The Law of Unintended Consequences

Featuring Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal, author of the Global Macro Investor, brings you a critical and eye-opening update on the dollar, the knock-on effect in emerging markets, and the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Published on
5 December, 2014
Topic
Macro, US Dollar
Duration
25 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Commodities, Currencies
Rating
11

Comments

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    27 1 2016 05:08

    1       0

    Whats next? How to protect yourself from the eventual unwind of long dollar?

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    27 1 2016 05:00

    2       0

    Wow. Brilliant understanding of what is going on now.

  • FT

    Frank T.

    9 1 2016 22:46

    0       0

    Question is did QE allow/foster the multinationals to invest overseas or were they blinded by gold (the worlds next largest consumer society) looking to invest. regardless in the globalization mania?

  • SC

    Shashank C.

    25 8 2015 18:22

    1       0

    I am watching this on back of multiple Yuan devaluation ... Simply amazing stuff!
    Regret delaying my decision to join RV TV for so long - even though I had seen this video multiple times on youtube.

  • WH

    Wayne H.

    3 8 2015 22:25

    2       0

    Outsanding

  • PJ

    Paul J.

    3 8 2015 19:03

    1       0

    Well worth watching again, thanks Raoul. Can I suggest you watch this and the follow up video. Then watch the video on The Monsoon countries. End your viewing session with Parrilla's video on energy

  • DU

    Don U.

    18 7 2015 00:23

    2       0

    Exceptional and it is the video that caused me to sign on.

  • BV

    Bogdan V.

    14 6 2015 16:45

    2       0

    Fascinating presentation. Less experienced watchers (like me?) may have a difficult time connecting the dots. Back to school...

  • GT

    Graham T.

    15 3 2015 13:09

    3       0

    been proved right sir. fab analysis

  • GT

    Graham T.

    9 3 2015 18:49

    2       0

    don't hide your light under a bushel mr pal. more please

  • CB

    Cliinton B.

    5 3 2015 02:05

    3       0

    Brilliant as ever. Great ending.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    11 2 2015 10:38

    1       0

    Absolutely brilliant insight and analysis from Raul which is simply invaluable, as are most of the videos. I am so glad I subscribed to RVTV.

  • sa

    santosh a.

    11 1 2015 07:38

    2       0

    The DXY is now over 92. And the EUR is below 120. So according to this presentation, we should see some fireworks soon or have I misinterpreted it?

  • AB

    Arthur B.

    21 12 2014 16:24

    1       0

    Very useful! back in early October, as I recall, Grant Williams posted a forecast made by someone else that foretold this. Raoul's presentation here has added to that perspective, and has done so more

  • J

    J. .

    19 12 2014 04:03

    5       0

    Now this is why I am excited about RVTV...concise, intelligent and actionable! thanks Raul

  • RJ

    Russ J.

    15 12 2014 11:13

    5       0

    excellent! So really, are we in for considerably more downside in bullion? grant must also have a view on this! Would like to hear from either of you! Thanks

  • PM

    Philip M.

    15 12 2014 03:39

    1       0

    Like others think this is best yet on Real Vision.....never had the effect of carry trade explained like this.......thanks......and can we get views on market wobbles in last week please.....

  • AE

    Alex E.

    15 12 2014 02:37

    1       0

    According to some wise gnomes at a few other economic fortresses that I peruse, The FED does NOT have any other CB's back! It's every CB for itself. Therefore, what Raoul said is just a matter of time

  • NS

    Nico S.

    15 12 2014 00:36

    3       0

    Great, great, great! Easy to understand, actionable ideas, and sheds light on exactly how all the economic pieces fit together. Wait for a pause, but buying VIX calls will also buffer downside.

  • JS

    Jonathan S.

    12 12 2014 22:53

    2       0

    Markets are remarkably resilient otherwise the global economy would already lie in ashes. However, the disruptions he predicts could be large and worth hedging.

  • DC

    Dale C.

    11 12 2014 13:57

    3       0

    If he is right this has the potential to be the most significant economic event in our lives. Once the dominoes start falling there will be no turning back. Nothing the world banks can do to fix it.

  • JG

    Jonathan G.

    10 12 2014 17:43

    1       0

    What about the possibility of the FED preempting this continue with QE? Possibly their hands are a bit tied and as mentioned what have to be size of QE4 to counterbalance this deflationary event...

  • ml

    michael l.

    10 12 2014 16:57

    8       0

    Great stuff. Clear, tight thinking and well presented, with concrete, actionable ways to position oneself. Thanks. Best piece I have so far seen on RV.

  • JH

    John H.

    10 12 2014 07:08

    2       0

    maybe near term gold strength is a signal for the pause that refreshes in the USD run higher. most important thing he said: wait for the correction to get positioned.

  • DC

    Dale C.

    9 12 2014 15:44

    0       3

    If it is true that the US $ will rise during a global recession then why is the long $ Yen getting crushed on a day when global equity markets are going down dramatically?

  • BA

    Bruno A.

    9 12 2014 14:42

    3       0

    Best presentation so far. Missed a chapter on Gold, This very probable scenario can be bearish (USD strength) or bullish (safe haven in depression environment/ breakdown of financial institutions).

  • GC

    Gary C.

    9 12 2014 14:26

    3       0

    Great timing. Watching the long Nikei/short gold trade unravel this am is fascinating..Paul Mylchreest nailed it ( see ZH) as did you Raoul

  • JM

    John M.

    9 12 2014 11:48

    3       0

    Best clip on RV so far.. Clear, concise with specific actionable trades - exactly what I subscribed for - Really first rate stuff. What about Gold into y/e and Q1- keep it light and buy dips?

  • KG

    Kurt G.

    9 12 2014 05:31

    0       0

    Thanks, Mr. Pal. Just a world class presentation for regular savers and investors. Looking forward to following Real Vision as the $ move plays out!

  • JF

    James F.

    9 12 2014 04:43

    8       0

    I really like the RMB option trade idea, but how do you put it on as an individual investor? CME has got no volume. Are there markets in Asia that might do the trick?

  • JM

    John M.

    9 12 2014 03:28

    5       0

    Great presentation and I wonder what the impact on gold will be?

  • HU

    Henry U.

    9 12 2014 01:54

    6       0

    Just brilliant delivery. RVtv has taught me so much in such short time. You guys are real role models in the financial world. I'm inspire to learn something new everyday. Thanks 1k times!

  • JC

    Joel C.

    9 12 2014 01:48

    2       0

    timely. concise. pertinent. real.

  • FP

    FAZALHUSEIN P.

    8 12 2014 23:37

    0       1

    A strong dollar would be detrimental to Wall Street or is a dollar with rising rate detrimental to Wall Street. It seems it is former case hence Wall Street wont be affected..any comments.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    8 12 2014 23:21

    3       0

    FP - Raise interest rates in an economy that is 400% of GDP in total debt? That would be collapse. a la Asian crisis.TH - Definitely possible. I don't know what brings the buying opp but it will come.

  • TH

    Tim H.

    8 12 2014 23:04

    0       0

    The Fed appears wise to all this, they discuss in recent minutes. My question is whether they could put a sting on $ in Dec and continue with 'considerable time'? This then presents buying opp.?

  • FP

    FAZALHUSEIN P.

    8 12 2014 22:32

    1       0

    I have a question.
    If dollar is going high...and china wants to put a stop to money flowing out... it can raise its interest rates...rather than devalue remnimbi..

  • JS

    John S.

    8 12 2014 21:10

    5       0

    This is exactly what I hoped for when I subscribed to RVTV.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    8 12 2014 21:02

    1       0

    Can't be more important!

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    8 12 2014 21:01

    9       0

    Thanks everyone! We've got some more great stuff to come on this topic. Trust me, it can be more important

  • RR

    Rusty R.

    8 12 2014 20:08

    2       0

    More Raoul please!

  • RL

    Roel L.

    8 12 2014 19:50

    0       0

    Best presentation so far on realvisiontv.

  • AA

    Ali A.

    8 12 2014 16:55

    1       0

    CTAs should relish if these moves occur, given how poorly they've performed in past couple of years, their strong YTDs could be illustrative of actionable trends to come...

  • CH

    Colin H.

    8 12 2014 16:25

    1       0

    Good one. Lots of good ideas and info. Just wondering what forces could possibly lead this to not happen. Coordinated central bank actions from west and asia? TLT & UUP been performing for me this Q

  • PW

    Phil W.

    8 12 2014 16:17

    1       0

    Thanks so much for that
    Have a few commodity stocks my self. I will switch and spend some time on this $US trade.

  • PR

    Peter R.

    8 12 2014 16:10

    0       0

    Thanks, lots of rational and reasoned argument and potential follow up ideas. This really is worth the subscription. More like this please!

  • BB

    Brian B.

    8 12 2014 16:01

    0       0

    That was Fantastic! Simply brilliant and worth the price of admission alone.

  • DB

    Duncan B.

    8 12 2014 15:54

    0       4

    Bejaysus - I'm 60% in gold and gold miners; 20% Bitcoin; and 20% base metals. What should I do?

  • DC

    Dale C.

    8 12 2014 15:12

    2       0

    This one presentation is worth the price of the yearly subscription.

  • MM

    Myles M.

    8 12 2014 15:06

    36       0

    For me, this has to be the best presentation so far: real-time, actionable information with clearly explained reasons why Raoul believes there's a change coming, and what signs to look for to confirm.

  • SM

    Steven M.

    8 12 2014 14:48

    9       0

    "stay focused, coz this shit is really real"