This Market is Moving Higher

Featuring Joe Fahmy

Joe Fahmy of Zor Capital, draws parallels between the price action of the equity markets, Brexit, and the upcoming US election, developing a bold case for a move higher in US equities that bears aren’t seeing.

Published on
18 October, 2016
Topic
Investment Framework, Trading, Technology
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
68

Comments

  • AG

    Amir G.

    29 11 2017 04:48

    3       0

    Please bring this guy back! I'm looking back and almost every single one his predictions came true (and he predicted lots of things). Please bring him back!

  • DT

    Dave T.

    3 7 2017 08:48

    1       0

    Just spotted this. Great views and great advice. Bring him back!

  • PK

    Prafulla K.

    29 6 2017 21:36

    1       0

    Can you guys bring him back!? Great piece!'

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    28 2 2017 12:38

    1       0

    Good to hear from a bull for once. A lot of what he says hold true.

  • RO

    Robert O.

    25 11 2016 04:40

    0       0

    If hedge funds have been seeing a net outflow of funds and hedge funds own the FANGs then one of the factors that could change his bullish outlook may have already arrived. He also stated multiple times that he is not a global macro strategist but not being aware of a potential risk does not make the risk go away.

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    23 11 2016 12:09

    0       0

    If anything the last 5 minutes were golden! The psychology and mental toughness aspects so important than making the right calls or wrong call whilst remaining objective

  • CA

    Craig A.

    13 11 2016 16:17

    0       0

    Great Interview. Actually provides many tips and tools to become a better trader.

  • BC

    Burton C.

    27 10 2016 05:50

    1       1

    My bias is bearish, however the charts clearly shows 4 waves up in this bull market since 2009. Wave 5 would be the final wave and it would be a blow off top, I think he is right.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    25 10 2016 17:03

    0       0

    Earnings are still generally beating expectations. And today's prices are based on expectations regarding 6-12 months out. Just scroll through the various dates on http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx
    Or if someone knows a site with the data more visually presented?

  • EK

    Emil K.

    24 10 2016 16:16

    3       0

    A Twitter poll is one of the pieces of evidence for a Trump victory? Come on!

  • EK

    Emil K.

    24 10 2016 16:03

    3       0

    Would it be fair to say that $13 to $15 trillion dollars of bonds are at 5,000 year highs (i.e. negative interest rates)? Would it be within reason to consider the possibility that the vainglorious construction in China over the last eight years (longer?) has not been seen since the time of the pharaohs? And Europe? It seems that forces are unstitching the ties that have been binding those nations for the last 70 years? The interviewee seems to me at least to be dismissing the bearishness as the run-of-the-mill bearishness, normal cyclical bull/bear market behavior. But are these normal times? Shouldn't we be disturbed by where the economic, political and monetary paths are leading us?

  • CP

    Caroline P.

    24 10 2016 03:40

    2       0

    I like the way he's thinking and his approach of trading.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    23 10 2016 15:28

    0       0

    How funny. Got more Dislikes than most i/vs. Not bearish.

  • de

    dale e.

    23 10 2016 04:01

    2       0

    This guy is good, bring him back again.

  • CS

    Chris S.

    22 10 2016 19:31

    3       0

    Brilliant! I'm not a bull currently. But this adds a new perspective to my view. Very reasonable and logical, hard to argue against. Thanks!

  • GE

    GABI E.

    21 10 2016 13:08

    0       0

    good interview!! I agree that Large Institutional , Buy Backs and CB support the markerts . For now the sentiment is still positive ( long Stocks ). th'x!!

  • BH

    Ben H.

    21 10 2016 06:06

    3       1

    Great video, so many nuggets relating to market sentiment and the mental aspect of trading..
    Also tend to agree with him that people are too scared from past bad experience's and hence not participating in this market, i would be more worried if everyone was raving about the markets and trading.
    im not saying we wont get a correction in the near future but there is a big difference in that and a bear market.
    will watch again for sure..
    PS i also think Trump will win - unless he commits suicide by shooting himself in the back of the head twice..

  • CG

    Chase G.

    21 10 2016 05:48

    2       0

    I don't think bearish retail investors are keeping down this market... I think CBs, leveraged corporate buybacks, and desperate pension funds are. Maybe also the new bubble mentality of not timing markets and buying etfs.

  • AV

    Alex V.

    20 10 2016 20:30

    0       0

    Worth a listen. This is the guy making money with a different perspective than mine. He doesn't care if the market is corrupted. How do I make money, now? Does he see the signs before reality arroves

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    20 10 2016 17:02

    4       2

    I agree with 4 of 5 points on the bull market continuing. He's clear, concise and logical. A lot better than the general bear arguments of "the FED doesn't know what they are doing", "this bull market is too old", "the P/E is higher than historical average", "the world is ending", and so forth...

  • AN

    Amanda N.

    20 10 2016 12:05

    3       0

    "Market is Mike Tyson who punch you in the face when you least expect it " Hahahahaha...i love
    this ..he gives very good advice in being mentally strong...its very true.

  • JS

    Jon S.

    20 10 2016 00:53

    5       3

    Why the hate for Hillary? She's a sweet, ethical, grandma. I love her. HaHa

  • J

    John .

    20 10 2016 00:01

    6       0

    Key to Joe's bigger term view is staying close to the exit door. Said another way, it's sometimes better to leave the dance once song too early, than one song too late. Measuring the size of the exit door in a crowded theater helps minimize the pain of "face punches". Not sure I heard that analysis here...

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    19 10 2016 20:39

    1       0

    Who knows hopes of a fiscal stimulus takes it to unsustainable levels- reinforced by extreme optimism on recovery

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    19 10 2016 20:35

    2       0

    I agree contrarian call has been slow grind higher. Basic definition of a bubble is 'when inside it , everybody believes in it'. And if everybody is calling bubble blowing off how can that be ?

  • GH

    Gary H.

    19 10 2016 17:17

    2       1

    Enjoyed the perspective. Thought is was good

  • NH

    Nigel H.

    19 10 2016 16:35

    3       4

    Excellent - trend follower mentality. More of these guys please. Would have loved to hear about his risk management.

  • JD

    John D.

    19 10 2016 16:29

    1       2

    Great piece.

  • VB

    Vincent B.

    19 10 2016 10:52

    1       0

    Love it

  • JS

    Joe S.

    19 10 2016 08:19

    8       1

    Hell yes, the market is massively overvalued. The Tobin q ration is about the same level of 1929.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/10/03/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-september-update

    For me, that is a good time to put out before the storm hits. No way in hell this guy can pullout and reduce exposure when it falls out on time.

  • JS

    Joe S.

    19 10 2016 08:12

    5       7

    To be frank, I joined real vision to get the red pill truth about the financial world. With db, Cs, RBS and other banks failing, the industrial production index dropping like a rock from 2015, a massive debt bubble that has no easy solution, to save this is stupid.

    No wonder the hedge fund industry is in decline, these people just have no understanding of the business cycle.

    Sounds like dumb@ss from msnbc

  • FM

    Fraser M.

    19 10 2016 02:55

    2       0

    Excellent interview - eloquent and pithy!

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    19 10 2016 01:21

    12       0

    1. This was filmed in September before Billy Bush scandal so wonder if his Trump call still stands

    2. It'd be nice to see Real Vision post fund returns for every guest even if it was only 1 figure like CAGR over past 10 years.

  • WJ

    Wells J.

    18 10 2016 23:40

    4       2

    Why not add a neutral button.
    Sometimes it is in between like and dislike

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    18 10 2016 23:26

    10       2

    I don't know what bubble vision he is watching - but I don't see doom and gloom on CNBC, I have never seen such cheerleaders for the crowded FANG trades he is talking about - one day PE's will matter, one day everyone will realize the FED can never raise rates , one day the algos will sell off without thinking, one day we will have a 1987 style crash. REALITY MATTERS - YOU CAN'T TAPER A PONZI SCHEME - an avalanche happens all at once and there is no getting out it's way. However, I do agree with him that Donald Trump will be our next president. Hillary is just to detested.

  • GJ

    Geno J.

    18 10 2016 22:05

    5       2

    I was a little confused until he said he looks mainly at the Nasdaq. I agree you can make a technical case for his thesis but the S&P and DJI do not confirm a bull market continuation. If you apply Elliot waves there is an alternate count that shows a correction consistent with Fibonnaci and then completing a wave 5 in the year 2020, and the bear market beginning at that time. I am not a professional though and would love to hear what Dave at Aspen Trading is thinking.

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    18 10 2016 20:02

    2       3

    Joe's jokes on twitter are the best. His trading is next. And his political views worst!

  • GM

    Gregor M.

    18 10 2016 19:58

    2       4

    Always enjoy Joe's presentations. Like him, I believe we should always spend more time forecasting future events, rather than wishing for them. Accordingly, in the modern polling era, tight races are still hard to forecast but this era is very good at forecasting a large spread. So, it's pretty obvious to me that Trump will lose the election, and I read the markets as pricing in a GOP loss by pretty substantial margins. Again, that's a forecast, not a wishcast. All best, G

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    18 10 2016 19:23

    1       0

    I love it!

  • LW

    Lukasz W.

    18 10 2016 19:04

    2       1

    The polls methodology tells a lot. I don't buy it.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    18 10 2016 18:11

    6       0

    Drinking his own mental koolaid!

  • PU

    Peter U.

    18 10 2016 18:03

    9       1

    Icahn is net short in his portfolio

  • PU

    Peter U.

    18 10 2016 18:02

    18       3

    No disrespect to the speaker, but he spews the same bullish bromides that all growth biased equity guys ALWAYS DO!

  • GA

    Giedrius A.

    18 10 2016 18:00

    2       1

    Great interview, make you say hmm!!!

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    18 10 2016 17:59

    5       0

    The truth is, the doom & gloom scenario that has been preached by so many has not been translated yet into Q3 earnings, and even though still early days, there has been very good examples of very decent returns at top (or exceeding) market expectations.

  • CK

    Chris K.

    18 10 2016 16:48

    0       5

    This guy looks to close to his trading station

  • AH

    Andrew H.

    18 10 2016 16:22

    23       2

    I really dislike his arguement of 'mkt is a discounting mechanism'. Last two years(three), GDP and earnings missed expectations by a country mile. Can't tell me a market that has risen over that period discounted anything. Only thing being discounted is a perpetual fed put. Were gonna need moar stimulus....

  • AG

    Alex G.

    18 10 2016 16:11

    9       0

    I want to see Grant interview this guy to

  • AG

    Alex G.

    18 10 2016 16:10

    6       0

    This guy defiantly owns a Make a America Great Again hat haha. But he really did a good job explaining how people hate this Bull Market.

  • EF

    E F.

    18 10 2016 14:19

    2       0

    so much truth to the mental toughness aspect, no shame in swallowing pride and standing aside when sth isn't right

  • O_

    Oscar _.

    18 10 2016 13:36

    6       15

    I was with him up until he said the market is antipating a Trump win. I see the complete opposite. Watch a bit of bloomberg?!

  • GB

    Grant B.

    18 10 2016 12:40

    6       0

    Refreshing.

  • WE

    William E.

    18 10 2016 12:20

    14       0

    I too enjoyed Joe's perspective nd agree that "all" of his points are valid and argue for a slow grind upward until the next bear market. He outlines the perfect reasons why you should never be completely out of the market. But as one of the Boomers (also advisor) who had his portfolio hit hard in the last correction (and did NOT bale) and therefore fully recovered, my time horizon has changed dramatically over the past 8 years and personal risk-off since mid 2015 has served me well (currently about 40% cash). Yes, like all investors my specific circumstances drive my decisions but "Investment Horizon & Mean Reversion" are bedrock concepts no one should forget....and most Boomers time horizon looks like mine. Therefore, the return vs risk trade is definitely tilted to the risk-off side of the equation; I will wait for the next down 20% or more to get fully invested.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    18 10 2016 11:36

    42       0

    First let me say, I really enjoyed this video. With that said, I really hate it when people use a straw man argument. The bear case isn't exclusively tied to US corporate earnings. Much like an EM investor in 2008, who thought India's economy looked great still got creamed when the US housing bubble burst. The main drivers of US earnings over the next few years will most likely not be the US economy but foreign economic and political shocks. China, Europe, Japan, and even the members of OPEC are all on the brink in some form or another. Moving onto sentiment, and he really does make a good argument, because I agree that sentiment is incredibly negative especially when you realize that we are at all time highs across pretty much all asset classes. I would suggest the bearish sentiment is the result of much larger longer lasting forces than he anticipates. I urge him to watch Richard Koo's video where he discusses the affect an economic depression has on investor and business psychology. Joe Fahmy notices the popularity of Trump but fails to connect that dot with other evidence which supports the theory that the US and a lot of the other developed western economies are either in or on the way to an economic depression. Once again, I really enjoyed this video and Joe Fahmy's opinions.