Interview with Lacy Hunt

Published on
July 6th, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Credit Market
Duration
45 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit

Interview with Lacy Hunt

The Interview ·
Featuring Lacy Hunt

Published on: July 6th, 2016 • Duration: 45 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Monetary policy, Credit Market

In this long-awaited interview, Lacy Hunt lays out the basis of his deflationary thesis, explains how a debt unwind could be managed and outlines why he thinks the US will prove to be the most resilient market.

Comments

  • IH
    Iain H.
    27 August 2018 @ 05:30
    Time to have him back, actually its well overdue!
  • KL
    Kathlyn L.
    28 February 2018 @ 02:43
    LACY IS A BOSS
    • TE
      Tito E.
      18 July 2018 @ 20:52
      Agree! Complete and utter don.
  • JC
    Juan C.
    18 August 2017 @ 20:55
    Great interview. I keep coming back to it for reference.
  • JV
    Jason V.
    29 June 2017 @ 11:53
    This is a hidden gem of an interview. Dr Hunt is, I believe, head and shoulders above his peers in diagnosing and prescribing for the global economy -- his depth of understanding and thought, and the clarity of expression is truly superb. And Grant conducted this discussion with immense insight and skill. This is bordering on a masterpiece of the financial interview genre. Hats off to all involved.
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    21 March 2017 @ 11:06
    Another great interview. Good to hear some real hard facts instead of someone repeating information in the main stream.
  • ml
    michael l.
    27 August 2016 @ 14:08
    What a great interview. We need thinkers like this in high positions in the Treasury and Fed...because right now we have a vacuum of leadership and critical thinking in both organizations.
  • JB
    Jenny B.
    3 August 2016 @ 21:09
    Brilliant, common sense!
  • GG
    Gerald G.
    25 July 2016 @ 15:31
    Great interview except... for the blatant US centric hypocrisy. How is that Draghi is "evil" but the American central bankers who started the whole thing and have been leading the world down this path get a pass? Does he actually believe that Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellin are good people who just don't know any better?
  • DV
    Dan V.
    14 July 2016 @ 04:09
    Buy USD 10yr treasuries. Pretty simple conclusion. Great presentation!
  • jw
    jackson w.
    13 July 2016 @ 22:20
    hell his fund is KILLING IT this year. +19.73% (a share). damnnnn
  • HB
    Heini B.
    13 July 2016 @ 06:29
    Thanks for exploring the practicalities of a debt jubilee. Not as easy as it sounds.
  • IF
    Ian F.
    12 July 2016 @ 17:47
    Ruined the beautiful explanation on how to resolve the over-indebtedness issue with a 'when will the Fed raise interest rates question'..... what a damn shame. Should have pressed him there.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    12 July 2016 @ 16:43
    Great interview - I've put quite a few in my watch again box but this is one that I am definitely going to need to watch again.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    10 July 2016 @ 20:05
    Sobering commentary. If listeners are interested in the how much the government is doctoring inflation numbers. go to the website shadowgovermentstatistics. This is the website Volcker recommends. It the way inflation was calculated in the 80's and shows inflation running at 9%. Haven't heard Thomas Hobbs invoked for a while...every should read. Lookup sudden glory
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    10 July 2016 @ 18:40
    Fabulous interview. I thought this was genuinely new content for RealVision. I admire his humbleness despite being so clever and informed. Great interviewing by Grant.
  • B
    Bojo .
    9 July 2016 @ 19:40
    Excellent analysis. And yes, economically speaking, there might be a way out. But as Bill Bonner says, there are too many people invested in the system. So we will probably go all the way. Trillions have already been sucked out of the system, and there is no Volcker around to say to people with sense of entitlement and selfie-sticks, that they have to take pain. He would be hanged by his testicles from the nearest bridge.
  • hw
    howard w.
    9 July 2016 @ 19:39
    Great interview, but I'm confused. Rationing was nice but those people in the seventies were forced to cut their consumption? Rationing isn't forcing but market forces are?
  • SS
    Stewart S.
    9 July 2016 @ 19:26
    excellent
  • WM
    Will M.
    9 July 2016 @ 18:27
    Just great information and views from a renowned and thoughtful economics practitioner. Great stuff RVT. Edging me towards the 10y as part of my portfolio.
  • MN
    MIMI N.
    9 July 2016 @ 17:54
    VeryY Good presentation. Gary Shilling has consistently been calling for lower interests rate for the last 40 years also .
  • sa
    santosh a.
    9 July 2016 @ 16:37
    Lacy Hunt is such a sober thinker. His bringing up Kindleberger is very instructive. Another economist in my mind is Rudy Dornbusch. It seemed to me that even he acknowledges that the central banks are trapped. They will continue to get even more extreme as they can't countenance ever admitting error. Japan is at the cutting edge. They will get to monetization of fiscal spending where liabilities rise more than assets or technically balanced using 200 year 1 basis bonds. The question is at what point confidence evaporates and the currency system is destroyed?
  • RM
    Robert M.
    9 July 2016 @ 14:02
    I wonder if Dr. Hunt has read the Fourth Turning.
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    9 July 2016 @ 02:40
    I agreed with you the first time! :)
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    9 July 2016 @ 02:01
    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable. Absolutely brilliant Man.
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    9 July 2016 @ 02:01
    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable. Absolutely brilliant Man.
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    9 July 2016 @ 02:00
    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable. Absolutely brilliant Man.
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    9 July 2016 @ 02:00
    Dr. Hunt is the BEST. The only economist in USA predicted the deflation & low interest rate before it was fashionable. Absolutely brilliant Man.
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    9 July 2016 @ 01:38
    Great , if not sobering interview. Sorry you could not get his thoughts on how gold will play out and he never got a chance to walk thru his most likely scenario of how this will play out. Bring him Back Please!
  • KK
    Klaus K.
    9 July 2016 @ 01:10
    One can take issue with his assertion that the real interest rate is 2%. The current yield on the 10 year is 1.4% and the CPI also has run at that clip all 2016, for a real interest rate of a big fat 0.0%.
  • NT
    Norman T.
    8 July 2016 @ 20:01
    Hey Grant!,you scrub up well (as we say down under).
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    8 July 2016 @ 17:59
    Absolutely top drawer! Lacy is in my book the undisputed King of Bonds. I have followed his and Hoisington Investment Management's quarterly economic updates for several years and never been disappointed. As Grant said, Lacy has been calling Treasuries correctly and the deflationary forces driving them for several years. Brilliant interview!
  • DS
    David S.
    8 July 2016 @ 13:13
    Excess debt levels leading to higher assets prices due to over trading is very helpful to me in explaining the current high stock P/Es in stocks. In addition, the combination of rapidly increasing sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, hedge funds, etc. leads to a radical increase in the amount of funds that need to be invested. II would like to know if any work has been done on over trading the market due to rapid increase in funds that are required to be invested.
  • TT
    Tim T.
    8 July 2016 @ 11:37
    This was a brilliant presentation. I have one "elephant in the room" issue with the entire presentation....inflation. There no way true inflation is even close to the low levels the government is pumping out. For example, official government data shows healthcare inflation is running at 2-3.2% annualized over the past 3 years.
  • DL
    Darryn L.
    8 July 2016 @ 05:34
    I've just started reading a book called "the escape from balance sheet recession and the QE trap" by Richard Koo. I think he would make an interesting interview subject and provide a different perspective to Lacy's Austerity point. I really enjoyed the interview and Lacy's insights though.
  • DV
    Dillon V.
    8 July 2016 @ 04:23
    Brilliant!
  • AB
    Amiri B.
    8 July 2016 @ 03:02
    I wanna know how you easily correct a regressive spending tax. Means-test at the cashier?
  • J
    John .
    8 July 2016 @ 02:14
    Lacy should be the next Treasury Secretary of the United States; in an economics competition with any of the last 5 Treasury Secretaries, I would bet on Lacy Hunt. And bet big on him. Awesome
  • SR
    Steve R.
    8 July 2016 @ 00:24
    That was just simply brilliant! So clearly articulated and easy to understand. Just fantastic!
  • JS
    John S.
    7 July 2016 @ 22:34
    Superb discussion
  • DS
    David S.
    7 July 2016 @ 22:12
    Excellent. When looking at two central banks and their currencies, it is more interesting to look at the percentage point difference. If for the same term the US is at 1% and Switzerland is at -1.5% the delta is 2.5 percentage points. If Switzerland goes to -2.0% and the US stays at 1%, the delta is now 3 percentage points.
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    7 July 2016 @ 19:08
    What is the central bank(s) first buy all the sovereign debt of the banks and insurers? Isn't that pretty much what the BoJ is doing? How would that outcome differ from a Debt jubilee, which (as per Lacy) would render the banks and insurers insolvent? How would Lacy walk us through that option?
  • PN
    Paul N.
    7 July 2016 @ 17:41
    Brilliant! Great to her Lacy expound on his views in lieu of just reading his must read quarterly letters.
  • TF
    Tim F.
    7 July 2016 @ 16:46
    Excellent!
  • DH
    Domingo H.
    7 July 2016 @ 15:05
    Exceptional interview. Well done.