Comments
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DII am a beginner in trading options and still learning but have taken this trade. Could anyone please advise on possible actions to take with this trade? Would it be an ideal time to turn this into a put spread? And could we expect to see higher moves in EWZ in the coming months. Thanks for any advice
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DII am a beginner in trading options and still learning but have taken this trade. Could anyone please advise on possible actions to take with this trade? Would it be an ideal time to turn this into a put spread? And could we expect to see higher moves in EWZ in the coming months. Thanks for any advice
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AGthis has worked out beautifully - fantastic blend of theory + real world application more of Nancy please!
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JCI agree with comments below on Nancy doing a longer-form video on Options trading. I know almost nothing about options and learned more about options from this video than most online resources I've found. "4 ways to win" is a unique take on how (put) options work... would love to watch a longer video on this topic alone.
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RPWhy is EWZ Up today?
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NDTo provide an update on this trade idea, the EWZ is down -14.2% in 20 days and implied volatility is up +4 vol points. The ATM put would be up over 400%.
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aaShallow pitch. 1Min for your reading pleasure : 1) Inflation is the real only clear signal ->If the lack of investments from the last several years would now impede growth, then is trouble. Meanwhile, truckers fully indebted with a massive leverage on lories are idle in strikes and inflation is still dead. 2) This Central Bank is, by construction, Hawkish - No questions. 3) MDB can elect any president they choose. They vanished away PT party from all small towns in which voters tend to vote with 70 Approval rate to the incubemt party, its Coronel ( if you really want to play brl, read Celso Furtado) 4 and final) If you really want to bet smartly against brazil, bet like locals and carry massive amounts of USDBRL 2mo 25% Risk calls, hoping that one day you feel a bit sloppy and a massive 10% move happens when they are 30 DTM😝😝😝
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JJCan we have more from Nancy please ?
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CCDidn’t the markets rally when Trump was elected?
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KEAmazing understanding of option trading. I'll be extremely interested in a multi video option training from Nancy!
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BFNancy this is the best trade idea video I have seen yet. And thanks for replying to comments - I would love to see more active engagement with the community from RVTV and its contributors.
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zyWhat's the difference between shorting the EWZ etf and the put options of it and which broker offers the options?
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AMI was looking for a long USD option long term play. Looked at EEM & UUP but see more assymetry in EWZ. Thank you Nancy. Hope you can visit us soon again.
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CDInteresting idea but looking at the EWZ chart it feels about 1 month late to do this trade. Seems too risky now to buy put options in my opinion. I will do the opposite and see what happens. Good luck to everyone.
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AGWhy not buy a calendar spread ?
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SCNancy, this is a very intelligent and efficient short play. I love Quadratic's thought process regarding their trades. Being short the Brazilian ETF is intrinsically shorting the BRL as well (reducing a carry trade risk)
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LKOne of my favorite people to see on RV....I love Nancy’s views and trade set ups just awesome!
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JLfull interview please
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GLAssuming skew is too flat, I understand tou ATM puts will benefit from increased call skew if your direction view realized itself but wouldn't you want a touch a way otm puts in there so that they benefit form rising put skew? (for extra kicker) Very good video. Cheers.
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SHSeriously impressive.
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PBI found this a really professional video! Great Q&A! Massive thanks!
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M.Hey everyone - Unfortunately there was a mistake in the original conclusion to this video. The expiry and price of the option were not correct. Thank you for bringing this to our attention. Over and out, Milton
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JGThe 5 and 7 month at the money put options on EWZ look expensive to me. I am confused.
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rrBrian is a great addition to Trades, thks RV. RV needs more Nancy on Options. A very useful 15 min!
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WGSo to JG's remark below, I think the issue here is that pricing and break even point provided by the host in the last minute are disconnected from the pricing I see and assume JG saw for the options. Not sure when this was filmed, but my chart shows these options never trading anywhere near the $.60 price provided by the host. Ms. Davis reiterates her rationale for liking the option pricing below, but that's not the concern here. There's confusion based on the details provided in the last minute of the video and the market prices a couple of us are seeing. Good interview, btw.
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JMWhere does one get access to such cheap options. The current Nasdaq option chain for EWZ October 2018 for a strike price put is trading at $ 3.45 to $ 3.95?
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JSThe problem with this trade is that locals are actually buying stocks and buying USDBRL to hedge it. So one thing is offsetting the other. I don't know if the Bovespa will continue going higher, but giving so many players (particularly local hedge funds, which are big in Brazil) have this trade of long Bovespa + long USDBRL, an unwind of this could produce mediocre returns giving the offsetting nature of the trades. USDBRL was around 4,20 at the high of the Brazilian crisis, with Dilma being impeached, tremendous twin deficits and GDP plummeting. Now USDBRL is 3,70 and we are in a very different scenario. Hence unless we see some big shock i don't see the ccy going much higher here. The election play is still far away. A bit easier to see a stock market correction led by the s&p. But in that case EWZ might not be the best vehicle.
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EQThis came in the right moment. I hope some of you can help me figure this out. She mentions the Interest Rate differential between BR and US. Yesterday I was doing a relative Analysis for MXN, COP and BRL vs USD. Surprisingly... If you draw Interest rates and bond yield differentials between any of these 3 economies and the US vs the respective Ccy pairs, IR and BY differentials depict a negative correlation with the currency pair. That is, a (10Y USy - 10Y BRy) spread "should be" positive correlated to USD/BRL but that was not the case it was indeed positive correlated to the inverse of it BRL/USD. Same happened with USD/MXN and USD/COP. I even went deeper and for USD/MXN I calculated, GDP and BOP growth differentials. Both yielded the same outcome. Normally, performing this type of analysis with DM currencies, it works as it is supposed to work. Is there a reason for that?... I mean they are emerging markets, should they be treated differently?... y view at least on Yield differentials might be that when bond yields in Brazil rise that is sign of carry trade unwinding and therefore it would lead to a depreciation of the currency. I might be right, but for IR, GDP and BOP differentials I have no clue.
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JJExcellent!
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RDWhere are November options listed?
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PUvery good! She also resembles Lady Gagga
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NvBig fan. Great idea and Brazil is a big overweight in EM - crowded trades....
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JSBest so far