Rewind – Demographics, Debt and Deflation – Mark W Yusko

Published on
10 February, 2017
Topic
China, US Economy
Duration
79 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Cash

Rewind – Demographics, Debt and Deflation – Mark W Yusko

Featuring Mark W Yusko

An hour spent with Mark W Yusko, as he reviews some of his investment decisions and ideas with the benefit of hindsight, makes for a truly inspiring lesson for all investors. In this edition of Rewind, Mark gets into the true meaning of value and knowing when to hold cash, as well what to expect going forward for a global economy constrained by the ‘Killer Ds’ – and an update on his position for China.

Filmed on January 10, 2017 in North Carolina

Published on
10 February, 2017
Topic
China, US Economy
Duration
79 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Cash
Rating
40
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Comments

  • TE

    Tito E.

    28 4 2017 21:03

    1       0

    Is that Noel Edmonds? Deal or No Deal..

  • JK

    Jon K.

    24 2 2017 17:38

    0       0

    One of the more enjoyable videos from RVTV in some time.

  • KJ

    Kris J.

    19 2 2017 02:44

    3       0

    Capitalism, Individualism, Patriotism, Loyalism, Realism...some ism's that don't seem all that bad. He also references "forever" a time or two as to directions of item he is discussing. Otherwise, great food for thought.
    Thanks,
    RV

  • RP

    Raul P.

    17 2 2017 21:20

    5       0

    Great interview. Not sure why people compare his short term investment results vs. the S&P 500. That's just one asset class - A manager like this is meant to do well in full market cycle and to have less or no correlation to certain indices. I'm not saying that I would farm out 100% of my portfolio to him , but his style and philosophy only compliments exposure to say a passive approach that will never raise cash even of the data suggest the zombie apocalypse is happening tomorrow. It's now about how much you make in any given year, it's about how much you keep and don't lose when times are difficult and the market is tanking. I hope people appreciate the fact that these managers are trying to protect wealth and make well informed decisions based on DATA not on intuition.

  • AD

    Alistair D.

    14 2 2017 15:44

    4       0

    Great interview. Any chance of getting Jeremy Grantham?

  • JC

    John C.

    14 2 2017 10:09

    5       2

    Talks a great game but his results speak otherwise as other commentators have noted. I like his informative style and he's clearly got a ton of experience and 'touches' on various asset classes. That's very interesting to hear about. I'll admit it's always a good interview and one I like to watch. But from his Tweets and interviews it's clear he's very anti-Trump and I'm not sure why he and others can't get over the current President's style and demeanor and see that many of his policy ideas are actually pretty good and 'draining the swamp' is exactly what we need now...even if it might be imperfect (to say the least) and/or a last ditch effort in the face of all the other policy disasters (which ultimately will likely only right the ship for a short period).

    Repeatedly hating on Trump just because you're more on the left side of the equation is getting pretty tiresome at least for me, even from really smart or experienced people. We're at where we're at because a huge edifice of creeping socialists has gotten us here - not because 'capitalism' has failed us despite how many on the left wish to portray it. Both economically and socially the West is an absolute mess, particularly Europe (witness 'Feminists' in Berlin chanting 'Allahu Akbar" the other day, or the insane public spending and pension schemes, or the corrupt, dysfunctional Brussel's edifice trying to hold on to power, etc. etc.)

    Still nice job very good food for thought.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    14 2 2017 01:29

    7       0

    Mark is/was a perfect Guest for the "Rewind". Personally, I think I have actually learned more from the rewinds than from many of the other presentations. The rewinds are a great conceptual part of RV----thanks Milton!

  • CD

    Colin D.

    13 2 2017 17:06

    0       0

    Yet another great interview - keep them coming.

  • PJ

    Paul J.

    13 2 2017 15:23

    2       0

    Good video. Thanks for this -- and it's funny seeing everyone bagging on his results. He piled into MLPs in March 2016, most funds there are up 100%+ since then -- how many of you comment heroes did that? All interesting is people basing their reviews on one year's outcome; patience does matter. Always will.

  • TB

    Tyler B.

    13 2 2017 06:20

    9       0

    When Mark is talking about "ism"s (~63 min remaining), I'm curious how he would respond to the Sir James Goldsmiths interview (hat tip to Raoul Pal who I believe for pointing this out a few months ago -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s&t=2424s )...if you haven't seen it it's a must watch. High-level: Goldsmith is v against GATT (future WTO) for developed countries: "it is the poor in the rich countries who will be subsidizing the rich in the poor countries".

  • TC

    Tim C.

    13 2 2017 03:46

    3       14

    Very good interview. Ultimately not impressed by his views though. Why would I pay him to hold cash? A chequing account can do that for a whole lot less....Also, his intense distaste for "passive" etf's is so obviously influenced - out of necessity - by virtue of his profession, that his complex theories against are almost certainly tainted by confirmation bias....

  • NH

    Neil H.

    12 2 2017 22:07

    2       0

    Mark is a great speaker and showman. His analysis that 2016,17 and 18 is just like 2000,01 and 02 have been my thoughts as well. Remember how value did back then, well it looks like it may repeat itself.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    12 2 2017 21:06

    1       0

    the signs on the wall (some my ipad did not allow to post in one message. apologies).

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    12 2 2017 21:06

    2       0

    but CB interference/distortion never been bigger. investors sometimes tend to forget that. and when the sell off hits the fully invested fund manager, he/she will sure get the blame for having missed

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    12 2 2017 20:50

    10       1

    Mark summarized it best: to me RVTV is truly about tutoring/mentoring me, learning how others think and structure their investments accordingly. bear in mind, investors' patience has never been shorte

  • GH

    Gloria H.

    12 2 2017 19:35

    3       0

    Just brilliant. I wish I had the time to watch this another 5 times, it was so content-rich. Big thanks to you both for such a wide-ranging and informative conversation.

  • ns

    niall s.

    12 2 2017 18:52

    0       0

    Thanks for naming the ETF Phillip , it helps bring perspective , as he is a very good speaker and highly persuasive. That said, patience is part of his strategy , but we are all dead in the long run .

  • SA

    Sasha A.

    12 2 2017 18:40

    9       0

    Talks a great game. Results speak otherwise.

  • RC

    Roger C.

    12 2 2017 15:21

    1       0

    Excellent interview. Thank you guys!

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    12 2 2017 12:12

    0       0

    Edit: GMO was probably rather a reference to Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo? An acronym glossary in the transcript would be great in my opinion!

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    12 2 2017 12:05

    6       0

    Excellent thoughts on passive vs active, I also agree that when the time comes, people will have nowhere near the time they think they could have to rush out the doors. On the other hand, not that surprising for this industry I guess, I have a hard time with some arguments with respect to ethics, at least my own: buying phrama because he thinks Trump will not be able to reduce corruption? So Mark is long crony capitalism but on the other hand would like the business cycle to shake out weak companies? Hmmm... Maybe Grant could dig a little more into the ethics part of investing? (i.e. w.r.t also long coal, long GMOs?)

  • bs

    bernard s.

    12 2 2017 10:51

    1       0

    this guy is excellent. that you for your time Mark.

  • DS

    Daniel S.

    11 2 2017 22:04

    2       0

    Thank you RV...simply another excellent interview. RV has become my mentor.

  • GS

    Greg S.

    11 2 2017 21:35

    9       0

    One of the biggest take aways that I agree with is recessions are good for capitalism as they wash out weak/zombie companies. Due to the GFC U.S. business became much more efficient at producing and cutting costs. Same with oil companies after oil crashed. The Fed trying to control the business cycle prolongs it letting excesses build up and ultimately makes downturns worse.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    11 2 2017 18:26

    16       24

    Well, the sp500, Russel, nasdaq100 and earnings estimations sp500 just hit historical all time highs with very nice momentum (with a PE of 18 on the SP500 now), same with advance decline lines, everything happening after a bad time for stocks since 2000 in general (so more then a lost decade). We have low interest rates and not an inverse interest rate curve. Housing is very strong. US has super great demographics. IT, Blockchain, Biotechnology, Energy, (Solar, Batteries, Oil drilling) - Innovation all over the place. And we had a good start in 2017: http://fat-pitch.blogspot.de/ So right now, there is no other way then to assume we are in a blazing bull market in line with Waverly Advisors. I have a hard time to get any bear case right now. Could be Its 1996 or its even 1982 all over again.

  • JM

    John M.

    11 2 2017 18:02

    11       0

    I would like to see a RV interview about investing in commodities.

  • AD

    Anton D.

    11 2 2017 17:49

    1       0

    Grant- he didn't get the first one right, with the ban, and the markets brushed it off. I wonder ,what it would take.

  • P

    Phillip .

    11 2 2017 16:49

    11       8

    Proof is in results, I invest for results. His are not good! look at makeup of his ETF GTAA, its all over the place.

  • AH

    Aaron H.

    11 2 2017 15:29

    3       0

    What role are central banks in creating low market vol and a support base for high asset prices by directly purchasing assets vs. creating the money supply. I'd like to see a discussion to understand this better.

  • GA

    Giedrius A.

    11 2 2017 13:35

    1       0

    phenominal interview. Thank you

  • DP

    David P.

    11 2 2017 12:04

    7       0

    Amazing insight. I never heard as good as this argumentation against etf's before. Thanks Mark for broadening my thinking.

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    11 2 2017 10:29

    3       0

    The sort of interview you need to listen multiple times...

  • WB

    William B.

    11 2 2017 07:53

    1       0

    Supurb throughout!

  • DG

    Don G.

    11 2 2017 01:37

    5       0

    The last few minutes are exactly right. As George Castansa said do the opposite.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    11 2 2017 00:49

    27       0

    Brilliant. I would love to hear Seth Klarman and/or Jeremy Grantham too.

  • DL

    Derek L.

    11 2 2017 00:34

    15       0

    I don't buy the Presidential cycle theory. It's interesting but central banks are driving the distorting the business cycle now IMO.

  • AM

    Alexander M.

    10 2 2017 23:14

    4       0

    Always a pleasure to listen to Mark.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    10 2 2017 21:55

    19       1

    Grant you did a fantastic job. Live, grow & prosper. Mark, thank you for your look at the perspectives from both sides of the mirror. This is superb information anyone can follow and put to work. Helping us to organize our thoughts and evaluate our research or just our instincts. Bravo guys!

  • RM

    Robert M.

    10 2 2017 21:43

    3       2

    George HW Bush was a Pres elected after an 8 yr term who didn't get a recession in his first year.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    10 2 2017 20:22

    4       0

    Absolutely spot on.
    Another winner Grant!
    Thank you RV.

  • DK

    Damian K.

    10 2 2017 19:51

    1       0

    Great discussion towards the end of this interview

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    10 2 2017 19:45

    20       0

    This is one of my top five favorite clips. I regret not watching the previous clip. The clip exemplifies the best components of RV- how to think and adapt. I am beginning to understand that it is not right nor wrong but depth of understanding of fundamental drivers that allow one to identify concerns early and diagnose implications and adjust strategy accordingly. Or, seeing that everything is connected and spread across time so that some things will revert to their historical "truths" which reveal actions to consider. Awesome job guys! ****

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    10 2 2017 19:13

    19       1

    One of the great things about Mark is the consistency of his fundamental view. Incredibly charismatic too.