Interview with Lacy Hunt

Featuring Lacy Hunt

In this long-awaited interview, Lacy Hunt lays out the basis of his deflationary thesis, explains how a debt unwind could be managed and outlines why he thinks the US will prove to be the most resilient market.

Published on
6 July, 2016
Topic
Credit Market, Monetary policy
Duration
45 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
18

Comments

  • IH

    Iain H.

    27 8 2018 05:30

    1       0

    Time to have him back, actually its well overdue!

  • KL

    Kathlyn L.

    28 2 2018 02:43

    3       0

    LACY IS A BOSS

  • JC

    Juan C.

    18 8 2017 20:55

    1       0

    Great interview. I keep coming back to it for reference.

  • JV

    Jason V.

    29 6 2017 11:53

    2       0

    This is a hidden gem of an interview. Dr Hunt is, I believe, head and shoulders above his peers in diagnosing and prescribing for the global economy -- his depth of understanding and thought, and the clarity of expression is truly superb. And Grant conducted this discussion with immense insight and skill. This is bordering on a masterpiece of the financial interview genre. Hats off to all involved.

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    21 3 2017 11:06

    0       0

    Another great interview. Good to hear some real hard facts instead of someone repeating information in the main stream.

  • ml

    michael l.

    27 8 2016 14:08

    2       0

    What a great interview. We need thinkers like this in high positions in the Treasury and Fed...because right now we have a vacuum of leadership and critical thinking in both organizations.

  • JB

    Jenny B.

    3 8 2016 21:09

    1       0

    Brilliant, common sense!

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    25 7 2016 15:31

    0       1

    Great interview except... for the blatant US centric hypocrisy. How is that Draghi is "evil" but the American central bankers who started the whole thing and have been leading the world down this path get a pass? Does he actually believe that Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellin are good people who just don't know any better?

  • DV

    Dan V.

    14 7 2016 04:09

    1       0

    Buy USD 10yr treasuries. Pretty simple conclusion. Great presentation!

  • jw

    jackson w.

    13 7 2016 22:20

    1       0

    hell his fund is KILLING IT this year. +19.73% (a share). damnnnn

  • HB

    Heini B.

    13 7 2016 06:29

    0       0

    Thanks for exploring the practicalities of a debt jubilee. Not as easy as it sounds.

  • IF

    Ian F.

    12 7 2016 17:47

    1       1

    Ruined the beautiful explanation on how to resolve the over-indebtedness issue with a 'when will the Fed raise interest rates question'..... what a damn shame. Should have pressed him there.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    12 7 2016 16:43

    0       0

    Great interview - I've put quite a few in my watch again box but this is one that I am definitely going to need to watch again.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    10 7 2016 20:05

    1       0

    Sobering commentary. If listeners are interested in the how much the government is doctoring inflation numbers. go to the website shadowgovermentstatistics. This is the website Volcker recommends. It the way inflation was calculated in the 80's and shows inflation running at 9%. Haven't heard Thomas Hobbs invoked for a while...every should read. Lookup sudden glory

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    10 7 2016 18:40

    10       0

    Fabulous interview. I thought this was genuinely new content for RealVision. I admire his humbleness despite being so clever and informed. Great interviewing by Grant.

  • B

    Bojo .

    9 7 2016 19:40

    6       1

    Excellent analysis. And yes, economically speaking, there might be a way out. But as Bill Bonner says, there are too many people invested in the system. So we will probably go all the way. Trillions have already been sucked out of the system, and there is no Volcker around to say to people with sense of entitlement and selfie-sticks, that they have to take pain. He would be hanged by his testicles from the nearest bridge.

  • hw

    howard w.

    9 7 2016 19:39

    1       0

    Great interview, but I'm confused. Rationing was nice but those people in the seventies were forced to cut their consumption? Rationing isn't forcing but market forces are?

  • SS

    Stewart S.

    9 7 2016 19:26

    1       0

    excellent

  • WM

    Will M.

    9 7 2016 18:27

    0       0

    Just great information and views from a renowned and thoughtful economics practitioner. Great stuff RVT. Edging me towards the 10y as part of my portfolio.

  • MN

    MIMI N.

    9 7 2016 17:54

    2       0

    VeryY Good presentation. Gary Shilling has consistently been calling for lower interests rate for the last 40 years also .

  • sa

    santosh a.

    9 7 2016 16:37

    4       0

    Lacy Hunt is such a sober thinker. His bringing up Kindleberger is very instructive. Another economist in my mind is Rudy Dornbusch. It seemed to me that even he acknowledges that the central banks are trapped. They will continue to get even more extreme as they can't countenance ever admitting error. Japan is at the cutting edge. They will get to monetization of fiscal spending where liabilities rise more than assets or technically balanced using 200 year 1 basis bonds. The question is at what point confidence evaporates and the currency system is destroyed?

  • RM

    Robert M.

    9 7 2016 14:02

    1       0

    I wonder if Dr. Hunt has read the Fourth Turning.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    9 7 2016 02:40

    2       0

    I agreed with you the first time! :)

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    9 7 2016 02:01

    4       0

    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable.

    Absolutely brilliant Man.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    9 7 2016 02:01

    2       0

    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable.

    Absolutely brilliant Man.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    9 7 2016 02:00

    2       0

    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable.

    Absolutely brilliant Man.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    9 7 2016 02:00

    4       0

    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable.

    Absolutely brilliant Man.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    9 7 2016 01:38

    3       0

    Great , if not sobering interview. Sorry you could not get his thoughts on how gold will play out and he never got a chance to walk thru his most likely scenario of how this will play out. Bring him Back Please!

  • KK

    Klaus K.

    9 7 2016 01:10

    2       1

    One can take issue with his assertion that the real interest rate is 2%. The current yield on the 10 year is 1.4% and the CPI also has run at that clip all 2016, for a real interest rate of a big fat 0.0%.

  • NT

    Norman T.

    8 7 2016 20:01

    1       0

    Hey Grant!,you scrub up well (as we say down under).

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    8 7 2016 17:59

    8       0

    Absolutely top drawer! Lacy is in my book the undisputed King of Bonds. I have followed his and Hoisington Investment Management's quarterly economic updates for several years and never been disappointed. As Grant said, Lacy has been calling Treasuries correctly and the deflationary forces driving them for several years. Brilliant interview!

  • DS

    David S.

    8 7 2016 13:13

    0       0

    Excess debt levels leading to higher assets prices due to over trading is very helpful to me in explaining the current high stock P/Es in stocks. In addition, the combination of rapidly increasing sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, hedge funds, etc. leads to a radical increase in the amount of funds that need to be invested. II would like to know if any work has been done on over trading the market due to rapid increase in funds that are required to be invested.

  • TT

    Tim T.

    8 7 2016 11:37

    9       0

    This was a brilliant presentation. I have one "elephant in the room" issue with the entire presentation....inflation. There no way true inflation is even close to the low levels the government is pumping out. For example, official government data shows healthcare inflation is running at 2-3.2% annualized over the past 3 years.

  • DL

    Darryn L.

    8 7 2016 05:34

    13       1

    I've just started reading a book called "the escape from balance sheet recession and the QE trap" by Richard Koo. I think he would make an interesting interview subject and provide a different perspective to Lacy's Austerity point. I really enjoyed the interview and Lacy's insights though.

  • DV

    Dillon V.

    8 7 2016 04:23

    3       0

    Brilliant!

  • AB

    Amiri B.

    8 7 2016 03:02

    1       0

    I wanna know how you easily correct a regressive spending tax. Means-test at the cashier?

  • J

    John .

    8 7 2016 02:14

    20       0

    Lacy should be the next Treasury Secretary of the United States; in an economics competition with any of the last 5 Treasury Secretaries, I would bet on Lacy Hunt. And bet big on him. Awesome

  • SR

    Steve R.

    8 7 2016 00:24

    8       0

    That was just simply brilliant! So clearly articulated and easy to understand. Just fantastic!

  • JS

    John S.

    7 7 2016 22:34

    5       0

    Superb discussion

  • DS

    David S.

    7 7 2016 22:12

    1       0

    Excellent. When looking at two central banks and their currencies, it is more interesting to look at the percentage point difference. If for the same term the US is at 1% and Switzerland is at -1.5% the delta is 2.5 percentage points. If Switzerland goes to -2.0% and the US stays at 1%, the delta is now 3 percentage points.

  • LP

    Lynn P.

    7 7 2016 19:08

    2       0

    What is the central bank(s) first buy all the sovereign debt of the banks and insurers? Isn't that pretty much what the BoJ is doing? How would that outcome differ from a Debt jubilee, which (as per Lacy) would render the banks and insurers insolvent? How would Lacy walk us through that option?

  • PN

    Paul N.

    7 7 2016 17:41

    6       0

    Brilliant! Great to her Lacy expound on his views in lieu of just reading his must read quarterly letters.

  • TF

    Tim F.

    7 7 2016 16:46

    3       0

    Excellent!

  • DH

    Domingo H.

    7 7 2016 15:05

    26       0

    Exceptional interview. Well done.