Momentum Building Behind Euro

Featuring Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi, CEO of Intermarket Strategy, is a highly regarded currency strategist and he expertly blends the technical and fundamental rationales to make the case for renewed impetus for the euro against the dollar. Outlining the policy lag between the Fed and the ECB and the protectionist rhetoric coming out of the US, Ashraf also has an interesting counterpoint on the relative moves of the dollar and gold. Filmed on July 18, 2017, in London.

Published on
1 August, 2017
Gold, Macro, Europe
25 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit


  • PJ

    Peter J.

    9 8 2017 16:25

    1       0

    Short term trade fully understand the bet on the EUR v Dollar. Long term trend far from convinced.
    Stated that core Europe was strong / solid and then included Italy and Spain in the core?
    Personally long term (whatever that means) IMO, the EUR is a dead duck OR it loses a number of key participants (Italy / Greece / Spain / Portugal......).
    So as a short term trade I think he has got it right, but the rest of the argument was dubious.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    9 8 2017 04:45

    0       0

    Thanks for comments, helped me decide to use my time on another episode. :-)

  • DR

    David R.

    1 8 2017 23:32

    14       5

    I think he nails the target and the obamacare problem in the US. (McCain was a bitter old backstabbing traitor to his party and country).

    This move up in EURUSD was widely forecast to start the year by many Elliotwave technical analysts. It's a textbook B wave. A simple reactionary move. Nothing falls straight down. This is a sucker wave, like many before, to draw as many people as possible into the wrong position and inflict as much financial pain as possible on them. EURUSD target is about 1.28 in wave B, after which EURUSD will plunge to a new all-time low in wave C. A=C.

    • JC

      John C.

      2 8 2017 19:29

      3       1

      Eliotwave makes sense I can buy that. What I'm having a hard time swallowing is this "EU growth is better now, all the political problems are solved, Draghi will lay off the gas on his QE while the US won't tighten anymore so that's why the Euro is strengthening" narrative. For one, the EU's growth remains abysmal and less than 1% for most nations whereas the US just printed a 2.6% 2nd quarter. . Higher unemployment, more regulations, endless socialism with millions more unskilled men coming to live off government largesse (and not to work for the most part). The USD has had a huge move from 1.04 almost to 119 so maybe it gets to 128 but why?

    • RS

      Richard S.

      8 8 2017 21:20

      0       1

      The geopolitical mess that trump is creating is effecting with macro data speculators who see a safer bet in Europe. US political issues. China credit issues. Emerging markets are too uncertain. Europe is the safe(r) bet(for now)

  • PU

    Peter U.

    1 8 2017 21:20

    23       9

    Prefer that we wait a long long time before interviewing this guy again.

  • WS

    William S.

    1 8 2017 20:34

    17       2

    I found myself repeatedly exclaiming, "What? That's simply not true!" And that was during those rare instances when what Ashraf was saying actually rose at least slightly above the level of incoherence. Alas, those instances were few and far between. In the end all I could think of was: "Man! I could have done something useful and productive during that half hour I just wasted."

  • DS

    David S.

    1 8 2017 18:22

    2       2

    It is also possible that populist sentiment declined in Europe because Europeans saw the chaos that populism caused in the US. Populist can get elected, but have a hard time governing. DLS

    • DR

      David R.

      1 8 2017 23:19

      3       0

      Nothing moves in a straight line. Wait until next year with Italy as you conclusion may or may not be premature.

    • JC

      John C.

      2 8 2017 18:53

      4       4

      Keep in mind the "chaos" in the US is just the far left maistream media hysterically pushing that narrative. Sure Trump is a boorish bully but he does have some good policies. It's not like the US was on a great trajectory before Trump's election..tha'ts the point. It's slowly crept into a much more socialist / crony-capitalist economy and people aren't happy and the ones that want change are further incensed by the Deep State and powers that be endless attacking Trump and trying to prevent anything from really changing (and I'm no Trump fan, but what's going on with the press and existing government bureaucry is appaling).

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    1 8 2017 16:16

    4       3

    No update on Mahrez situation?! aside from that fantastic stuff from Ashraf. Love to see more from himself

    • MY

      Madjid Y.

      1 8 2017 21:54

      2       0

      I guess the EURGBP will have a role to play in the Mahrez situation

  • SD

    Shyam D.

    1 8 2017 15:59

    4       0

    Thats Ashraf. Very retail.

  • RO

    Rodica O.

    1 8 2017 14:53

    17       0

    I was a lont time subscriber to Mr. Laidi service - average at best..
    Great salesman but a sh...ty trader . Nothing else to add.

    • FF

      Fritz F.

      1 8 2017 23:57

      8       0

      My impression too. I prefer traders like Gurevich who are humble and know what they don't know

  • DT

    Dave T.

    1 8 2017 14:45

    11       4

    I love RE.

    But I must say, for the second time today I was thrown. Please get the cameraman, cameraperson, whatever to use the damned tripod. This is not MTV. You have content, not crap. All the camera jiggling and movement, change of angles, etc. detracts from that.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    1 8 2017 14:01

    17       4

    may just be me, but I didn't get anything useful from this. Felt like I was in a noisy bar and my friend brought his colleague with him and the guy couldn't stop talking . . .

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      1 8 2017 15:35

      9       1

      To the extent that one's time is consumed as a highly paid functionary within the present system perhaps this analysis, i.e. attempting to predict the actions of a cartel that controls the world via the quantity and price of currency, is useful. But to those who have transcended this world view it was a perfect example of the gross misallocation of human capital impelled by the synthetic debt based monetary system. Imagine what this man might accomplish if his mind was put to something productive. Lastly, the so called Rubin strong dollar policy was/is nothing more than a euphemism for a weak gold policy. To assert that the gold price does anything other than trend erratically according to the tactical and strategic designs of the exchange stabilization fund and BIS is disingenuous, to put it kindly. Other than that, great interview!