25:47

EssentialWe Got the Message

What's the Bond Market Telling the Fed?

Featuring James Helliwell

Dec 07, 2022 • 25 minutes

Essential

We Got the Message

What's the Bond Market Telling the Fed?

As short-term factors drive a year-end rally, keep your eyes on rates, inflation, and commodities demand.

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Featuring James Helliwell

Dec 07, 2022 • 25 minutes

Although it’s technically in bear market territory, the S&P 500 Index seems to be confirming its seasonal tendency with a year-end surge. But, unlike previous Santa Claus rallies, this one will likely be met with a collective “bah, humbug!” from equity traders who sold into 3,500. As this move is arguably a product of liquidity and positioning factors, it’s important to remain focused on the macro fundamentals as we enter 2023. From the top down, James Helliwell discusses China’s growth trajectory, other global drivers of commodities demand, and whether this inflationary shock will morph into a structural issue. James also breaks down the simmering battle of wits between the bond market and the Federal Reserve, and he shares some thoughts on diversification and hedging the prevailing environment as well.

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