Sell in May or Die in July

Featuring Alejandro Reyes

Rainmaker weighs in with events of the past few weeks including the Q1 GDP print, a one-two punch to trade the Fed, and thoughts from the Mauldin Altegris SIC 2015 conference including disintermediation, the Fed’s surprise at the TLT moon landing, and velocity of money.

Published on
14 May, 2015
Topic
US Economy, Monetary policy
Duration
17 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Commodities
Rating
4

Comments

  • BV

    Bogdan V.

    17 6 2015 18:21

    0       0

    Great analysis. Love how fluid and linked every commentary is. Thumbs up.

  • GR

    Guido R.

    25 5 2015 07:28

    0       0

    Dude... bring back the beer toast at the end of your clip.

  • LH

    Larry H.

    24 5 2015 01:47

    1       0

    lovethis man!

  • rs

    ravi s.

    24 5 2015 01:11

    0       0

    So if rates are going negative what are you going to sell in may? In that scenario you buy both stocks and bonds,,

  • DB

    Duncan B.

    20 5 2015 05:37

    0       0

    Hey Rainmaker - I love your style of delivery - makes for great entertainment! Thanks.

  • FL

    Frank L.

    19 5 2015 15:53

    0       0

    Great analysis!

  • MR

    MIGUEL R.

    18 5 2015 14:59

    0       0

    Diego,for sure2:1isn't riskless. if the balance sheet expansion/stock correlation breaks, noone is forced to keep the trade going. in such a case one might put on double weight bonds. time will tell.

  • LS

    Luiz S.

    18 5 2015 14:36

    1       0

    I like his presentations, but dont exactly follow what his scenario means for stocks....

  • CB

    C B.

    18 5 2015 12:37

    0       0

    Gutsy recession call. This runs contrary to most economist projections that the Q1 slowdown was weather related and we'll see a recovery in summer. Let's see who's right.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    18 5 2015 07:44

    0       0

    Alejandro is another reason why I love RVTV!! Grant...Raoul...you two are geniuses, indeed!

  • AE

    Alex E.

    18 5 2015 07:42

    0       0

    Alehandro is another reason why I love RVTV!

  • AB

    Alain B.

    17 5 2015 02:43

    0       0

    Rainmaker, your best so far. Keep them coming.

  • Dd

    Diego d.

    16 5 2015 12:09

    0       0

    Miguel, a 2:1 (stock:bond) allocation means that, roughly, 90% of the risk comes from stocks. The trade idea might work if QE will, again, avoid a recession. If not, expect a huge drawdown

  • ii

    ida i.

    16 5 2015 08:04

    0       0

    I agree that the forecasts are too optimistic, expected inflation is down; I have a question though: doesn't Cina QE o ECB QE matter? the FED is not doing QE but the ECB is and money moves everywhere

  • SS

    Scuba S.

    16 5 2015 01:41

    4       0

    Love the @NJC chart reference and slight hint of ZH.

    Side note would love the video HUD to disappear with mouse dead time while video is paused to get a better look at charts.

  • MR

    MIGUEL R.

    15 5 2015 21:25

    0       0

    Diego, you missed the part about the '50/50' trade and the 'one two' trade. If stocks go down during QE his 'one two' trade keeps him exposed to some bonds as a semi hedge. centrral planning = risk

  • MR

    MIGUEL R.

    15 5 2015 19:37

    1       0

    Chris... you weren't listening, The Rainmaker said double weight stocks when the fed balance sheet is expenading... and double weight bonds when the fed balance sheet is contracting.

  • cr

    chris r.

    15 5 2015 14:11

    0       1

    So double weight on stocks, but die in july?????????

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    15 5 2015 11:48

    0       0

    Brilliant observations from Alejandro, the Rainmaker and Bond King

  • Dd

    Diego d.

    15 5 2015 09:06

    2       0

    Very risky trade idea. If you believe that a recession is coming soon, you cannot be long in stocks even with QE. It is all about risk management at the current stage.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    14 5 2015 23:17

    1       0

    QE-4, Negative Interst rates; Lions and Tgers and and Bears, Oh My! Queue the Rolling Stones "Start Me Up"?

  • MR

    MIGUEL R.

    14 5 2015 22:14

    4       0

    As per usual The Rainmaker makes it rain. All those expecting liftoff... get your coats and umbrellas ready there’s a storm coming courtesy of The Rainmaker. Thanks for the great reports Alejandro.

  • JR

    Jeff R.

    14 5 2015 21:22

    6       0

    Great research and video. Love how there are charts to see while he discusses it! This guy should have been an attorney -- great speaker and story teller -- I would believe anything he said.

  • CW

    Cole W.

    14 5 2015 20:17

    0       1

    The Rainmaker keeps it real.

  • db

    don b.

    14 5 2015 20:04

    3       0

    CliffsNotes buy gold & silver and mining stocks.

  • W

    Łukasz W.

    14 5 2015 18:37

    12       0

    One two punch.
    Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.