The Inflation Fairy Tale
Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as “money”? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding “no.” Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields are, in fact, deflationary — contrary to conventional wisdom. They pull no punches as they describe the “zero lower bound trap” that the Federal Reserve now faces, drawing upon their research into Japan. Lastly, Snider and van Metre analyze the March spike in Treasury prices and explore whether the funding pressures are over or if March was just a preview of what is to come. Filmed on October 5, 2020.