Albert Edwards Interview – Part 1

Featuring Albert Edwards

Albert Edwards, Chief Global Strategist at Societe Generale, speaks to Raoul Pal for his first video interview in two decades. In the first of this two-part series, Albert discusses ‘anointed’ market booms, the bond & equity markets in a world of warring currencies, and his views on the endgame in Japan.

Published on
27 February, 2015
Topic
Macro, Global Outlook
Duration
53 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities
Rating
16

Comments

  • SK

    Stefan K.

    20 11 2016 15:46

    0       0

    The formatting got garbled up. The correct returns are:

    Stocks (S&P500): 2.243% p.a. / Total: 45.270%
    Bonds (UST10s): 1.755% p.a. / Total: 34.016%
    Gold (XAUUSD): 6.661% p.a. / Total: 197.258%

    Here's the link with screenshots https://imgur.com/a/6ZpZp

  • SK

    Stefan K.

    20 11 2016 15:41

    0       0

    I have a question: In the beginning Raoul asks Albert about his Ice Age thesis and the Bond call he made in 1996. Albert then claims that Government Bonds with the Coupon reinvested have outperformed equities since the call was made in 1996. I decided to check up on that using the excellen Total Return Calculators on https://dqydj.com/
    and at least according to them Bonds haven't outperformed Equities on a Total Return Basis (Dividends and Coupon reinvested).

    I then calculated the total returns for Bonds (UST10s), Equities (S&P500) and Gold and picked as a starting date the End of the Great Equities Bull Market (January 2000) which would help Albert's Ice Age Thesis since the final ramp up on equities between 1996 - 2000 is excluded.
    His claim is still incorrect, equties (S&P500 with Dividends reinvested) have outpeformed bonds with the coupon reinvested even then.
    Proof:
    https://imgur.com/a/6ZpZp

    The Total Returns adjusted for inflation of the 3 asset classes are:

    Stocks (S&P500): 2.243% p.a. / Total: 34.016%
    Bonds (UST10s): 1.755% p.a. / Total: 45.270%
    Gold (XAUUSD): 6.661% p.a. / Total: 197.258%

    The time period is January 3rd 2000 to November 18th 2016. What am I missing here?

  • B

    Bojo .

    11 7 2016 09:48

    0       0

    wow, this was fantastic. Certainly I can share his feeling of inevitability and sort of exasperation as to how can people think that all this will end well, and we will all live happily ever after.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    2 4 2016 13:12

    0       0

    Brilliant, get him back again this year please!!

  • GW

    Graham W.

    13 3 2016 00:29

    0       0

    Very good and more would be better.
    This is my first introduction to Real Vision and I am very pleased with the quality of presentation and quality of guests.

  • S

    Simon .

    16 2 2016 16:40

    0       0

    Not sure how 13 people give this a down vote!

  • VK

    Vinay K.

    30 10 2015 20:01

    0       0

    boss.

  • SJ

    Suzanne J.

    23 9 2015 12:05

    0       0

    Soundtrack...the blues.

  • JS

    John S.

    7 9 2015 12:47

    4       0

    For me this is one of the best interviews on RV. Absolutely outstanding. Please invite him back.

  • DU

    Don U.

    7 9 2015 01:39

    1       0

    Outstanding! Exposes the bias creating false narratives to serve government finance and discusses the CBs propensity to move the economy to a credit inflationary disaster. Academics/models - Ouch!

  • KK

    Karl K.

    7 9 2015 00:34

    1       0

    For the not as knowledgeable, I would like to hear more of the chain of events for example when the yen crashes.What will happens to US? Bond yields? Stock market? Inflation? Thanks.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    6 9 2015 17:43

    0       0

    So how will a new monetary system look like? More of the same (debt based, until debt becomes unsustainable again)?

  • MA

    Melanie A.

    6 9 2015 16:01

    1       0

    Really interesting (and funny). Now how to distinguish an idiot from a non-idiot...

  • RM

    Richard M.

    12 7 2015 14:42

    2       0

    Fantastic stuff here! This "global macro" stuff is really eye opening and thought provoking! Thank you so much for bringing this kind of material to Real Vision (pays for the service in my opinion!).

  • ML

    Marc L.

    11 3 2015 15:54

    0       1

    here's the link to the Thai-report Albert mentioned, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1996/10/01/000009265_3970716145028/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf

  • AK

    Anton K.

    11 3 2015 09:07

    1       0

    Soc Gen research? isnt that where Geraint Anderson worked aka CityBoy? Poor old Albert must have been going out of his mind in 2002-2007 :-)

  • RA

    Rafael A.

    11 3 2015 01:09

    0       0

    Having trouble viewing this. It's cutting off.

  • DP

    David P.

    8 3 2015 18:26

    3       2

    Raoul, there were a few times during this segment where you cut Albert off before he was able to complete his thought. This format gives you plenty of time, unlike the verbal brawls one sees on CNBC!

  • ww

    will w.

    8 3 2015 17:51

    1       0

    WISDOM -pure, unadulterated! Albert's not even an "Austrian"? Certainly not a doctrinaire one (like i think of myself as) Yet we all agree this ends badly. Look out, CBs & your sycophant followers!

  • pm

    preston m.

    7 3 2015 04:54

    1       0

    This is very good...keep up the great work!

  • IL

    Ian L.

    4 3 2015 16:38

    1       0

    Excellent interview- very interesting historical perspective

  • GR

    Guido R.

    3 3 2015 07:52

    6       0

    Raoul.. since most successful investors see the same thing and marvel at the stupidity and persistence of the people in charge, how long till we can admit there is intent on the part of the authority?

  • LV

    LuĂ­s V.

    2 3 2015 22:49

    3       0

    Superb content. Again. Congratulations on that. But in some parts I get only the sound and a delay in the image. Even in SD... and there is a lot of people complaining of the same.
    Milton?

  • SK

    Stephen K.

    1 3 2015 19:10

    3       0

    THIS IS WHAT REALVISION TV IS ALL ABOUT -BRAVO ON THIS INTERVIEW - "THE SIXTY MINUTES OF THE INTERNET" !

  • VP

    Victor P.

    28 2 2015 14:42

    9       0

    Maybe it is an option to have only the audio, is cases when even SD does not work? Trying for hours to watch an interview is really frustrating.

  • ML

    Marc L.

    28 2 2015 11:02

    0       0

    well done, Albert! time to launch a bank note fund I'd suggest.

  • ma

    mary a.

    28 2 2015 02:56

    7       0

    glad someone else commented about being constantly 'cut-off' from video. thought it might be on my end.
    Milton can you manage a fix here, please. mal

  • tb

    tom b.

    28 2 2015 02:41

    6       0

    I would if I could actually view an entire video without being cut off.

  • GC

    Gary C.

    28 2 2015 01:06

    3       0

    Great incite to realize great writers and thinkers like Edwards also walk on eggshells giving negative opinions to investors, as I do to my buddies over a brew or two at the pub

  • JS

    John S.

    27 2 2015 23:23

    3       0

    Superb!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    27 2 2015 22:59

    8       0

    Thought provoking views from two very deep thinkers and great also to see and hear Albert speak for the first time.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    27 2 2015 19:01

    12       0

    Brilliant conversation on global economics by two experienced wise global macro analysts. Where else can one gain this kind of valuable information. Eager for the next parts.

  • SJ

    Shawna J.

    27 2 2015 18:26

    4       0

    I'm left wondering what the actionable plan should be....gold, equities or loooong term bonds?!? I remain confused. :(

  • TH

    Timo H.

    27 2 2015 17:46

    0       0

    I think i'm now a bit wiser. Thanks!

  • PR

    Peter R.

    27 2 2015 17:33

    30       0

    Free flowing unscripted conversations like this really help me to separate the signal from the noise in the financial markets. Brilliant, Thanks