Bursting the Bubbles

Featuring Jared Dillian

Jared Dillian, author of the Daily Dirtnap and Street Freak, has a view on almost everything in the financial markets and this eclectic conversation with Grant Williams, takes in the bubbles forming in Canadian housing and other real estate markets, as well as in currencies and Bitcoin. Jared also shares his views on gold, the world’s emerging markets and what else is on his mind from an investing psychology standpoint. Filmed on May 23, 2017, in Orlando.

Published on
23 June, 2017
Topic
Housing Market, Macro, Sentiment
Duration
39 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Real Estate
Rating
66

Comments

  • yd

    yon d.

    10 9 2017 00:56

    0       0

    Bank of Canada just increased rate by .25 pts to 1% last day.
    Which makes me think that RealVision needs a date/time stamp for its videos.

  • PM

    Paul M.

    21 7 2017 14:12

    0       0

    Honest information on his thoughts, strengths, and weaknesses. Fan of the Dirtnap - and this only re-enforces my respect.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    13 7 2017 19:29

    0       0

    Jareds big picture ideas are thought provoking . He is correct however that he could never manage money as all is clients would have fired him by holding gold all the way down.

  • TE

    Tim E.

    13 7 2017 12:22

    0       0

    CAD quite strong of late? Head fake? Opportunity to short?

  • MT

    Marilyn T.

    9 7 2017 15:10

    0       0

    Poloz's Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins sounded hawkish on June 12, when she said the 2015 rate cuts had done their job. The market has priced in a rate hike on July 12 and expects a second hike later this year. After her comments, the loonie gained five cents against the USD. Let's hope the BoC opts for a rate hike.

  • SR

    Skip R.

    28 6 2017 08:13

    0       0

    KITE is what he owns. Don't think he's influenced by Mauldin at all.

  • LD

    Lyle D.

    27 6 2017 05:14

    1       0

    House prices in Vancouver have ranged from approximately 3.5 to 7 times gross family income from 1930 to 1997. Today it is excess of 10 times gross family income. Vancouver on a relative basis is very expensive. Based on history, a 25% to 35% decline in value would not be unrealistic in the foreseeable future.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    26 6 2017 15:00

    0       0

    Just sold XIU ---- right thing to do. Conversion of dollars negative, Canada taxation negative. Not smart money to stay in. Thx----It's all good!

  • sv

    scot v.

    26 6 2017 14:22

    0       0

    " I got rid of every US holding stock or bond except for one Biotech stock".

    Anyone know what Biotech stock he holds?

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    26 6 2017 03:58

    0       0

    Not that I like "this time it's different", but Australia is different for housing. Supply and demand is warped, through population growth and restricted supply. And the government doesn't have the courage to legislate. I liked Daniel Wants comment about the system (or the market!) tweaking itself as it goes along, to avoid going over the cliff 4-times-out-of-5, and every article about the housing "bubble" actually causes tweaking actions to avoid the pop. These articles also means it isn't really a bubble, there is no blind-euphoria. I don't like it, but this could go on for another 20years. Which leads to the question "what's your timeframe?" Most baby boomers will have moved on by then, so they should be negatively gearing now!

  • DM

    David M.

    26 6 2017 03:23

    1       0

    Great interview guys.

  • PS

    PD S.

    25 6 2017 21:40

    0       0

    great interview by grant as always...

  • BT

    Brent T.

    25 6 2017 20:29

    0       0

    A think piece on Canadian residential real estate would be interesting.

  • ML

    M L.

    25 6 2017 20:08

    3       0

    Just want to add: European stocks (in aggregate) have been in a bull market since March '09, along with US equities. The stoxx 600 sold off between Apr 2015 (at a record high) through Mar 2016, but is back up to within 20 points of all-time highs. Investor concern about Europe is based on NPLs at Southern European banks. If one's thesis is that this will be neatly resolved, then buy stocks on the hope of fresh highs and more QE until inflation expectations are more sustainable.

  • JH

    John H.

    25 6 2017 19:45

    2       0

    appreciate his candid admission that he is a good idea generator, but not so good at managing risk, sizing positions, and taking profits. from what I gather, his performance reflects this. a mere mortal.

  • LV

    Luís V.

    25 6 2017 19:30

    3       0

    And on top of the qualities here mentioned, the man is a great Dj! Try Dj Stochastic on a speed search and enjoy. The ideas and the music. Nice. Cheers to guest and RVtv.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    25 6 2017 17:44

    0       0

    Tangibles come from the word around mathematics, tangent. Crypro-currencies are mathematics. Today it's not just Bitcoin, it's also our brokerage accounts, bank accounts, credit cards and online everything. If the IoT goes down, we loose TOTAL access and how then do we define the price of Gold. It all has to get back up and running, then the price of GOLD will be way up. That's why I hold precious metals. I really liked this presentation. He's right----everything is game of confidence.

  • KB

    Kreso B.

    25 6 2017 14:09

    2       8

    Vacuous

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    25 6 2017 07:04

    3       0

    We sell real estate, and foreclosure real estate in particular, in Calgary and I must say...I agree with you Jared. Quite apart from the stupid markets in Toronto & Vancouver ( I say stupid because you have to be to buy there), our market in Calgary has not really had a decline of any real import since 2007. So, I am looking at the 2005 - 2006 gap and have been wondering now for at least 7 years as to how and when it will get filled. I fear it may be soon, once we see $30 oil (or lower) again.
    Have we sold our house? No. But that's another story.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    24 6 2017 21:15

    6       0

    Great discussion. Like how Jared was humble yet confident. Honest yet
    and thoughtful about every topic. Agree on most points except the Euro :) Nice work Grant. Bring on some more.!!!

  • JC

    John C.

    24 6 2017 20:10

    1       0

    That was a really great interview - thoroughly enjoyed it. Not sure I'm a fan of his Europe bullishness, but the short Canada/CDN thesis is pretty compelling. Thanks.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    24 6 2017 09:52

    1       0

    Great interview a man firmly on my wavelength !!

  • JA

    Johan A.

    24 6 2017 08:02

    1       0

    Very interesting! Just ordered his book!

  • SS

    Steven S.

    24 6 2017 07:52

    1       0

    I missed the CM Feb'17 top of $89. And amazingly it back up to $80 after being at $78 for a little while. But I thought 2 weeks ago, What if CM goes to 0 like Bear Stearns? Give Me Your Money Please by BTO. While watching the Euro, Welcome to the Crossroads by Cream.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    24 6 2017 05:33

    7       0

    Euro may well survive, but the cost on everything else will be unimaginable. It requires, that the whole continent is run by the ECB instead of elected people.

  • SS

    Steve S.

    24 6 2017 03:28

    8       0

    Canadian credit binge is incredible. Will be a massive unwind taking down real estate with it.

  • VM

    Vincent M.

    24 6 2017 01:13

    6       0

    Love the random thought.. and admissions of failure. Gold is and will always be a chaos not inflation trade...

  • RT

    Rune T.

    24 6 2017 00:44

    4       0

    Unfortunately the EU will survive, like everyone else in the world, westerners will not rise up before they go hungry. Raise the tax to 100%, monitor everything and everyone, remove every last freedom. Nobody cares until they go hungry. EU will do as politicians decide - best hope is that voting matters, but lets face it... TBTB likely wont make another Brexit or Trump style error of judgement.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    23 6 2017 22:26

    3       0

    Fun interview enjoyed the breadth and depth of the discussion.

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    23 6 2017 19:53

    1       0

    Diamonds are not a precious gem -- not a good idea Jared.

  • SM

    Sam M.

    23 6 2017 19:49

    12       0

    What do Canada and Australia have in common? China.

  • dd

    darrell d.

    23 6 2017 17:15

    17       0

    Ive sold out of the Canadian housing market a while ago and been renting. People think I am crazy "throwing" my money away. Ya. Calgary has been up as of late but I can see another roll over is WTI heads into the lower 30s. I think real estate roll over will dove tail into the pension short fall and the "slow and painful" drawdown in prices will come to pass.

    Great interview Real Vision.

  • IJ

    Ian J.

    23 6 2017 17:00

    8       0

    Jared, thanks for telling us where you hide your gems and gold ; )

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    23 6 2017 16:23

    0       0

    See that was not the case. Great interview enjoyed it immensely.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    23 6 2017 16:22

    0       1

    Jared cames across quite charming. I thought his strong opinions voiced in his letter along with his very "American" centric view point might make him come across as a legend in his own mind. Glad to

  • KA

    Kevin A.

    23 6 2017 15:20

    5       0

    I liked the comment in the opening scene about diamonds included as hard assets! Can we get someone on to talk about gems; diamonds, rubies, emeralds, etc..? How, where to buy and not get screwed?

  • GB

    Grant B.

    23 6 2017 14:59

    1       0

    Great. Enjoyed that. Lots of things to think about.

  • GM

    Greg M.

    23 6 2017 14:22

    12       0

    Jared is a great interview. I am glad you guys finally got him on Real Vision. Can't wait until he is back.

  • RE

    Rob E.

    23 6 2017 14:21

    1       0

    Great to hear the story of George Williams, it's one that's stuck with me since reading in TTMYGH, 'everyone else just got poor'.. Simon Black (tims mate) would be great for that topic too

  • js

    jacob s.

    23 6 2017 13:25

    8       0

    If multiple EMP's were to go off and "take down" the internet/electrical grid, then you should be buying lead...

  • FS

    Fred S.

    23 6 2017 12:55

    3       0

    I've read Jared's writing for a while and thoroughly enjoy it. Entertaining and thought provoking. Calls are often bit early, but worth every penny.