Moment of Truth for Bond Yields

Featuring J.C. Parets

Are U.S. Treasury yields finally breaking out? J.C. Parets of All Star Charts reviews the current setup and lays out his thoughts on the U.S. bond market. He highlights what investors should pay attention to and explains how to make the trade. Filmed on November 5, 2018 in Sonoma, California.

Published on
8 November, 2018
Duration
6 minutes
Rating
27

Comments

  • NI

    Nate I.

    12 11 2018 02:48

    0       0

    The economic fundamentals agree with your technicals. High probability bonds go higher.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    11 11 2018 16:22

    1       0

    Agree 100% although along with flatteners (intermediate term can still rise faster making IEF underperform), I thought it would be prudent to get long some out of the money TLT Puts for 19Q1, in case this thing gets out of hand such as a blowout CPI this week. So yea, IEF, TLT maybe even some AGG with an apocalyptic long end short hedge. More vol on the way! Good call and great analysis. Thank you!

  • cr

    chris r.

    9 11 2018 21:16

    0       0

    I love your videos JC. You,re animated and to the point. Keep up the good work.

  • JQ

    JACK Q.

    9 11 2018 07:03

    0       0

    shouldnt speculative positioning be more meaningful than the hedgers?

  • EF

    Eric F.

    9 11 2018 03:46

    3       0

    Great video, like this guy a lot. Good presenter but also seems to make a lot of sense. Agree a lot of the other trade idea videos could benefit from this. Love the snappy content. TBH, more than 5 mins is too long. They’re ideas, you need to work off of them, i.e. do your own due diligence. The 10-15 minute videos are just too long. I have this called a life RV!

  • Pc

    Porter c.

    9 11 2018 03:08

    1       1

    Historically banks go down in a rising rate environment so doesn’t that mess up your whole thesis?

  • JF

    Joseph F.

    9 11 2018 02:49

    0       0

    Excellent presentation.

  • KF

    Ken F.

    9 11 2018 01:41

    0       0

    JC if you have conviction why not load the boat w $ZROZ. #BigBalls

  • DC

    Douglas C.

    8 11 2018 18:36

    1       0

    I agree with Federico's comments. The best trade ideas challenge me to examine my own methods toward trading. This is one of those. I am not in this trade and I don't agree with some of his methods but they are well constructed and presented. Thanks

  • SV

    Steven V.

    8 11 2018 18:26

    1       1

    Spot on. QE = higher long-term yields, therefore QT = lower long-term yields. There's a reason the "Smart Money" is long bonds.

  • DS

    David S.

    8 11 2018 18:16

    1       1

    I know that I am a majority of one, but US bond interest rates can still go up. In 2018 the treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion marketable debt. In 2019 this is expected to rise to $1.4 trillion without a recession. The world is awash in debt both private and public with increasing risks of defaults. Defaults will drive more lenders to US debt, but where is the balance? How much of the smart money is in this trade just for a safer bet than the stock market for now? How much of the smart money is generated from risks in the venture capital market? The smart money may also be betting on the Fed to save them if the trade goes sideways. Longer-term rates are market driven. The smart money is probably correct but be careful. Do not let a trade become an investment. DLS

  • MC

    Minum C.

    8 11 2018 17:13

    3       0

    JC is the real deal and is very good at what he does. The presentation here is perfect.

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    8 11 2018 16:59

    3       0

    This is very well presented. Agree that this is how the Trade Ideas section should be done

  • DS

    David S.

    8 11 2018 13:06

    1       0

    A note of caution on sector correlations...

    Before 2018 = QE
    After 2018 = QT

  • FM

    Federico M.

    8 11 2018 11:46

    26       0

    Regardless of your view on the actual trade, imo, this is how an idea should be presented in the 'Trading Ideas' section; clear, concise and specific. Thought process > levels > execution. Thanks J.C.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    8 11 2018 10:18

    1       0

    Superbly concise, and persuasively argued. I'm persuaded, especially if as Raoul believes the equity market will soon decline further. It looks like the smart money is already positioned for this! Thank you.

  • CM

    Carlos M.

    8 11 2018 09:49

    2       0

    JC 2 questions.
    1 what is the time frame you have on this ?
    2 yesterday's close was 9.92 is this trade valid ? or should we expect a leg lower before it turns.
    I am bullish on bonds as well, specially since economic data has been weak the fed will get more dovish, plus the scarier the world gets the more money will flow to treasuries. and I am a big believer all this world wide QE experiment will end up very badly. ( just to clarify I am not a permabear, I have been bullish before, just not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel )

  • PM

    Paul M.

    8 11 2018 09:40

    2       2

    What about ever-increasing supply of USTs and piss poor auctions of late? What about negative yields on JPY and EUR basis? Who's gonna buy USTs is the question one should be asking, not drawing lines for yields.

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    8 11 2018 09:34

    1       0

    Thanks JC. Food for thought