Establishment Politics Fails French Electorate

Published on
May 3rd, 2017
Topic
Politics, Europe
Duration
39 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Currencies

Establishment Politics Fails French Electorate

The Interview ·
Featuring Charles Gave

Published on: May 3rd, 2017 • Duration: 39 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Currencies • Topic: Politics, Europe

Charles Gave has been managing money and researching markets for over 40 years and France’s elder statesman of asset allocation captures the mood ahead of the most crucial Presidential election in a generation. In conversation with Dr. Pippa Malmgren, Charles breaks down national politics to understand why voters have rejected the establishment and the market impact of both outcomes. Filmed on April 27, 2017, in Paris.

Comments

  • GP
    Gordon P.
    7 May 2017 @ 19:48
    God to think I was going to skip this interview, glad I didnt - it was great -thanks RV/Pippa
  • MD
    Mick D.
    7 May 2017 @ 18:07
    Macron has walked home with the prize.
  • B
    Bojo .
    7 May 2017 @ 13:08
    A brilliant interview! Mr. Global has outdone himself once again, killing Fillon and serving the French a factory-made biscuit with no taste or flavor.
  • sr
    sam r.
    6 May 2017 @ 13:37
    Great interview guys! I love that trade of short German autos long French autos in the event of an EU breakdown. Something I'd never of considered!
  • JG
    John G.
    5 May 2017 @ 19:47
    Thank you, Pippa. Excellent questions to a very insightful man. I am a big fan of Pippa and Charles so this interview was a real treat for me.
  • ST
    Syed T.
    4 May 2017 @ 23:45
    Can v click thumbs up like 10 times..???.... I really hope we get to see Charles more frequently...
  • GS
    George S.
    4 May 2017 @ 18:21
    Bang, Mr. Gave giving it straight to the "empty suits". Ripped Macron apart. Fantastic!
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    4 May 2017 @ 15:19
    Finally a man who gives his market opinion
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    4 May 2017 @ 14:10
    Pippa is great
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    4 May 2017 @ 12:57
    Great interview and questions. There were so many awesome quotes in that!
  • SW
    Sebastian W.
    4 May 2017 @ 12:53
    great interview, very interesting point to view about France
  • PN
    Paul N.
    4 May 2017 @ 05:27
    Macron has done well to market himself as a fresh new face, despite being the top econ advisor of one of the most hated outgoing Presidents ever in Hollande. France is ironically voting for a repeat of Hollande's policies.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    4 May 2017 @ 03:52
    Funny seeing Pippa taking in breath after Charles spruiks the commonwealth countries as safe investments because of their rule of law. The US is a global leader in democracy, entrepreneurial capitalism hence productivity, most global bodies including in governance, the global monetary system let alone the most dominant military power in history. A silly, partisan and parochial thing to say. Australia for one is nothing but a hollowed out shell consisting of the mining of dirt and the fermenting of a stupendous housing bubble (like the UK) on the back of corrupt chinese capital flight. Jokes Charles, jokes. Hilarious buddy.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      4 May 2017 @ 03:53
      I'm Australian.
    • DP
      David P.
      4 May 2017 @ 10:22
      I'm French, based in Australia, and i can see the partisanship and ideological point of view of Mister Gave. After all, that is a man that believe extremely strongly in monetarism and has been saying since 2002 that the euro will fail. But very interesting points nevertheless.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    4 May 2017 @ 03:37
    Charles seems too dismissive of the euro and wrong IMO to ascribe it as the main reason EZ growth always peters out. This view seems to me more applicable to the 2010-12 period. Germany has already agreed to ECB QE in Mar15 which has seen the Euro cement itself below at least $1.10. Relative real growth bw EZ and US has clearly improved ever since. With a more aggressive ECB and a prospect of Germany agreeing to federalist type fiscal disbursements to the periphery, the euro may survive longer than Charles expects and even possible thrive.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    4 May 2017 @ 03:21
    One of the best interviews so far (and very timely). His views are very clear but clearly not mainstream which continues to focus on a 20point+ win for Macron. Quite scary.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    3 May 2017 @ 22:25
    Trump and Le Pen are the desperation vote. The last straw. Once they both fail is when the fireworks will begin. They are just another stone in the path of the destruction of politics.
    • JC
      John C.
      6 May 2017 @ 12:12
      sad to say but you might be right. The big issue that Pippa mentioned in her other video is the complete breakdown of the social contract between governments and their citizens. Localized, responsive & responsible government is pretty much dead in the West and has been replaced by all these crony capitalists working in tandem with Big Government to push their agendas through on a worldwide scale. No wonder the average Joe is finally pushing back and saying 'enough'
  • JA
    Jason A.
    3 May 2017 @ 22:14
    *Before the close
  • JA
    Jason A.
    3 May 2017 @ 22:14
    Short the euro Friday encore the close. HARD.
    • MM
      Michael M.
      4 May 2017 @ 22:01
      what do you reckon upside potential is in event of macron win?
    • JC
      John C.
      6 May 2017 @ 12:13
      Well I think the Euro upside might have been priced in already no? Kind of buy the rumor/sell the news assuming a Macron win?
  • BF
    Bruce F.
    3 May 2017 @ 21:53
    brilliant. really causes one to think and watch it again to get the full benefit of it
  • RD
    RP D.
    3 May 2017 @ 21:39
    Dr. P is a great interviewer. Gave is Gold. Bravo Realvision.
  • AG
    Alex G.
    3 May 2017 @ 21:28
    Excellence per usuall from Pippa
  • DS
    David S.
    3 May 2017 @ 21:20
    Excellent interview. I assume that Louis-Vincent Gave and Charles Gave are related, especially since they were in the same firm in France. Both are a joy to listen to. Pipa also did a good job, but was caught several times with leading questions. I will watch again and read the transcript as there is much to learn. DLS
    • MM
      Michael M.
      4 May 2017 @ 22:01
      Louis is Charles' son.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2017 @ 17:10
      Thanks. DLS
  • M
    Mark .
    3 May 2017 @ 19:56
    "Fake prices are bad for growth." When is a politician anywhere going to say that? That’s what we need.
  • MN
    Mark N.
    3 May 2017 @ 19:19
    I'm probably missing something obvious, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this: in case of a euro collapse Charles seems bearish on German assets (cars). On the other hand Stephen Diggle seems bullish on owning German assets (residential real estate). Since the reevaluation of the currency is based on a holistic view of German assets and economy, isn't the long term impact on both types of assets identical?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      4 May 2017 @ 05:23
      The German car factories on 4% margins will be huge loss makers after a 20% DM reval. German RE will also fall but owners will be compensated by an increase in the denominator, the currency. It's the operational leverage which kills the German car makers in a revaluation. It's the fungibility, low depreciation and ongoing demand for German RE which preserves it as a store of value in a reval. One thing I don't understand about Charles' comment is that French car makers will benefit more from a deval of the Euro because their operations are in other countries. No, they would benefit more from a deval if their operations were in France! As would the French economy. Perhaps he is assuming a reval of the French franc Vs the euro (on its demise), not a deval?
    • bf
      bart f.
      4 May 2017 @ 09:01
      A redomination breaks up the balance sheet equilibrium so the impact (positive or negative) comes from the asset vs liability mismatch. Germany’s assets are abroad: foreign currency cash flows and liability at home: factory expenses. They pushed the euro arbitrage to max leverage never thinking it might break up. The only hedge is the externalize the production which the French entities have been doing due to the toxic to produce at home. So the French corporates have a better asset vs liability match. But the real question is on the banking system how are these matched up? German real estate will benefit from the appreciation which will also create a deflationary shock in a country used to 4% unemployment. So short German equity and long German bonds (same as real estate) is the trade.
    • MN
      Mark N.
      4 May 2017 @ 17:25
      Thank you Robert and Bart for taking time out of your day to answer this. Really deepens the understanding of these videos.
  • MA
    Michael A.
    3 May 2017 @ 19:01
    Really fascinating interview, especially the last 15 mins of it. I'm a bit of a layman when it comes to the French elections, this provided a very very god overview
  • dd
    darrell d.
    3 May 2017 @ 18:53
    Invest in more volatility. Need to have deeper dive into that statement. Overall great interview.
  • JC
    John C.
    3 May 2017 @ 18:44
    Very informative. But I think the 'fall of the left' is way overblown and basically most Western nations have swung so far left that the so-called 'right' isn't really all that conservative anymore, economically or even politically. Look at Le Pen who is essentially a socialist economically who just wants rational immigration policies. Or the rise of Bernie Sanders in the US - unfathomable even 10-15 years ago. Trump is certainly not a real economic conservative. Macron is tagged a 'centrist' by the mainstream media which he certainly is not (well maybe in France). Big business and crony capitalism rule the roost to the extent that there is a 'business lobby'. On the social side of things you have RINOs mostly in the US and almost everyone is far left of the spectrum in Europe. Hard-working producers (the ones of us left) are really getting squeezed by this lurch to the left by way of taxes, a drop off in public services, low or no wage growth, high unemployment, lack of good paying white collar jobs, mass immigration etc. etc. I guess France like nowhere else epitomizes this toxic mix of socialism, government overreach, and out of touch bureaucrats which Gave does a great job of giving us all the lay of the land. It's really hard to think that any solution is coming forth anytime soon, Le Pen or not. I guess we'll see. Great interview!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    3 May 2017 @ 18:05
    Also great to see someone like Gave use the phrase 'the great replacement' - as again so many elites are completely asleep to, or oddly sanguine about the imminent demographic reality for most european countries.
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2017 @ 18:45
      indeed...it's almost a form os self-induced 'ethnic cleansing' but with a happy EU face
    • MM
      Michael M.
      4 May 2017 @ 21:22
      That's exactly what it is.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    3 May 2017 @ 18:01
    It is so great and heartening to see people who are by all reasonable definitions 'elite', correctly diagnose these problems, when it would probably be easier for them to go along with the consensus of their peers. Truly admirable. Well done again RV
  • SG
    Sherman G.
    3 May 2017 @ 18:01
    This interview was worth the entire subscription price for Real Vision TV.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    3 May 2017 @ 16:29
    Wow, fantastic! Two wonderfully intelligent people discussing the unknowns coming up in France and giving us outsiders some incredible insights. Loved the interview and looking forward to seeing the results after this Sunday!!!
  • DM
    Daniel M.
    3 May 2017 @ 15:40
    This is fantastic!
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    3 May 2017 @ 14:47
    Any particular plays on a Macron or Le Pen outcome that are worth sharing?
  • bf
    bart f.
    3 May 2017 @ 13:58
    I totally share his views on France which makes me sad since until now I thought I was paranoid. The traditional left and right have bought polling peace in exchange of vesting interests with unemployment being the adjustment variable. The positive is that French companies which have been chased away might benefit when the day of reckoning comes. Regarding Sunday vote we are in the mistrust cycle. What the voters are the most suspicious of drives the election result: in the US it was big government, in the UK it was European parliament sovereignty and in France it is globalization/business. This is why Melenchon did so well and if Le Pen can ride that wave she can still win it (although she has a mountain to climb). If she wins I am not sure it is the end of Euro right away as the French are in majority supporting. She will use the couple of referendum she has to change the institutions (reduce seats, introduce proportionality) and get a majority then it is unknown.
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2017 @ 18:54
      Good points all. I don't want to try to foreshadow Pippa's piece but I think even if Le Pen loses she still eventually wins. Macron is a socialist stop-gap measure at best and his party has zero seats out of 500+ in the parliament I think. Hard to see him succeeding as "Hollande Lite."
    • bf
      bart f.
      4 May 2017 @ 09:55
      The struck of luck of the French establishment is that the discontent tidal wave is coming from both side: extreme left for the mistrust in globalization and extreme right for the mistrust in immigration. So all they need to stay in power is merge the traditional parties into an “extreme center”. The left will flock under EM, the right will decide after they see how high MLP scores. If she does more than 45% they will be a temptation to break in 2, below they will all kiss the ring.
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    3 May 2017 @ 13:50
    Some brilliant statements in here. "If you don't have your monetary sovereignty you don't have budget sovereignty"... "either you recover your sovereignty or you don't, you can't be half pregnant" "This thing is the Soviet Union, we have false prices everywhere." "If you want to live in a communist country come to France." "The Germans have made a colossal mistake, which is that they have all their production in Germany" "Indexation is a form of socialism" "If you want to decrease your risk, increase your volatility"
  • TS
    Thierry S.
    3 May 2017 @ 12:46
    There is no stigmata to tell people 'I vote Macron' because you could say 'I don't like him but we need to stop the far right' So, I expect that there is much more silent (undecided) voter in Le Pen c
  • JM
    James M.
    3 May 2017 @ 12:21
    Excellent!
  • JS
    John S.
    3 May 2017 @ 12:07
    Marvellous
  • GM
    Greg M.
    3 May 2017 @ 11:57
    Ted Kennedy didn't leave the Senate until he died in 2009. Remember the Obamacare rallying cry? Pass it for Ted. Thanks for the healthcare bill and that horrible 1965 immigration law. May you rot in hell.
    • WM
      Will M.
      6 May 2017 @ 13:55
      Yes and lets not forget Chappaquiddick where Ted's political life hung in the balance and his families power got him out of a manslaughter charge.
  • JV
    Jason V.
    3 May 2017 @ 11:25
    Brilliant insight. A fine example of why RV TV is strides ahead of its competition. What a pleasure to hear Mr Gave's knowledge and experience shine through in this extended format. And expertly conducted by Pippa, as always.
    • TL
      T L.
      4 May 2017 @ 12:42
      what sites are the competition?

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