Comparing Market Tops – Do Stocks Have More Room to Run?

Published on
November 14th, 2019
Duration
10 minutes


Comparing Market Tops – Do Stocks Have More Room to Run?

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Dave Keller

Published on: November 14th, 2019 • Duration: 10 minutes

Dave Keller, CMT, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, was burned badly when he called a market top in equities in 2013. Keller reexamines what he saw then, explains the indicators he missed, and draws on the similarities and differences between these two markets to make sense of what to expect from the stock market over the short and medium term. Keller also provides the three charts he thinks everyone should add to their daily routine. Filmed on November 13, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • DP
    David P.
    16 November 2019 @ 20:37
    Thanks for the presentation Dave. Enjoyed it! Your RSI above 80 versus above 70 below 80 statement...Any empirical data on that that's easily at hand? E.g., 1 week, 1 month performance etc?
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 18:57
      Thanks for the kind words David! No empirical data to share, only my experiences using that as an indicator. On my growing list of "things to dig into on a rainy day" and although we have plenty of those in Seattle, those tend to be work days as well. :) Thanks again!
  • MN
    Michael N.
    16 November 2019 @ 19:36
    solid presentation thank you
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    16 November 2019 @ 01:20
    Great, bull-shit-free content.
  • BS
    Bradley S.
    15 November 2019 @ 03:30
    Dave- thank you for the very good presentation. You're an excellent speaker. Thanks for sharing that bit of painful history as well. RV- on my iPad, all of Dave's charts are high-resolution. On my laptop, the charts are slightly blurry. Also, why aren't the charts included in the transcript? Surely StockCharts gave copyright permission?
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 18:58
      If it saves others from similar painful experiences, I'll feel just fine about that! Thanks for the feedback.
  • JJ
    Jesse J.
    15 November 2019 @ 00:40
    Mr. Keller, thank you for sharing your thoughts on the market. I also appreciate you sharing your mistakes it's been hard for me to take a loss when I was so convinced I was right so I know exactly how you felt. I've given up on predictions myself. Instead opting to go long the companies I like and purchase low probability puts as insurance protections. My question is "if you can remember (it's been a while), what made you feel the market had topped in 2013?" -- "Was it technical markers only or was it fiscal and financial as well?" Thanks for the content!
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:00
      Thanks for the comments Jesse. I'm a technical analyst and have always worked with fundamentally-oriented portfolio managers and analysts. So while I feel technical analysis is just one input among many, I've always focused on the charts. So for me, it was purely based on the technical evidence at the time. Thanks for the question!
  • DR
    David R.
    14 November 2019 @ 21:16
    Dollar weakness is underwriting US stocks, but, as per Ray Dalio, US is dead money for 1-2 decades. Per Ray, the two biggest longterm market risks are being long the US and not being overweight the right EM. In particular, Ray picks China, which he states will with absolute certainty be the new global empire, like it or not.
    • JJ
      Jesse J.
      15 November 2019 @ 00:47
      I like Ray Dalio. I've read Principals and Crashed and found them both very interesting. You can tell he's done his work far above the average institutional investor. Also, he's probably right, but I think for the wrong reasons. China will probably become the new global superpower but I'm not entirely convinced that will benefit the U.S. at all. A few of us might make some money on betting on Chinese companies but to what end? A few extra dollars in our pockets and the loss of our way. I see China as building a trap with corn on the ground while covering the noose and Ray is the guy throwing the corn out there.
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    14 November 2019 @ 19:28
    Very good job Dave. Enjoyed hearing his perspective from the past.
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:00
      Thanks Bryce. Sadly, I'm sure if they have me on in another couple years with this same topic, I will likely have other examples to share! Thanks again for the kind words.
  • PL
    Phil L.
    14 November 2019 @ 19:05
    VIX is the dead giveaway here https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$vix&p=D&st=2018-12-19&id=p93999752590&listNum=7&a=548752860
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:02
      I give you extra points for using StockCharts! :) As much as I love the VIX, I've found it can remain low much longer than you'd expect, also can become way more elevated than you'd expect! Not a range-bound indicator (like RSI for example) so no clear signals IMO. Great chart though and I hear you.
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    14 November 2019 @ 12:33
    It will be interesting to see when the whole house of cards falls apart. The only thing supporting the market is momentum and a fake trade deal that we are perpetually close to but just out of reach
  • RX
    Robert X.
    14 November 2019 @ 11:07
    I love a technician (or portfolio manager) who can dissect a time they’ve struggled and extrapolate lessons. The commentary on new highs and take on XLU & XLF are informative. Please have him back!
    • DK
      David K.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:41
      Appreciate the feedback Robert! One of the most painful and arguably most valuable exercises is to break down a painful trade/recommendation/call and unpack some lessons. Thanks for watching.
  • ss
    sugianto s.
    14 November 2019 @ 10:32
    this time is different LOL
  • RS
    Robbie S.
    14 November 2019 @ 07:12
    good overbought?? You mean market euphoria?