“The Biggest Opportunity Since Russia in the 90s”

Published on
November 18th, 2019
Duration
27 minutes

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27

“The Biggest Opportunity Since Russia in the 90s”

The Expert View ·
Featuring Maciej Wojtal

Published on: November 18th, 2019 • Duration: 27 minutes

Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, is the only European asset manager focused on investing in Iranian equities. He sees this unloved market as an exciting opportunity where pessimism and international sanctions have taken a robust and diversified stock market down to the lowest valuations in the world. Wojtal makes the case for getting exposure, breaks down some of his favorite Iranian sectors, and addresses a wide spectrum of risks. Filmed on September 25, 2019 in London.

Comments

Transcript

  • WB
    William B.
    28 November 2019 @ 01:22
    1 1
    Makes me wonder if RealVision has a moral compass.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    25 November 2019 @ 13:21
    1 2
    So its like invest into anything no morals. This guy will even buy china bond to let china expand the concentration camps. We all saw what Iran do to their citizens lately. G-by globalist. I rather put my money into Lockheed Martin.
    • SA
      Sebastian A.
      26 November 2019 @ 17:38
      3 0
      No different than investing in J&J putting asbestos in their baby powder or gold mines destroying local water supplies. Quit acting like the USA has the moralist high ground, because it does not.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    25 November 2019 @ 11:47
    1 1
    No USA citizen is allowed to invest in Iran. Illegal.
    • NB
      Nikola B.
      29 November 2019 @ 00:26
      2 1
      Not all people, that watch this channel, are US citizens. Personally, i appreciate unorthodox ideas such as this one. Kudos to RV.
  • GN
    Griffin N.
    22 November 2019 @ 18:14
    4 1
    I like this dude, thanks for bringing him on
  • MS
    Michael S.
    21 November 2019 @ 05:04
    3 1
    Great idea! Iran rocks. I knew a bunch of Iranians when I lived in Vienna. Great folks. I just wish it were easier to invest. Have been and am invested at various times in beat up Argentina, Turkey, and Russia. All their woes will pass, but clearly everyone will be whining about how scary it is until there are no more bargains there. "Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain." Seth Klarman,
    • ME
      Michael E.
      25 November 2019 @ 11:39
      1 1
      Were you born in Iran??? Did you live there. I met a lots of great Chinese people in USA, that does not mean CCP is good & China is a great place to invest.???? Please, go & live there for 6 months & then will talk facts..........
  • ME
    Michael E.
    20 November 2019 @ 17:01
    1 2
    You can replace $$$ but not human life. Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Days of protests over rising fuel prices and a subsequent government crackdown have killed at least 106 people across Iran, Amnesty International said Tuesday, adding that the real figure may be much higher. Iran's government has not released a toll of those arrested, injured or killed in the protests that began Friday and spread quickly across at least 100 cities and towns, but it disputed Amnesty's report through its mission to the United Nations, calling it "baseless allegations and fabricated figures."
  • BK
    Boris K.
    19 November 2019 @ 18:56
    3 0
    I get that there will always be managers trying to find the next gold mine but this sounds like a massive head ache with huge risks. Along with that I looked up your company's website and am not real clear, did you guys build it in a hurry. There is very little substance
  • JJ
    Jesse J.
    19 November 2019 @ 00:22
    3 0
    No thanks, appreciate the info but I'm not that starved for yield.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    18 November 2019 @ 23:43
    3 1
    Interesting thesis - appreciate this new idea. Even ignoring sanctions, the Middle Eastern geopolitical picture is still up the air...you've got Saudi Arabia and Israel looking cement their place and both view Iran as a threat....
  • SS
    Steve S.
    18 November 2019 @ 22:30
    20 3
    I won't put a single cent into Iran. Investing is not just about making money but ethics/morals, just look at what the Government is doing there to protestors and shutting off the internet. Missing the Iran 'opportunity' is not worth my conscience.
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      20 November 2019 @ 00:53
      8 1
      Then why will you invest in Saudi Arabia? Women are oppressed. The monarchy is corrupt. Recently they murdered an American reporter, dissolved his body in acid. This extreme Wahabi form of Islam is a product and export of Saudi Arabia. I am not trying to legitimize the Iranian regime but (perhaps you) and the American public seem to take the party line that Iran is evil but the Saudi’s are OK. I do find this a bit strange.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      20 November 2019 @ 13:20
      5 1
      @Aymman. I'm not invested in Saudi Arabia too for the same reasons. Same goes for China.
  • JJ
    James J.
    18 November 2019 @ 20:57
    5 0
    Things changed a lot since you made this video.
  • BG
    Bernd G.
    18 November 2019 @ 20:46
    1 0
    isnt there civil unrest?
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    18 November 2019 @ 20:45
    14 9
    Assume you are an american investor in 1938 - you have the opportunity to invest in the German Stock market in that era run by the NAZI regime. With the benefit of hind sight does that look like a good idea? I don't think so!! Investing in Iran today is EXACTLY the same as investing in a country that wants to dominate the world and destroy Israel and all of Western Culture. Shame on anyone who use their talents and money in this manner. I am all in if they were a peaceful democratic government. VERY sad for the beautiful Persian people.
    • DK
      Daniel K.
      19 November 2019 @ 15:49
      5 4
      Israel has committed terrorism all over the world, including against Americans. Iran has never done anything to the US. As an American, I love the Iranian people. I would severe ties with Israel immediately.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:53
      3 0
      All governments are wankers Hahns. Most of all the Israeli government, who have taken up the mantle of those who repressor.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      19 November 2019 @ 19:54
      0 0
      mantle of the repressor
  • NN
    Naresh N.
    18 November 2019 @ 19:11
    13 0
    Emerging Markets are not safe for capital. I've invested in Mongolia, Iraq and am from India. Lost money. D-O-N-T. Buy the country ETF on the global markets, if available. I'm trying to get my funds unblocked from the Mongolian banks who are refusing to KYC me from overseas. They want me to come in person, even though they opened the account remotely. Irrationality, extremism and magical thinking pervade these societies which includes the stakeholders you invest with!
    • MW
      Maciej W. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 20:30
      6 0
      I agree that without having a full-time team on the ground it would be more difficult. I am sure that ETFs will be available at some point but the risk/reward will be different then.
    • JE
      James E.
      18 November 2019 @ 22:37
      2 0
      could not agree more- rule of law -Just look at a chart of TRQ Mongolian mine that RIO owns 50% of but the government keeps changing rules after they put in more than 5 Billion to build it.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    18 November 2019 @ 14:07
    5 3
    Very interesting, thank you!
  • HC
    Howard C.
    18 November 2019 @ 13:49
    14 1
    Thank you Mr. Wojtal. This is the type of introduction/overview many RV viewers are interested in. It must have been an adventure in 2016 finding a bank and broker that would take you. When the developed markets enter the unavoidable long winter then the neglected EM or frontier markets will enjoy a wider following. Let's hope the sanctions end soon so that the markets and leisure tourism can boom in Iran.
    • MW
      Maciej W. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 20:25
      2 0
      Thank you Howard. It has been a fascinating journey indeed.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      18 November 2019 @ 21:22
      5 0
      Iran is beautiful I could just imagine! All Iranians I met are beautiful people.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    18 November 2019 @ 12:31
    11 19
    You invest in dictatorship countries, long term you lose $$$. The whole system is rigged against foreigners. How many Americans made $$$$ in Russia and long term was able to convert to USD??? Iran is mafia system, initially they allow you make rial and you are happy, you made money. Last 40 years Iranian money depreciated from 7 to $1 to 14,000 to $1. ON TOP OF THAT IF YOU ARE TOO SUCCESSFUL, THEY CALL YOU SPY AND CONFISCATE YOUR MONEY & JAIL. LYING & CHEATING IS BAKED IN THEIR LEADERS DNA.
    • AP
      A P.
      18 November 2019 @ 16:35
      18 5
      Type in Google Marc Rich for a starter. Educate yourself. Also cultivate humility. Basically start from scratch.
    • MW
      Maciej W. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 20:22
      10 2
      We think there are many misconceptions around Iran and prefer to look at the bottom-up data to get a more accurate picture.  On $ returns : equities gained +9.7% p.a. in $ over the last 12 years, i.e. during the period that included 2 Iranian Rial devaluations of 70%+, UN and US sanctions and the financial crisis that slammed frontier markets.
    • ME
      Michael E.
      19 November 2019 @ 22:45
      1 1
      Were you born in Iran???, if you were not how would know anything about it??? Sitting in London, doing remote control investing will not make you $$$$. These mafia governments will suck you in, because they know the western businessman greedy, then they cheat you. Ask the Americans who invested in Russia. Bribery is everywhere. Don’t sit in London, go there & see how they kill their own people. They treat their people like slave & you want to enable them to stay in power & kill more?????
    • ME
      Michael E.
      20 November 2019 @ 17:01
      0 1
      Shame on those who don’t care about human lives. Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Days of protests over rising fuel prices and a subsequent government crackdown have killed at least 106 people across Iran, Amnesty International said Tuesday, adding that the real figure may be much higher. Iran's government has not released a toll of those arrested, injured or killed in the protests that began Friday and spread quickly across at least 100 cities and towns, but it disputed Amnesty's report through its mission to the United Nations, calling it "baseless allegations and fabricated figures."
  • KM
    Karel M.
    18 November 2019 @ 11:59
    1 1
    The only European asset manager focused on investing in Irania equities? We have seen several videos in recent years about investing in Iran through Sturgeon Capital Iran Fund. Have they stopped?! Anyway. Curious about this video!
    • HV
      Helmuth V.
      18 November 2019 @ 14:11
      0 0
      According to Sturgeon Capital website they only offer a Central Asia Fund which invests in the region along the Silk Road.
    • ME
      Michael E.
      18 November 2019 @ 22:45
      0 0
      I was part of that group. Thanks God, did not invest.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    18 November 2019 @ 11:21
    9 0
    Good luck with getting your money out !
    • JE
      James E.
      18 November 2019 @ 22:38
      1 0
      amen
  • RT
    Rune T.
    18 November 2019 @ 09:42
    3 1
    Interesting, but unlikely to be opened up until US votes in a democrat - so maybe sometime after 2024... still if the dividend yield on average outperforms the inflation by a meaningful amount, one could have a small idle position sitting in Iran - just don't be too exposed to US at the same time in case they decided to ban people who trade in sanctioned markets from US markets... it would not take them more than a few seconds to implement that.

Chapters

  1. 00:01:20
    Why Iran?
  2. 00:02:21
    Sanctions on Iran
  3. 00:04:08
    Understanding Opportunity in Iran
  4. 00:04:42
    Why now?
  5. 00:07:51
    What is the bigger risk--inflation or corruption?
  6. 00:09:48
    What are the biggest sectors?
  7. 00:13:17
    Drilling Down on the Financial Sector
  8. 00:16:27
    Sanction Risks to the Consumer Sector
  9. 00:18:52
    How will sanctions evolve?
  10. 00:19:47
    How do foreign investors invest in Iran?
  11. 00:20:45
    What about bonds?
  12. 00:21:41
    How vulnerable is Iran to global stress?
  13. 00:23:59
    What if oil prices collapse?
  14. 00:24:34
    Summarizing the Iranian Opportunity