Ominous Outlook for Autos and the Economy

Published on
April 17th, 2019
Topic
GM, Unemployment, Macro, Autos, FCAU
Duration
42 minutes

Ominous Outlook for Autos and the Economy

The Exchange ·
Featuring Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Daniel Ruiz

Published on: April 17th, 2019 • Duration: 42 minutes • Topic: GM, Unemployment, Macro, Autos, FCAU

Two of Real Vision’s most popular guests — Danielle DiMartino-Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, and Daniel Ruiz, founder of Blinders Off Research — discuss the intersection of the auto industry and employment. Joining Ash Bennington for Real Vision, the trio bring together the macro and micro to diagnose the state of the economy, in this episode of “The Exchange”. Filmed on April 11, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • DA
    Domenico A.
    29 April 2019 @ 13:26
    "743 miles of highway" seems low for India https://www.statista.com/statistics/729992/india-length-of-national-highways/
  • JB
    Jason B.
    25 April 2019 @ 02:00
    Declining sales and rising inventory levels is bad for regular auto manufacturers and also for Tesla Motors
  • BC
    Benjamin C.
    24 April 2019 @ 15:53
    Trying to be objective here, but it seems as though these guys are very committed to calling the decline... maybe a little too passionately. I agree with much of the data they point to and they could well be exactly right, but wondering why they don't give more of the other side of the argument.
  • AT
    Amos T.
    23 April 2019 @ 08:47
    Hi Real Vision team - was looking through the transcript and noticed that it doesn't contain the charts inside the video. Would be very helpful if you could include it in. Otherwise fabulous interview and discussion. Really enjoyed it. Thanks
    • BC
      Brent C.
      23 April 2019 @ 13:22
      I was about to post the exact same thing, Would really appreciate the charts as well.
  • CT
    Craig T.
    22 April 2019 @ 22:08
    The buzz words got a bit think during the discussion. Please give the lesser trained folks out here a break and explain what those words MEAN when you use them. At least the more obscure ones. Please?
  • NI
    Nate I.
    22 April 2019 @ 04:15
    2018 State and Local taxes also increased. It would be interesting to aggregate that with the Federal to see how much more of the private sector has been crowded out. Great interview. Thanks to RV and the speakers.
  • DR
    Daniel R. | Contributor
    22 April 2019 @ 01:05
    Folks, thank you so much for your kind words, support, and comments. If you are unfamiliar with my work or process, I would recommend using the following link for more details: https://www.blindersoffresearch.com/blog/a-blinders-off-view-of-the-automotive-sector P.S. After this video aired, Wards Automotive reported a 4.6% decline in North America light-vehicle production for the month of March (following a 4.2% decline in February). The day supply figures that I shared during the interview were also for March (so no improvement despite production declines). In my professional opinion, the declines in auto manufacturing have just begun and will likely intensify going forward.
  • LQ
    Leslie Q.
    21 April 2019 @ 17:22
    Excellent conversation between 2 macro and micro minds in a topic that foreshadows a potential collapse. Please put out more of these informative dialogues here!
  • nd
    nicolas d.
    20 April 2019 @ 14:26
    please bring on more deep dive like thsi one!
  • JF
    Jarrod F.
    20 April 2019 @ 14:03
    Very interesting. As a great leading indicator of the broader economy, this discussion provided very illuminating insights. Well done.
  • AA
    ALBERTO A.
    19 April 2019 @ 18:13
    Great conversation as it gets into some interesting facts and insights to project the future. Very pragmatic for us investor and traders. Best program in a couple of weeks. Thanks RV.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    19 April 2019 @ 16:22
    In depth Sector talks should be a regular rotation here at RV. I realize we do have them but they tend to be in a few concentrated areas. Musical chairs, can getting kicked down the road, we're closer to the end than nearer. When I was a young man back in the early 90s, and really the late 80s, conversation was on the impending Social Security crisis. And it was kicked down the road. This mentality permeated itself across the spectrum and is now endemic? across the spectrum of both govt and business. There is very little fuel to keep productivity going forward. Cash for clunkerswould
    • KC
      Kenneth C.
      19 April 2019 @ 16:26
      sorry, keyboard stopped working. Cash for clunkers would simply be a band-aid on a hemorrhaging artery. I'm convinced the electric car movement is an attempt to keep car sales to going and an attempt to keep productivity positive. I've lost my drum beat, I'll stop here.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    19 April 2019 @ 10:44
    Very much enjoyed. Best piece in a couple of weeks
  • JH
    Joel H.
    19 April 2019 @ 02:44
    This was great! Thanks RV
  • CH
    Charles H.
    18 April 2019 @ 23:41
    Thanks for this really great conversation, integrating macro and micro views, past and future. Very helpful. This is the sort of content you won’t get elsewhere.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    18 April 2019 @ 21:52
    Good questions by ash
    • VS
      Vasil S.
      19 April 2019 @ 04:36
      Really, really, really good questions!
  • sl
    suman l.
    18 April 2019 @ 19:51
    where do you get those data from ?
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    18 April 2019 @ 13:26
    Danielle is a real gem. Would like to see her on more of a regular basis.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    18 April 2019 @ 03:24
    China may double down and restimulate with more incentives and deregulation of the car industry: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/china-is-said-to-weigh-stimulus-measures-to-bolster-consumption
  • IF
    Ian F.
    18 April 2019 @ 03:11
    Danielle bullshitting again. Tax returns are basically all in and down 1.1% vs last year or about $30. Her Fed rants are getting tired, can we find someone else to fill time on RV...? Or does she just like the camera that much. She hasn’t made any RV customer a dime. I can assure you of that.
    • JA
      John A.
      18 April 2019 @ 11:00
      Personally, Danielle DiMartino Booth is one of my favorites to listen to. As regards making money, I think I heard a number of opportunities to buy puts...
    • IF
      Ian F.
      21 April 2019 @ 02:21
      She may be a great talker but I always ask where’s the beef? Nothing actionable but a lot of hyperbole “Fed will be back at the ZLB”. Why don’t we press the guest when they say something like that? She want us to buy fed fund futures? Why do we let these people off the hook when they say crazy shit like that...? In the real world you get your face ripped off talking like that but then again she’s never worked outside government or research so clearly never been held accountable.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 April 2019 @ 02:08
    zero bound, here we come:)
  • SL
    Stephen L.
    18 April 2019 @ 01:43
    Some great perky commentary. Will be interesting to see how big of an impact the 4.1mm off-lease vehicles have on used car prices.
  • HO
    H2 O.
    17 April 2019 @ 23:53
    Would be nice if guests were encouraged to present a thesis rather than commiserating about bad data. What has been discounted well and what has not is what I want to hear. Bad data in the global auto sector is well known.
  • BN
    Barrett N.
    17 April 2019 @ 22:47
    7 million Americans were 90+Days delinquent on car loans at 12/31/2018. I’m sure it’s risen since. That’s more delinquencies than during & after the 08-09 Great Recession. Subprime non income verification loans are at all time highs. And in Summer ‘18, the securitization of subprime auto debt was placed in market at 200-300BP’s above the 10 year Treasury RiskFree rate.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    17 April 2019 @ 22:35
    Great (new) information and an excellent host with helpful and insightful questions. If the economy weakens, rates will fall and this will hurt all pension funds. Stay tuned...
  • WM
    William M.
    17 April 2019 @ 21:38
    Superb, important and very timely. First rate interview!
  • JS
    Jason S.
    17 April 2019 @ 19:46
    I’m sick of listening to the bears. They have good facts and data but it never seems to matter.
    • JM
      John M.
      17 April 2019 @ 20:58
      It has mattered to some degree. FED stopped raising rates & will likely reduce rates in months ahead.
    • CH
      Charles H.
      18 April 2019 @ 23:43
      Now there’s an emotional barometer of the market...
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 May 2019 @ 15:34
      Clearly Jason, you don't read much history.
  • MB
    Mo B.
    17 April 2019 @ 16:37
    Ash Bennington was a great interviewer. He asked great probing questions. Would be great to see him do more interviews. Great job by Danielle and Daniel as well.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      17 April 2019 @ 18:01
      Thanks, Mo! Danielle & Daniel were great guests!
    • JH
      Joseph H.
      17 April 2019 @ 20:10
      No question that Ash Bennington should be doing more interviews. He's thoughtful and incisive and elicits precisely the information one needs on a subject. His blockchain piece was by far the best explainer I've ever seen on the subject.
  • JS
    Jimmy S.
    17 April 2019 @ 16:02
    Daniel, any thoughts regarding the possibility of a FCAU buyout? Seems more plausible than ever before.
  • DP
    David P.
    17 April 2019 @ 16:00
    Great interviews. Interesting to note, that autos (and particular suppliers) presaged the GFC. Delphi was in distress by late 2006. Auto suppliers were the canary in the coal mine, even more so than sub-prime. We'll see how this plays out..
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    17 April 2019 @ 15:22
    Excellent analysis of the troubles the auto industry globally faces. However, many have been calling for the end of autos since 2016 and how that is negative for the overall market. It is less clear that autos are the driver they have been in today's sharing economy. Of course, autos have a HUGE multiplier effect on the economy, so without them, it becomes very difficult. However, this may be a new paradigm we need to consider.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    17 April 2019 @ 15:05
    Excellent interview, bravo! Cheaper money means solves this problem very fast in my opinion. The solution is simple, the Fed MUST and WILL cut ASAP. Trump has his scapegoat and he WILL use it. . ***This assumes people still want a new car even if they can afford it.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 April 2019 @ 05:17
      The softening of the Fed stance is enough. The current rates, short, medium and long-term, are low enough to allow any viable investment. The Fed should just stand pat, and shut up. DLS
  • SW
    Scott W.
    17 April 2019 @ 14:21
    one for the record books.. I still say, as a little guy out here, that falling confidence from the very pool of consumers they're trying to sell to is the biggest 'driver' that none of you high end folk mention.. none. internet has allowed A LOT of us commoners to research, deeply, the who, what, when and why..to then look into the HOW. Compile this with watching others game financialization for their own benefits, while the actual laborer gets f'd daily..That confidence will not be brought back with more carrots on the end of the stick..it's gone. You'll be able to continue to sell it to those who don't understand it..but that pool is shrinking. Daily. Like boomer holdings..without the kids backfilling. the 'eating each other when there's nothing left' is right around the corner.. now, forget autos, we 'workerbees' know how to survive out here... how about all the people employed from financial engineering? .. think they can handle it?
  • RM
    Richard M.
    17 April 2019 @ 14:19
    Great conversation and good detailed (and timely) info on the auto market! Ash asked some really good questions too - good job Ash!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      17 April 2019 @ 19:44
      Thanks, Richard. It was a lot of fun to do.
  • AS
    Amit S.
    17 April 2019 @ 12:16
    Typically when gas prices rise people shift to fuel efficient vehicles - this may partly explain rising inventory of trucks. Also, by some estimates GM + F + FCA account for 45% of all passenger vehicle sales in the US, would appreciate if Daniel could throw light on the balance 55% - in terms of production cuts, lay-offs, ratio of trucks to cars/sedans etc. IMHO adding this data set will give a holistic picture. Till then will take the opinion of the presenters with a pinch of salt.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    17 April 2019 @ 11:28
    Well that was very sobering! Yikes
  • MW
    Mark W.
    17 April 2019 @ 11:02
    Danielle, please look at the actual tax return stats.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 April 2019 @ 21:52
      As I recall the treasury lowered the taxes withheld scheduled which increased take-home paychecks in 2018. This made many people happy in the short run, but the tax cut did not affect everyone the same way. The old conservative position would have left tax withholding the same, but it would not have helped politically. It will take a while to let the tax reform settle and see what happens. DLS
    • MW
      Mark W.
      24 April 2019 @ 20:53
      Individual Income Tax Returns: Total Returns Received: 2017: 136,919,000 2018: 137,233,000