Can Central Banks Save Us?

Published on
July 17th, 2019
Duration
43 minutes

Can Central Banks Save Us?

The Interview ·
Featuring Christophe Ollari

Published on: July 17th, 2019 • Duration: 43 minutes

If and when a recession comes to pass, how will the Federal Reserve and the rest of the world’s central banks respond? And will their response be enough to stave off a major crisis? In this conversation with Real Vision’s Roger Hirst, Christophe Ollari, founder of Ollari Consulting, attempts to answer those critical questions. Filmed on July 11, 2019 in London.

Comments

Transcript

  • ea
    edwin a.
    21 August 2019 @ 17:48
    "M is not the issue. The real issue is V."
  • RH
    Robert H.
    29 July 2019 @ 18:39
    Christophe Ollari, I admire the way he thinks. Whether it be lowering the Euro, implementing legislation against tech, whatever, the Euro leaders will do whatever it takes to appear valiant.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    27 July 2019 @ 01:21
    "What can they do?" They need to do nothing. We need a burst. We can never have anything better than mediocrity without a burst, and the longer we wait, the worse the burst. I don't think any of this is new, but for some reason nobody ever forcefully proposes the idea.
  • KS
    Karen S.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:32
    i wasn't expecting that accent
  • WW
    William W.
    24 July 2019 @ 22:30
    The idea of a longish period of mediocrity seems reasonable to me...lots of tightrope walking...reminds me of Philippe Petit!
  • F
    Floyd .
    23 July 2019 @ 20:57
    Excellent and useful content. I left this interview with a clear idea of the similarities and differences between Christophe and others interviewed on this recession topic series. Also,Roger is an outstanding interviewer,well prepared,knowledgeable and experienced,need to see more of him. Enjoy him on the Inflection Point podcast as well. For those needing help with the hearing CO I suggest using the closed caption feature,works great!
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    23 July 2019 @ 00:35
    “The super doves will take out the bazookas..” 😅
  • DS
    David S.
    21 July 2019 @ 17:24
    I have also listened to this interview often. Each time I realize how coherent and balanced Mr. Ollari is. I will pick up another thread or idea and it fits right into the overall fabric. DLS
  • AS
    Alex S.
    21 July 2019 @ 00:15
    Uh oh, austerity measures in full effect at RV Europe. They even had to sell the picture on the wall. In all seriousness, can’t go wrong with Ollari, great insights in this as well as previous interviews. I’ve found it helpful to download the audio and listen on the commute after I’ve watched it. This makes it easier to grasp the finer points when grappling with the accent.
  • CH
    Charles H.
    20 July 2019 @ 00:17
    This was a great discussion, for which I am grateful. Although there was a hint of cautious optimism, it seemed to ignore the developing risk of a major institutional failure, a market discontinuity and contagion. Deutsche Bank will probably only be saved through state largesse, there are stories about China Minsheng's incapacity to honour $0.5T bonds, and a market full of zombie companies globally. The only way central banks avoid those sort of discontinuous risks is nationalisation of bad assets and currency destruction.
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      20 July 2019 @ 04:01
      $500mn not $0.5tn.
  • KM
    Kacem M.
    19 July 2019 @ 22:43
    Excellent interview. Accent wasn't an issue. One can pause, go back or read transcript. I would rather have someone like Christophe with excellent insight and imperfect accent than a perfect accent with a lower quality contents...
    • DS
      David S.
      20 July 2019 @ 21:00
      Hear! Hear! DLS
    • MB
      Mo B.
      22 July 2019 @ 00:16
      I could not agree more.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      23 July 2019 @ 04:49
      One can also click on "CC" on the screen.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    19 July 2019 @ 09:16
    Gonna need a bigger hole to hide my gold
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    19 July 2019 @ 03:25
    Fantastic interview! Thanks for sharing your global picture!
  • EF
    Eric F.
    18 July 2019 @ 14:38
    Always enjoy Christophe’s contributions. Makes perfect sense and I actually think in this interview he nails it. Always easy to criticise the Fed but each new chair is somewhat inheriting the problems of the predecessor, and the options are accept the consequences or pass on. Human nature prevails as well as pressure from many other sources. Where I desperately hope he is wrong is on timing. I hope we don’t see another couple of years of this as it just compounds the consequences. I just have a feeling that something will crack, as you can almost feel the creaking at the seams. It’s too big and complicated to contain IMO.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    18 July 2019 @ 02:56
    Loved this!!! Fantastic interviewer and interviewee.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 July 2019 @ 02:46
    Mr. Ollari is so rational and quick that he is hard for me to keep up, even though the accent was not a problem for me. Paraphrasing Mr. Ollari on one point: "We are post-GFC. The main takeaway of the last 10 years is the disconnect between financial assets and the real economy. CBs now know that they cannot kick-start the economy or boost real inflation. They are focusing on what they can do, which is keeping financial conditions as loose as possible." (I hope I paraphrased accurately.) This is the war we are in now. Certainly a paradigm shift from 2008. Be careful. Thank you, Mr. Ollari. DLS
  • JF
    John F.
    18 July 2019 @ 01:20
    Enjoyed this. Isn't Ollari implying that "this time is different" in that the markets will not lose confidence in the Fed (and the other Central Banks) because the CBs will be able to manipulate the markets with endless liquidity?
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    17 July 2019 @ 21:14
    Roger is such a terrific interviewer. Really draws clear insights from the guests with great leading questions. Well done guys!
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    17 July 2019 @ 19:53
    Good analysis thank you
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    17 July 2019 @ 18:02
    I was just thinking I'd love to hear from Ollari yesterday! Well done RV get outta my head!
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    17 July 2019 @ 15:54
    Another great interview. RV is really hittin' it out of the ballpark this week!
  • SB
    Stephane B.
    17 July 2019 @ 15:52
    Great interview !
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    17 July 2019 @ 15:31
    Very good interview. Thank you.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    17 July 2019 @ 15:30
    Another top class discussion with some interesting and different (from the mainstream) views from Christophe on possible CB actions. Excellent food for thought to compare and contrast with Raoul and Lakshman's insights.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    17 July 2019 @ 15:00
    Really great interview. I'm especially grateful for the subtitles as I really struggle to understand Christophe's English with that heavy French accent.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      18 July 2019 @ 00:47
      You can click on the Transcript tab and read along as he talks. Clicking on a point in the text jumps to that section.
    • sB
      sylvain B.
      22 July 2019 @ 10:22
      Come on ! I understoude everi thingue, maybi bicose i'm frenche
  • KP
    Kelvin P.
    17 July 2019 @ 14:47
    How do I enable subtitles for iPad app
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    17 July 2019 @ 13:47
    Excellent!
  • GH
    Gary H.
    17 July 2019 @ 13:29
    Excellent content. Roger does an excellent job asking the most pertinent questions
  • AM
    Artur M.
    17 July 2019 @ 12:29
    So basically Christophe is saying that FED will not cut more then 50 points as they are constraint by politics and there is still time as he sees that we are in a early stages of weakness. Raul is saying they have to cut and cut hard, maybe 100 points this year. L.A. said yesterday, he still needs few quarters before he can take any stance on recession. Looks like we need a shock outside US to get the 100 points this year from FED
    • CA
      Craig A.
      18 July 2019 @ 04:16
      They might cut hard if the stock market falls hard?
    • DL
      David L.
      18 July 2019 @ 21:46
      Christophe seems to agree with Raul on the need to cut hard when there is not much range to work with, but then seems to hesitate to go above 25 points on the first cut. My own (uneducated) prejudice is that the Fed will be more concerned about not doing enough than too much.
  • RI
    R I.
    17 July 2019 @ 12:00
    Would’ve probably been more understandable if he just spoke in French with translated captions.
    • mD
      maria D.
      17 July 2019 @ 20:09
      Ahaha!
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    17 July 2019 @ 11:54
    Great Video! I have a general feature request for the video player. Could you enable the "space" key to play/pause the video and the "left and right" arrow buttons to skip 15s? It seems to be the standard for most video-plaftorms. Thanks and keep up the good work!
    • MK
      Michael K.
      17 July 2019 @ 12:04
      Also, can the app allow pause and play when exiting the app? I often download the audio only and listen on my commute or while exercising. The app doesn’t behave like other native apple apps.
    • DM
      Dylan M.
      17 July 2019 @ 12:52
      I agree with Michael K.’s comment. I often wish I could minimize the app (while listening to an interview), and read through emails, play on the internet, etc. Not being able to minimize while listening definitely limits when I can use the Real Vision app.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      18 July 2019 @ 02:55
      Yes! Play behind feature would be awesome. Phone is essentially in brick mode when I’m listing to RV. Can’t check anything else without stopping the vid.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    17 July 2019 @ 11:23
    excellent interview... thanks Christophe & Roger
    • tr
      tom r.
      17 July 2019 @ 21:45
      Good interview just hard to understand. I agree with others that it would be best to use subtitles as well.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      18 July 2019 @ 00:48
      Read my reply above about clicking on a point in the Transcript tab.