Realignment of Expectations for Real Estate Debt

Featuring Natalie Howard

Natalie Howard is a highly experienced debt practitioner in the UK institutional property market, with a strong background in commercial real estate securitizations. As alternative lenders move in to fill the void in this space that followed the financial crisis, Natalie charts their rise, comparing the market opportunity, regulation and risk reward with the US, as investors seek yields to match ever increasing liabilities. Filmed on July 18, 2017, in London.

Published on
10 August, 2017
Topic
Europe, Housing Market, Lending
Duration
37 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Real Estate
Rating
29

Comments

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    17 8 2017 06:18

    3       0

    I am really impressed by the interview style, calm, structured, excellent questions and very easy to listen to!

  • ZH

    Zayd H.

    15 8 2017 18:42

    6       0

    I've never met Natalie, but was highly impressed with this interview. This is the gold standard primer on alternative commercial real estate lending. Great interviewing as well. Should be watched by investment allocators and anyone else who is involved in, or thinking about being involved in, private credit markets.

    An outstanding example of the breadth and quality of RV interview. Not an interview about how one whips around billions in intricate and genius strategies. Just a concise and highly digestible introduction to a massive asset class.

  • ZH

    Zack H.

    13 8 2017 23:29

    2       0

    Had clients lock in CRE LTV @85% for 20 yr fixed rate of 3.85%. Would probaly be A- to BB rated. Talk about risk free world!

    • JC

      John C.

      27 8 2017 18:16

      0       0

      its still higher than Euro HY (although much shorter maturity, on second thought that's really low for 20-year debt)

  • ZH

    Zack H.

    13 8 2017 23:27

    0       1

    Fun fact i worked for Canada's development bank ans last summer with yields are they're low there was about 125bps spread in their 1 and 20 year fixes rates. They were only CRE lender offering 20 year

  • ZH

    Zack H.

    13 8 2017 23:11

    2       0

    This is right up my alley. I worked in CRE financing area for last 12 years, this past spring i have ventured out to start my own small alternative lending fund. In the process of raising the equity n

  • WK

    William K.

    12 8 2017 13:14

    6       1

    Senior debt investor - "I thought of the worst thing I can think of and I still got my money back." Equity investor - "How much can I make out of this."

    Wise insight at this point of the global business and market cycle.

  • WK

    William K.

    12 8 2017 13:08

    2       0

    Santander is the credit standing behind US subprime auto lending? Surprised to see their 5y senior CDS at 51bps - on par with JPM. Hmmmm....

    • JC

      John C.

      27 8 2017 18:07

      0       0

      It's a short per the US auto market videos a month or so ago....

  • HK

    H K.

    12 8 2017 03:54

    2       0

    Did anyone just hear that the pension funds have no clue about the risks they are taking. Who are the these people at the pension funds? Hmmm... I match my assets to my liabilities and have no clue about the leverage I am taking in order to get 20% plus returns. In this case, history repeats and doesn't rhyme...

  • DG

    Daniel G.

    11 8 2017 15:59

    12       1

    I like the focused style of the interview and her answers. She didn't try to be everything to everyone, she knows commercial real estate intimately and spoke in depth about that market. Recently there have been so many interviews that cover 25 subjects in an hour.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    11 8 2017 12:55

    3       0

    I enjoyed this interview as I know nothing about commercial real estate. Great primer and articulation in terms I can relate to. Thanks, RV!

  • SP

    Steve P.

    11 8 2017 06:18

    5       1

    Natalie has raised an incredibly interesting point - continuing low rates will likely mean no real wash out in real estate prices during the next down turn. Therefore as an investor looking for moderate returns and low capitol risk, can I assume that if I believe that 'low rates for longer' will be my mantra for many a year yet, I should overweight an investment portfolio with real estate holdings in some form?? Having been, for some time now, primed with cash waiting for the price crash in 'down under' real estate, maybe just maybe it could be be a long and fruitless wait.
    Oh for the good old 'pre interfering central bank' days of reasonably predictable investment opportunities.

  • AH

    Alan H.

    11 8 2017 03:41

    5       0

    I found this interview to be quite interesting. It complemented well our knowledge base on real properties and related senior debt markets. Ms. Howard's presentation generated at least three new ideas for our trading and investment portfolio. I welcome Natalie Howard's return in a future season.

  • BS

    Blair S.

    11 8 2017 01:38

    5       0

    'I need an 8'... that pretty much sums it up these days.

  • BT

    Brent T.

    10 8 2017 23:48

    12       0

    It would be interesting to see an interview regarding Canadian Real Estate

  • KA

    Kristian A.

    10 8 2017 23:09

    0       21

    Ok the first RV interview during which I actually fell asleep. Mike Green every day please!

    • js

      jacob s.

      11 8 2017 00:52

      9       1

      don't be rude

    • PU

      Peter U.

      11 8 2017 14:07

      1       2

      I appreciate your honesty

    • JL

      Jacob L.

      11 8 2017 14:41

      10       1

      CNBC might be more up your alley...

  • JY

    James Y.

    10 8 2017 20:58

    11       2

    I actually quite enjoyed this. Im relativelynew to RV so maybe this comment is unsubstantiated, but a lot of interviews are great...but so draining in how down beat everyone is. It was refreshing for someone not to have 'THE WORLD IS GOING TO END' delivery. Anyhow, love the other stuff, but this was a good interview for someone to learn about a sector I knew little about.

    • TS

      Thomas S.

      11 8 2017 15:56

      3       0

      The world as we knew it has already ended.

    • HK

      H K.

      12 8 2017 03:42

      1       0

      And it ain't getting any better. Funny how the much of the stupidity of securitization has migrated to other parts of the world after the damage had already occurred in the US. Outside of asset backs backed by credit card loans and possibly other short-dated and short maturity collateral there should be great regulation and greater scrutiny of CMBS and residential mortgage-backed securities.

      When the wheels come off again there will be some opportunities in this sector.