The Cause not the Symptoms

Published on
12 August, 2015
Topic
US Dollar, History, Structural flows
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit

The Cause not the Symptoms

Featuring Julian Brigden

Julian Brigden from MI2 Partners continues to explore potential weakness in Asian currencies in The Cause Not The Symptoms, going into detail on the trade shock in emerging markets countries due to China’s currency peg, and the disgorging of reserve allocations of central banks as the dollar strengthens.

Published on
12 August, 2015
Topic
US Dollar, History, Structural flows
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
10
Sharing

Comments

  • KF

    Kristian F.

    4 1 2016 19:15

    0       0

    Thanks for sharing, amazing insights!

  • SN

    Scott N.

    23 12 2015 09:54

    1       0

    This guy is brilliant!

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    17 9 2015 05:41

    0       0

    Now THAT was a presentation.

  • FT

    Frank T.

    1 9 2015 22:54

    0       0

    He certainly knows his FX and then some, absolutely impressive presentation.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    31 8 2015 05:46

    1       0

    The great equity crash of ~24-Aug should have led to many leveraged positions being stopped out. How would that affect the "Ammo Index"? Would it make the bull market stronger?

  • SJ

    Suzanne J.

    31 8 2015 02:26

    1       0

    Concise, accurate and a lesson in world economics. Perfectly timed. I will be seeking out more of this presenter. Thank you one and all. I only joined recently and it has been a great investment!

  • GJ

    Gareth J.

    30 8 2015 08:34

    5       0

    One of best contributors to RV. One of his videos makes the annual subscription pay for itself.

  • SB

    Sandeep B.

    30 8 2015 07:05

    1       0

    Excellent video!

  • WE

    William E.

    23 8 2015 14:38

    3       0

    Not to put a fine point on it but WOW! Great presentation; I say the FED passes on Sept hike; any agreement.

  • TS

    Tim S.

    23 8 2015 09:53

    2       0

    I look at these charts and think the USD strength is close to having run its course, and at a possible turning point. OK, many variables discussed lag that, but I'm looking through to the other side.

  • SK

    Serkan K.

    17 8 2015 17:14

    3       0

    Great presentation! The graphs added a lot of color to the thesis. Looking forward to more from Julian!

  • HS

    Hubert S.

    16 8 2015 12:24

    3       0

    very very good.
    Just one thing: At the end, the Ammo Index concerning the US equity market needs some elaboration. What is actually in it? F.e. margin debt and mutual fund cash levels or s.th. else?

  • JA

    Jack A.

    15 8 2015 08:45

    2       0

    Brilliant! Very clear, logical and to the point. Thanks RTV and MI2

  • LS

    Lorenz S.

    15 8 2015 08:23

    3       0

    What really is so shocking about this is the fact that the dollar influences the lives of so many people on the planet but virtually nobody is aware of this. Incredible and frightening.

  • WM

    Will M.

    14 8 2015 20:22

    2       0

    Great technical presentation and convincing delivery. Renminbi devaluation very timely although US$ holding as of 8/15. Thanks a lot folks.

  • MH

    Manuel H.

    14 8 2015 19:42

    3       0

    Thanks Julian and Raoul! From Spain.

  • TS

    Tim S.

    14 8 2015 12:59

    0       0

    @ MARDAN You can consider buying some cheap out of the money USDCNH call options via the likes of SaxoBank. Not sure there is a direct volatility index for this cross. Too esoteric.

  • MA

    Mardan A.

    14 8 2015 05:42

    0       0

    Does anyone know how to play the Dollar / Renminbi Volatility trade?

  • MM

    Myles M.

    13 8 2015 16:37

    4       0

    Superb. An incredibly articulate guy with lots of charts to back up his presentation. Must watch -- one of my favourites so far.

  • Dd

    Diego d.

    13 8 2015 10:43

    3       0

    What I love in Julian's narrative is the extremely solid data/graphs backing him up. I'm looking forward to seeing the aftermath over emerging market debt!

  • AE

    Alex E.

    13 8 2015 10:34

    3       0

    Just reiterates what Raoul said in his "Unintended Consequences" sets! But Raoul called the dollar climb nearly a year ago...I've said it before...wish I had a few mil to talk to Mr. Pal 1 on 1...

  • TM

    Tony10 M.

    13 8 2015 09:50

    5       0

    His timing was perfect. It just sucks that I live in South Africa, hope we pull through!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    13 8 2015 08:30

    5       0

    Invaluable to hear Julian's thoughts and priceless insights again!

  • LK

    Lisa K.

    13 8 2015 06:57

    13       0

    I had to watch this video 4 times. Many complex cause and effect relationships Thought provoking. I love his signoff, he says there is likely a US equities crash, and have a NICE Day! LOL.

  • KS

    Kashyap S.

    13 8 2015 06:52

    9       1

    If the price insensitive SWFs are turning from net buyers of US govt debt to net sellers, the Fed will have to come back to the QE table. That doesn't go well with the dollar bullishness story.

  • MR

    MIGUEL R.

    13 8 2015 04:14

    13       0

    We need Mark Hart part 2 ASAP! He was spot on re RMB deval.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    12 8 2015 23:17

    5       0

    This presentation clearly explains the weakness in commodity prices. Strong dollar, weak commodity. Since this was recorded the renminbi has been allowed to float. The results could be interesting!

  • DH

    Dale H.

    12 8 2015 21:50

    8       0

    Absolutely excellent. Will watch again.. Puts me into deep thought about how the wisdom herein is gained and how to keep learning myself. Thank to all for this top quality presentation. Am v impressed

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    12 8 2015 21:05

    3       0

    Clear and informative. Seems so simple when explained well; and great use of graphs esp the 3 long term USD bull phases, and the MSCI graph (incl QE effect). Thanks

  • db

    don b.

    12 8 2015 20:43

    3       1

    Disappointing that there was no mention of Au or Ag but since most modern economist don't believe in Exter's Pyramid this is what you get. But my guess is that gold and silver will have their day.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    12 8 2015 20:26

    9       0

    Excellent. Please come back on RealVisionTV again soon. Thank you.

  • TL

    T L.

    12 8 2015 20:02

    5       0

    Very informative!

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    12 8 2015 19:50

    6       0

    Loved the presentation --and part of the value of RV are the comments from others who watch the videos. I go back to earlier videos just to read the comments that have been added. Great learnings.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    12 8 2015 19:23

    8       0

    Wisdom & knowledge overflow!

  • AT

    Ainsley T.

    12 8 2015 18:58

    8       0

    How timely was this!

  • PJ

    Paul J.

    12 8 2015 16:41

    16       0

    The promise of Realvision from 12 months ago is again shown by the quality of thinking displayed in this video! Thanks Raoul and Grant, you are both due a very large drink!!

  • GT

    Graham T.

    12 8 2015 16:14

    1       2

    I wonder if RV have any Central Banks as clients. How about it ?
    Thumbs up if they do, Thumbs down if they don't.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    12 8 2015 15:34

    55       0

    Outstanding. Clear, Concise. It's all about the dollar. The RMB deval call was perfect, it happened during the 2 day editing process!