Avoiding Recession at All Costs

Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Lakshman Achuthan, co founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, takes us inside the business cycle to examine the impact of waves of QE and where we stand in terms of identifying the timing of the next recession. With an outstanding track record of forecasting cyclical inflexions, Lakshman isolates the signals that will lead to the next turning point. Filmed on May 22, 2017, in Orlando.

Published on
15 June, 2017
Macro, History
44 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit


  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    9 9 2017 15:26

    0       0

    The shock was how Grant received trhe message there is no recession for the next several months :)

  • ca

    cyavash a.

    20 6 2017 02:09

    2       0

    I enjoyed this interview because I didn't feel like I was being sold something, the guest was really knowledgeable and well spoken, and I was able to glean some specifics for follow up research. Thank you.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    19 6 2017 16:01

    0       0

    Since 1981 recoveries ,due to the Fed Greenspan standard, have gone way longer than normal -1854 to 2009 was 38.7 months ...1981 to date 103 months and this one so far is 97 months.... in other words these predictions of a recession coming later are not very special since 2007 the policy is to keep the game going at all costs? If you can call the top within a month that would be worth while call?

  • MS

    Matt S.

    18 6 2017 17:35

    3       0

    A good interview - as others have said, some superimposed charts would have been nice. And if the PMI is not a leading indicator to him... then what is?!

    As someone said here (or maybe it was Raoul on AIF) America really only has cars, weapons and aeroplanes left of its manufacturing - but I hear that Boeing is shipping off its tech to China soon, so within a few years China will be building planes to compete with Boeing and Airbus's dominance.

    I can tell you right now - I will never fly a Chinese made airliner!

  • RZ

    RICK Z.

    18 6 2017 17:13

    0       0

    I thought the comments as to," it's going to get a little bit complicated" was humorous – Grant should've reminded him he wasn't on CNBC ! LOL

  • JW

    James W.

    18 6 2017 04:11

    3       0

    This went nowhere. Whatever of value Lakshman may have to convey, we got nothing of it until the last 5 minutes, which had some very broad generalizations devoid of supporting data.

  • DW

    Devin W.

    17 6 2017 15:55

    0       0

    Glad I'm viewing this and I'm not an economist. This is where the REAL is!

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    16 6 2017 21:20

    2       0

    Great stuff. And different content to most of the other speakers. I found the call of no recession for 2017 and an industrial slowdown plausible and balanced. Grant's questions are great as always. Only part I wasn't convinced on was Australia's continued growth being the outcome of RBA policy. Australia has relatively favorable demographics, and IMHO a good part of it's growth has been driven by growing it's (gross) private and public debt strongly over the past 25 years (from a relatively low initial starting point). Thumbs up! I'd love to see Lakshman back again!

  • DS

    David S.

    16 6 2017 07:55

    5       1

    No one knows what is going to happen! There is no longer a long-term normal. The manufacturing business cycle is marginalized as a smaller and smaller part of future economies. History is no longer the future. Figure out the new, or stay on the side lines. How could you predict the future at the start of the industrial revolution? Be careful and keep a lot of powder dry. I am 50% in cash and wonder if it is enough? DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    16 6 2017 07:22

    2       8

    Constantly blaming the Fed is getting really old. Wall Street tied one hand behind their backs with mortgage derivatives that were all going bankrupt and a purposely dysfunctional Congress tied the other hand behind their back. Their mandate is inflation and unemployment. What would you expect them to do. DLS

  • SL

    Steven L.

    16 6 2017 01:57

    5       0

    It's been WAY too long since we've heard from Mr. Achuthan. I definitely replay his interviews. I'm retired and can't afford a subscription to ECRI but I sure recognize the value of the ECRI information. I wish they had a subscription option for us USA folks, that aren't investment professionals, who are interested in the USA forward indicators. Until then, I'll keep using my forked stick to figure out recession probabilities.

  • VK

    Vladimir K.

    15 6 2017 23:53

    1       0

    Fantastic interview. As an economist myself, it was a pleasure to listen. Decided to build the similar model to monitor current economic conditions.
    Surprised he didn't talk critically about the structural changes affecting the accuracy of unemployment and inflation measurements.

  • DP

    David P.

    15 6 2017 22:07

    0       0

    Great interview, but I am wondering if he gave (off camera) any indication of what part of industry is slowing the most? Is it oil, or is it Chinese manufacturing, or something else?

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    15 6 2017 21:36

    12       0

    If everything is in an upswing -Why did Trump win the election .

  • MC

    Minum C.

    15 6 2017 18:28

    1       0


  • IV

    Ian V.

    15 6 2017 16:57

    3       0

    Great interview, Grant. Thank you! Very hard to still believe in business cycles these days. I suppose the key is as he said, in the 21st century they are different.

  • ag

    anthony g.

    15 6 2017 16:43

    10       1

    good one - hopefully have him again in early 2018 ?

  • AB

    Arijit B.

    15 6 2017 16:21

    1       0

    For those interested, it's worthwhile checking out the various ECRI composite indexes on Achutan's website https://www.businesscycle.com/
    I found it more useful than the book he co-authored with Anirvan Banerji "Beating the Business Cycle" published in 2004.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    15 6 2017 15:31

    10       0

    Where are the charts? Where is the visual data to prove the point? I have no problem with his work and am sure he is correct on his point about "HARD V SOFT DATA", but even a cursory glance at the yield curve suggests there is a problem out there. What about the 52w ROC of orders or credit growth or even the 532w ROC of the coincident indicators. Investors are looking at the first , if not the second derivative at the very least. IF this turns out like 1987, God forbid, there will be very little time to time lagging indicators like Economic ones. Just playing Devils Advocate and trying to think about what the commentary means. Don't shoot the messenger.

  • JL

    Jacob L.

    15 6 2017 15:03

    30       1

    Just want to give a thumbs up to the short intros in the beginning and summary at the end that Grant has started doing. Works really well, thanks!

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    15 6 2017 14:44

    4       0

    Great job Grant

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    15 6 2017 14:36

    12       0

    I followed this guy for years. His theories make sense at least on the surface, BUT he also missed some BIG influences on the market. For example, he missed the call [many times] on the bull run that was starting in 2010-11, for example, and was almost a perma bear for a long time. Great to see him on RV for his points of view --just as with other guests. And as with other guests: they provoke our thoughts, but don't follow blindly.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    15 6 2017 14:28

    3       0

    I am not an economist but I find it hard to believe that monetary policy failed to disrupt the business cycle. Didn't it prolong the business cycle by propping up banks? If qe increased liquidity won't qe tighten liquidity thus choking off companies' borrowing? We are witnessing a commercial real estate collapse only to worsen and companies having to pay back all this corp debt for stock buy backs & reckless m&a? Shadow stats show real unemployment @ 23%. What am I missing?

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    15 6 2017 12:56

    8       1

    Yes, Grant, that was fascinating. Quite timely given there is a lot of speculation currently about where we are in the business cycle. This is a most helpful discussion. Thank you.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    15 6 2017 11:40

    8       2

    Very, very good! Best: "I am not an economist"!!!

  • DB

    Darko B.

    15 6 2017 11:28

    18       0

    I'm Australian and I suspect our luck may run out soon. We have built and are building too many apartments in the eastern cities, our property is some of the most expensive in the world, Sydney is the second most un-affordable market behind Hong Kong and we have a household debt to GDP ratio of 125%, making it the second highest on earth. I'm hoping commodities pulls us through otherwise it could get ugly.