Establishment Politics Fails French Electorate

Featuring Charles Gave

Charles Gave has been managing money and researching markets for over 40 years and France’s elder statesman of asset allocation captures the mood ahead of the most crucial Presidential election in a generation. In conversation with Dr. Pippa Malmgren, Charles breaks down national politics to understand why voters have rejected the establishment and the market impact of both outcomes. Filmed on April 27, 2017, in Paris.

Published on
3 May, 2017
Topic
Politics, Europe
Duration
39 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
15

Comments

  • GP

    Gordon P.

    7 5 2017 19:48

    0       0

    God to think I was going to skip this interview, glad I didnt - it was great -thanks RV/Pippa

  • MD

    Mark D.

    7 5 2017 18:07

    0       0

    Macron has walked home with the prize.

  • B

    Bojo .

    7 5 2017 13:08

    2       0

    A brilliant interview! Mr. Global has outdone himself once again, killing Fillon and serving the French a factory-made biscuit with no taste or flavor.

  • sr

    sam r.

    6 5 2017 13:37

    1       0

    Great interview guys! I love that trade of short German autos long French autos in the event of an EU breakdown. Something I'd never of considered!

  • JG

    John G.

    5 5 2017 19:47

    5       0

    Thank you, Pippa. Excellent questions to a very insightful man. I am a big fan of Pippa and Charles so this interview was a real treat for me.

  • ST

    Syed T.

    4 5 2017 23:45

    4       0

    Can v click thumbs up like 10 times..???.... I really hope we get to see Charles more frequently...

  • GS

    George S.

    4 5 2017 18:21

    3       0

    Bang, Mr. Gave giving it straight to the "empty suits". Ripped Macron apart. Fantastic!

  • VS

    Victor S.

    4 5 2017 15:19

    3       0

    Finally a man who gives his market opinion

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    4 5 2017 14:10

    3       2

    Pippa is great

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    4 5 2017 12:57

    4       0

    Great interview and questions. There were so many awesome quotes in that!

  • SW

    Sebastian W.

    4 5 2017 12:53

    1       0

    great interview, very interesting point to view about France

  • PN

    Paul N.

    4 5 2017 05:27

    2       0

    Macron has done well to market himself as a fresh new face, despite being the top econ advisor of one of the most hated outgoing Presidents ever in Hollande. France is ironically voting for a repeat of Hollande's policies.

  • RM

    Robert M.

    4 5 2017 03:52

    4       2

    Funny seeing Pippa taking in breath after Charles spruiks the commonwealth countries as safe investments because of their rule of law.
    The US is a global leader in democracy, entrepreneurial capitalism hence productivity, most global bodies including in governance, the global monetary system let alone the most dominant military power in history.
    A silly, partisan and parochial thing to say.
    Australia for one is nothing but a hollowed out shell consisting of the mining of dirt and the fermenting of a stupendous housing bubble (like the UK) on the back of corrupt chinese capital flight. Jokes Charles, jokes. Hilarious buddy.

  • RM

    Robert M.

    4 5 2017 03:37

    2       3

    Charles seems too dismissive of the euro and wrong IMO to ascribe it as the main reason EZ growth always peters out. This view seems to me more applicable to the 2010-12 period. Germany has already agreed to ECB QE in Mar15 which has seen the Euro cement itself below at least $1.10.
    Relative real growth bw EZ and US has clearly improved ever since.
    With a more aggressive ECB and a prospect of Germany agreeing to federalist type fiscal disbursements to the periphery, the euro may survive longer than Charles expects and even possible thrive.

  • MC

    Michael C.

    4 5 2017 03:21

    1       0

    One of the best interviews so far (and very timely). His views are very clear but clearly not mainstream which continues to focus on a 20point+ win for Macron. Quite scary.

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    3 5 2017 22:25

    11       0

    Trump and Le Pen are the desperation vote. The last straw. Once they both fail is when the fireworks will begin. They are just another stone in the path of the destruction of politics.

  • JA

    Jason A.

    3 5 2017 22:14

    0       0

    *Before the close

  • JA

    Jason A.

    3 5 2017 22:14

    2       0

    Short the euro Friday encore the close. HARD.

  • BF

    Bruce F.

    3 5 2017 21:53

    2       0

    brilliant. really causes one to think and watch it again to get the full benefit of it

  • RD

    RP D.

    3 5 2017 21:39

    13       0

    Dr. P is a great interviewer. Gave is Gold. Bravo Realvision.

  • AG

    Alex G.

    3 5 2017 21:28

    3       0

    Excellence per usuall from Pippa

  • DS

    David S.

    3 5 2017 21:20

    2       2

    Excellent interview. I assume that Louis-Vincent Gave and Charles Gave are related, especially since they were in the same firm in France. Both are a joy to listen to. Pipa also did a good job, but was caught several times with leading questions. I will watch again and read the transcript as there is much to learn. DLS

  • M

    Mark .

    3 5 2017 19:56

    3       0

    "Fake prices are bad for growth." When is a politician anywhere going to say that? That’s what we need.

  • MN

    Mark N.

    3 5 2017 19:19

    2       0

    I'm probably missing something obvious, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this: in case of a euro collapse Charles seems bearish on German assets (cars). On the other hand Stephen Diggle seems bullish on owning German assets (residential real estate). Since the reevaluation of the currency is based on a holistic view of German assets and economy, isn't the long term impact on both types of assets identical?

  • MA

    Michael A.

    3 5 2017 19:01

    3       0

    Really fascinating interview, especially the last 15 mins of it. I'm a bit of a layman when it comes to the French elections, this provided a very very god overview

  • dd

    darrell d.

    3 5 2017 18:53

    5       0

    Invest in more volatility. Need to have deeper dive into that statement.
    Overall great interview.

  • JC

    John C.

    3 5 2017 18:44

    9       0

    Very informative. But I think the 'fall of the left' is way overblown and basically most Western nations have swung so far left that the so-called 'right' isn't really all that conservative anymore, economically or even politically. Look at Le Pen who is essentially a socialist economically who just wants rational immigration policies. Or the rise of Bernie Sanders in the US - unfathomable even 10-15 years ago. Trump is certainly not a real economic conservative. Macron is tagged a 'centrist' by the mainstream media which he certainly is not (well maybe in France). Big business and crony capitalism rule the roost to the extent that there is a 'business lobby'. On the social side of things you have RINOs mostly in the US and almost everyone is far left of the spectrum in Europe. Hard-working producers (the ones of us left) are really getting squeezed by this lurch to the left by way of taxes, a drop off in public services, low or no wage growth, high unemployment, lack of good paying white collar jobs, mass immigration etc. etc. I guess France like nowhere else epitomizes this toxic mix of socialism, government overreach, and out of touch bureaucrats which Gave does a great job of giving us all the lay of the land. It's really hard to think that any solution is coming forth anytime soon, Le Pen or not. I guess we'll see. Great interview!

  • MM

    Michael M.

    3 5 2017 18:05

    4       0

    Also great to see someone like Gave use the phrase 'the great replacement' - as again so many elites are completely asleep to, or oddly sanguine about the imminent demographic reality for most european countries.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    3 5 2017 18:01

    3       0

    It is so great and heartening to see people who are by all reasonable definitions 'elite', correctly diagnose these problems, when it would probably be easier for them to go along with the consensus of their peers. Truly admirable. Well done again RV

  • SG

    Sherman G.

    3 5 2017 18:01

    7       1

    This interview was worth the entire subscription price for Real Vision TV.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    3 5 2017 16:29

    1       0

    Wow, fantastic! Two wonderfully intelligent people discussing the unknowns coming up in France and giving us outsiders some incredible insights. Loved the interview and looking forward to seeing the results after this Sunday!!!

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    3 5 2017 15:40

    1       0

    This is fantastic!

  • KK

    Kevin K.

    3 5 2017 14:47

    0       0

    Any particular plays on a Macron or Le Pen outcome that are worth sharing?

  • bf

    bart f.

    3 5 2017 13:58

    5       0

    I totally share his views on France which makes me sad since until now I thought I was paranoid. The traditional left and right have bought polling peace in exchange of vesting interests with unemployment being the adjustment variable. The positive is that French companies which have been chased away might benefit when the day of reckoning comes. Regarding Sunday vote we are in the mistrust cycle. What the voters are the most suspicious of drives the election result: in the US it was big government, in the UK it was European parliament sovereignty and in France it is globalization/business. This is why Melenchon did so well and if Le Pen can ride that wave she can still win it (although she has a mountain to climb). If she wins I am not sure it is the end of Euro right away as the French are in majority supporting. She will use the couple of referendum she has to change the institutions (reduce seats, introduce proportionality) and get a majority then it is unknown.

  • AL

    Andrew L.

    3 5 2017 13:50

    16       0

    Some brilliant statements in here.

    "If you don't have your monetary sovereignty you don't have budget sovereignty"... "either you recover your sovereignty or you don't, you can't be half pregnant"

    "This thing is the Soviet Union, we have false prices everywhere."

    "If you want to live in a communist country come to France."

    "The Germans have made a colossal mistake, which is that they have all their production in Germany"

    "Indexation is a form of socialism"

    "If you want to decrease your risk, increase your volatility"

  • TS

    Thierry S.

    3 5 2017 12:46

    2       0

    There is no stigmata to tell people 'I vote Macron' because you could say 'I don't like him but we need to stop the far right'
    So, I expect that there is much more silent (undecided) voter in Le Pen c

  • JM

    James M.

    3 5 2017 12:21

    2       0

    Excellent!

  • JS

    John S.

    3 5 2017 12:07

    3       0

    Marvellous

  • GM

    Greg M.

    3 5 2017 11:57

    14       9

    Ted Kennedy didn't leave the Senate until he died in 2009. Remember the Obamacare rallying cry? Pass it for Ted. Thanks for the healthcare bill and that horrible 1965 immigration law. May you rot in hell.

  • JV

    Jason V.

    3 5 2017 11:25

    13       0

    Brilliant insight. A fine example of why RV TV is strides ahead of its competition. What a pleasure to hear Mr Gave's knowledge and experience shine through in this extended format. And expertly conducted by Pippa, as always.