Presentation by Robin Griffiths

Featuring Robin Griffiths

Robin Griffiths, head of Multi-Asset research, ECU Group explains how various business cycles intertwine and how Western stock markets are gripped in a negative secular trend.

Published on
24 August, 2016
Topic
Investment Framework, Global Outlook, Research
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
25

Comments

  • ST

    Simon T.

    31 8 2017 05:33

    0       0

    Excellent presentation and logical analysis, even if the positions suggested weren't great. i.e. could argue most those "bottles" have been the place to be funded with gold. Excellent use of TA. Like the stop losses and the description of how to implement them too. Look forward to more, thanks RV.

  • TS

    Tara S.

    3 8 2017 19:53

    1       0

    Timeless lessons from an experienced market practitioner. May we have him back for a follow-up?

  • JG

    James G.

    10 5 2017 01:11

    0       1

    'Plunge Protection Team', I was laughing so hard I had to pause and rewatch everything he said afterwards. Great job RTV and also keep bringing the more optimistic folks too. We can't have an echo chamber.

  • MS

    Matt S.

    12 2 2017 00:26

    3       3

    Arrrrrgggghhhhh.............. put the DATES on these videos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • SC

    Sajad C.

    30 11 2016 14:53

    2       0

    Best 30 minutes of viewing. Rarely do you see someone who advances an argument based on facts and charts which he shares with confidence and are comprehendible. It usually means hours of research as opposed to the generic, cut and paste we see on Bloomberg. Explained with eloquence. Thank you Real Vision.

  • SH

    Stu H.

    1 11 2016 09:20

    3       0

    Simply Fantastic...

  • JF

    John F.

    4 10 2016 04:59

    1       0

    It is refreshing to see a financial expert who is ethical and transparent and knows his trade. When I think of Wall Street, I think of foolish managers who were hired for their profile, can not tolerate structure, and are concerned more, with building a home on Long Island.

  • LD

    Lukas D.

    7 9 2016 09:44

    2       0

    awesome! many great ideas!

  • CB

    Cliff B.

    6 9 2016 11:38

    0       0

    Very interesting

  • AE

    Alex E.

    5 9 2016 05:27

    0       0

    Other than a couple of spelling mistakes in the slides, a great presentation. The man confirms my own thinking. Andreas H, I pity you young man if you believe that the Central Banks have your back. All it would take is one exogenous event to rattle the markets and it's "Look out below"...

  • RS

    Rob S.

    1 9 2016 03:26

    1       0

    Brilliant!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    31 8 2016 13:54

    5       0

    One of the very best ever Real Vision Videos and that is saying something considering the wealth of talent whose views you have showcased during the past couple of years!

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    30 8 2016 19:12

    1       0

    Very thoughtful and Eloquently presented. I lunge to agree with him
    completely but then today, Fed Fisher states on media that Nirp works perfectly fine as equity prices are up. As worrysome this actually is (and all these CBankers should be held accountable for their adventures), this attitude may push markets up even more (eg melt-up acc to D Hay). it is painful to apply common sense while your counterpart ie CB does not bother at all. would i ask too much to have "Mr. Doom" from Soc Gen back since his fundamental view on business cycles is so valuable? tks!

  • JS

    John S.

    29 8 2016 07:28

    2       0

    Great well structured and information packed presentation Thankyou one of the best to date

  • AW

    Aaron W.

    28 8 2016 05:51

    4       0

    When listening to this fellow, the term "unmitigated genius" comes to mind. Absolutely brilliant presentation!

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    27 8 2016 21:06

    2       0

    Simply brilliant

  • PO

    Peter O.

    27 8 2016 17:38

    0       0

    Very good. Thank you very much. Great information and what a gentleman too. :-) I will now consider subscribing to FinancialSense.Com.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    26 8 2016 19:43

    2       8

    Ian J. ---> lets see how it works out, the market does not anticipate any of your axioms right now! The right site of the market is to be long stocks (gold stocks included, gold and stocks trending up at the same time, look at 2003 - 2008!) and bitcoins (as another inflation hedge like gold). If and only if, market gets below 75ma and earnings estimates trending down as the same time its time to get into cash (dollars). Until then my port stays long! Its super cool to be short right now. I have not seen this 1997, 1998, 2000, 2008, 2011. It was cool to be short 1982 - 1996 (count the years)The bell does not ring if there is a bear coming, and bells are ringing all over the place right now. At least do not short this market and be a bear an be long gold, everything else is plain wrong. It is not 2000 it is 1996 or even 1982!

  • RH

    Randy H.

    26 8 2016 19:34

    6       0

    Robin was outstanding - the depth and insight was exceptional, one of your best overall presentations!

  • CC

    Charnes C.

    26 8 2016 12:55

    1       0

    Fantastic..Secular down trend since 2000 ...just wiggles since then

  • JS

    Jessica S.

    26 8 2016 10:16

    2       0

    Nick D - please feel free to get in touch with me with any questions Jessica.scott@ecugroup.com

  • CA

    Craig A.

    26 8 2016 05:12

    4       0

    Absolutely brilliant. Love his voice aswell :)

  • PA

    Paul A.

    26 8 2016 01:47

    0       0

    Thanks Sam S., a single thumbs up for your comment just did not seem adequate.

  • GC

    Grant C.

    25 8 2016 23:55

    3       0

    A lot of work has gone into the numbers behind those charts and tables, brilliant presentation too.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    25 8 2016 23:20

    13       1

    I suggested you ought to have Robin on and.... you listened! I just love RVTV. It feels like you're some small part of making this thing happen.

    Any chance of having Felix Zulauf on as well? He is probably the best I've come across...maybe even better than Robin, and that's saying something.

  • IJ

    Ian J.

    25 8 2016 21:17

    7       0

    @Andreas H. What do you think their probability of success is? What if the "bridge" fails? What if the actions that CB's take in the interim permanently impair the Millennial generation? Is there a potential for unintended consequences?

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    25 8 2016 18:37

    0       7

    Right, Backbone Stocks! Well what about FB and Amazon are the new backbone stocks?

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    25 8 2016 18:33

    4       19

    "The capitalistic system is broken". That sentence gets used whenever something can not be explained by the presented model. Well, why not change your model, if you can not explain reality? To call an ATH on the SP500 a secular bear market rally is very, very bold. Central Banks (esp. the Fed) are going to be the heros of this and next decade. What they do is, that they bridge the time until 2020 (they see that effects that will lead to monster bull market to!) whatever it takes. And exactly this the market is anticipating! It is facinating to me, why 99% of RV Analysts can not see that!

  • ND

    Nick D.

    25 8 2016 17:33

    3       0

    This is really helpful. Great guest Raoul. Could we do a question and answer session. Maybe we all submit questions on email, you could select a few popular ones and at some point he could respond?

  • JS

    Jon S.

    25 8 2016 16:57

    4       1

    I wish he would teach at university. Love this guy!

  • SV

    Steven V.

    25 8 2016 16:27

    10       1

    This is the type of content that made me sign up for RV. Good job!!

  • JS

    Jessica S.

    25 8 2016 15:41

    3       0

    Thanks for all the comments. For information or samples of Robin's 'Global Investment Roadmap' please contact jessica.scott@ecugroup.com

  • MS

    Matt S.

    25 8 2016 14:35

    0       0

    Excellent - I love cycle analysis, and perfectly complements Raoul's cycle framework

  • MS

    Matt S.

    25 8 2016 14:35

    1       0

    Excellent - I love cycle analysis, and perfectly complements Raoul's cycle framework

  • ag

    anthony g.

    25 8 2016 12:17

    2       0

    This is one of the best reviews I have seen for a long, long while. Bring him back again if possible in say 1 year or so.

  • IK

    Ibrahim K.

    25 8 2016 09:35

    2       0

    One of the best global macro overview I have seen on RealVision

  • SP

    Steve P.

    25 8 2016 06:36

    7       0

    One of the best - a real learning curve and one of those rare presentations where I will take notes for future reference

  • TH

    Timo H.

    25 8 2016 05:14

    6       0

    Today's dollar of my RV subscription fee was particularly well spent. Just astonishing!

  • AS

    Adam S.

    25 8 2016 05:12

    1       0

    Great stuff very interesting and insightful.

  • DC

    Dan C.

    25 8 2016 03:33

    3       0

    Brilliant! Simoly brilliant. One of my all time RV favourites...

  • SR

    Steve R.

    25 8 2016 01:31

    2       0

    Its notable that his timings are pretty much in step with other interviewees who have been on RV, i.e. that the next bull market will start from around 2020. But in the meantime we could be in for a world of pain!

  • TT

    Tim T.

    25 8 2016 00:48

    6       0

    Probably top 3 RealVision interview since inception....

  • EA

    Ellen A.

    25 8 2016 00:35

    8       0

    Love this guy. Need to have him back on a regular basis.

  • SR

    Steve R.

    25 8 2016 00:26

    4       0

    Top quality! Just brilliant!

  • DC

    Dennis C.

    24 8 2016 23:54

    2       0

    All I can say is WoW. Thank you Real Vision

  • BB

    Brian B.

    24 8 2016 23:47

    1       0

    Great presentation.
    Netflix & Tesla fallen off the wall - both up since Brexit ?

  • SS

    Sam S.

    24 8 2016 21:59

    29       0

    This is what I've been waiting for! Direct, concrete, exact, no BS presentation from a position of massive experience! He said: Here's who I am, here's what I think and why I think it. Two snaps and thumbs up! In Living Color. RV TV you must get your expert insiders to take this format and bring it on. Many times my instincts tell me other presenters are holding back their inside secrets and not sharing with us the whole story. How about open up and let's roll. THANK YOU!

  • RP

    Ron P.

    24 8 2016 21:49

    3       0

    Great to have a long term perspective incorporating cycles.
    Overlaying this on demographics is an impressive stategery.
    His declaration that Gold is monewy and that it has outperformed every asset cl

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    24 8 2016 21:08

    1       0

    Real vision hit the mark here!

  • DM

    Dom M.

    24 8 2016 21:05

    2       1

    Reset technology millennials = economic boom

  • @j

    @Muljp j.

    24 8 2016 20:35

    5       0

    Understanding the underlying trends like these really help to give investors depth in their analysis. Great insights!

  • fc

    frank c.

    24 8 2016 20:14

    1       0

    simply brilliant! no nonsense, pure!

  • AC

    Aaron C.

    24 8 2016 20:04

    4       0

    Great presentation and charts. Robin speaking in probabilities reminds me a lot of Raoul's framework in his last presentation.

  • KS

    Karmichael S.

    24 8 2016 19:56

    2       0

    WOW.... I seriously wish I could spend some time in his brain! Or stay there forever!

  • de

    dale e.

    24 8 2016 19:51

    3       0

    Give him an A Plus. So clear and to the point. Keep it up.

  • MD

    Matt D.

    24 8 2016 19:31

    6       0

    Awesome presentation. Loved it. This is why I love real vision, they find tons of people who you have never heard of and they just deliver so much knowledge ; like in this presentation !

  • CM

    Catherine M.

    24 8 2016 19:10

    4       0

    I thought this was excellent. In fact, I wondered whether you would think of opening up access to it, so I could forward it to a handful of potential members who i think would appreciate it? I will wait for your response!

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    24 8 2016 18:55

    1       0

    Classic commentary and unchartered territory indeed!

  • js

    jim s.

    24 8 2016 18:54

    0       0

    wow! clear, concise and very well defined.

  • JC

    John C.

    24 8 2016 18:53

    1       0

    That. Was. Awesome! Amazing how he covered so much so fast. A real whirlwind tour of the markets and asset classes. Very informative and interesting. Given what I've heard from the last few interviews and what I'm reading it really seems like we're in for a rough September and 4Q 2016

  • WM

    William M.

    24 8 2016 18:24

    8       1

    I second many of the comments below. Definitely one of my top ten on RVT so far. Clear, precise, articulate, multifaceted. This presented a STRATEGY and thats what I need most. No one presenter on RV has had it all, but Robin presented a great outline and justification for the calls. Just fantastic!!!! Lets get an interview with this man.

  • Jc

    John c.

    24 8 2016 18:00

    3       8

    Several statements of economic nonsense in my humble opinion. First, the economy is driven by production FIRST then you can consume. Try consuming on an isolated island.

    Government infrastructure spending DESTROYS wealth. You see the bridge, but don't see what the confiscated capital could produce. Leave capital with entrepreneurs not govt. bureaucrates.

    Other than that, he makes sense.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    24 8 2016 17:36

    42       0

    Brilliant! I didnt realise how much I was influenced by Robbin until I saw this. We worked together way back in the early 1990's. This is awesome and better than I could ever describe it.

  • ss

    sanjit s.

    24 8 2016 17:00

    1       0

    Great presentation!

  • MK

    Mark K.

    24 8 2016 16:45

    1       0

    Brilliant and prescient presentation!

  • dj

    daniel j.

    24 8 2016 16:14

    1       0

    The wonderfull

  • LW

    Leoterado W.

    24 8 2016 16:10

    1       0

    Top notch preso indeed.

  • WE

    William E.

    24 8 2016 16:03

    34       0

    Grant - Raul... Where have you been hiding this wonderfully articulate man and his firm! Great presentation and his charts actually pulled together many of the ideas and concepts recent presentations have focused on; graph and visuals are always appreciated. Have him back and as always thank you for the superior work!!!

  • PL

    Peter L.

    24 8 2016 14:55

    9       0

    One of the most concise, easy to follow and balanced presentations on RV yet! Please have Robin back with an update!

  • bp

    bart p.

    24 8 2016 14:50

    2       0

    Very good, need more presentations like this!

  • rm

    russell m.

    24 8 2016 14:49

    4       1

    The best cycles presentation I have seen translated to practical strategy.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    24 8 2016 14:26

    12       0

    Incredible work. Among the most useful presentations we have had. Will watch MR Griffiths presentation a number of times. So very much data of practical use.

  • CD

    Colin D.

    24 8 2016 13:23

    16       0

    This presentation was exceptionally good. Robin had a great command of the macro issues and the confidence of someone with many years of experience doing this. Definitely one I will watch again.

  • DK

    Daniel K.

    24 8 2016 12:57

    11       0

    This has been one of the best presentations on RV.

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    24 8 2016 11:56

    13       0

    Top Notch Presentation. Very thorough. The man knows his stuff.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    24 8 2016 11:03

    43       1

    Excellent. A lot of content to assimilate. One to watch again. Great tables and charts. Good synthesis of the two approaches. Much food for thought, clear and specific. I liked the comparisons of strength and weaknesses across countries and investment type.