Investing Without a Rear View Mirror

Featuring Bill Ehrman

Bill Ehrman is a veteran stock picker with decades of success. He’s a legend in the industry, having worked with luminaries like Byron Wien and George Soros and he speaks with Mike Green about the importance of a long time horizon with a strong understanding of your sectors. Packed with insight from his career, Bill explains why he’s always focused forward, without looking back on quarterly performance. Filmed on August 29, 2017, in New York.

Published on
4 September, 2017
Topic
Investment Framework, Micro, Portfolio Management
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
106

Comments

  • DS

    David S.

    8 3 2018 21:34

    0       0

    Excellent interview. There are many ways to make/lose money in the market. Surely a portfolio can use a combination of strategies - you need to keep them separate so you can really see performance. I loved the trading around as Mr. Ehrman explained it well. Thanks. DLS

  • TK

    Tanay K.

    2 10 2017 16:24

    1       0

    Even this comments section is full of people saying he's wrong about the bull market continuing.

    I might have to change my view to Mr Ehrman's.

  • TS

    Timothy S.

    20 9 2017 16:15

    0       0

    I always have something to take from a RV video. Even when it isn't the best.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    12 9 2017 15:45

    1       0

    A man with a great deal of wisdom. All good advice -but when this bull becomes hamburger will he still outperform ? I'd like to hear that interview.

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    12 9 2017 09:57

    0       0

    One of the best vids this year. Enjoying the content of investment structure and principles more than investment ideas/themes

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    10 9 2017 10:44

    0       0

    Thanks for the great insights! It was a pleasure to listen to this conversation and I already look forward to a follow up.

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    8 9 2017 15:28

    0       0

    Thanks Michael for this Fantastic Interview. Always good to be have the view of one of the greats.

  • HK

    H K.

    7 9 2017 01:09

    4       0

    Michael Green is very thoughtful and asks great questions. Mr. Ehrman thank you sharing some of your wisdom.

  • JS

    James S.

    6 9 2017 22:40

    1       0

    Fantastic interview!

  • JL

    Jacob L.

    6 9 2017 14:47

    10       0

    Awesome to have a bull on Realvision. I think he is wrong due to a number of factors (Central Bank flows reversing, bloated EPS all around due to financial engineering, unsustainable debt situation combined with unfavourable demographics, etc) but I want more bulls on here to argue against this view.

  • ES

    Edward S.

    6 9 2017 13:20

    4       0

    Michael Green is the best.. Don't really agree with this guy's take on the markets. He seems to have 'got in' at a time (2013) that would convince anyone they were prophetic.

  • RM

    Russell M.

    6 9 2017 12:40

    5       0

    Best comment was "invest in what you understand".

    • BT

      Bryan T.

      6 9 2017 21:03

      4       0

      Yes...but with some regularity expand what you understand. Cryptocurrencies come to mind. I dIdn't understand them...I could have ignored them, I didn't and they've been the best performing asset in history to date. He manages others money which of course is different than managing ones own.

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    6 9 2017 00:18

    4       0

    I had a similar initial reaction to this interview, especially regarding markets going up from here, not down. Listening closer though, Mr Ehman’s success has been based on the industrial and commodity companies – and in the “Currency Race to the Bottom” world we appear to live in, those companies and especially those commodities should fare well. He also did reference have both long and short positions. It took something on my part to extract this, but this interview actually validated my new starting long positions in agricultural commodities and looking at industrial metals being added to my precious metal holdings. Unlike Mr. Ehman though, I’m short the Russell 2000, the S&P, Tesla and Amazon.

  • WS

    William S.

    5 9 2017 21:50

    8       4

    I did not find this to be a very compelling interview, notwithstanding the fact that Mike Green is typically a fabulous interviewer.

    Mr. Ehrman's investing philosophy is sound, as far as it goes. However, unless he's simply very lucky in the next few years, I suspect it's going to be a period of exceptional pain for him and his clients. Why? Because, from what I could discern, Mr. Ehrman appears to be complacently oblivious to what I consider the indisputable fact that we are now facing down a multi-generational inflection point in developed world markets -- particularly in the US.

    The fundamental factor / paramount consideration, from my perspective, is CURRENCIES, above all the USD as the world reserve currency. Not only am I convinced the US has fatally wounded its currency through excessive dilution and debt, but more importantly, I am convinced that there is now a concerted, collaborative, and carefully calculated agenda in motion (on the part of the central banks and fiscal authorities of several of the most influential economies) to identify and systematically expand the use of alternative settlement instruments; effectively rejecting the USD as the currency de rigueur in international trade.

    If indeed the USD is in the process of relinquishing (or having exogenously rejected) its status as *THE* dominant world reserve currency, then I submit that is, far and away, the most fundamentally important investment factor going forward -- especially when you consider that, looking back in monetary history, transitions to a new monetary regime are always accompanied by geopolitical strife and, almost always, by war.

    The bottom line is that unless I perceive that a commentator is cognizant of the imminent (relatively speaking) monetary reset the world is facing, I'm generally dubious of anything else s/he has to say.

  • DG

    Daniel G.

    5 9 2017 19:45

    4       1

    So thick on conjecture, so thin on substance. He didn't even give the central banks their due in this. Earnings are the same as in 2012 but the S&P is 80% higher, and he wants to add more? I just don't get it.

  • rr

    rlw r.

    5 9 2017 16:13

    4       0

    Another fine interview Mike. Yup... more bulls. Let's hear from even more 'other side of the trade' guys. That's the added value.

  • MK

    Markus K.

    5 9 2017 10:48

    1       3

    Quick question to Realvision - why are you guys double-counting Likes and Dislikes, when clicking those buttons?

    • WS

      William S.

      5 9 2017 20:47

      0       0

      Seems to me that the like/dislike counters are working correctly. At least in my browser. If I click on the dislike, it increments the counter; if I click dislike again, it does nothing; if I then click like, it decrements the dislike count and increments the like count, and vice versa if I do the opposite.

  • MG

    Matteo G.

    5 9 2017 06:45

    10       0

    I am curious to know the opinion of other listeners. I totally disagree on his thesis that there is a lot of pessimism in the market. what? is there pessimism when retail investors are shorting VIX like hell? is there pessimism when all banks say buy the dip after a -2% correction from all time highs ? maybe it is like in 1999 and there is a lot of upside but for sure optimism is everywhere

    • PM

      Paul M.

      5 9 2017 09:40

      5       0

      I agree. Mike Green suggests that mutual funds outflows are simply a function of baby-boomers retiring and major inflows into ETFs. Mr. Ehrman simply ignores this and comes up with a newspaper example supposedly having a lot of calls for a correction. Some insightful philosophical concepts for sure but his current uber-bullish thesis is questionable.

    • CM

      Chris M.

      6 9 2017 02:27

      1       0

      If you go to his fund's website, he has a blog posted talking about the Barron's article that the market is ending. This theme is repeated in the interview. I agree the man on the street is very optimistic. Look at the run in crypto. Relating to the street's negativity, I wonder how much a third bubble in 17 years plays into the press' coverage of the market and the predictions of a bear market? People are much more on their toes than typical bull markets. Also the bear/bull debate is often used by websites like MarketWatch to drive clicks. So not sure that the press' coverage of the market is as accurate an indicator as year's past. With that said, do agree on his philosophy on how to invest, just not the timing aspect.

  • RI

    R I.

    5 9 2017 04:20

    24       0

    Looking forward to the next time Michael Green is answering questions instead of asking them. His wealth of knowledge should be shared more often.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    5 9 2017 04:03

    4       0

    I truly respect the time this man has put into markets. I don't know that I agree with the thesis that we're at a market bottom, though. Given the comment that the Baby Boomers are starting to cash out was danced around, I hope no one is buying this market right now...I would hope people take Charlie Munger's words to heart. "Buy great companies at really good prices than sit on your ass!" would be the order of the day. But, Mr. Erhman concedes that sticking to one's knitting is the best course of action exonerates him from further abuse shows the wisdom of his years! Congratulations, RVTV. Another interview well done!

  • PS

    Paul S.

    5 9 2017 03:19

    4       2

    Delusional on trade

  • CM

    Chris M.

    5 9 2017 03:11

    3       0

    Greatest bull market in his lifetime since 2009? 1990s says hello.

  • JE

    J E.

    5 9 2017 02:53

    3       17

    This guy is blind, crazy trump supporter

  • JW

    Jacqueline W.

    5 9 2017 02:31

    4       0

    Fantastic and refreshing. So simple but not easy to put into action. Singles and doubles are far more realistic but most can't help themselves and want to hit the homer and end up striking out.
    Look

  • JL

    JT L.

    5 9 2017 02:21

    3       0

    Excellent interview. Down to earth practical knowledge that an ordinary investor can relate to and understand

  • GP

    Gordon P.

    4 9 2017 22:31

    1       1

    Great, Thank You RV - wish I could invest with him but I'm too small

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    4 9 2017 22:08

    17       0

    Interesting interview, and a different perspective from those we often hear on RV - enjoyable and upbeat interview.

    That said, respectfully disagree with many of the positions taken, and noticed that Bill did not touch on many of the deeper issues that are fundamental to the markets longer term (debt, demographics, etc.). Also, the issue of central banks as a chief driver of the current economic cycle, was not mentioned in the discussion - felt this was scraping the surface somewhat, and it would have been good to go a bit deeper.

  • CG

    Chase G.

    4 9 2017 21:53

    5       0

    not sure mutal fund withdraws signal a bottom now, when those flow go into etfs, bitcoin, and short vol

  • am

    amit m.

    4 9 2017 19:41

    5       4

    One of the best episodes ive seen in while. Thoughtful tactical and honest. More interviews like this pls

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    4 9 2017 19:12

    6       4

    A bull, a bull, a real bull on real vision, LOL, love it!

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    4 9 2017 18:27

    10       1

    A very good interview but not sure I agree with his opinions but hey - that's what makes a market.

  • SF

    Sam F.

    4 9 2017 17:45

    4       3

    one of the best so far in 2017.

  • us

    ujjwal s.

    4 9 2017 12:45

    11       14

    I would consider this interview alone as worth subscribing to VT. Like the opinion and convincing argument that banks books are solid and companies are doing very good financially and using most from cheap money. Rather than being scared with market timer, use your judgement and invest with eyes and ear open.

  • GM

    Gavin M.

    4 9 2017 11:44

    7       3

    Fantastic interview. Interesting thesis on Trump and trade war being beneficial to US. Also focusing on mistakes and what could go wrong in portfolio, not the winners.

    • JE

      J E.

      5 9 2017 03:04

      6       4

      This guy is over simplifying the situation. Does he really think corporations are moving back because of Trump? Its the technology that has lower the cost of production, thats the main reason.

      A trade war? You think the middle income folks of the rust belt can afford to buy goods at 10-20% more? If they hate their lives now, they will hate it even more when that takes place.

      Besides a trade war will lead to a shooting war.

      We're almost getting there now before any real trade war has occur with a militaristic president thats set for confrontation.

      This guy doesn't think through all the ramifications of the tail end of theses mega cycles. How will that be a benefit?

    • IF

      Ian F.

      22 9 2017 20:49

      1       0

      JE you are thinking too myopically. Trade deficit = importing labor. Wages soar in a trade war.