A New Macro World for Gold and Bitcoin

Published on
October 15th, 2019
Duration
32 minutes

A New Macro World for Gold and Bitcoin

The Expert View ·
Featuring Dan Tapiero

Published on: October 15th, 2019 • Duration: 32 minutes

What role do gold and bitcoin play in the shifting macro landscape? Dan Tapiero, founder of DTAP Capital, argues that the macro world is nearing an inflection point, and any number of risks could push markets into meltdown. He explains why investors should have exposure to both gold and bitcoin in this unpredictable macroeconomic environment. Pointing out risks in geopolitics, monetary policy, and equity markets, Tapiero says a potential financial disaster triggered by policy actually failing could be the trigger for a major gold bull market and the widespread adoption of bitcoin. Filmed on October 10, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • DW
    Denton W.
    29 October 2019 @ 18:50
    This was great. Well done.
  • RN
    Raymond N.
    18 October 2019 @ 05:09
    Thank you for reading the questions! As a mostly mobile user who listens to content in the car (Audio only download), the questions read-aloud is the only way to consume this content!
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    18 October 2019 @ 02:47
    Loved this interview interesting getting inside your head Dan
  • BD
    Brian D.
    17 October 2019 @ 14:45
    Love this guy, his thought process and investment views. Super insightful, thanks Dan.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    17 October 2019 @ 11:27
    Dan : Can you explain how the USG could devalue the dollar without the Fed? Another Plaza Accord?
  • DQ
    Douglas Q.
    17 October 2019 @ 02:03
    The Saudi oil "attack" might have been taken as seriously as the ABC News video of the Turkish attack in Syria (uh...I mean...Kentucky) People aren't buying the facade anymore. They should consult with the CIA production team of the Nick Berg beheading movie. Tht one got much better ratings. Respectfully; A currently serving US Combat Vet in his 40s who is done with the fucking lies.
  • RC
    Ronald C.
    17 October 2019 @ 00:59
    disappointing
  • RH
    Robert H.
    16 October 2019 @ 17:27
    Fed has not lowered interest rates faster cuz it doesn't matter. Europe did. Recession.
  • ii
    ida i.
    16 October 2019 @ 17:09
    As for the weighting in gold, it also depends on where you live. If you live in the US you can have less, if you live in the Eurozone I'd hold more...
  • MC
    Minum C.
    16 October 2019 @ 13:38
    If the US Government goes down the path of devaluing the nation's currency unit, I highly doubt there will be a tame or controllable outcome. It will be inflation of the hyper variety. Rates will sky rocket. Bond markets will get crushed. The USD gold price will soar. US equity markets will do well nominally but not when adjusted for the depreciating currency units and definitely not against more commodity focused equity markets. This (and not deflation) is the real outlier event. I doubt it happens.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    16 October 2019 @ 13:00
    Great interview --- One thing not mentioned is fiscal policy? Monetary stimulus with fiscal austerity will not create inflation. More deflation is coming unless masses get money to spend.
  • SY
    Shin Y.
    16 October 2019 @ 08:52
    Very informative on recent political events. Thanks for pointing how the HK/China situation could be a trigger to global meltdown
  • MS
    Michael S.
    16 October 2019 @ 05:30
    I'm for owning both gold (silver, actually) AND bitcoin. How hard is that? Also, I love a macro conversation with the NBA in it!
  • MZ
    Martin Z.
    16 October 2019 @ 05:03
    "There's a path we can go where things are changed forever."...I think we passed that point long ago.
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    16 October 2019 @ 04:40
    how specifically would Trump devalue the dollar without the Fed?
    • PD
      Peter D.
      17 October 2019 @ 11:28
      Great question: I am wondering that myself ... I reposted above to get a bump ....
    • AK
      Ado K.
      17 October 2019 @ 18:45
      Increase the velocity of the dollar. This could be done through tax incentives, such as lowering sales/VAT taxes.
  • BP
    Bakulesh P.
    16 October 2019 @ 02:38
    Nothing here. Move on. Save time
  • BV
    Brendan V.
    16 October 2019 @ 02:06
    You need gold and BTC. Don't let your biases get the better of you. Both have clear advantages. Just remember that fiat currency is = toilet paper and 90% of people don't even know what money is.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    15 October 2019 @ 20:09
    thanks Dan, clear and to the point presentation - which also makes sense. Shows me you have a good understanding of macro policy as opposed to others who introduce complexity, just to end up with no real conclusion.
  • GS
    Gerold S.
    15 October 2019 @ 16:29
    i like the clear talk. please more of that...
    • RH
      Ryan H.
      15 October 2019 @ 17:19
      any reason why the videos stall so much?
  • JT
    Jose T.
    15 October 2019 @ 16:28
    Bitcoin is the only game in town: Resists inflation by "gurus" with pretense of knowledge. Is the only asset that matters that can be delivered at low cost, without permission from our overlords be they Chinese or American, Turkish or Argentine. Try getting hands on gold (not paper gold) and doing international business...TSA would have a field day. Is harder, more portable, more divisible, longer lasting, easier to assay than gold. It is easier to send than fiat for 80% of the world. Stocks are unrelated to profits, Bonds will default in droves, most likely, or are negative yielding, Fed will print, and print and print, holding cash is also subject to censorship and deplatforming (look at Patreon, etc) Gold r is easily forbidden by overlords, (look at recent history)... Bitcoin is the way out of this ridiculous system dominated by bureacrats and autocrats. Here is my strategy: Have some $hitcoin to pay for the next 2 years of expenses and the rest in bitcoin, stored in different places with multisignature protected accounts. Have some bitcoin on one of the many "banks" to facilitate liquidating in case of need. Have a paid for house in a relatively unimportant place in the world. Sit back and enjoy the paradigm shift!
    • RV
      Ryan V.
      15 October 2019 @ 19:00
      A lot of assumptions and non sequiturs here.
    • JH
      Jason H.
      16 October 2019 @ 01:07
      Yeah... real money shouldn't need a power point. Central Banks acquire real money, not BTC. It has a place but it is actually very easy to shut down and they will once .gov goes crypto. Watch China for the up coming crypto launch and see what they do to BTC.
    • MK
      Mike K.
      16 October 2019 @ 03:01
      Bitcoin is a collectable. It's equivalent to a stamp, a baseball card, a piece of art. Its valuable only to a few, those that collect it. Period.
    • PB
      Paul B.
      16 October 2019 @ 22:10
      the cost to run bitcoin globally is ridiculously high
  • SL
    Seth L.
    15 October 2019 @ 15:47
    Thanks Dan for the great understanding, your weighing of the current macro-factors and forward interpretation of roads to walk.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    15 October 2019 @ 15:44
    Dan is so, so good! Really enjoy his clear, concise, and insightful comments. Please, please have him back on regularly. Thank you Dan for sharing your knowledge and thoughts so generously!
  • IH
    Iain H.
    15 October 2019 @ 14:50
    If I could give a quadruple thumbs up I would. Thanks Dan
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    15 October 2019 @ 14:47
    Is there a Real Vision Video that doesn't say: Sell stocks, buy bonds, buy gold? In this cycle, where has capital been misallocated? SPX? or private equity? or credit? or sovereign debt? Demographics have gotten people out of stocks and into credit/fixed income. Look at the fund flows the last 10 years. Regulation has forced pensions and insurance into credit and sovereign debt. Alternative investors have ignored public equity and sought beta in private equity. It isn't that SPX won't go lower in an unwind of misallocated capital. It is that the pain will be most severe and we will see the signs first where the capital has been dumbest which is not SPX.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      15 October 2019 @ 17:00
      Ed Harrison here. I conducted the interview with Dan. So I thought I would make a few points about my experience. On form, I really enjoyed this interview as I found Dan to be a very thoughtful and self-critical analyst. I think it comes through in his presentation. On substance, if your takeaway is that Dan said "sell stocks, buy bonds", you should re-watch the video. That's not what heard him saying in the interview or in the video. In fact, in the intro bit, he explicitly says the opposite. My takeaway from Dan's macro view dovetails with the intro bit because he talks about a 'reflation' that could benefit equities all the way through 2020 despite deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. And so the big questions are 1. what forms that reflation will take?, when will it come?, and will it be successful?. For me, his views on Gold and Bitcoin as uncorrelated asset classes follow from there, because, if (or when) the reflation fails, bonds may not offset. At a high level, that's what I heard.
    • RE
      Richard E. | Contributor
      15 October 2019 @ 19:41
      Ed - fair point. I rewatched. In the first 30 seconds Dan says "I think equity comes under pressure in the next 2-3 months which causes the Fed to be easier". Didn't he?
    • NT
      Nicholas T.
      16 October 2019 @ 00:10
      Richard E, I did not watch it twice but I remember him saying after that opening bit about 2-3 months that it was in context of that being the reason trump or the fed steps in and tries to juice the market again. If you believe it will work then stay in equities for another year if you can time it right, but long term he said gold and bitcoin, and possibly ultimately bitcoin. On that note, some are saying it will be a bitcoin w some gold backing and the imf might already be working on it. That’s not to say other bitcoins may not survive and early investors rewarded, but who really knows what will happen. In phase 1 of the great rejig at least, gold feels like the safest bet to me, and I don’t think I will be alone in that thought.
    • NT
      Nicholas T.
      16 October 2019 @ 00:12
      Gold or gold stocks that is....
    • JH
      Jason H.
      16 October 2019 @ 01:11
      The S&P is rising off the back of passive funds... they don't come dumber than that! Gold and the stock market often have their best moves together so we will see. Maybe US blue chip will do all the heavy lifting, out side of that I'm not so confident.
    • BV
      Brendan V.
      16 October 2019 @ 02:10
      Totally off-base. Ever heard of altcoins? :P Not to mention SPX is brutally over-valued.
    • mw
      michael w.
      16 October 2019 @ 18:13
      Yes, because they will be coming under pressure, he's saying the fed will ease more. So that likely means equities will rise.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      16 October 2019 @ 20:48
      Richard - One thing not fully captured in the video is the under-current of policy failure in what Dan was talking about. Basically, the Fed has resisted lowering rates again as much as they can because they fear running out of bullets. But in doing so, they may not react quickly enough and 'cause' the recession - meaning (monetary) policy failure could ALREADY be baked in. What happens to equities then? Do bonds offset? Does that lead to a massive fiscal response - despite huge deficits? It's a big issue, one that has made Dan think about Gold and Bitcoin.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    15 October 2019 @ 13:51
    Brilliant framework, Dan. Thank you!
  • dd
    diego d.
    15 October 2019 @ 13:40
    dan the man.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    15 October 2019 @ 12:58
    That Korean CPI chart is just mind blowing. Thanks Dan!
  • SB
    Sean B.
    15 October 2019 @ 12:28
    Excellent, thank you
  • JR
    Josiah R.
    15 October 2019 @ 12:01
    Dan's point that the potential return for bonds this time is not enough to offset the potential drop in equities during a slowdown -- that is really important I think. As interest rates trend lower over decades, this becomes more and more of a problem.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    15 October 2019 @ 11:21
    Very smart has charts and opinion loved it!
  • DR
    Dave R.
    15 October 2019 @ 10:55
    Excellent interview - some well articulated points. Please come back again soon!
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    15 October 2019 @ 10:52
    great macro discussion about why all this matters... we are a few steps away from a multitude of bad outcomes
    • tc
      t c.
      15 October 2019 @ 15:53
      Thanks for bringing him back but I would give a bag of gold or bitcoin for someone who can say WHEN. I know a person who can but he won't comment on financial markets.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    15 October 2019 @ 10:19
    Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, mining stocks. Sweden's top buyer of iron ore is Germany and inventories of iron ore are building at the mines. Rio Tinto, one of the world’s top iron ore miners, signed its first spot trading contract denominated in Chinese Renminbi on Friday, in an effort to diversify procurement channels for Chinese customers. looking forward to the next episode. Interesting times ahead many things can happen.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    15 October 2019 @ 06:13
    Really good. I appreciate the plain spoken delivery for everyone that didn’t grow up macro. Come back often.