Gold Inside Out

Featuring Rhona O'Connell

Rhona O’Connell is Head of Metals, GFMS at Thomson Reuters and the brains behind their annual Gold Market Survey. In this fascinating interview with Grant Williams, Rhona breaks down the interplay between supply and demand for an in depth explanation of how the gold market really functions. Filmed on May 17, 2017, in London.

Published on
5 June, 2017
Topic
Structural flows, Gold
Duration
54 minutes
Asset class
Cash, Commodities, Currencies
Rating
31

Comments

  • KL

    Kathlyn L.

    2 4 2018 02:11

    1       0

    Get her back on each year!

  • DC

    Dave C.

    29 6 2017 03:37

    0       0

    "So what those two tell us, between us, last year, is that material has been coming back out of some of the traditional consuming regions, coming back into Switzerland for re-refining, maybe from jewelry into bullion, whatever, and a lot of it has come back into London vaults because there's nowhere else for it to go." And within one month we get this.

    https://tinyurl.com/yabl6zfe

    ...hmmm.

  • NT

    Norman T.

    27 6 2017 09:19

    0       0

    I'm not sure the passing clouds added to the interview!

  • SP

    Simon P.

    22 6 2017 12:23

    0       0

    Just got the end after 3 weeks.
    Very revealing. The reason we pay for RV!! Well done.

  • JN

    Jill N.

    11 6 2017 08:02

    0       0

    Loved this interview !! So enjoyed listening & learning to the highly knowledgable & articulate Rhona & add Grant into the mix , results in a powerhouse Masterclass in gold.
    Really Brilliant - one of the best on RVTV from a seasoned subscriber & global investor ..

  • VS

    Victor S.

    9 6 2017 15:22

    0       0

    a very knowledgeable bright woman on the subject indeed. Hope she talks again in the future.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    9 6 2017 15:22

    0       0

    a very knowledgeable bright woman on the subject indeed. Hope she talks again in the future.

  • JV

    Jason V.

    9 6 2017 11:16

    8       0

    Having read the full report and re-listened to this interview, I must say Rhona's knowledge and explanation of the real gold market (free from the plethora of conspiracies out there) is remarkable. Of all RVTV's gold interviews, I would say this one by Rhona and all of those with Simon Mikhailovich are the very best. I hope Rhona becomes a regular interviewee here on RVTV (perhaps a detailed discussion on the workings of 'Loco London' and the LBMA would be of great interest).

  • DS

    David S.

    7 6 2017 20:50

    0       0

    In the post-modern world many investors want simple answers or conspiracy theories. This presentation shows that there are no simple answers in the gold market. Although rarely a conspiracy theories will pan out, the overwhelming number are fiction. If you understand the fiction vis-à-vis the reality, you make money when everyone believes, but you pull the plug or go short when reality starts to set in. DLS

    • DS

      David S.

      8 6 2017 18:59

      0       0

      For a great analysis read "The Soros Lectures" by George Soros given at the Central European University, Copyright 2010. DLS

  • SS

    Sam S.

    7 6 2017 19:16

    0       0

    Superb all around.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    7 6 2017 16:45

    2       0

    Very useful to hear Rhona's thoughts who as several others have commented knows her subject matter. However I remain sceptical of many of the facts espoused here including in relation to ETF data and central bank action. She seemed very keen to douse conspiracy theories at every opportunity but sadly many of these turn out to be conspiracy facts for anyone prepared to do a little digging. You only need to read Dimitri Speck's "The Gold Cartel" or listen to the testimony of Andrew Maguire to the CFTC to realise all is not as it officially appears in the gold market, and that the massively traded futures paper market driven by the bullion banks (almost cetainly often as a proxy of the Fed and other CBs) controls the price regardless of physical fundamentals. However Chinese developments with the Shanghai gold exchange offer increasing hope that may not always be the case!

  • JV

    Jason V.

    7 6 2017 11:12

    0       0

    An interesting video of Rhona O'Connell giving evidence before a Treasury Committee on manipulation in the gold market. A little dated (from 3 years ago), but still informative.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egB9vRwqjls

  • ED

    Ethan D.

    7 6 2017 03:25

    0       0

    Wish Grant had followed up on her comments on platinum. That is a market where the detailed supply and demand type work she is doing would be more useful

    • MS

      Matt S.

      8 6 2017 15:51

      1       0

      if you follow the link below to the gold report you can also get the silver and platinum reports free too

  • RS

    Roger S.

    7 6 2017 01:56

    1       0

    Keep in mind that even though cost of production has come down, oil is the bigest component of production cost. If that changes significantly so does cost of production

  • CY

    C Y.

    6 6 2017 21:15

    1       0

    Your video guys must be goldbugs because that is a dope entrance to the video.

  • MH

    Marco H.

    6 6 2017 18:32

    1       0

    My first thought was: Here we go again, yet another magical gold story. And although I knew quite a number of aspects, Rhona does know her thing. And she has a great way of presenting them. Big compliments for Grant as an excellent counterpart. If you were to watch one last gold story this year: this is it!

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    6 6 2017 08:13

    5       0

    Fantastic. I learnt a lot. Always great to listen to someone with deep subject knowledge

  • DY

    Dmytro Y.

    6 6 2017 06:00

    0       0

    Interesting interview and maybe best in Gold section at RVTV. Thanks to Grant to bring this subject. I can only suggest making this more practical and detail oriented such as supply and demand data, cost of production (in greater details), price forecasting, trading recommendations, if you will. Thanks again but looking for Improvement in the future! :)

  • jd

    john d.

    6 6 2017 05:50

    8       0

    Awesome interview. One part in particular: "Why does gold fall during a crisis" struck me like a kick to the balls. Of course. c. "Gold trades T+2 whilst securities are mostly T+3. Gold is sold to obtain cash more readily to meet margin calls". I have struggled with this counterintuitive fact for some time. Cheers John.

    • RD

      RP D.

      6 6 2017 21:54

      0       0

      I understood this to mean that there is a structural incentive with this arrangement that encourages and "explains" gold sell off's on a crisis. Kicked me right in the nuts.

    • VV

      Vanessa V.

      9 6 2017 02:14

      0       0

      Jeff Sniders covers this topic in one of his interviews. Basically he says because gold is universal it can be used in any global currency. So when there is a banking collateral crises, gold 'falls' because it is used as a liquidity stop gap. In other words, when all else fails and they can't get USDs then they repo gold. Jeff says it better - well worth watching! :)

  • JV

    Jason V.

    6 6 2017 05:44

    2       0

    Talk about food for thought -- that was a banquet for contemplation! The depth of investigation and the unwavering focus on the facts brought to mind Sherlock Holmes! Certainly presents a different take on the gold market, and the strength of the argument is hard to deny. Much to ponder. Another brilliant interview.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    6 6 2017 04:02

    1       4

    I was disappointed with the history and the emotion around a gold bar. Incas were using gold in 1300s, did they have a secret connection to Europe and the Middle East to get them to get the gold bug? The cameraman holding a gold bar was just emotional, affected by the razzmatazz of gold in the 21st century. He would have been so affected with a hand shake with the pope or Stephen Hawking (depending on his preference). People in Asia who hold gold bars don't get "the religious feeling". Sometimes I feel RVTV lowers the bar and gets involved with the hype. (BTW, I do have gold in my assets )

    • MA

      Mujtaba A.

      6 6 2017 09:39

      0       0

      Let them get emotional. Take the other side

    • MS

      Matt S.

      8 6 2017 15:47

      1       0

      "did they have a secret connection to get them to get the gold bug?" - that's the whole point; it's universally accepted as magical and money.

  • KS

    Kim S.

    6 6 2017 00:49

    10       0

    I'd like to see a brief debate/discussion between her and other credible people regarding the allocation of gold in the ETFs. This is the first time I've heard a credible source suggest there isn't a problem with the ETF allocation.

  • BK

    Bruce K.

    6 6 2017 00:27

    2       0

    Fabulous. Just the facts ... and quite a lot of facts to digest.

  • VM

    Vincent M.

    6 6 2017 00:15

    1       0

    I love the differing views as that is what makes markets... another reason to be a RV Partner

  • RA

    Robert A.

    5 6 2017 23:56

    0       0

    Excellent presentation. Right or Wrong I did take away that perhaps the conspiracy theory surrounding the rehypothecation arguments and the physical not being in the Vaults, at least according to her, may not be as strong as it seems to be. GLD and IAU may NOT be such a bad cost effective cache for a portion of one's gold holdings? Before the "Physical" believers get all over me---I sold all my GLD a couple of years ago and now use other vehicles and own some the old fashioned way---stored in the ground by competent Miners.

  • PD

    Peter D.

    5 6 2017 23:38

    3       0

    Great stuff Grant.
    Real eye opening comments on:
    1. Gold leasing (she downplays it, says it's decreasing).
    2. Cost of production (had no idea it had fallen that much).
    3. Shanghai Gold Exchange and the possibility to internationalizing the Yuan (she concurred it was a possibility).
    Frankly, she was quite credible.
    Will have to revisit the conspiracy theories...and to re-listen to the interview.

    • DM

      Dan M.

      6 6 2017 01:13

      0       0

      That may be the average cost of production, but the cost is over $1100 for some of the marginal production.

  • PN

    Paul N.

    5 6 2017 21:07

    0       0

    Gold wont break out of its long term downtrend until it's clear that the Fed wont raise rates again. Might happen as soon as next week!

  • DC

    Dave C.

    5 6 2017 21:06

    7       0

    Ah... commentary from GFMS. Always interesting to hear and at such an opportune time too!!. Grant - please reach out to Koos Jansen so that another perspective on this topic - particularly that of gold demand from China and the past track record of GFMS in measuring this Chinese demand. This perspective should be laid out before this audience.

    • DC

      Dave C.

      6 6 2017 10:20

      1       0

      Pending an interview with Koos, the following article by Koos on this topic may be of interest. https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/the-great-physical-gold-supply-demand-illusion/

  • AA

    Ali A.

    5 6 2017 20:18

    6       1

    Interesting. Many fears around the gold market dispelled here. Seems healthy, well supplied, liquid and not overly leveraged

  • LV

    Luís V.

    5 6 2017 19:57

    1       0

    Well done. Congratulations. Very informative. An once in a year interview?
    And I echo other viewers: to have some discussion over these numbers and market dynamics would be important too.

  • RN

    Robert N.

    5 6 2017 19:15

    4       0

    Having downloaded the report mentioned, I see there is another one from https://www.ingoldwetrust.report/media/5c/cc/59/8a/in-gold-we-trust-2017-compact-version-english.pdf with a short version (linked) and a longer version. It would be helpful if the knowledgeable in this area pointed to areas of agreement and disagreement.

  • vt

    vadim t.

    5 6 2017 18:15

    1       3

    Ok, finally it's pouring some cold water on gold bucks here! Maybe it'll save some money for anybody who pays attention.

    • TM

      The-First-James M.

      6 6 2017 00:04

      3       0

      I don't know. From what I took away from this, there's a only small probability we see the price fall in a big way from here. Looks like the Gold market is starting to put in another bottom to me. No catalyst for major upside right now, but one never knows. A Corbyn result in the UK election this Thursday will probably make Sterling holders of Gold glad they own it given the FX Markets have clearly priced in a strong Theresa May win. From my own observations on social media, Comrade Corbyn will win the Generation Snowflake vote...

  • MR

    Max R.

    5 6 2017 17:50

    8       0

    It would be interesting to have Josh Crumb review this interview with comments. Challenging each other's diversity of opinions is the path to true knowledge. Thanks

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    5 6 2017 16:59

    10       0

    Fantastic. Arguably the most thorough Gold interview so far. I will definitely be watching again this week!

  • BF

    Bruce F.

    5 6 2017 16:54

    0       0

    Brilliant

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    5 6 2017 16:53

    4       2

    That's great. Now where is the price going?

  • dd

    darrell d.

    5 6 2017 15:58

    5       0

    Its interesting that physical demand doesn't really affect price. Is it because there is so much paper gold traded that it can absorb?

    • BG

      Bruno G.

      5 6 2017 18:18

      6       0

      Yes
      The comex is a illegal corrupt manipulation of the gold price that banks use to keep restrain the gold price to continue the narrative that the US economy and hence the dollar are strong. Not conspiracy just reality yet to play out

    • EF

      E F.

      5 6 2017 21:09

      2       0

      Physical demand is in fact the only thing that affects the longer price trend. What I think she meant is that the amounts delivered are tiny compared to what is traded in the price-setting futures market.
      It is unlikely this circumstance will change as long as hot money keeps running into the commercial's hands who enjoy the benefit of huge synthetic supply creation and insight into the actual physical bids.
      It'd be funny to see how the graph would look like if it wasn't possible to trade gold on margin at all, perhaps the lesser volatility would have attracted more investment, not that we'll ever know.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    5 6 2017 14:45

    3       0

    Wow! Truly, truly educational. Fascinating! Thanks.

  • M.

    Milton ..

    5 6 2017 13:54

    23       0

    To download the research report on gold discussed by Rhona, click here: http://financial-risk-solutions.thomsonreuters.info/GFMS

  • CE

    Christopher E.

    5 6 2017 13:38

    7       0

    An absorbing interview with a fascinating lady, an expert in her field. I know it's a corny comment - but it was pure gold.