Francis Scotland – Le Club B

Featuring Francis Scotland

Francis Scotland, Brandywine Global Investment Mgmt, stresses how everything depends on the US dollar – from “valuation anomalies” such as Brazil, Poland or Hungary, to China at the tipping point.

Published on
5 July, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Macro, Credit Market
Duration
37 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
105

Comments

  • ml

    michael l.

    31 7 2016 21:53

    0       0

    I appreciate the need to hear conventional thoughts, etc., so in that sense it was worth hearing this interview. His defense of QE was however, weak. It may well have been a defensible policy response in 2009 and for a few years thereafter, so be it. But, seven years later? And to state that "helicopter money" is the "legitimate next step" in trying to re-ignite growth...without mentioning anything that needs to be addressed on the tax and regulatory side in order to address the growth malaise? Please.

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    12 7 2016 04:06

    3       4

    Do we really need to hear from more idiots who happily and willing buries his head in the sand to actually believe that wealth can be created out of thin air without consequence?

  • AE

    Alex E.

    11 7 2016 08:31

    0       0

    This guy speaks for the Eastern Elite who, like the Brussels Bunch, seem to view the rest of Canada as nowheresville even though the rest of Canada kept Central Canada solvent for the last 15 years while their manufacturing centers cratered! I also recall that it was the opposition parties in Canadian government who basically blackmailed the minority conservative government into spending 57 billion in 2008 to keep the auto industry from going T.U. or else they would vote the government out by a non-confidence vote! But, hey, short memories abound, eh?

  • LT

    Luc T.

    9 7 2016 19:43

    2       0

    I agree with TS: how can monetization increase the value of a currency?

  • TS

    Thierry S.

    8 7 2016 13:08

    2       0

    Helicopter money bullish for the currency... Really ?
    Stop the fed coll aid!

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    7 7 2016 15:44

    13       0

    Couple of points I want to respond to here as a Brit who voted for exit:

    1. I read the UK is the German Auto Industry's largest export market at 810,000 cars per year. Where does the 2% EU - UK export number come from?

    2. No problem in principle with EU migrants, but imagine if you were a tradesman married with kids and a mortgage, and you suddenly have to compete with a bloke living in a 3 bedroom house with 10 of his mates, keeping his overheads down so he can send as much money home as possible. Would you be happy or utterly peed off in that position? If the latter, then this is why quotas are needed to manage the initial flood, and this is why a large number of people voted for Brexit on migration concerns.

    3. Main reason I voted for leave is a massive concern over the lack of democratic accountability in the EU. In the UK (and Australia), I elect the members of the legislative house. In the EU, 28 commissioners are appointed. Anything seem a little flakey about this to you?

    Don't normally write so much in RVTV comments, but following this presentation, I felt really motivated.

  • PT

    Pamela T.

    6 7 2016 20:10

    0       2

    Informative, enjoyed hearing this perspective! New POTUS should take a page from Trudeau's policy book: raise taxes on wealthy a small percent, 4% or so, reduce taxes on the middle class by similar percent and promote some infrastructure improvements.

  • JR

    Jessica R.

    6 7 2016 06:58

    2       0

    I think the EU is up to 698 cuts so far. Since this was shot the $usd up everywhere but Jpn(shocker) ... I heard a lot of comments about soft Usd...oh boy, new base case time ?

  • JF

    Jennifer F.

    6 7 2016 06:13

    10       3

    Interesting comments. I have a doubt the British citizens are happy about cheap Romanian labour taking their jobs. nor the fact they can't control the people coming into their country. Personally I think Brexit was Independence day for Britain.

  • JM

    John M.

    6 7 2016 04:45

    1       0

    Don't follow his comment about Canada not having a securitized mortgage market in 08-09. National Housing Act MBS program was introduced in 1987. but Canada had very little subprime.

  • KK

    Klaus K.

    6 7 2016 01:47

    4       1

    I'd listen to him again. A thoughtful man.

  • kw

    kim w.

    6 7 2016 00:31

    2       1

    easy on the coffee

  • PU

    Peter U.

    5 7 2016 22:29

    15       0

    Seems he is "drinking the monetary policy kool-aide" . . . monetary policy is working . . . it is not translating into economic growth, just higher asset prices. He suffers from monetary policy delusion.

  • J

    John .

    5 7 2016 22:15

    14       0

    A very nice, very articulate establishment economist who doesn't challenge conventional thinking by current central bank policy makers at all. Nothing truly fascinating, new or earth-shattering. The antithesis of Kyle Bass.

  • ER

    Edward R.

    5 7 2016 21:09

    4       1

    Good to see a touch of Canadian content eh!

  • WS

    Wm S.

    5 7 2016 19:44

    4       0

    Many worthwhile broad-stroke takes on the current landscape...but I do quibble with his somewhat gullible reliance on reported CPI/inflation stats, esp in Canada here. His bull case relies on what everyone on the street here knows to be the case: food and asset and debt inflation are running >5% PA, not <2%, let alone deflationary. Other than that gaping hole...

  • WS

    William S.

    5 7 2016 18:49

    5       1

    This interview brings to mind the line from Simon & Garfunkel's The Boxer: "A man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest."

  • dw

    darcy w.

    5 7 2016 18:22

    2       0

    Excellent talk. I really appreciated the commentary specific to Canada. I hear lots on RV specific to US, China, Europe, Australia, EM's, but rarely Canada (outside of mining), so this was a treat. Would love to see him on again.

  • ZJ

    Zach J.

    5 7 2016 17:19

    6       0

    Some pretty far reaching conclusions here but as i see it this is the bulls base case...

    Enjoyed hearing his perspective.

  • GR

    Gregory R.

    5 7 2016 15:44

    42       5

    Give us a break. Brexit will not stop trade with the EU nor will it bring on isolation. Tariff costs (3-3.5%) are dwarfed by currency movements and yet the BOE wants to weaken the Pound even more. GB can pay the EU tariffs and offset them with new free trade deals everywhere else. Most countries are not the EU and they are doing just fine. The EU is ill-conceived and doomed to a death of a thousand cuts.