Fourth Turning Framework Eyes Homeland Generation

Featuring Neil Howe

Historian economist and generational demographer, Neil Howe is one of the most respected commentators in his field and he speaks with Real Vision TV at the perfect moment, as his lauded, Fourth Turning prophecy echoes neatly with the result of the US election. As Neil dissects the campaign and outcome, he looks to the emergence of the post Millennials, ‘Homeland Generation’ to discuss the next First Turning to come.

Published on
29 November, 2016
Topic
Fiscal Policy, US Economy, Politics
Duration
61 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
28

Comments

  • gg

    georgy g.

    27 10 2018 13:21

    0       0

    Is it possible to bring Neil back to have him discuss how China situation and USA attempt to go to “law and order” likely to unfold in the context of 4th turning and trucydidis trap

  • JP

    John P.

    26 5 2017 21:04

    0       0

    Millennial here. I think Grant got it right. The sharing and communal behavior is 100% due to financial environmental factors. I have a good job but I share my apartment and pay only 12% of my income for it.

  • JP

    John P.

    26 5 2017 21:04

    0       0

    Millennial here. I think Grant got it right. The sharing and communal behavior is 100% due to financial environmental factors. I have a good job but I share my apartment and pay only 12% of my income for it.

  • MT

    Marilyn T.

    18 12 2016 16:26

    0       0

    Just a quibble, but Neil and Grant both referred to Trump's concession speech. It was Hillary who made the concession speech. Freudian slip, perhaps?

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    12 12 2016 15:00

    1       0

    I read the book and it opened my eyes! I was out of university 1996, university time was a blast and from 1996 I experienced the bull market. Everything was easy! Then the 4th turning came and everything seemed to be harder. Another 10 Years, o.k. I try to keep my head down and be careful!

  • CM

    CRAIG M.

    5 12 2016 23:58

    6       0

    I first read Howe and Strauss ten years ago. This is the 4th Fourth Turning in American History. The first three were the American Revolution, the Civil War and the Depression/WW2. Howe states that we are now 8 years into this Fourth Turning. This Fourth Turning began with the Financial Crisis of 2008. As each Turning lasts 20-23 years, this Fourth Turning should last another 12-15 years. I agree with Calvin H. that Howe did not answer Grant’s question about the road map for the next 5-8 years. Howe has written that Fourth Turnings normally turn very violent and that some form of warfare is almost guaranteed whether it might be an internal civil war or an external world war. Last year, Grant did a comparison on the parallels between 1914 and 2014 as being the peak of the first globalization and the present globalization. We know that 1914 was the beginning of WW1. Grant needed to press Neil Howe to spend 10 minutes at the end envisioning multiple scenarios as to how this Fourth Turning might evolve.

  • hd

    heil d.

    5 12 2016 21:29

    2       0

    what a great interviewee!
    the only thing lacking in real vision is awarenss of the deep state.

  • MS

    Mike S.

    5 12 2016 18:14

    0       5

    This is by far the worst interview on RT (the guest, not Grant). It's worse than Rosie's bizarre appearance, which is saying something.

    This guy is so far off on his conclusions about young people to be laughable. Doug Coupland, who also has his head up his ass, publicly rejected his Gen X thesis when he realized this generation is no different from this generation is no different than that generation.

    The data is the data. Even a charlatan like Dent figured out the demographic cliff. This is a classic case of forcing conclusions on data that simply does not fit.

    As usual, Grant nails it. It's not that young people don't want a car and a proper home, the smart ones are merely suppressing their wants and temporarily adapting to the manipulation of the pricing mechanism.

  • B

    Bojo .

    5 12 2016 11:30

    2       0

    Grant, I realize it was half-joke, but arrogance is the exact opposite of (healthy) self-esteem, just saying : ) Ego's function is self-destruction. A fantastic interview!

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    3 12 2016 20:37

    2       4

    Are you kidding me... is this guy comparing Trump to Lincoln and Roosevelt? All this interview does is reveal the desperation in the American psyche. Americans are clearly grasping at straws in the laughably misguided hope that there is some omnesient all powerful leader that can save them from the unresolved excesses that led up to 2007.

  • WM

    Will M.

    3 12 2016 16:02

    5       0

    I read the 4th Turning shortly after it came out and thought it incredibly insightful. For anybody who hasn't read it (@Elizabeth B you should reconsider) it is clearly now incredibly prophetic and the turning has only just started. The majority of RV viewers are concerned about the near term financial future, so the concept of the 4th turning and a huge impending crisis should clearly "ring your bell". Its not ALL about financial facts and figures.....the generational social norms are important .....socionomics I think the theory I refer to. Great stuff RV.

  • JS

    Jon S.

    2 12 2016 03:40

    7       0

    I am so glad I pulled the plug on regular TV and subscribe to RVTV. Instead of being 'propagandized' and 'commercialized', I get to think again. Thanks RVTV!

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    1 12 2016 19:35

    4       0

    Super!

  • AS

    Andrew S.

    1 12 2016 16:31

    3       0

    My 2 cents from my East Texas county where Trump got 58,930 votes to Hillary's 22,300....... there were no yard signs for either candidate, really, none. I believe I saw 1 Trump bumper sticker and no Clinton bumper stickers. The majority really was silent until election day.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    1 12 2016 14:36

    10       0

    What did I watch before RealVision

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    1 12 2016 09:17

    4       0

    Thanks Grant! Fantastic questions! Bought the book, but haven't found the time to read it. If he had audio book, I'd get it in heartbeat. Regarding Trump, completely agree that people wanted tof destroy the current dysfunctional government system. We'll see what happens. Like Neil, I'm optimistic.

  • RB

    Rob B.

    30 11 2016 23:57

    5       0

    Great interview - RV has set a high standard for both content and relevance. In this interview makes you think about how much of the scene is set by macro changes vs. self determination. By applying the generational concepts, easy to highly correlate the outcomes we have seen in the last 50 years.

    The one other sobering fact is when the "demand" for order and supply of order is high, feels like each of these eco systems become much more inflexible and rigid and that is how conflicts start - whether trade / finance or all out war, so it feels like the scene is set again for this type of global conflict

  • RM

    Robert M.

    30 11 2016 22:03

    2       7

    I wonder what will be the shape of the galvanising new public mood which will emerge from the eye of the coming storm/ crisis.
    The FIRE sector will continue to suck lots of life out of the economy. Look at Trump, the RE mogul in his gold tower. Look at how the finance sector is loving it all now. Look at the squid he just elevated. So this moves down in the likelihood table the possibility of a reawakening of industrial enterprise which can fix the trade deficit, GDP and incomes.
    Which in turns elevates the chances of war. The negative way to galvanise the US public.

  • ps

    phil s.

    30 11 2016 19:19

    4       0

    Neil Howe is a wonderful resource. His perspective is unique and well worth considering. While the uncertainty of the coming 10 years is potentially frightening, he lays out an optimistic post script. Great interview

  • JG

    James G.

    30 11 2016 15:17

    6       0

    All the money and all the press couldn't get their candidate elected...that is the change to watch...poor performance by the protected class

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    30 11 2016 10:59

    4       2

    Great interview, a lot of philosophical discussions around what each generation is wanting. I think the generation after millennials will be the same as them, as poor standards of education harm their ability to think critically and they have mostly grown up in cosy up bringings.

  • SP

    Spencer P.

    30 11 2016 07:37

    13       2

    A Trump win wasn't shocking to those of us who live outside the liberal strongholds of NYC and Silicon Valley. I traveled through the Midwest and the South all through 2015-2016. I rarely saw Hillary signs. Trump signs were plastered everywhere. I live inside a state with a large African-American population. I talked with my black colleagues and they were obviously not excited to rush to vote for Hillary in the way they supported Obama. White suburban females were clearly more concerned about national security and economic uncertainty. Those issues helped Trump overcome some of his rhetoric which was taken out of context and blown way out of proportion by the biased dinosaur mainstream media.

  • SR

    Sean R.

    30 11 2016 06:30

    14       0

    Great conversation. Just a side question: how the hell is Neil Howe 65 years old? He looks way younger than that. I'll have what he's having!

  • GW

    Grant W.

    30 11 2016 05:17

    4       0

    @Jason M - that may explain it!
    @Zachary B. - it was just an observation
    @Calvin H - Frustration? On the contrary!
    @Charles D - I did thoroughly enjoy talking with Neil!!

  • PN

    Philip N.

    30 11 2016 05:17

    1       0

    If America is divisible then presumably the states would also be divisible. Any county/city/who knows what in a "blue" state that wished to remain in America presumably would be able to. The Blue Nations could easily end up being large urban centers that are completely dependent on a foreign nation for everything they need to survive.

  • JM

    Jason M.

    30 11 2016 04:52

    5       2

    @Grant I put a Trump/Pence sign out. Stolen within 2 days.

  • ZB

    Zachary B.

    30 11 2016 04:46

    5       0

    "lack of Trump/Pence yard signs".... what a ridiculous statement. They were everywhere in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Penn.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    30 11 2016 03:52

    4       2

    Yeah RVTV! I get my fix of 4th Turning! Just in time. Neil, great job deflecting Grant's obvious frustration that Trump won and explaining how he won. Moore and Thiel put me over the hump to vote Trump. You stopped short saying Trump could be the Grey Champion, and I don't disagree. Are the millennials going to be the Heroes?. You did not answer Grant's question about what happens in the next 5-8 yrs!? We are in Crisis phase, so where is the 'match' that ignites the fuse? I don't see it yet. Got love em! Do you? Folks this is a MUST read - if you want to say you know macro.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    30 11 2016 02:49

    2       0

    Good stuff, like his explanation of the changes from a millennial perspective. Interesting take on seeing a potential equity devaluation.

  • J

    John .

    30 11 2016 02:30

    1       0

    Great interview. Puts inter-generational relationships into great perspective. Thank you

  • MG

    Max G.

    30 11 2016 02:05

    9       4

    The democratic leadership screwed up by blocking Bernie. He was the outsider to take-on phoney outsider Trump. That's my opinion as a 29 year old Millennial.

  • MG

    Max G.

    30 11 2016 02:02

    5       2

    All the discussion about the election outcome misses the forest for the trees: this election was simply a referendum on the status quo, just like Brexit. An outsider vs an insider. That is that. The d

  • VB

    Vincent B.

    30 11 2016 01:40

    2       0

    The most recent generation is being called the digital generation NOT homeland
    " digitals "

  • MW

    Matthew W.

    30 11 2016 01:15

    3       0

    Grant - one anecdote for you on Trump signs. I took a road trip in September from NYC to Pittsburgh. It seemed like nearly every house in every town had a Trump sign in the front yard west of Harrisbu

  • CD

    Charles D.

    30 11 2016 00:59

    5       0

    Wonderful to see Grant enjoying this conversation as much as I did...superb.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    29 11 2016 23:41

    1       0

    Loved his book and very much look forward to the update. Great timely interview once again by RV TV.

  • SW

    Steven W.

    29 11 2016 22:47

    34       4

    Firing my 2nd millennial employee this week. I have a guy right now who complains nearly twice a day about being cold in the office (75 deg), brings his blanket to work and wraps up in his blanket like at his desk and streams cartoons during his lunch break. Whines about having to do anything that might get close to interfering with his social life, his peers have to cover for him after hours so he can 'hang out'. It seems like job interviews between a 35yo and a 25yo are completely different people. The last kid I fired had his mom in the office a couple of times a month checking up on him. I saw his mom more last year than I saw my own.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    29 11 2016 22:00

    1       1

    cannot wait to read the book. really interesting.

  • RM

    Russell M.

    29 11 2016 21:32

    4       0

    Worthy of inviting back a few years hence for updated view.

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    29 11 2016 21:03

    4       15

    Will not be buying any of his books.

  • EK

    Emil K.

    29 11 2016 20:59

    17       1

    I don't want to be melodramatic about this but... The Fourth Turning might change the way you see the world. Cannot really pay a higher compliment or recommend it more to anyone who has not read it. Maybe, just maybe this book will change how you see the past, present and future. (Ok, it got a little melodramatic but who would pass up reading a book that offers that possibility?)

  • RM

    Richard M.

    29 11 2016 20:33

    8       1

    Fantastic! I really love the "demographics" topic, and Neil Howe is one of the best as far as describing what it is and the possible consequences of it! The Fourth Turning book is just awesome - everyone should read this book (even though it was written in 1997 it was incredibly prescient and spot on)! Can't wait to read his upcoming books! Thanks RVTV.

  • SB

    Sam B.

    29 11 2016 19:29

    2       1

    Time is a flat circle

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    29 11 2016 18:29

    8       2

    Fantastic!!!

  • FL

    Frank L.

    29 11 2016 17:48

    9       1

    A must to watch-very insightful!