Are you Prepared for China’s Pivot?

Featuring Simon Hunt

Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services is a China markets veteran and Real Vision regular. His deep inside knowledge of Chinese business and politics gives him an unparalleled perspective on policy. Simon thinks that the Chinese leadership will imminently announce a major policy pivot that will create a short-term financial trauma, followed by another period of extended and exceptional growth. Filmed on May 3, 2018 in London.

Published on
14 May, 2018
Topic
Macro, China, Financial System
Duration
26 minutes
Rating
73

Comments

  • BP

    Byron P.

    6 8 2018 03:09

    0       0

    I don't bother with academics. This guy is no different.

  • JC

    Jason C.

    2 8 2018 21:02

    1       0

    predicted much of what we are seeing currently with China & USDCNY wkness. Can we have him back for an update pls?

  • JE

    James E.

    16 5 2018 21:51

    0       0

    Simon Hunt would have to be a RV keeper. Always a good idea to have an expert viewpoint from the UK.

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    16 5 2018 13:41

    0       0

    Helicopter money

  • LR

    Lucie R.

    16 5 2018 13:13

    9       0

    Simon Hunt indeed has many good connections in China, and is worth listening to. However, I found that he sometimes can make very far going conclusions based on just one or two conversations with “people in the know” in China. His opinions are interesting to hear, but in my experience they need to be weighted against all the other evidence coming out of China.

    Also, his interview has no explanation why exactly the profits in China are growing. A huge productivity improvement is required to see sustainable growth. To be able to afford all the air conditioning in the rural villages they need either to borrow more / save less or to become much more productive. What is the source of this growth? Are they better educated? Are there technological or infrastructural breakthroughs? These may be the foundations of growth. Specific examples would be much more convincing than general statements that “profits are growing”.

  • SL

    Steven L.

    16 5 2018 00:46

    2       0

    I too have been waiting patiently to hear from Simon Hunt again. I always like hearing his take on China and copper. I have to say though that in a previous interview with Grant, Simon predicted the imminent failure of some banks and that the Chinese government would let it take its course. It seems he's making the same prediction in this interview. I/m from Missouri on that one. His description of expanding growth with even more debt is totally believable. It seems the game plan in the global economy is to see who can spend the most before it blows up. The US congress will have to get to work!

  • MS

    Michel S.

    15 5 2018 22:32

    3       0

    One of the best overall video so far on Real Vision. This is genuine real good analyst and smart thinking, and really helpfull in futur guidance..

  • zy

    zhang y.

    15 5 2018 21:39

    0       4

    It's confusing, he says Dollar in secular decline 10 years, and then adds but short term, he says a bear vicious rally in the dollar, rembinbi will depreciate, he means no shortterm us dollar to go down, but to go up, and he says twice that of bear market, confusing - the intervier could take care of those details or in the edition add any note to corrrect it

  • CB

    Conor B.

    15 5 2018 17:43

    2       0

    So China just dismantles ten of trillions of dollars of shadow banking assets and goes along its merry way... what he's describing would make GFC look like a speed bump.

  • JG

    John G.

    15 5 2018 13:29

    0       0

    Interesting so a short time correction in precious metal prices..

    Yet the US dollar index will be halved over the next 7 years..

  • PD

    Pat D.

    15 5 2018 10:44

    2       0

    Class Act. The quiet confidence says it all!

  • CS

    C S.

    15 5 2018 07:35

    5       0

    It would be good to hear from Simon what precisely these anticipated 'tremors' will look like/cause?

  • CS

    C S.

    15 5 2018 07:35

    3       0

    It would be good to hear from Simon what precisely these anticipated 'tremors' will look like/cause?

  • CS

    C S.

    15 5 2018 07:35

    0       0

    It would be good to hear from Simon what precisely these anticipated 'tremors' will look like/cause?

  • DS

    David S.

    15 5 2018 04:40

    5       1

    President Xi is consolidating China's power in Asia. The only leader who can backstop North Korea's President Kim is President Xi. China would like to see the Korean peninsula without nuclear weapons. China does not want millions of North Koreans crossing its border. China does not want Russia to gain a foothold in North Korea. China does wants to let the US take as many soldiers back home as possible. All these items will be better if President Kim comes to an agreement with the US to denuclearize North Korea as well as South Korea. That is why President Kim went in a private railroad car to have discussions with President Xi; followed by a second meeting a few weeks later to prepare for the US negotiations. North Korea's testing nuclear testing grounds are apparently in trouble. North Korea is already broke. it is with the intelligent negotiations of President Moon with all parties that has brought this about. President Kim certainly is happy to meet with President Trump, but could never trust him with his life after he backing out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement. It is President Xi who is in the driver's seat. DLS

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    15 5 2018 03:32

    5       4

    12% Nominal Growth in China? Has he been smoking some crack?

  • WH

    W H.

    15 5 2018 02:36

    3       1

    He is good on copper, but doesn’t get the financial system.

  • DY

    Donny Y.

    15 5 2018 01:07

    3       4

    Brilliant guy! Much more so than I. But painfully dry personality.

  • HH

    HODL H.

    15 5 2018 00:50

    0       0

    Didn’t they already restructure shadow banking?

  • DC

    Dale C.

    15 5 2018 00:32

    11       2

    So "Huge Financial Tremors" coming soon are Bullish for the Chinese economy? Are you kidding me? Are you so positive about the Chinese Leadership to control their economy that you think this will turn out just fine? This is what I think. If they do this it will crush their economy and send world markets into a tail spin. To think that Xi is some kind of Economic God is absolutely rediculous. Hold on to your hat because if you are right and they plan "Huge Financial Tremors" all hell is going to break loose. I am not nearly as connected or as smart as you but for sure I am not going to plan investing on this news.

  • WG

    Wade G.

    14 5 2018 21:57

    13       0

    Thank you. I thought this was a very interesting presentation, and I'm wide open to the views expressed, but I struggled with a few aspects. I don't really get his points minimizing Chinese debt. He remarked their Corp debt isn't so bad when adjusted for number of companies. Then, total debt not so bad over all households. Really? While acknowledging you need to standardize to compare (I agree), I think those choices are odd. Why not simply as a percentage/ratio to GDP? Which everyone does and it looks frightful. If there's a problem w/ using GDP to frame the debt picture, I would have liked him to address it. I'm open to more positive view on it, but I don't really understand the rationale for his view. My other concern is that for me, the coming policy shift simply wasn't described explicitly enough. I'm afraid I'm too dense to fill in the unspoken details. Are we to assume China profoundly curtails their shadow banking system, and in doing so, devalues? Thereby causing transitory "strength" in the dollar? But he mentioned failures in China. That implies debt destruction, not devaluation, and no particular strength in the dollar. I get the feeling if he talked longer or with just a bit more detail, I could have learned a lot more. If anyone has any clarifying thoughts, I'd love to read them.

  • F

    Floyd .

    14 5 2018 21:16

    1       0

    Interesting points,we also have a few near term predictions to test his predictions. However, he has a tremendous level of confidence that a centrally planned economy can work that effectively. Mandating extreme change like the kind that have been announced regarding the banking system might just be a little bit more disruptive that he thinks,particularly when people lose money.

  • CD

    Charles D.

    14 5 2018 20:32

    1       3

    Brilliant...

  • DL

    Dan L.

    14 5 2018 20:29

    2       1

    Equities are going to get pounded harder than commodities by a sharp rise in the DXY. Margin of safety is too high in the commodity sector where equities are massively overpriced. The sell off will be in equities. And if velocity chooses to rear it's head during that, commodities will boom regardless of what happens. There are more factors at play than "only" a secular strengthening dollar move over the next 2-4 months.

  • BC

    Bryan C.

    14 5 2018 19:39

    5       0

    It is always good to get a variety of viewpoints. In this case, I have no doubt that he correctly characterized the Chinese intent. But intent and ability are two dramatically different things. The magnitude of what the Chinese government presumes to accomplish will be highly volatile both domestically and internationally. The idea that a pseudo communist / pseudo capitalist governance structure will be able to control all of the forces that they are about to unleash is unrealistic in the least, absurd in the greatest extent. Historically, China has vacillated between short periods of centrally controlled stability (ie empire) and rampant chaos. I suspect that the cyclical pattern will hold and that the short period of stability is about to come crashing down in a very dramatic way.

  • CB

    Chris B.

    14 5 2018 17:45

    20       0

    It would be interesting to see him debat Kyle Bass.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    14 5 2018 17:43

    0       0

    very concise! could have been longer it was so interesting. question, did the referred Xi announcement already occur?

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    14 5 2018 17:32

    7       0

    Welcome back Simon. You were missed certainly by all of us who are long time subscribers of RV. Would be great to see a conversation between Simon and Grant like in the early days. Those were powerful.

  • AB

    AJ B.

    14 5 2018 17:18

    10       0

    Amazing to see the growing number of people who believe the Xi hand is wiser than the Invisible hand

  • ZY

    Zheng Y.

    14 5 2018 15:22

    5       0

    Let me tell him, he is talking his book, due to some benefit he get in china, asking FT chief editor too. So funny, :).

  • DW

    Daniel W.

    14 5 2018 15:03

    6       1

    Please, make this a regular appearance, one a month or so

  • YB

    Yuriy B.

    14 5 2018 14:20

    11       0

    This is interesting. Would have liked to hear him address (1) the coming demographic crisis in China and (2) the coming demographic crisis in the rest of the developed world.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    14 5 2018 13:46

    6       0

    Great to hear Simon's thoughts again. He is a real authority on China, but I am amazed to hear him quite so bullish. Fingers crossed he is right about the clean up of shadow banking, which of course is a global and not just a Chinese problem. Fascinating also to hear Simon's thoughts on the dollar! Hopefully we can get more regular updates from Simon as the story unfolds.

  • BD

    Bruce D.

    14 5 2018 12:45

    32       6

    I've been waiting patiently for a Simon Hunt update.....thanks Milton! No one puts in perspective better the sheer magnitude of the changes occurring in China. The West just cannot fathom these changes, as we believe nothing has changed.....however, everything is changing more rapidly than we expected. Reason?......they have a PLAN! While the US can't get out of its own way, concerning itself with the stupidity of the left wing Liberal Democrats, the main st media, Stormy Daniels and the Russians.....China is focusing on implementing a 30 year PLAN. The US has a hard time focusing on what's for dinner, because they are too busy searching for their next "like" on Facebook. Time to WAKE UP America, as the landscape for competition is turning more Global by the minute, and we are losing.....time to get back to work!

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    14 5 2018 11:36

    17       1

    When realvision launched, it was interviews with this man, and the many others like him, that helped cemented the idea that they were doing something VERY special. Thanks Raol, Grant, Milton, and team!!

  • VC

    Vince C.

    14 5 2018 10:33

    5       2

    Great insight. Implications enormous. China (and her people) has thus far shown incredible consistency in following through on its long term vision. When such a player is pit against one acting in their short term interests (US) the one who holds the edge is clear