Waiting for Yields to Sink

Published on
July 30th, 2018
16 minutes

Waiting for Yields to Sink

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Komal Sri-Kumar

Published on: July 30th, 2018 • Duration: 16 minutes

Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, still likes buying 10-year Treasury bonds. Citing catalysts including the potential impact of trade tensions, he discusses why yields should fall by the end of the year, in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on July 27, 2018.


  • TV
    Tyrell V.
    27 June 2020 @ 15:25
    Great short video which when you now view in hindsight was spot on.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    9 November 2018 @ 18:50
    Good luck with that 2.4% target by year end 😁.
  • DR
    David R.
    31 July 2018 @ 18:58
    Ditto,.. Outstanding short interview!!
  • RM
    Russell M.
    30 July 2018 @ 14:47
    I did not hear him address the affect of increased Treasury borrowing to fund the US tax cuts and Fed QT efforts including escalating the balance sheet runoff to $50 billion/mo in October. This would tend to prevent the 10 year from falling to 2.4% I would think.
    • GL
      G L.
      30 July 2018 @ 21:02
      Not too sure about the QT impact, because: i) it can easily be paused or reversed, ii) we have to consider global liquidity, which is still at record high levels, iii) QT is being offset by fiscal stimulus - this is why they be so bold with the bond roll-off rate. Then, add trade uncertainty, the near USD20trillion debt pile in the US (and the increasing % of GDP consumed in interest payments at current levels, let alone higher yields (so the Fed will step in), demographic trends, the twin deficit and the fact that the fiscal stimulus is just taking growth from the future, and you have a situation that doesn't look too good for rates.
    • DR
      David R.
      31 July 2018 @ 16:46
      Agreed overall ML, except that $50B roll-off per month against the total debt is like a pimple on fly's butt rather than bold. It should be rolled-off as fast as it was built up, IMO that'd be "bold". But sound money is only for sound nations.
  • KK
    Kiriakos K.
    31 July 2018 @ 07:14
    Good interview. One thing I don't understand is why banks cannot make money when the Central Bank interest rate is low. A bank profits by lending at a margin that depends on the risk of the loan. For example if the rate is 7% and the Bank is lending out at 9% isn't it as profitable as lending at 2% when the rate is 0% (?) Further more if the rate of the Central Bank is 0% doesn't it make bank lending less risky? A bad loan cannot creats a loss bigger the initial capital amount since there are no extended loss by accumulation over time. (?)
  • CW
    CC W.
    31 July 2018 @ 06:34
    Nice video. Dr. Sri Kumar is pretty clear and to the point.
  • GL
    G L.
    30 July 2018 @ 20:28
    ...And the interviewer did a good job too. Good segment all round.
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      31 July 2018 @ 01:05
      Cheers. Thank you, Sir.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    30 July 2018 @ 18:30
    Brian looked surprised to hear a 15 to 20% correction within a year. I thought that was a conservative number.
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      30 July 2018 @ 21:03
      Not so much surprise, but more excitement. I anticipated that our chat would cover bonds and was excited in that moment to also get his view on U.S. equities.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 July 2018 @ 20:48
    It is a pleasure to listen to Dr. Sri-Kumar. His facts support his predictions and he may be correct. My uncertainty gauge, however, is off the scale. Since I do not have to invest, I will wait. DLS
  • GL
    G L.
    30 July 2018 @ 20:27
    Komal is excellent. We need to have him back for a longer segment. I think he has been consistently right on a number of fronts over the years, and he is a very good orator.
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    30 July 2018 @ 19:02
    "Give me a year for us to see a correction". Awesome. One can say that any given year. There was very little value-add in this video
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    30 July 2018 @ 17:55
    Excellent. Please have him back for bigger longer macro analysis of all markets.
  • JT
    Jimmy T.
    30 July 2018 @ 15:12
    The video is only 15 min, but the home page shows 25 min. The interest rate environment controls everything else.