Oil vs. the Yield Curve

Published on
August 22nd, 2019
11 minutes

Oil vs. the Yield Curve

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Nick Colas

Published on: August 22nd, 2019 • Duration: 11 minutes

Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, says investors may be making too much for the recent yield curve inversion. He believes that oil rallies have played starring roles in many prior recessions. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Colas analyzes the recent market volatility, breaks down some important economic signals, and presents a unique hedging strategy. Filmed on August 21, 2019.



  • MN
    Mario N.
    3 September 2019 @ 00:52
    Very interesting. Thanks for a great interview guys
  • EC
    Earl C.
    30 August 2019 @ 19:50
    Good interview & gave it a thumbs up even though I disagree with his thesis. For one I think it is on the shallow side. Did he not leave out a historic size recession in 1982 that was in part from my recollection of standing in a block long unemployment line from a big drop in oi prices. Please correct me if I am wrong on this.
  • AB
    Anne-Marie B.
    27 August 2019 @ 22:35
    Very good interview !
  • MF
    M F.
    27 August 2019 @ 12:46
    RV Editors/Interviewers...has the "Trade Ideas" format changed...this used to be a punchy, specific, actionable place for trade ideas...the last two "Trade Ideas" I have watched are fine but not trade ideas, just short investment thoughts interviews. Let us know if the format has changed or call it something else, so at least we know what we are in for. I attach my same comment from a few days ago from another "Trade Idea" with the same comment (which was the most highly up-thumbed of that interview thread, so perhaps others agree with this respectful request. (comment below from another "Trade Idea" the other day) Nothing wrong with the nice and well-informed speaker. My issue is with Real Vision Editors or Interviewers that continue to place investment conversations in the "Trade Ideas" category. I continually have to write this feedback comment which is annoying. RV, please keep "Trade Ideas" how it originally started..namely a specific, actionable trade idea, with an Entry Price, Target Price, Stop Loss Price, Timeframe, Catalyst, and Risk to the Trade. The aforementioned is what makes a trade idea, rather than investment view or investment conversation. Nothing wrong with having investment views or investment conversation, but then RV Editor, just label them as such and put in another category, or if you want to have the interview as an actual "Trade Ideas" and put them in the "Trade Ideas" section, then remind the interviewer to ask the guest the six specific criteria questions above on Entry Price, Exit, etc. Again, nothing wrong with the interview, just label it properly so for those of us looking for actual, actionable, and specific trading idea setups--rather than an investment conversation--we don't waste our time. Thank you.
  • JC
    Joshua C.
    26 August 2019 @ 15:37
    Typo on the summary slide, "TECHNELOGY", and I think there's an "of" missing between periods and volatility?
  • NP
    Nick P.
    26 August 2019 @ 03:00
    "Recession" search on Google trends is at the highest level since 2009. Media and social media influence us more than we know compared to other recessions. People and companies start to tighten up because the talk of recession affects people who control buying in households and companies. You can see these non-traditional data points being more accurate and predictive.
  • JW
    Jon W.
    24 August 2019 @ 17:15
    Looking at the long term Google Trends for "coupon" I don't see any trend prior to the last recession that would have indicated it. It's very good at predicting Christmas though. :) https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=coupon Similarly I can't see any trend indicating a recession for "unemployment". It more seems to be a January/New Year thing: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=employment Am I missing something?
    • JW
      Jon W.
      24 August 2019 @ 17:37
      Oops, I screwed up the search in the case of "unemployment". The correct search is: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2006-06-01%202010-01-01&geo=US&q=unemployment Maybe I need to look harder, but at first blush the trend there seems to be approximately the inverse of what was happening to the SPX.
  • KP
    Kelvin P.
    24 August 2019 @ 08:15
    Oil price is low because of the shale revolution... so the trend is broken in this case
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    23 August 2019 @ 03:38
    Apparently it takes 10 barrels of water to get one barrel of shale oil. Is that too obvious a theory to blow up shale oil? Or is it just the fact that shale oil companies haven't any free cash flow? Higher oil prices should be coming....
  • PM
    Patrick M.
    22 August 2019 @ 18:54
    Great quick piece, next time more about bacon cheeseburgers please.
  • AW
    Aaron W.
    22 August 2019 @ 07:16
    Alex, shhh let the guest talk more! Would have lived to hear more of his datapoints, he has them, just ran out of time.
    • AR
      Alex R. | Real Vision
      22 August 2019 @ 18:15
      :) this is good advice
  • GF
    George F.
    22 August 2019 @ 12:54
    Can US/NATO and friends keep Libyan, Iranian and Venezuelan oil off the market forever?
    • MN
      Maverick N.
      22 August 2019 @ 17:26
      Great question! One thing to remember is that US refineries need heavier crude to blend with the lighter to increase their GRMs. There's two sources for that in their vicinity- Venezuela and Canada. With the political lunacy going on in Canada, it will be hard for them to allow Venezuelan crude off the market. That being said, they certainly had a timetable for said oil to change hands but Russia's entry into the game (boots on the ground in Caracas) has changed it. We will have to see how this unfolds.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    22 August 2019 @ 14:58
    Energy is by far the most hated sector of the mkt. It would take very little to get it going. It's been considered uninvestable for some time now.
  • TB
    Timothy B.
    22 August 2019 @ 09:57
    I don't search for "coupon" anymore, what's a coupon anyway? LOL We search for "discount code" or "special offer" or "promo" or "buy one get one free" this generation. Also we don't search for unemployment. Why would we want to search for a way to lose a job? That's crazy! We're all search for "jobs, jobs, jobs" or "employment" or "positions available" or "submit application" or "apply for a job" or "now hiring".