just based on this fragment. I want the full story. I feel like she has a great deal to teach.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      27 September 2018 @ 02:39
      Drop the old and have some consideration / respect in your comments.
    • WM
      Will M.
      29 September 2018 @ 13:49
      Yes, agree with Eric. That "old" woman likely has forgotten more than you currently know markettaker! Clearly your parents didn't instill the code of respect into you.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      15 October 2018 @ 02:29
      I am duly chastened and wish I could edit my comment. I was deeply impressed with the interview and didn't mean anything by the comment. I see it was disrespectful and regret it.
  • RM
    Ross M.
    13 October 2018 @ 00:32
    You can listen to all the experts but in the end a dash of common sense will prevail. The fact that Gold is so scarce alone is the clue these experts seem to miss while debt is has and continues to grow exponentially. The beauty of gold is you can get your timing wrong but in the long run it will out perform and protect.
  • MB
    Markus B.
    26 September 2018 @ 14:21
    The chart should have had a longer dated time frame. The yellow metal peaked in 09/2011 and the period Louise is referring to is most probably a time window that is carving out a major lt bottom. Ups and downs are a part of this process, so nothing unusual. Louise is correct by watching the $1'365 - $ 1'400 area for a potential breakout. Being bullish on US equities is like dancing to the wonderful tunes of an orchestra on the deck of the Titanic, bon voyage and safe passage.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      1 October 2018 @ 05:44
      Agree; The chart should have had a longer dated time frame. we are talking serious macro change here so a 7 year chart is very insufficient !
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    28 September 2018 @ 22:49
    Excellent short-term counterpoint to the narratives (such as Weldon's) that gold is going much higher. Like many, I see investment in gold as insurance with it constituting an important 5% (to 10%) portfolio allocation. If Ms. Yamada is correct that the price of gold could drop well under $1,200, that would present an excellent opportune time to buy more insurance, maintaining the desired portfolio allocation.
  • DR
    David R.
    26 September 2018 @ 12:59
    Yep, it's pretty clear that gold is in a larger degree 2nd wave down retracing most of its 1st wave up of 2016. It *looks* like this 2nd wave down may indeed need one more downward leg to complete. Then a very powerful 3rd wave impulse higher will unfold - likely coinciding with the collapse of USD and US stocks. Already on the horizon. Retail investors will get wiped-out again (for the 3rd time in under 20 yrs). The smart money has left or is soon leaving the US stock market casino.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      26 September 2018 @ 23:37
      lol, brutal. But that whole USD collapse thing could take uh, quite a while, right? And there could be yet another round of QE until it's really go time... I'm as much a goldbug as everyone else on RV, but I want to make money more than I want to be vindicated. If the milkshake theories works out, it will be many years away and first come with mass global fx carnage first.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 September 2018 @ 12:18
      markettaker, that global fx carnage ended in 1985 with the plaza accord, and the dollar has been falling badly against (almost ) everything ever since then with occasional bear rallies. Numerous currencies are now up tenfold against USD since those days. The next QE, if there is one, could finally reveal to all what a sham it all is. As for making money, most of it has clearly been made over the long run outside the dollar and US assets. Just follow the capital flows and asset totals around the world for 30 years. Currently: 1) Asia 2) North America 3) Europe. And where the majority of all new billionaires and millionaires have been minted in recent years (it's #1). Of course the re-alignment of the global order is not a linear process, although it's now beyond the point of no return. As is the inevitable demise of USD reserve status - which might be much nearer than you think? I'm on the side of guys like Luke Groman and Juliette DeClerq who've been right on this so far with their corresponding USD and market forecasts. I'd prefer it not be this way, but we'll see.
  • RE
    Renato E.
    27 September 2018 @ 19:48
    As long as you see gold as an insurance rather than an investment, it doesn't matter when you buy it (physical, of course). Also, there is a huge difference between the price of gold and the value of gold.
  • tk
    theo k.
    27 September 2018 @ 09:43
    Can I just say that Louise Yamada is the best guest that RV ever hosted. Clear and concise and has a view supported by technicals instead of a faith-based process like 98% of the other guests.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    27 September 2018 @ 08:02
    Certainly useful video , Thank you!
  • MZ
    Martin Z.
    27 September 2018 @ 05:56
    It's a short term trade (or if you prefer, non-trade) idea, guys. She specifically stated that she has no view on the macro picture or fundamentals, so she's not threatening in any way the LT bull case for gold. That said, I don't hold gold for profit but for insurance, and the equities market could break down (or even collapse?) at any time, negating her thesis overnight. I watched this mainly because of the somewhat misleading title, but even if I was trading, I wouldn't I risk shorting gold and keeping my fingers crossed that "things are different his time."
  • KF
    Kenneth F.
    26 September 2018 @ 20:43
    file under worthless opinion. Louise Yamada predicts $5200 gold by 2018
    • my
      markettaker y.
      26 September 2018 @ 23:34
      oh so if someone changes their mind all their opinions are worthless? Don't be that kind of goldbug.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      27 September 2018 @ 02:45
      Thanks for adding that Ken, definitely adds a bit of context.
    • KF
      Kenneth F.
      27 September 2018 @ 03:13
      What I am pointing out is that she was bullish during a Parabolic Spike Blow off in 2011. Gold was completing a 10 year run w/out a down year (like SPY today) and she's jumping on the $5000 Boat because of the long term chart pattern... "based on parallel channel lines drawn as far back as 1970" & "nothing standing in the way of gold's advance" (How about Gravity) Now the charts look bad for gold? come on. (Greg Weldon had a lot more insight that her short term chart analysis.)
  • EF
    Eric F.
    27 September 2018 @ 02:58
    Good video, liked it and disagree with negative comments below. Makes me think that gold will have its day, but just not now or the near future.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    26 September 2018 @ 17:38
    What a waist of 5 min.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      27 September 2018 @ 02:46
      Not a waist, not even a waste IMO.
  • ww
    will w.
    27 September 2018 @ 00:13
    AWESOME, highly thought-provoking presentation!!! For some time now (@ least several years) i've been concerned about Gold's failure to really show sustained strength. I have to wonder if something about the foundational bull case hypotheses for Gold (and PMs in general (which hypotheses i have LONG subscribed to) is invalid under present circumstances. More & more, i'm afraid the answer to that question is YES. :( This brief intro to Ms Yamada makes me want to hear a LOT more from her - a one-hour interview would be a good start. THANKS, RV!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    26 September 2018 @ 21:49
    I think Chartists would agree that over 1225 with momentum would bring in 1250 then 1280-1300. These moves are legitimate and can make swing traders profits. Time to bring Michael Oliver back his techinical analysis is usually on point.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    26 September 2018 @ 17:33
    This was surprisingly rudimentary in its analysis, even for 5 min in length. Was expecting a stronger case. Greg Weldon’s case is MUCH stronger and more rigorously presented. I know who my money is on
    • F
      Floyd .
      26 September 2018 @ 21:15
      Don't agree as you may not have carefully listened to Greg's comments(who is great!)...Greg's perspective is one that hinges on a collapse in FX which could occur at some point in the future. However he says that gold could go into the $900's before then. I will be happy to avoid the draw down of 25% and wait for the breakout above 1300 or 1400.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    26 September 2018 @ 21:06
    To those being critical of Louise's opinion,it is not a short term trading idea as many others are is suggesting. Louise identifies longer term trend changes that you can play/invest for a cycle or secular trend. By the same token as others here have stated, staying away from an asset class or security until a clearer trend develops is just common sense and good discipline.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 September 2018 @ 19:00
    Excellent interview. Ms. Yamada stated succinctly that there is no trend in gold for now. From her point of view when there is no trend, she cannot predict future prices from her charts. She is not disagreeing with other perspectives but presenting her opinion as a chartist. DLS
  • TS
    Tim S.
    26 September 2018 @ 18:36
    Thank you for including a contrary opinion. It reinforces my belief in gold though even more. She seems like a lovely lady.
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    26 September 2018 @ 17:59
    RV can't side too much for the bull case. There have been several videos positive gold over the last 2-3wks. A balanced view perhaps.
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    26 September 2018 @ 15:39
    Louis, please let us know immediately when you see the TOP in equities!!! OMG, what the hell is going on with this Trading Ideas program? Dump it!
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      26 September 2018 @ 17:54
      Hey! Best idea I've heard all day...
  • rr
    rlw r.
    26 September 2018 @ 16:30
    The ratio of Up - Down Thumbs is a great sentiment read. A lot of folks don’t like hearing the ‘other’ side of their trade. All the more reason - to consider the bear case.
    • CE
      Carol E.
      26 September 2018 @ 17:36
      WONDERFUL to have the 'legendary Louise Yamada' on Real Vision. Her view is to be carefully considered.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      26 September 2018 @ 17:52
      Is that a bear case? I don't think so. I am a gold bull long term and I agree - gold will go up when equities go down and probably not before. In any event I agree with G.S. it was a waste of time and elementary at best. Sorry Louise.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    26 September 2018 @ 16:19
    Gold has been in trouble for at least 5 years, she makes some great points (she usually does). That said her opinion aligns rather nicely with the gold bull case as well. The theme I heard was A trend lasts until it doesn't. Thank you RVTV.
  • CR
    Carmen R.
    26 September 2018 @ 16:08
    "Louise likes to bet against gold when it breaks decisively breaks $1200" look at the chart at the end of the video when that statement was made. If you bet against it every time it broke that threshold you've had a very poor performance since 2015.
  • lc
    lynn c.
    26 September 2018 @ 10:39
    There was no trade presented here. Although I unfortunately agree with the analysis (I'm a huge long term gold bull), saying not to buy something is not a trade idea.
    • DR
      David R.
      26 September 2018 @ 12:58
      Sure it is. No trade is a trade decision. She makes an excellent technical observation; wait for clarity. Otherwise feel free to gamble. US stocks are the perfect casino right now, and rigged like one too.
    • V!
      Volatimothy !.
      26 September 2018 @ 13:53
      I agree David. This is actually a good time to make this point. Patience. Wait for the opportunity you can't pass.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    26 September 2018 @ 10:48
    The Dow-to-gold ratio absolutely tanked in the 1970's....the last time we had stagflation. Could the US-China Trade War cause higher prices and lower volumes? This is called Stagflation
    • DR
      David R.
      26 September 2018 @ 13:08
      Yep. So could the rise of socialism in the US, which wreaks all kind of economic havoc. The last big wave of socialism that swept the US was in the 1970's, an awful decade of stagnation. Looks like US voters are in the mood for that again, in which case USA will be a giant SELL. And then that Dow-gold ratio could reverse sharply like before.
    • DR
      David R.
      26 September 2018 @ 13:11
      ^ typo: Stagflation, not stagnation.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    26 September 2018 @ 10:46
    How is equities priced in gold a significant momentum indicator? How can you compare equities in 1929 to today? I mean this 'analysis' is about the silliest take on gold I've seen yet. What about another ratio - global fiat money supply to gold in weight? It tells you a completely different story. Just because equities are high right now, does not mean A) they are going higher and B) gold in $-terms is going lower.