The Yen s Next Move

Published on
September 25th, 2018
12 minutes

The Yen s Next Move

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Max Wolff

Published on: September 25th, 2018 • Duration: 12 minutes

Max Wolff, chief economist at the Phoenix Group, has an idea for trading the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. He explains what he's looking at, key levels to watch out for, and how to make the trade, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on September 24, 2018.


  • SB
    Stewart B.
    30 September 2018 @ 12:32
    Was that long, or short, USDJPY? :(
  • BP
    Byron P.
    30 September 2018 @ 11:04
    what a second rate analysis and perspective, from his pathetic self-deprecating tone to his trade strategy. I don't want to pay money to watch this. Stick with the big guys and quality, not volume RealVision.
    • BP
      Byron P.
      30 September 2018 @ 11:08
      and its not a safe haven! The yen has benefited historically when funds close their carry trades! There are other economies at 0% now.
    • BP
      Byron P.
      30 September 2018 @ 11:08
      and its not a safe haven! The yen has benefited historically when funds close their carry trades! There are other economies at 0% now.
  • NG
    Nick G.
    25 September 2018 @ 20:58
    Can I suggest you do a Scoreboard with a % P/L for the various contributors? Might concentrate their minds.
    • RA
      Richard A.
      27 September 2018 @ 16:40
      Nick, yes, Yes, YES! Been meaning to suggest this. Would love to see it, with P&L% at the end and along the way, max drawdown % during that time etc. and it should be somebody at RV doing the final accounting vs. the speaker, or a post Mortum segment lol.
  • JC
    James C.
    26 September 2018 @ 23:26
    This is a bad one. The Yen hasn't "recovered" going from 80 to 115, it's weakened.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    26 September 2018 @ 22:04
    Maybe Max will be right but taking a position against a government that 'owns ' the bond market and stock market and has shown a tendency to defend its markets FX and otherwise don't like those odds.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    25 September 2018 @ 16:59
    Does anyone ever play that guitar in the background? If those are Dimarzio pickups, I'd go long the bridge humbucker and short the neck single coil.
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      26 September 2018 @ 00:38
      any requests?
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      26 September 2018 @ 10:27
      Anything from Guns ‘n Roses
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      26 September 2018 @ 17:01
      How about going One Step Beyond and treating Grant Williams to a little Madness? That way you can use the single coil pickup and force me to cover my short position.
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    26 September 2018 @ 15:32
    RV better hire someone who knows FX or at least a QA Editor. OMG!!!
  • PD
    Paul D.
    26 September 2018 @ 09:49
    I don't think he was looking for 119, he was looking for 106!
  • CS
    Carlo S.
    26 September 2018 @ 05:21
    I agree with Norman below. I wasn't sure whether he was bullish or bearish until the end.
  • SB
    Stuart B.
    26 September 2018 @ 00:42
    if USD/JPY goes from 100 to 80, the yen is strengthening. This was not made clear and I think the trade idea at the end is going the wrong way but it was tough to follow. Otherwise, I thought the ideas on trade were interesting. He's right not to get stuck on rate differentials.
  • SH
    Steve H.
    25 September 2018 @ 20:17
    There's a myth - repeated here - that JPY is a safe haven/flight to safety currency. It isn't. It's a carry funding currency, which gets bought when carry reverses on risk aversion. I've yet to meet non-Japanese real money which sees red on its screens and runs to JPY.
    • MC
      Matthew C.
      26 September 2018 @ 00:11
      Totally agree, same as the Swiss franc at -0.75
  • OM
    Omar M.
    25 September 2018 @ 18:49
    Interesting and different thought process Thx for sharing your thoughts!
  • RD
    Ravi D.
    25 September 2018 @ 16:42
    not a fan
  • NC
    Norman C.
    25 September 2018 @ 13:44
    Up or down 6%? How is that great risk/reward? This segment was frankly pretty lame. I honestly wasn't sure which way he was going on the Yen until the end of the segment.