A Geopolitical Recession

Published on
August 2nd, 2019
Duration
32 minutes

A Geopolitical Recession

The Interview ·
Featuring Ian Bremmer

Published on: August 2nd, 2019 • Duration: 32 minutes

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of GZERO Media and the Eurasia Group, sits down with Vincent Catalano to discuss the fracturing of the global geopolitical order. In their conversation, Bremmer identifies where the breakdown in globalization is happening, and why mistrust of legacy institutions is growing. Bremmer also reveals why geopolitical conflict is a huge risk factor for global markets, and what a less globalized world means for investors. Filmed on July 24, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • AH
    Ahmed H.
    20 August 2019 @ 04:59
    excellent - more of this! geopolitics matters now, great to see more focus on it
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    6 August 2019 @ 13:30
    Great interview. However, I do disagree with this mantra that Trump has split the country. The FBI investigation based on the Steele dossier, pushed by Clinton operatives and McCain, along with a willing and complicit media who got the election wrong have divided this country. If the Democrats had instead let Trump act as President and their characterization of him was correct, he would be one and done. However, their very actions have made it very likely he will get a second term.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 August 2019 @ 01:57
      One sad commentary on current politics in the US is there would have been political chaos with either candidate or party. The fight and not the common good is paramount to power and winning. DLS
    • JP
      Jerome P.
      21 August 2019 @ 19:11
      "let Trump act as President"....The same way Republicans did when Clinton and/or Obama was president? It was M. McConnell that said the #1 goal of (his) Congress was to make sure Obama was a one term president. Bremmer is correct, media has fractured this country in half and is the only entity to profit from it....And have they ever $$$$!!! Lust of money at the expense of our society and country will be the end of The US.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    5 August 2019 @ 21:38
    Excellent. Appreciate the authenticity on Ian's part!
  • F
    Floyd .
    5 August 2019 @ 21:37
    Reasonable interview,but Ian is already wrong predicting that the trade war wouldn't escalate.
  • SW
    Sam W.
    5 August 2019 @ 18:13
    Team, how can I play real vision from my WiFi speaker? Doesn’t seem to be the option on the app. Cheers
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    4 August 2019 @ 15:13
    I really get pissed off with the infomercial at the end
    • DS
      David S.
      7 August 2019 @ 01:58
      There are bigger things to get upset with. DLS
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    4 August 2019 @ 14:43
    okay al pacino
  • JS
    J S.
    4 August 2019 @ 14:23
    I couldn't increase the speed on this interview ... I think it is just a one off as the other interviews watched today were all fine.
    • VC
      Vincent C.
      4 August 2019 @ 21:25
      fyi - You can click on the transcript and that will move you along.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    4 August 2019 @ 08:37
    After 2 weeks of great videos by Raoul, was totally , a let down.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    4 August 2019 @ 08:34
    Never, ever underestimate USA. I know for my life time USA is an absolute super power. Even if China becomes a democracy today, will take them many years to building a working institutions. Corrupt CCP, mafia Putin will not succeed. Recall 1980s, Japan will own USA & Europe , etc. we
    • ii
      ida i.
      4 August 2019 @ 21:33
      I often have the impression that most Americans do not realize that they have the reserve currency, the privilege that gives them in economic and geopolitical terms and how they should handle this privilige with care, i always get this impression even with very educated americans. They travel so much, but in general do not seem to grasp this. if someone can demostrate that I'm wrong on this I will be very relieved, otherwise it is a big problem, because it means that it is America that overestimates itself without understanding what's at stake
    • MN
      Maverick N.
      6 August 2019 @ 17:45
      Go to the Kyle Bass interview on China. I am paraphrasing here but - one of the seven who run the country i.e Wang - said that the Plaza Accord was a lethal mistake on part of Japan. China will never succumb to such an arrangement. They will continue to challenge America on all frontiers - the war that everyone is dreading is still far far away. They are not ready yet. Michael Pillsbury's book is a good starting point too.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 August 2019 @ 02:06
      The Great American generation of WWII established a new world view of building a better world in balance. That generation and those ideals are gone. We will not see the likes of them again. DLS
  • VU
    Vikram U.
    4 August 2019 @ 07:35
    I grew up in 4 different countries as a kid and traveled to a lot more. From my experience living in a country is different to traveling to it (that's why there is a growth in the tourism industry for 'authentic' tours). I've met people from the U.S. who've traveled to many countries, lived in a Trump/Hilton hotel, ate Macers and drank Starbucks and still not be open to different cultures. IB's work and stuff is more aligned to the U.S. (than he likes to show) than looking at it holistically. There are political scientists in regions outside the U.S. (Singapore, India, Australia and China) that tend to have slightly different views. So far, when it comes to GP it seems a political scientist is influenced by the places they grew up rather than the actual content in spite of the data. And data quality can also be skewed from reading some of their stuff and going through the data sets they use.
  • GF
    George F.
    4 August 2019 @ 05:14
    Ditto MB .. and what's with Mr. Bremmer's personal attacks saying our POTUS no character? ... I think in 2016 TDS hit Bremmer hard ... that on May 26, 2019, he was caught tweeting a fake quote about Kim Jong Un and Joe Biden that he attributed to President Trump ... nowadays Eurasia Group analysis is shaky.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    4 August 2019 @ 03:43
    Played out a bit like a commercial for Ian and his services. Light on actual content. “I have a track record of being authentic with people.” he said at one point. Painful.
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      18 August 2019 @ 21:43
      He’s a charlatan
  • AM
    Andrew M.
    4 August 2019 @ 02:40
    Dude sucked
  • GW
    Geoff W.
    3 August 2019 @ 15:16
    HK is the tipping point for the world's relationship with China. RV please provide more coverage!
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    3 August 2019 @ 15:01
    Fantastic interview. Congrats to RV for scoring Ian, congrats to Vincent for conducting this interview in a way that brings value to viewers. Bring both back! 💪🏻
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    3 August 2019 @ 05:01
    This is a very weird comments section. One person who watched says Trump was criticized, and then others say, oh, thank you for saving me the time because I don't want to hear that. This was one of Ian's big points. The polarization is such that neither side wants to hear the other. And Ian was fair to both sides, and critical of both sides.
    • TM
      Timothy M.
      3 August 2019 @ 17:12
      I totally agree with you. Ian made some great points that Trump does not get everything he wants. Unlike China and Russia, we still have the rule of law in the US. I thought is was a very insightful interview.
    • CM
      C M.
      3 August 2019 @ 19:14
      Totally agree. He was factually correct on his statements about Trump without being poliitcal. If you didn't watch this video because of those comments, may say a lot about you as a viewer.
    • EW
      Evan W.
      3 August 2019 @ 20:27
      If he's critical of both sides, that is fair. But that wasn't what the comment said - and I don't want to waste time with an MSNBC type interview. RP Eddy's interview was just 35 minutes of saying Trump is an idiot without offering policy suggestions or acknowledging policy mistakes from prior administrations. I'm fine with criticizing Trump (I would criticize him as well) if there is a conversation about the circumstances that led to him getting elected.
  • PP
    Peter P.
    3 August 2019 @ 00:36
    Loved the interview, interviewer, and the interviewed. Such a treat to discuss geo politics when it drives the macro which is driving markets. Thank you both Vincent & Ian.
  • JH
    Jason H.
    2 August 2019 @ 21:14
    Central banks are a vestige of communism, we don't have true capitalism. We have a situation where by the government generates unsustainable circumstances via policy and the public blames the market for any negative outcome.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      3 August 2019 @ 04:33
      The BOE was founded in 1694. Karl Marx was born in 1818.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 20:52
      Most of us would not survive under true capitalism. Unless you are in the 1% of the wealthiest, you probably would not fare well either. If your kids dropped out of the 1%, they would not fare well either. Capitalism is an economic system, not a political system, that I believe in; it needs to be restrained with the rule of law or all we have are robber barons. DLS
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      4 August 2019 @ 02:42
      Free Market Capitalism can be restrained by the Principles of Non-Aggression and Voluntarism. Regulation and the rule of law are not antithetical to free markets, but central banks pricing and monopolising money backed by violence, and centralised control of banks and corporations is. Mises Institute and Dr Yaron Brook are worth listening to on this subject.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      4 August 2019 @ 02:53
      By the way, Capitalism is THE solution to the ravages and oppression of extreme poverty. MMT’ers go on about utilising the productive capacity of an economy, meanwhile they will debase not just currencies, but human ingenuity and spirit in short order (UBI). Free Markets however make the utilisation of the productive capacity of an economy not only more likely (less barriers to market entry), but actually fruitful (less misallocation), instead of destructive. It’s thanks to the power of free markets that billions have been and continue to be lifted out of extreme poverty in recent times.
  • AP
    A P.
    2 August 2019 @ 20:27
    An add hidden into some interesting analysis. Missed opportunity for RV imo, very weak interviewer. D.Smith, RP Eddy or Peter Zeihan would have rocked.
    • BM
      Beat M.
      3 August 2019 @ 08:09
      it’s because it is. Because we’re getting near the catalystic end of the 4th turning. Trump is a symptom, he’s your 2 minutes hate daily, god sent savior, I don’t give a s*** anymore, 3 in 1 mirror of the whole american psyche. Disclaimer: I am long $SHTF
    • KB
      Kirk B.
      3 August 2019 @ 19:21
      Beat M. makes a profound observation about the American psyche. I find that indeed most Americans either (1) hate Trump, (2) love Trump, watching media feeds that support either 1 or 2, or (3) are so feed up that they have stopped watching news all together. There is a 4th category, however: being aggressively moderate or centrist. There is a great website, AllAsides.com, that identifies the bias of most media, including those that are still in the Center with their coverage--and indeed there still are media that strive do be so. Those are the media that I follow, and avoid the left, far left, right, and far right biased media. If more of us had that focus, I doubt that it would prevent the play out of the Fourth Turning, but it might moderate its impact a little, or it would at least enable us to maintain our sanity through it.
  • RR
    Randall R.
    2 August 2019 @ 19:08
    Like Ian but disagree strongly on one point: voting Trump out in 2020 will only be good for the American Left's psyche not the whole country. We are divided because globalists and liberals don't want to see their world carved up in a way they don't agree with; and the media has led this charge.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      3 August 2019 @ 05:18
      We are at this point because EVERYONE who votes for Trump in 2020, is an admitted and whole hearted racist and anti-free-market-capitalist. We are at this point because people like YOU, Randall, will hire the lowest-common-denominator for the top office in the USA, a person who is patently one of the most pathetic people IN the USA. The media didn't say "grab them by the pussy" or "glad that Congressman's house was broken into" [subtext, because he's a dirty nixxer], Trump said that. With his own mouth. And you agree with it. This isn't some fight against liberal falsehoods, this is you saying racism is just liberal politics, when in fact it's a settled matter that is despicable and outside of the norm. You are just trying to bring it back into the norm.
    • T~
      Tshort63 ~.
      3 August 2019 @ 07:00
      Wow, Michael S. Troll much? If this is a sincere comment than would suggest fewer accusations and assertions and perhaps more questions. Michael, why are you so mad and what are the issues that bother you?
    • JT
      Jim T.
      3 August 2019 @ 17:48
      Michael S. Needs to get his presciption renewed You mad Bro? @ Michael S
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:18
      Michael S. - A little harsh, but I agree with a lot that you said. It is interesting that whoever is angry toward President Trump is not tolerated by the right, but people on the right feel they can be as angry as they wish toward people on the left. Meanwhile the problems are not being solved while everyone is doing anything to anybody to get elected with no reasonable platforms to bring the country back together. The Founding Fathers were much more respectful to each other. Plus, you had to be careful or you found yourself in a duel, not a lawsuit. DLS
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      4 August 2019 @ 00:24
      Michael S.... Don't be a hater.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      4 August 2019 @ 04:41
      What happened to all the "good [subtext, white] guys with guns" in El Paso? Open carry state. So many facts, so little time. The cops cuffed that El Paso guy standing up! Think the cops took him for a Burger King, after his mass murder, like they did with the white guy in the Charleston black church shooting?
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 August 2019 @ 14:24
      Michael S you need to chill and go to a different more public blog to make these sort of comments.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    2 August 2019 @ 19:00
    Pleasant interview .... one sticking point ? When Ian says Capitalism doesn’t work if you don’t have capital its surprising as most people in a free society earn there capital!
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:06
      In the US most have earned money, but have not saved any capital. DLS
    • PP
      Peter P.
      3 August 2019 @ 00:29
      2 separate thoughts on this: -As flagged many times on RV we live in a world where central bankers want to halve the value of the people’s hard earned savings every 30 years through explicit inflation targeting. Savings which elderly and pensioners should have and be able to draw from are instead forced to take risk and thus pay the financial market machine who shaves its devils share of savings every year. -I only once agree with something Jesse Jackson said and never forgot it, back when he was running for President in the 80s: “Capitalism without Capital is just another ism.”
    • MS
      Michael S.
      3 August 2019 @ 05:29
      But is most of the capital in a free society earned? THAT'S A VERY DIFFERENT THING. Likely not. And that's the important point. You are really a contributor? Lol. To "have" capital, means being born a multimillionaire, for example, like the last three decades of Republican presidents, right? To "earn" capital is like all the rest of us other dolts who weren't smart enough to be born multimillionaires.
    • JT
      Jim T.
      3 August 2019 @ 17:50
      @Michael S. Hail Comrade!
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:24
      Tim T. - I am old so I may not understand why you are mixing a fascist term hail with the communist term comrade. DLS
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    2 August 2019 @ 18:06
    The “I-metric”: the number of times a guest uses “I” introducing an idea, sentence, or topic; especially pertaining to ones own virtues & accolades. He’s off the charts. Love Ian’s calm and thoughtful style.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 August 2019 @ 17:44
    "A house divided cannot stand." This is true for America and for the free world. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:26
      Looks like we are divided 2 vs. 2. Interesting. Laugh-In. DLS
  • AB
    Alberto B.
    2 August 2019 @ 17:12
    Is this guy for real? Does he blame Trump to devise america? So, before was wonderful, a paradise. But now, the world is a mess because of Trump? Also agree with Flavio G. on this. "capitalism doesn't work for people who don't have capital". Our knowledge, our labor are capital as well. We exchange our labor for money. Thanks to capitalists, we have products to buy to satisfy our needs and luxury.
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 17:26
      He does not blame President Trump. He both agrees and disagrees with certain policies. DLS
    • EW
      Evan W.
      2 August 2019 @ 20:37
      Thanks for this comment. Saves me wasting time listening to a guy who says Trump makes tons of policy mistakes and implying the counterfactual that Hillary Clinton would have made none (e.g., RP Eddy made this argument on Real Vision's podcast). Right. Every policy a Democratic President makes is perfect...
  • RM
    Russell M.
    2 August 2019 @ 16:01
    He clearly doesn't like Trumps behavior but despite that makes an effort to objectively evaluate his accomplishments. How many people try to be as objective as he tries to be despite their feelings? Not too many. He provides a worthwhile objective overview of the current state of world politics.
    • JT
      Jim T.
      3 August 2019 @ 17:53
      Agree, he has a stilted viewpoint and makes unsubstantiated claims about his character, but isn't full NOD a TDS, like Michael S above who is full loon
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      4 August 2019 @ 03:00
      Agreed Jim, bizarre that RV, of all platforms, attracts anti-capitalists/socialists!?!? Lol! Can’t quite fathom that one... 🤔
    • DS
      David S.
      4 August 2019 @ 19:51
      Jim T. - I do not think anyone on the right or left is in doubt about President Trump's character. President Trump's supporters believe that he supports one or more of their goals and will have their back. This is normal representative democracy. DLS
  • dm
    david m.
    2 August 2019 @ 15:55
    "And one of the reasons why Trump, despite talking about putting tariffs on the remaining $325 billion of Chinese exports to the US, has been reluctant to do so".... yeah.... that didn't age well.
    • KW
      Ken W.
      2 August 2019 @ 18:20
      🤦‍♂️
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:28
      Nor will it go well. It is just a tax on the American consumer. DLS
  • RM
    Richard M.
    2 August 2019 @ 15:05
    "Trump has divided the country", I think this shows the political bias that runs thru Ian's otherwise decent geopolitical analysis (and unfortunately his "analysis" then just becomes "commentary" and is then much less useful). And the reason why I say this is Ian has obviously missed the forest for the trees as the country was ALREADY divided which LED to the election of Trump (if Bernie had not been sandbagged by the DNC he would probably be the president). For less politically biased geopolitical analysis I recommend George Friedman or Peter Zeihan.
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      2 August 2019 @ 15:30
      But has he missed the forest for the trees? He's acknowledging that Trump is a symptom not a cause.
    • SW
      Scott W.
      2 August 2019 @ 15:32
      That's a critically important argument - that Trump is elected BECAUSE the country is so divided. I content there's a very strong undercurrent in the US that cannot stand political correctness. GW Bush was labeled racist but took the high road. Mitt Romney was labeled racist but took the high road. Trump is labeled racist and says "okay, let's fight". I suspect his willingness to fight dirty IN RESPONSE is the reason he's potus.
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:11
      It is not political correctness. It is the economic welfare of individuals in the society. If all boats were lifted with globalization, there would not be this division. DLS
    • EW
      Evan W.
      2 August 2019 @ 20:39
      Thanks for this comment - keeps me from wasting time watching this content. I always check the comments before watching "geopolitical" videos on Real Vision.
    • gg
      georgy g.
      2 August 2019 @ 23:03
      Exactly... all this old globalist system views peddling
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:32
      georgy g. - We are living and will be living in a globalist world. It fits global corporations. The fight is how much globalism is good for the citizens of each country. DLS
  • SH
    Sean H.
    2 August 2019 @ 13:50
    Agree or disagree, doesn’t matter. Good stuff.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:58
    If anyone would like to see another viewpoint on this geo political stuff - see George Friedman at GPF which stands for Geo Political Futures.
  • CH
    Chris H.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:35
    Just another anti Trumper. Complete BS assessment.
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      2 August 2019 @ 15:33
      He has a balanced view on Trump - leaning negative, which is his right (freedom of opinion, anyone?), but also acknowledging that he has done some things right and is being treated unfairly at times - and you conclude that he's an anti-Trumper. You're actually proving his point.
    • JM
      John M.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:15
      He's an anti Trumper but not virulent. What he fails to mention is that many on the left or 'progressive' or whatever label we can attach to Trump oponents are very confrontational, even aggressive (think ANTIFA or the various disrupters at Trump rallies). They are quick to fire people whose values they disapprove (not thinking that they were hired to do a job not for their values) or charge 'racism' (or mysogynie or anti-gay/transgender ...whatever!) because they think that destroys not only the opponent's ideas but the opponent. Seems to be authoritarianism usually wrapped in the guise of moral superiority. In the Middle Ages I guess they would have charged 'heretic!'
  • ID
    Igor D.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:32
    Bremmer has been spinning the same buzzwords since he was a regular on Charlie Rose. Always a lot of words but not much to say.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:32
    Vincent was more interesting that Ian in this interview... which is not a criticism of Mr. Bremmer.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:30
    "capitalism doesn't work for people who don't have capital" It does ! As workers of some else with capital !
    • gg
      georgy g.
      2 August 2019 @ 14:07
      He makes a comment like that, there no point in talking
    • SW
      Scott W.
      2 August 2019 @ 15:34
      Definitions matter. One might define capitalism politically - as the economic system and circumstances in the US since Greenspan (to lock in on a reasonable time-frame). Another might define capitalism as a free-will exchange of resources acquired or produced without theft or force. One might believe the latter defines the best way for humans to conduct affairs and as such should be allowed to flourish, and still be critical of attributes extant under the first definition. As a poly-sci, Mr. Bremmer is more likely using the first definition.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      3 August 2019 @ 05:52
      Please! Even though all the so-called capitalists whined for years about how no one was making capital investments "because who knows what's going to happen under this socialist, black, Kenyan president", suddenly they get massive Trump tax cuts and what do they use them on? Stock buybacks!!! There you have it: "Capital Working for People Who Have Capital" TM Are you going to deny that? That's where almost all the money went.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:38
      Michael S. - In all fairness some of the tax refund went to lobbyist, political donations, travel, lunches, dinners, hotel rooms in Davos, etc. etc. DLS
    • MS
      Michael S.
      4 August 2019 @ 04:45
      David S: Ha! Okay, I'll buy that! Cheers!
  • DS
    David S.
    2 August 2019 @ 12:21
    Excellent interview. Best of luck with G-Zero-Media and helping to bridge the gap. It is the best way to solve most problems. Splitting the country into two echo chambers is the best way to win an election and solve no problems. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    2 August 2019 @ 11:53
    If Russia's main policy goal is the disruption of the current world order, Russia should be ecstatic about the last two and a half years. DLS
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      3 August 2019 @ 08:12
      And of course they are. They helped the guy to get into office after all.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    2 August 2019 @ 10:13
    Vincent has the goods! He is a keeper.
    • WD
      William D.
      2 August 2019 @ 11:13
      He’s a natural, how has network TV missed him?
  • TR
    Travis R.
    2 August 2019 @ 07:33
    Mr Bremmer always provides thoughtful analysis. However he is left leaning so you know his inherent bias. Good interview.
    • TR
      Travis R.
      2 August 2019 @ 07:36
      Vincent Catalano seems incredibly smart. RV needs to find a way to keep him around.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      2 August 2019 @ 12:32
      Indeed, he leans left and doesn't believe in free-market forces as something desirable.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 August 2019 @ 21:43
      Flavio G. - From the far right everyone is a leftist-bigot. From the far left everyone is a racist- igot. Just emotions. DLS
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      4 August 2019 @ 03:10
      David S, and from a Libertarian/AnCap viewpoint, anyone arguing against free markets is arguing against freedom, voluntarism, the sovereignty of the individual and the best shot we have at global prosperity and an end to government sponsored BS wars. This is surely the worst bigotry of all.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 August 2019 @ 20:02
      Shanthi S. - If the world were one country, you would be correct. With hundreds of countries each with a different form of government and its citizens/wealth to “protect”, we will never get to your utopia. I am not sure that humans could even function in this society. We are frail creatures. Nevertheless, it is a great aspiration. DLS
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    2 August 2019 @ 07:17
    Funny, He did put tariffs on the last 300 of goods.
    • ag
      amin g.
      2 August 2019 @ 07:53
      yea but this piece was filmed 24 July. Though yup i thought the same
    • DS
      David S.
      2 August 2019 @ 19:14
      The list is not out yet. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      4 August 2019 @ 20:03
      Golf clubs and hats may be excluded from higher tariffs. DLS