Putting the Sell-Off in Context

Published on
August 7th, 2019
14 minutes

“The Cheapest Stock You’re Going to See”

Putting the Sell-Off in Context

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Jessica Rabe

Published on: August 7th, 2019 • Duration: 14 minutes

Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, breaks down the historical significance of Monday's sell-off. In this interview with Alex Rosenberg, Rabe explains why a 3% move, down or up, is relatively common outside of this year's low volatility environment. She also provides the four buy signals that investors should watch out for at this point. Filmed on August 6, 2019.



  • JK
    Jay K.
    4 September 2019 @ 03:44
    So wealthy people are using bitcoin as a means to initiate capital flight? They should just simply outlaw it and be done with it.
  • RO
    Robert O.
    11 August 2019 @ 17:20
    Compare this video interview with: THE TURNING POINT MASTER The Interview · Featuring Milton Berg and Grant Williams which is basically covering the same topic. One has decades of experience and results and one doesn't.
  • GK
    George K.
    7 August 2019 @ 11:14
    Does anybody find this frequentist approach useful, or is it just a millennial thing?
    • JC
      Joe C.
      7 August 2019 @ 16:46
      Was going to say the exact same thing. Can't say it's exclusively a millennial thing... I see macro tourists of all ages touting frequentist statistics on FinTwit. "X% of the time this happened, the market was up T time later!"
    • NP
      Nick P.
      7 August 2019 @ 23:50
      Not if their data doesn't recognize Dec 2018 had a massive pullback, leading to a positive Jan 2019 for stocks. Tracking over a calendar year is meaningless. In this case, you can chart stocks and correlate them to Chinese new year, Thai new year, or even Balinese new year and make investment conclusions based on it.
    • JH
      Johannes H.
      11 August 2019 @ 10:42
      markets are driven by psychology so yes, people look at up or down numbers and act on them. good to have a frequency of probabilities
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    11 August 2019 @ 10:34
    Tough crowd below. Pluses are - looking at an historical perspective that spans prior to 1980. Disciplined approach for trading/investing - patience in looking for confirmation of thesis. I would be great to have the young lady also offer stops or exit strategies referencing the same historical data. A market up an average of X% post a circumstance is a weighting which includes both up and down results.
  • AW
    Aaron W.
    7 August 2019 @ 06:42
    Thank you for being so prepared and bringing the DATA! Yes!
    • WB
      William B.
      11 August 2019 @ 04:30
      Are you a friend or relative?
  • WB
    William B.
    10 August 2019 @ 22:55
    Not up to RealVision standards.
  • MS
    Marcio S.
    10 August 2019 @ 19:44
    This is not risk management and you cannot buy down and look it for 1y. Mark-to-market? What % of scenarios turn into 20% return? What is the return when it doesn’t happen? I understand 4% moves tends to put market oversold and creates good short term opportunity, but don’t think the thesis is investable. This reminds me of Druckenmiller saying... People buy because they thing market drop too much, and this is the time to short. Lastly, How was the other assets in comparison with S&P? Can you check if Gold had a trend? Yield curve was inverted? Nevertheless, it is always goos to hear a different point of view, I just think this one is weak
  • MR
    Mitchell R.
    8 August 2019 @ 13:32
    Sorry appreciate the effort; I see she was nervous; but I think the majority would never take financial advice from someone with no real world experience... BTFD is not a trading strategy at this time... sorry!
  • LD
    Logan D.
    8 August 2019 @ 12:10
    As we say in Australia - this lady is a dingbat.
  • NV
    Nicholas V.
    8 August 2019 @ 09:23
    Sentimentrader.com does analysis similar to this every day. Much more depth though.
  • PN
    P N.
    8 August 2019 @ 03:05
    What a comically low-effort take.
  • JW
    James W.
    8 August 2019 @ 02:47
    Where is the edge here? Who hasn't long already churned this data repetitively.
  • JF
    John F.
    8 August 2019 @ 01:37
    Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
  • EF
    Eric F.
    8 August 2019 @ 00:32
    I’m now at the point where I think you should drop trade ideas. I appreciate you want diverse opinions on the platform, but I’m also finding inconsistent quality and having Recession Watch one week and then many people here talking about dip buying is just mutually exclusive.
  • EP
    Eddy P.
    8 August 2019 @ 00:25
    Thanks Alex and Jessica. It is interesting looking at the historical statistical data . I hope to see her on again .
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    7 August 2019 @ 23:49
    There should be a minimum track record for someone to appear on RV. Not even CNBC goes full millennial like this. Sold to you.
  • jH
    jonathan H.
    7 August 2019 @ 23:33
    She is a millennial who has not seen a bear market or down cycle. She can finds lots of historical data occurrence fits her narrative. I stop watching it after minute 5
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    7 August 2019 @ 21:22
    Bring Jessica back later this year to evaluate her forecast and process. Enjoyed the historical prospective.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 August 2019 @ 18:34
    Excellent interview by both Alex and Jessica. Great job!
  • OC
    Otto C.
    7 August 2019 @ 16:49
    Historical data can be helpful when applied in conjunction with cycle data. However, we are at the end of the business cycle so I'd expect a further drop before we get a considerable bounce.
  • RS
    Ruben S.
    7 August 2019 @ 14:35
    whats the max draw dawn in this "buy into 4% drop" strategy? its fine to look 1y later but the path is also important....
  • AP
    A P.
    7 August 2019 @ 09:44
    She is great! Welcome to trade ideas Alex.
    • AR
      Alex R. | Real Vision
      7 August 2019 @ 14:00
      Thanks A!
  • BF
    Brad F.
    7 August 2019 @ 11:48
    Regarding the BTC component: is the thesis that Chinese citizens are buying and holding bitcoin as a store of value or are they using it as a medium of transfer to hold dollars instead? If the latter then the price action may not necessarily be reflective of capital flight (as they would be neutral buyers and sellers) but the volume might be a better tell.
  • BF
    Brad F.
    7 August 2019 @ 11:45
    Excellent work Jessica. Come back soon.