Contagion Risks and Gold Opportunity

Published on
24 September, 2018
Topic
Emerging markets, Europe, Gold
Duration
29 minutes
Asset class
Equities

Contagion Risks and Gold Opportunity

Featuring Greg Weldon

Welcome to the debut of Real Vision’s brand new show, “In The Tank.” In this inaugural episode, expert trader Greg Weldon steps out of Think Tank and in front of the camera to cover emerging markets, Europe and gold. He also touches on central bank divergence. Filmed on September 14, 2018 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Think Tank is Real Vision’s premier written research service where you can get valuable insights from professional traders like Greg Weldon every week. Learn more at www.realvisiontt.com.

Published on
24 September, 2018
Topic
Emerging markets, Europe, Gold
Duration
29 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
40
Sharing

Comments

  • AT

    Alison T.

    30 10 2018 20:53

    1       0

    Almost unwatchable due to the constant changing of camera angles.

    You are making a talking head, not aiming for an Oscar!

    Made me feel seasick.

  • BM

    Beat M.

    14 10 2018 08:34

    1       0

    it would almost be too perfect...

  • DY

    Dmytro Y.

    2 10 2018 04:29

    3       1

    Track record: 22 Jan 2018: Technical Trader: The Power of Platinum
    Greg Weldon, founder of Weldon Financial, explains why he thinks platinum is set to soar in 2018. He discusses the technical setup as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand.
    Attention: Platnum price PEAKED on 25 Jan 2018 at USD 1015 and then over the year dived to under USD 800.
    Just saying!

  • DS

    David S.

    1 10 2018 19:56

    0       0

    Negative interest rates in Germany generate revenue just like US tariffs are a surrogate border tax. It is getting harder and harder for governments to generate revenue. DLS

  • DR

    David R.

    30 9 2018 23:12

    2       1

    Really GREAT to have had Greg in here and also in Think Tank again recently. Preferred the Think Tank pub last week which had much more detail with the huge chartbook.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    30 9 2018 17:08

    0       0

    Greenspan

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    30 9 2018 17:06

    0       0

    The pain of holding gold has been high maybe I’ll be paid for patience and endurance sooner rather than later.
    It sounds like it’s early to sell equities but the green soap comment ie: liquidity echoed by many since rings in my ears often.
    I think I’d rather be early on this one.
    Thanks RVTV

  • PG

    Philippe G.

    29 9 2018 17:48

    0       1

    Excellent!

  • MB

    Michael B.

    28 9 2018 12:04

    4       0

    When someone like Greg is so sure about whats coming you need to pause. Remember how bearish Dave Rosenberg was this past spring? He was very sure and made a compelling case for huge recession and market correction. Many charts it all made sense. Well.....

  • DW

    Daniel W.

    27 9 2018 15:41

    3       0

    "Who wants to be short gold now"? ME

  • KA

    Konstantine A.

    27 9 2018 09:34

    7       0

    Too much zoom in / zoom out of the camera.

  • AS

    Adam S.

    26 9 2018 22:19

    5       0

    About 12 minutes in, accompanied by a splash chart, Greg compares Monthly Consumer Interest Payments to Monthly Retail Sales, and says that consumer interest payments are 65% as large as retail sales. But the BEA NIPA data for Personal Interest Payments is reported as a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B069RC1). Shouldn't nitpick cuz I'm so often wrong myself, but seems interest payments should be a twelfth of the number Greg reports, if he wants to make an apples-to-apples comp to Census Bureau monthly retail sales (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAFS). Big difference between 5.5% of retail sales and 65%.

  • RM

    Robert M.

    26 9 2018 22:12

    1       0

    Great to see some sanity being inject back into the collective consciousness.

  • WH

    WADE H.

    26 9 2018 20:59

    0       0

    Will Trump declare the USA "bankrupt" to not repay it's debt?

  • SL

    Steven L.

    26 9 2018 19:08

    2       1

    i agree with the jerky video comments. Loved the content but I've been a Greg fan for years. It would be interesting to know how the "debt reset" he described would work for the pension funds and insurance companies that have purchased the debt that's getting reset.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    26 9 2018 17:20

    3       1

    Excellent stuff - please have Greg on again soon, perhaps in an exchange format next time.

  • sb

    sandeep b.

    26 9 2018 04:02

    2       1

    Y’all need to relax. He was out here calling for Dow to hit 6-700 Few years ago- with his big megaphone chart on the Dow.

    Cmon man.

  • TS

    Todd S.

    26 9 2018 01:26

    2       0

    Excellent insights - we’ll done Greg!

  • TB

    Tad B.

    25 9 2018 23:30

    9       0

    Great interview, want more of his thoughts. Feeling less anxious about holding the junior miners now.
    Not too keen on the multiple 'big head-little head' camera edits though... 🤢

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    25 9 2018 22:36

    4       0

    Awesome analysis with some unique insights into global markets. I think this is the calmest I have ever seen Mr. Weldon, wish the interview was longer!

  • SS

    Steven S.

    25 9 2018 21:12

    4       1

    Both brilliant and comprehensive! Thanks Greg.

  • BM

    Beth M.

    25 9 2018 20:42

    2       1

    Really enjoyed his analysis and setting timefames...very thought through and helpful !

  • WM

    William M.

    25 9 2018 20:27

    3       1

    simply awesome .. love content from Greg every time.

  • RE

    Renato E.

    25 9 2018 19:49

    9       0

    Great presentation, but the constant camera angel switching is too much. Greg has enough energy, no need to underline that with this kind of video editing.

  • WM

    William M.

    25 9 2018 17:53

    3       0

    What an amazing guy Greg is! And not only smart and articulate but 6'10" and full of tremendous energy. I always think he's really a wizard from Lord of the Rings - here to raise the alarm and prepare us... thanks Greg!

  • VS

    Victor S.

    25 9 2018 14:18

    8       3

    Greg your missing the election ? If the dems win trump gets impeached and the eco US world STOPS DEAD! The US goes into recession see 1974 under Nixon. Great talk as always.

  • MM

    Mike M.

    25 9 2018 13:02

    3       4

    Excellent presentation. When the trap door opens it will be between 0100 hours and 0730. At 0935 it will be limit down/markets closed. This scenario will repeat for 7-10 days until they find buyers. How many FANG traders are ready? CNBC who created FAKE news will be showing reruns of All in The Family. Cable News will be dominated with Markets Crisis, grief counselors will be very busy.

  • GO

    Gary O.

    25 9 2018 06:00

    3       2

    Greg has energy and smarts that just shine big time!

    Thank you for the insight!

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    25 9 2018 05:40

    4       2

    Brilliant thesis. One of the best pieces I've heard in a long time.

  • rr

    rlw r.

    25 9 2018 03:40

    5       2

    Hoping we see more Greg going forward

  • JS

    Jefffrey S.

    24 9 2018 21:31

    6       0

    Weldon really helped with my gold pain tolerance. Especially with respect to the mining stocks. Needed that.

  • dw

    douglas w.

    24 9 2018 21:05

    3       1

    spot on in my opinion, its just about timing, may see both gold and markets close higher into eoy.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    24 9 2018 20:24

    34       1

    Weldon is always interesting. I've never known anyone with such market range and depth who could also communicate his theses so succinctly. Please have him back as often as possible.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    24 9 2018 19:35

    1       0

    Hey Greg, how would you play cash right now on a short term basis? Is there concern for "bail - in" if these scenarios take place and if so, your thoughts on avoiding that mess? Your confidence is uplifting yet humble. Thx!

  • B

    Bojo .

    24 9 2018 19:10

    9       1

    Thank you! Excellent analysis with engaging presentation. Plus, a rare mixture of confidence and humility, and great linkages between more short-term and big picture systemic issues.

  • NG

    Nick G.

    24 9 2018 19:06

    9       0

    I was ready to dislike this as yet another product of the Zerohedge School of Investing (the world will end tomorrow, own no equities, buy gold at any price, load up with tuna cans, build an atomic shelter and wall yourself in there...) which seems very popular here.
    But this guy was pretty damn good. He is right: the shit will hit the fan only when the Fed loses control of the bond market. Some time left for that. The timing might be next year, still new highs to come in SPX. Don't be early. No point. Patience.

  • F

    Floyd .

    24 9 2018 18:51

    5       0

    Greg is always high energy,thoughtful and with an up to the minute perspective that makes his work so valuable. I have considered his subscription service in the past and plan to again shortly as I look at my research budget for next year.Please bring him back again soon.As to the concerns expressed about the camera work and music ,really? Try a little focus.

  • bm

    brian m.

    24 9 2018 18:00

    11       7

    I joined Real Vision for thoughtful analysis..not camera angles or annoying music.
    Almost every time I watch a video it cuts out..I wish this wouldn't happen

  • RA

    Robert A.

    24 9 2018 16:59

    6       1

    I really enjoyed the “new” Production changes and and the new more crisp editing along with the camera work. It seems that this technique allows for getting more material into a shorter crisp segment. That said, I can see from a couple of my fellow RV’ers that the Production team may be getting pretty “close to the line” to where it could be noticeable and perhaps be approaching the “annoying” stage. As with everything else RV has done, I assume they are monitoring this new Production set up and our reaction to it. I am confident Milton will make the tweaks and adjustments to get the quality of our experience just right.

    What a great first Guest for the new format! I’ve thoroughly enjoyed everything Greg has produced for RV.

    I would also note that the “Debt Jubilee” concept is starting to become more and more a part of “the narrative” these days.

  • DS

    David S.

    24 9 2018 16:05

    5       1

    QE does not work anymore, as the money never makes into the economy. After the elections in the US, massive borrowing for infrastructure will be the next move. Infrastructure repair and replacement are desperately needed, the money will go into the mainstream economy and it will stimulate perceived growth for the 2020 election - but at what cost? DLS

  • NI

    Nate I.

    24 9 2018 15:53

    2       0

    Thanks Greg. Can you expand on the mechanics of how the central bank and the treasury would wipe out all of the federal debt?

  • AP

    A P.

    24 9 2018 15:40

    21       1

    please stop cutting the video every 2 seconds to try to make us more hooked, we are already when watching Greg

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    24 9 2018 15:19

    6       0

    Great piece Greg. Nice job. Right now Gold in USD is moving in lockstep with USD/Offshore Yuan (CNY) cross. Not the DXY. Last time DXY was at this level on the 9th of July this year Gold was at 1250. The time before that was June 14th when Golf was at 1300. Given the turmoil in EM and contagion risk to Europe, and state of possible turmoil in China which would be reflected in weaker Chinese currency and gold's current correlation to the USD/CNY cross its hard for me to see Gold moving up short term from here. We have been more or less trading the current range since August 6th. Greg's synopsis makes sense to me. I think the first technical domino that has to fall before his scenario can play out is the breakdown of the existing correlation, one way or another.

  • V!

    Volatimothy !.

    24 9 2018 14:05

    7       0

    Greg's "take me out to the ball game" piece sealed the deal for me. Credit card debt growth exceeds retail sales. This is desperation. Here are some samples of what I've seen and heard on the street. Guy gets a payday loan (loan for the amount of your paycheck at an insane interest rate) and is confused why he is still has payments 6 months later. Guy takes out personal loan to catch up on mortgage. I know several people who refinanced their mortgage to decrease monthly payment by extending the term (only one person has avoided foreclosure). Guy gets a student loan to use the excess after tuition to service existing liabilities (he said the intent wasn't for the education). All of this is done to get by or over the hump, but it only pushes the problem along. With rising interest rates it's only a matter of time before the burden is too much to bear.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    24 9 2018 13:57

    31       0

    I think I'm really going to like the new show (In the Tank) but PLEASE stop jerking the camera shots around (constantly taking a new shot/view of the interviewee as he talks) - it's very distracting and adds NOTHING to the interview. Don't mean to sound harsh but during the whole interview I was being distracted by the constant movement and not able to focus on the content. I finally just stopped watching the video and went into self-imposed "podcast" mode (I just closed my eyes and listened - much better)! Thanks, and appreciate your continued efforts to bring new and fresh material to RVTV!

  • dj

    daniel j.

    24 9 2018 13:45

    2       0

    He is just great

  • CM

    Christopher M.

    24 9 2018 13:40

    1       0

    I would love to get Greg's view on $GDX $GDXJ or if he sees this as a complete pure play on physical gold?

  • GF

    George F.

    24 9 2018 12:55

    2       1

    No mention of the forever war? One explanation for Fed Policy is using sanctions, tariffs, and the value of the US$ to support war aims, in particular, regime change in Iran. The theory that the US gov has to print money or the voters will 'vote them out of office' seems obsolete, Fed Gov doesn't find money printing at this point convenient.

    The test of the 'fed will print money' theory is ongoing. Was Puerto Rico bailed out after Hurricane Maria? So far no money printing. Will the Carolina's be bailed out. So far no money printing. Will multi employer pensions be bailed out, supposedly there was supposed to be a vote on the matter already? Let's see, but so far no bailed outs. Shouldn't the Fed be flooding the markets with cash right now?

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    24 9 2018 11:55

    5       0

    I agree with Greg because of the short position Gold presents an insane optionally position and then I'll add the only other sector that I know that is miniscule that presents the same if not greater opportunity if even a little interest returns is uranium/nuclear sectors. The valuations are upside down.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    24 9 2018 11:43

    11       0

    Greg is exceptional. His breadth of knowledge is truly inspiring. I have no idea how he can keep on top of so many moving parts...

  • CD

    Chris D.

    24 9 2018 10:26

    10       0

    Greg is simply THE best on RV. Great to see him here again!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    24 9 2018 10:13

    14       0

    Loved it! I have always enjoyed watching Greg on RVTV and listening to his views. I totally agree with his “dollar debt” as the thesis for the next crisis. Whether Greg is right as to timing or how exactly the next blow up occurs, only time will tell. But his advice on gold has to make sense. I cannot understand how any astute investor interested in wealth preservation, or professional money manager looking after other people’s money, can risk not having a reasonable exposure to bullion regardless of whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment. I suspect it is because so many “respected” central bankers have derided gold over the decades, while not practicing what they preach when it comes to their own bank’s reserves. You only have to look at the Word Gold Council’s quarterly reports which show that since 2010 the net holdings of global central banks have increased every year, including another 193 tonnes in the first half of 2018. In total 10% of known gold reserves are held by central banks. why? What do they know that we don’t? Maybe nothing of course, but “Easy Money Al” epitomised this hypocrisy, as anyone who has looked at his comments on gold from his time as Fed Chairman, compared to his early career as an Ayn Rand disciple, and again post Fed, will know. From being totally anti gold at the Fed ( I wonder why!), he now advises anyone willing to listen to make sure they own a gold hedge in preparation for the debt reckoning in fiat money. Traders who know what they are doing will of course supplement their bullion base with exciting but riskier investments in gold miners, but that can never replace the argument for most of us to simply hold physical bullion which should be the base hedge for all economic and market eventualities. Thank you RVTV for this new exciting series which has certainly got off to a flyer with Greg’s thoughts!