The European Conundrum

Published on
September 19th, 2019
Duration
49 minutes

The European Conundrum

The Interview ·
Featuring Andreas Steno Larsen

Published on: September 19th, 2019 • Duration: 49 minutes

Andreas Steno Larsen, joint head of macro strategy at Nordea Markets, sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss the European banking system’s current predicament and the implications of the ECB’s recent announcement of “QE Eternity.” He runs down the risks facing Europe to explain his forecast for what the next five years will look like for the Eurozone. Steno Larsen also shares his thesis regarding whether central banks can stay one step ahead of the markets. Filmed on September 13, 2019 in London. Learn more about Macro Insiders here: http://www.realvision.com/macro-insiders

Comments

Transcript

  • CL
    Clinton L.
    24 September 2019 @ 05:49
    Any idea why the Ukrainian Hyrvnia is performing so well?
  • JC
    Juan C.
    23 September 2019 @ 21:14
    Excelent interviewee and interviewer!
  • RS
    Ruben S.
    23 September 2019 @ 13:30
    very interesting analysis! why dont you think there is a risk of a currency/confidence crisis for the countries where central banks keep crowding out investors along the risk curve? could the market start to punish those CBs/governments even before you get inflation? or can they continue printing money to save the economy every time a part of it is falling?
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    23 September 2019 @ 00:48
    Growth = inflation = Positive interests rates, contraction = deflation = Negative rates. I would not be surprised to see rates go down to -3% / -5% globally in the future, if all Central Banks coordinate the effort & move. BOJ is the leader, NBS is following closely, then the ECB, and soon the FED. There will be no escape, and best way to decrease the huge stock of Debt. It can work only if cash is disappearing, which is already the case in Sweden, and coming soon to Europe. The new paradigm for 30 to 50 years to come....
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    23 September 2019 @ 00:39
    Brilliant.
  • AG
    Angus G.
    22 September 2019 @ 12:27
    Fantastic stuff! 35:10 "I don't think there are parties with a more inflationary policy than the Right Wing parties". Why would Matteo Salvini, AfD, Marine Le Pen etc be inflationary I wonder. Surely sweepening tightening of immigration would be deflationary... Anyone care to comment, please?
  • PP
    Peter P.
    21 September 2019 @ 12:14
    Loved the introduction to Andreas Larsen. Clear thinker & effective communicator. An interview to bookmark and revisit multiple times in the next 24 months. Thank you Roger for another great interview & RV.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    21 September 2019 @ 07:40
    QE4 has prob started check out the fed saint louis chart. it just ticked up https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2019/09/fred-expands-federal-reserve-bank-balance-data/
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    21 September 2019 @ 02:01
    Great Interview! If everyone does QE infinity we might get a short term pop. What I am stunned by is the fact that we don't even talk about the elephant in the room...way to much debt. Non performing debt. I come from a different generation where the obvious problem can't be solved without short term pain and the creditors taking a major haircut and equity wiped out. Its never even discussed anymore
    • DS
      David S.
      21 September 2019 @ 23:53
      You are not alone. DLS
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    21 September 2019 @ 01:12
    Nice job Andreas. Roger Hirst and Mike Green are the best interviewers at RV, absolute pros managing the flow of the conversation.
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    20 September 2019 @ 22:32
    Terrific, thanks Andreas and Roger
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    20 September 2019 @ 21:43
    More roger hurst interviews!!
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    20 September 2019 @ 20:03
    Incredible interview! It stopped and made me assess and re-assess some of my longer term framework a few times. Roger was hugely insightful too. Well done all!
  • JM
    John M.
    20 September 2019 @ 19:54
    Marvelous and timely conversation. Bravo and thanks!
  • SE
    Stefan E.
    20 September 2019 @ 18:01
    outstanding interview; macro at its best!
  • JV
    Jens V.
    20 September 2019 @ 15:26
    Very good. Not easy to find a sell-side strategist worth listening to Andreas certainly was.
  • AP
    Adam P.
    20 September 2019 @ 14:47
    This guy was great!
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    20 September 2019 @ 14:19
    Great interview! Clear and honest. Thank you very much!
  • AE
    Anders E.
    20 September 2019 @ 05:49
    Brilliant! Rare clarity and I couldn't agree more. Dollar, treasuries and gold for now. And probably short credit. I'm thinking US inflation comes later (post fiscal effects), which would signal get out of the dollar. Not sure if gold or equities would rein from there..
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    19 September 2019 @ 22:00
    Great interview guys
  • KR
    Kartik R.
    19 September 2019 @ 21:31
    Brilliant insights. One can extrapolate so many of Andreas' points and apply it to any part of the world (e.g. where he mentions how investors go even further on the risk curve when the ECB/Fed is on super-QE mode. Something similar is happening in China/South Africa/India/EMs as well and these countries are inflationary most of the time). Will need to watch this a couple of times and truly absorb all his points.
  • JA
    Johan A.
    19 September 2019 @ 20:57
    Sharp! Nice to see someone from Nordea 👍🇸🇪
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    19 September 2019 @ 20:29
    Very good interview - thanks Andreas and Roger!
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    19 September 2019 @ 18:07
    Great interview. Very helpful.
  • rr
    rlw r.
    19 September 2019 @ 17:16
    Great interview find Roger, the young guy is impressive. Hoping you sit down together again soon.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    19 September 2019 @ 16:27
    Nice interview. Tomatoe. Tomato. Legarde. Lagarde. Yikes!
  • dd
    david d.
    19 September 2019 @ 15:42
    how old is this guy ?
  • VS
    Valtteri S.
    19 September 2019 @ 15:00
    Great to see Europe specific interview. Hope these come along from time to time.
  • JF
    John F.
    19 September 2019 @ 14:44
    Any reason why the Dave Floyd Technical Trader link for today (9/19) is not active yet?
  • RM
    Richard M.
    19 September 2019 @ 14:17
    Great interview Roger! Good questioning and great answers from Andreas - would really love to have him back on again as he seems to be really wired in regarding the whole Euro-zone dynamics and issues. I think Andreas is right regarding a Fed "soft QE" coming soon due to the topping off of the GTA (over the next 3 months) and then the deluge of Federal debt that will need to be issued to pay for the running of the U.S. gov't (and if we actually get an infrastructure bill passed - WATCH OUT!!!). Is there anyway a regular retail investor can follow Andreas (does he put out regular analysis that is open to the public)?
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      19 September 2019 @ 22:10
      https://e-markets.nordea.com/ Him and Martin Enlund are very good. And it's free.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      21 September 2019 @ 12:52
      Thanks for the link Andrew!
  • VS
    Valeriy S.
    19 September 2019 @ 14:00
    Nordea markets is the best free macro research!
  • RK
    Robert K.
    19 September 2019 @ 12:59
    A nice rational discussion even if about the sick nightmare our central banks have created. Pushing Lagarde - a political person - into a role that should be by definition neutral and technical is the beginning of the end for the EU as we know it.
  • DS
    David S.
    19 September 2019 @ 09:43
    Very well done. I like the expectation for liquidity and politics to continue to move markets. Also the Euro strategy of lowering short-term rates to help the banks - which will not really help. The short-term market will inflate, but longer term no positive effect. Long term will not beneficial. Money to be made if tactical and quick. I would enjoy seeing Mr. Larsen back again soon. DLS