Technical Analysis in the Real World

Published on
2 July, 2018
Topic
Technical Analysis, Trading, Investment Framework
Duration
35 minutes
Asset class
Real Estate, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies

Technical Analysis in the Real World

Featuring Tom Thornton, Tony Greer & Dave Floyd

What’s the point of technical analysis? In this episode of “The Exchange,” three veteran traders who extensively use technical analysis explain how they discovered these tools, and outline the everyday ways that investors and traders of all types can use and adapt them to fit their own styles. Tommy Thornton focuses on moving averages and DeMark indicators, Tony Greer focuses on trend lines and momentum, whilst Dave Floyd focuses on combining the disciplines into a powerful analytical framework. Filmed on June 1, 2018 in Grand Cayman.

Published on
2 July, 2018
Topic
Technical Analysis, Trading, Investment Framework
Duration
35 minutes
Asset class
Real Estate, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
37
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Comments

  • DS

    David S.

    5 8 2018 14:58

    1       0

    Good vid. What are you favorite charting platforms? Do you use different for longer-term macro analysis vs. shorter term technicals..?

  • fT

    forecast T.

    18 7 2018 20:24

    0       0

    Technicals are descriptive mathematical conventions. For the most part, technicals follow the price and volume action yet introduces novel examinations.

    I took the MACD, applied it to a basket of 30-40 stocks on a max range and discovered that, MACD consistently bottoms a max -1.5 to -2.0 across blue chips...and studying each assets individual inflection points have yielded great quarterly results

  • OG

    Olivia G.

    13 7 2018 06:50

    2       0

    Absolutely love this video! More videos on TA please :)

  • DC

    D C.

    12 7 2018 20:03

    1       0

    "And nobody's really doing any studies on your unique approach and then back testing it, or yours, or mine. You know, they're just taking these indicators in isolation." I suspect the heavy duty algo and quant funds are doing exactly that and more. They do backtests on multivariate TA signals (along with other fundamental/ sentiment etc.) to see which combination is most useful given different environments. AI and machine learning technology is only going to get more pervasive and dominate in the space. (Although I read that Man Group has to throw out 90% of its fundamental AI based models due to "non-sensible" results.) But I do think that with TA, which is more price-based, the content is prime for Machine learning to eat up, since there wouldn't be spurious correlations, so to speak in TA.

  • DC

    D C.

    12 7 2018 19:33

    2       0

    Nice presentation...something for the new and old with TA. Real Vision- can you put charts back into the Transcripts PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE?

  • HD

    Harrison D.

    11 7 2018 01:07

    0       0

    Amazing video, absolutely loved it, contained great info for a new trader.

  • JG

    Jory G.

    9 7 2018 20:15

    0       0

    Thank you for a great piece. Very informative and thought provoking for a newbie.

  • BT

    B T.

    6 7 2018 08:08

    0       0

    Great work Gents. It has been enjoyable to see the media/industry people bash TA and Wall Street preaching that you can't time the market while I see practitioners use TA as a tool, in their arsenal to simple skew the risk/reward ration in their favor.

  • AG

    Abhimanyu G.

    4 7 2018 12:04

    2       0

    As mentioned by many already, Tommy, Dave and Tony have great chemistry - makes each video easy to watch.

    I have a question - in the past 5-odd years while prices have been artificially manipulated by Central Banks, did you have to alter the way you approached Technical Analysis? Thanks.

  • JC

    Joe C.

    3 7 2018 18:26

    3       1

    The DeMark Indicator seems to be a Real Vision favorite. Can anyone recommend a good book or resource on the subject? Not just how to calculate, but perhaps the theory behind why those counts are effective. I see "The New Science of Technical Analysis" by Tom DeMark on Amazon, but I wonder if that's the best option.

    Would also love to see a RVTV series exclusively about DeMark. The idea of "trend exhaustion" is compelling to me and I haven't found the RSI does a good enough job capturing that.

  • LS

    Lee S.

    3 7 2018 17:07

    3       0

    Could Demark indicators be expanded upon next time?

  • ev

    ernie v.

    3 7 2018 13:06

    4       0

    Structure, framework, yes basic tools can give you this. The stuff explained there is only as good as the person using those tools. Each of the simple indicators can provide a clue. Those clues only feed on your basic need to predict the future based on the past. Most people seem to get that wrong. Especially new traders. Maybe bring in the players that move the MK. Do they use simple indicators?
    Thanks for keeping this simple but maybe step it up a bit next time

  • BH

    Ben H.

    3 7 2018 11:56

    2       1

    Thanks Gentlemen,
    Great discussion got a lot out of it and will watch again..
    Would love to see you expand on the topic of position sizing - pretty sure others on here would too?

  • RL

    Rui L.

    3 7 2018 08:22

    4       0

    Reminded me of a Bill Williams saying, "Trading is simple, not easy. But it is simple.". Congratz to all for the keep it simple approach tuned. p.s. love the charts design.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    3 7 2018 05:34

    1       0

    Thanks DF, TG, and TT! I’m taking it all in learning a bit at a time. I really get that you’ve been at it a long time and hence are experts! Once I know enough to mostly understand how to interpret what you guys see, I’ll be in a better place to buy into your service! 👍😃

  • DS

    David S.

    2 7 2018 22:19

    2       0

    Has anyone seen any info on how much any indexes are up because of corporate buybacks over the last five or ten years? Is the main drawback the excess compensation to corporate executives? Thanks, DLS

  • BT

    Brian T.

    2 7 2018 20:06

    0       3

    One thing I would find interesting is a discussion about how to spot potential bubbles BEFORE they happen, not during or at the top. What are the key things to look for? I missed the Bitcoin bubble and our fearless leader Raoul sold out too early, so even great traders made the mistake... What are the psychological factors that lead to a bubble? Has anyone done any work on these? Many of the RVTV contributors have been pointing out overbought / overvalued market basically since Trump was elected. But how do you ride a wave like that EVEN THOUGH you know things are already/becoming overvalued? It seems to me that the people who rode this wave were mostly lucky and/or just following the masses, and they are just as likely to lose in a major wave when the big correction finally comes. How do you spot a bubble at the beginning/while it is developing, and successfully get on board?

  • MT

    Mike T.

    2 7 2018 20:02

    0       0

    Firstly these guys are thoroughly professional and always worth listening too. However after many years of trying my own results with TA were at best inconsistent until one day I realized what the issue was. I had a problem making decisions based upon my interpretation of TA. TA did not lead me to make a sufficient number of trading decisions.

    Now I focus almost exclusively on Trading Options, mainly Short Premium Strategies where TA is simply not required to find the best Short Premium opportunities. Option trading & probabilities of successful outcome, setting profit targets, deciding what instruments to trade are all decisions based on mathematics, unaffected by personal opinions, subjective interpretation or mental biases it's 100% a mechanical process, although I will admit before I place a trade I usually have a quick look at the chart :-)

  • DK

    Davic K.

    2 7 2018 17:43

    8       0

    Enjoyed the presentation on TA... Would have liked to see different examples on different setups. It would have added to the value hearing from the different perspectives on the same chart and a position or non position they would take. Really enjoyed the exchange.

  • CS

    Charles S.

    2 7 2018 13:30

    8       0

    Again, like these chats as it gives some insight to real-world application and trading of TA. Hope we can dig deeper in the future and talk about present set-ups and opportunities. Good work

  • LL

    Louis L.

    2 7 2018 12:06

    6       1

    I like the dialogue approach. TA is a very misunderstood tool. Next time you guys want to talk shop on TA ask me to join. Been successfully managing assets for multiple decades and TA is part of my process. :-) Louis Llanes, also a contributor to RV

  • NG

    Nick G.

    2 7 2018 11:09

    5       12

    OK. Can we have some more University level stuff? This going back to kindergarten is getting a bit boring. Nothing against educational videos for beginners, just separate them out. Why not do a separate channel devoted to "Education"?

  • CM

    Christopher M.

    2 7 2018 10:49

    2       0

    Great to hear people talking about TA without the distraction of charts that you might have online or in books. I have learnt to use Ichimoku I am 18 months into my journey, and I am still learning new things every day.

    Nice to hear the honesty that sometimes the "tools" breakdown and you need to lean on friends who have a different "toolbox".

  • SS

    Steve S.

    2 7 2018 10:00

    5       0

    Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis are complimentary to each other. You don't solely make a trade based on Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis, but hand in hand.

    I totally agree with the point made that Technical Analysis helps with timing and entry/exit points.