The Macro "Endgame": Growth, Gold, Deflation, and the Dollar

Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Filmed on January 26, 2021.

Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper growth, ultimately leading to deflation.

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