Brexit

Published on
June 23rd, 2016
Duration
6 minutes

Brexit

The Interview ·
Featuring Marko Papic

Published on: June 23rd, 2016 • Duration: 6 minutes

Marko Papic, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research has a very out-of-consensus view on the knock-on effects of Brexit and the potential for a buying opportunity in the confusion caused by the “who’s next?” mentality.

Comments

  • DW
    David W.
    28 June 2016 @ 10:15
    Brexit
  • MR
    Marko R.
    27 June 2016 @ 23:53
    THIS is the beauty of RV that I love! Different opinions on a topic and as investors it's our job to interpret and think about the events. I'm not sure I agree with Marko's view but then again it makes me think maybe my view is wrong - keep an open mind....P.S Name's also Marko, not the same guy
  • EB
    ELIZABETH B.
    27 June 2016 @ 12:14
    To George G: I would rather live in a Middle class country and pay the taxes to live there, than live in one like the USA without a middle class. Are you American? Do you carry a gun, and drive on pot holed roads while knowing if you are injured, you have the worst and most expensive health care system? Yes, the taxes are high in France. That tax money comes from the French, not other people's money who are not French. Whose "other people's money" are you talking about? Low interest rates will stay low during your lifetime and then become negative. What do you think Yellen is doing?
  • EB
    ELIZABETH B.
    27 June 2016 @ 12:06
    I am American living and working in France. The last project of the EU is to give every resident a Global Tax ID in addition to the one they already have. The EU expect to continue on with globalization and more taxes although the French do not want this. Sadly, if anyone has a passport in an EU country, one day you will be trapped. You will become like Americans who pay tax to the USA even if you don't speak the language or ever step foot into the country. The EU is only for multinational corporations and banks. It has nothing to do with the health or betterment of its citizens.
  • GG
    George G.
    27 June 2016 @ 04:02
    The french have increased their middle class from 60% to 70%? At what cost? Assuming it was funded by higher taxes and artificially low interest rates, how sustainable is the model? Aren't they just kicking the can down the road? Puerto Rico grew their middle class as well...until they ran out of other peoples money.
  • sp
    shashwat p.
    27 June 2016 @ 02:47
    Because EZ policy has done such an excellent job of returning economic growth to Greece, Spain, Portugal and France that the youth unemployment rate is just 25%. oh wait..
  • AP
    A P.
    26 June 2016 @ 23:44
    Finally someone who understands Realpolitik. Thanks Marko!
  • DS
    DAVID S.
    26 June 2016 @ 19:41
    Great 'open' thanks guys! I am not going to bore you with Schopenhauer's quotes , but you are right.. hey a bit of carefulness is never bad in particular with these unusual rotations ...where's lumber VS Gold..:0)
  • pg
    paul g.
    26 June 2016 @ 17:21
    Agree with Mark, after who's next market should be oversold.
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    26 June 2016 @ 16:00
    Question is: Is this peak exit. Will there be a scared straight effect. Is that the second derivative black swan. Also, any reversal of this referendum would almost certainly, and ironically, ensure the future of the EU and in hindsight be viewed as their trial by fire proof of concept...and provide the mother of all fodder for the conspiracy theorists :)
  • AE
    Alex E.
    26 June 2016 @ 05:53
    I'm with William M. on this one. I see more countries leaving because, as they did in the old days, they had control of their own economic futures i.e., debt too high, devalue the currency and pay off debt with junk money! Can't be done with a Euro controlled by Brussels...
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    26 June 2016 @ 04:52
    Very interesting perspective. My brother lives in Italy. He is not old. He is upper middle class. He wants to stay in Euro zone probably because he has a job. So maybe combo of middle class with jobs and old want to not rock boat too much?
  • WM
    Will M.
    26 June 2016 @ 00:34
    Sorry, I just don't see the euro skeptics melting away after the UK leaves. I think Marco's is a little bit naive regarding the nationalistic sentiments building rapidly throughout some European countries. I think he has totally under-estimated the problems within the European banking system, the immigration issue and the PIGS appealing debt issues. Very surprised to see such a low thumbs down on this topic given the relatively shallow presentation of limited facts.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 June 2016 @ 21:58
    The European Economic Community (EEC) and the Euro Zone (EZ) must not be conflated. The EEC does not need the EZ to function well. EEC countries in the EZ should exit the EZ when it is in the advantage of their country and citizens. (How many times has Argentina gone bankrupt?) It is a very complicated question that needs to be answered by the citizens of each country. For it is citizens that have to deal with the consequences.
  • DS
    Dan S.
    25 June 2016 @ 21:51
    Should make Triumph Motorcycle more competitive. Brexit hopefully completes.
  • MB
    Mike B.
    25 June 2016 @ 20:25
    No one else will call for a referendum? Think again. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums
  • ii
    ida i.
    25 June 2016 @ 17:43
    sorry I wanted to write: Italy is a country of senior citizens...
  • ii
    ida i.
    25 June 2016 @ 17:42
    Dear William S, I live in Italy, you could be right but have you considered that Italy is a country os senior citizens? there is no rebellion or revolution in a country of old people, the mentality is that people don't want to lose pensions or purchasing power; also, Italians ( for historical reasons to complex to explain) do not worry about preserving democracy, they are don't mind having someone telling them what to do, which is what the EU is all about. So I'm not so sure you are right
  • AA
    Ali A.
    25 June 2016 @ 12:08
    More Papic pls
  • SS
    Sebastien S.
    25 June 2016 @ 10:54
    I think there's a bit of an overlap between EU and EZ considerations in the iterview. As far as the EU is concerned, I think there could be other exits in the future but probably not at the periphery who's living on EU's budget lifeline. As far as the EZ is concerned, I strongly believe nobody from the periphery wants to leave before they are able to clean up their plate and simply because they just can't afford it. Even deep left-wing politicians understand that. However, a core AAA economy with sufficient self-confidence in its economic self-sustainability (e.g. Netherlands), why not...
  • WS
    William S.
    25 June 2016 @ 09:01
    My impression is that Marco needs to "round out" his education a bit more if he wants to navigate the minefield of European markets in the next several years. Specifically, I recommend an in-depth analysis of the very unique histories of all the major players. For example, he sees no substantive movement towards "exit" in Italy. I, on the other hand, having lived in and traveled extensively throughout Italy, see Italians in a much more nuanced light. I predict a very high likelihood of Italexit -- not because they have any highly defined sense of nationalism (they don't). They have been a nation only since the mid-nineteenth century, a nation of highly disparate and often mutually hostile parts, and their national language is just about the only thing shared and cherished by all to a similar degree. That said, they are a proud people who are sick and tired of incompetent government, and therefore (much like Brexit, I believe) they will vote to leave simply as a slap in the face of the Lords of the Manor in Brussels.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 June 2016 @ 06:47
    Good interview. Another questions for me is the possible exit of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Gibraltar from Great Britain. I am not promoting this, but it is an obvious question. "Great Britain" can be stronger, better, faster after Brexit, but the economic and political structures need to be different depending on who will be in the union.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 June 2016 @ 06:22
    One big take away from Brexit for me was how wrong the English bookies were. The world stock markets followed the bookies in lock step. It may be that most of the bookies were in London; listening to people in London, taking bets from people in London. (London voted solidly for Remain.) Did the bookies sit down in the pubs elsewhere? How many bets were from outside of London? Were large bets made by hedge funds or politicians as a head fake? It could have paid off.
  • B
    Bob .
    25 June 2016 @ 05:17
    I think within 12 months the Dutch will hold a vote, and I think they will vote to leave.
  • BG
    Branislav G.
    25 June 2016 @ 04:35
    This guy is good. get him back for a longer interview on hes view with geo views of Europe
  • BG
    Branislav G.
    25 June 2016 @ 04:30
    RV you are a little late with releasing this sort of stuff especially when it impacts the market short term.. would of been nice to hear this interview on the 22nd.
  • JA
    John A.
    25 June 2016 @ 04:19
    I think that after the shock that one of the members actually voted to leave wears off, and if the UK seems to be doing ok, it will embolden the others. Then we will find out if Marko's view is correct. We will find out if these other countries are truly fed up, or just all talk.
  • JA
    John A.
    25 June 2016 @ 04:18
    I think that after the shock that one of the members actually voted to leave wears off, and if the UK seems to be doing ok, it will embolden the others. Then we will find out if Marko's view is correct. We will find out if these other countries are truly fed up, or just all talk.
  • TH
    Timothy H.
    25 June 2016 @ 02:52
    I agree that the big, important question here is "who's next?" But I'm not convinced that he's looking to the right places. Why would Italy or Spain want to leave? I'll be watching the AfD in Germany--if Brexit fans the flames of populist fires in Germany, then the fate of the EU is anything but solid.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    25 June 2016 @ 02:32
    Interesting perspective. Euro zone just spends their way into economic oblivion. Kick the can down the road again. OR Greece and others see the light and leave and the Euro implodes. What will the ECB do? More than likely something they think will help short term but make things inevitably worse in the long term. What can they do? What should they do? Let the markets discover prices...but they never will. Unfortunately, a crisis will not even change the system any more as they are in too deep, only a catastrophe can illicit change. Hate to root for that really
  • NS
    Nathan S.
    25 June 2016 @ 02:23
    Isn't Spain "spending more money" supposedly impermissible under the EU's budget deficit rules?
  • TL
    T L.
    25 June 2016 @ 02:14
    MOAR
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    25 June 2016 @ 01:11
    I think Dutch have the possibility but they need to do more work on that. Like British, they make a nice movie "Brexit the movie" which had a lots of information about why Brexit. Also i think after Brexit, Euro will go full force on "whatever it take"... which seems working until now...
  • RA
    Robert A.
    24 June 2016 @ 23:43
    Love those fresh contrarian positions! Didn't take RV long to get THAT bit to us.
  • PR
    Peter R.
    24 June 2016 @ 22:48
    An interesting perspective , although I expect there will be a follow on exit from the Greeks or even the Dutch. The whole foundation of the EU is looking very fragile. I don't see that as a good sign for the future.
  • ma
    mary a.
    24 June 2016 @ 21:47
    Excellent - Can he come back as the dust settles?