Victor Sperandeo – Think Piece

Published on
July 26th, 2016
Topic
Derivatives, Monetary policy, Trading
Duration
31 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit

Victor Sperandeo – Think Piece

Featuring Victor Sperandeo

Published on: July 26th, 2016 • Duration: 31 minutes • Asset Class: Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Derivatives, Monetary policy, Trading

Victor Sperandeo discusses the asymmetries in the global economy's productivity and exposure, explaining why the US measure of GDP does not reflect real growth, and obscures much more worrying data.

Comments

  • my
    markettaker y.
    26 July 2018 @ 22:19
    We need more of this guy. Brilliant stuff.
  • KH
    Kevin H.
    17 August 2016 @ 07:02
    Wish this was a lengthier masterclass session instead of a thinkpiece
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    14 August 2016 @ 14:48
    Nominate this for Top Interview for 2016! Brilliant!
  • MA
    Melanie A.
    10 August 2016 @ 00:01
    Fantastic! Thanks RV and Trader Vic. Would love to hear from a few more honorable men (if you can find any) and learn more about how they see the world now versus historically and whether/how metrics are still relevant (see Bert's comments below). Thumbs up on cash and gold.
  • DG
    Dana G.
    4 August 2016 @ 19:57
    Gross Federal Debt should be looked at in terms of taxed income to the Fed Government not GDP. It's like asseting individual debt off of total assets instead of family income. The current deficit of 500 B looks small against GDP where as if look at as a percentage of taxed income minus social security (because SS is basically a wash against outflows, is more like 500 B against 2.5 trillion. Much scarier.
  • JV
    Jens V.
    4 August 2016 @ 10:43
    Brilliant. Interesting insights on socialism and fascism - I think the importance of this is often being ignored because people are busy criticizing the central banks. Living in Scandinavia I'm knee deep in socialism, and the effect is economic paralysis and stagnation. I wonder how far we have to go down that road before people realize that free markets is the only way to get healthy long-term growth.
  • BD
    Bert D.
    3 August 2016 @ 05:15
    Also, here's on a side note to his comments about the EPA and socialism based on my experience working in a factory. The older generation (his age) have health problems from chemical exposure and the company is currently cleaning up rivers that were dumped in. My employers international suppliers (they don't have similar oversight & are cheap) still have the same dirty factories, same human exposure to chemicals and are heavy polluters. I think we should consider not all federal policies are negative if you believe some things are more important than the bottom line.
  • BD
    Bert D.
    3 August 2016 @ 05:05
    I think he speaks of a bygone era of thought, stuck in an industrial economy that needs to produce to survive. I think that era has ended and replaced with something different. GDP, factories, output, these are all outdated metrics. But that's just my 2 cents as someone much younger.
  • JC
    John C.
    2 August 2016 @ 06:59
    great video! Lots to learn from Trader Vic.
  • AV
    Alvern V.
    2 August 2016 @ 01:06
    Classic Doug Casey, Austrian Economics . Risk is in the system. It's All about the timing.
  • CD
    Charles D.
    1 August 2016 @ 01:46
    How much clearer could he be....cash and gold.
  • ml
    michael l.
    31 July 2016 @ 20:36
    Great interview. Let's have him back. Excellent real-life lessons delivered with humor and humility. Also agree re Paulson - he hated Fuld. Paulson's brother also worked in Lehman's Chicago office as a bond guy (nice guy, btw), so Hank may have also been a little reluctant to be seen as helping his brother's firm in any way...thought that probably factored in just a smidge. Let's also remember that Lehman was SEC-regulated, so there would have been a federal basis for the Fed to intervene, if they were so inclined...unlike AIG which, someone can correct me, but I believe that only their insurance subs were regulated and then at the state levels.
  • NR
    Nuno R.
    31 July 2016 @ 17:45
    Another brilliant interview, thanks RV.
  • GK
    Gary K.
    31 July 2016 @ 01:45
    Very informative and enjoyable to listen to given the many years of experience. I agree with the point made of being able to listen to him for hours...excellent selection RV!
  • CC
    Charnes C.
    30 July 2016 @ 22:51
    Straight and insightful. Slap your face with truth and realism.
  • WM
    Will M.
    30 July 2016 @ 15:05
    One final thought.... I have heard the following advice from folks on RVT and other good history buff outside RVT: 1. If the $ and Bonds are going down together look out!! (per Vic its signaling a loss of confidence in the US and the system) 2. If the $ and gold are going up together look out!! (its signaling a flood of money to the US or a liquidation of $ debt plus a loss of confidence in the system. My money will be on 2. happening first......followed by 1. once the recognition hits that the "system" must be reset and global default is upon us.
  • WM
    Will M.
    30 July 2016 @ 15:00
    Very interesting perspectives and history. Vic probably didn't tell anyone anything new regarding GDP manipulation to the majority of RVT subscribers, but his points on "printing the interest" on the national debt and bail ins on bankrupt banks was critically important. The majority of folks in most countries don't think about bank weakness until its upon them, then its too late. Get out of weak banks now, and spread deposits around several banks!! The new thing he brought to my attention is that the $250 deposit insurance limit is all very well now, but in the next crises the FDIC nor the Fed will likely manage to cover that. Maybe 100k should be the max per bank if you want to be conservative?
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    29 July 2016 @ 17:56
    Trader Vic is the Man!!!
  • DJ
    David J.
    29 July 2016 @ 15:43
    Totally agree with the comments above....please bring us more of Trader Vic!
  • BS
    Brian S.
    29 July 2016 @ 04:01
    Hope Vic becomes a regular. I'm reading his book Crashmaker which provides many of his insights into current affairs in a "fictional" format. Thanks RV.
  • GW
    Grant W. | Founder
    28 July 2016 @ 15:04
    @Sebastien D @Robert W Sorry for the tech issues. We are aware of the problem - it is with the video hosting platform and our guys are working hard to get it resolved asap... bear with us! Grant
  • RW
    Robert W.
    28 July 2016 @ 06:43
    @Sebastien D. I feel your pain. I am an original subscriber. No problems until lately. I have high speed bandwidth (recently upgraded to even slightly faster) but have had problems lately viewing with lag/breakup etc. I had other issues so I returned my router/modem and asked for a new one. I had the router disabled and used my own very high quality router. All issues disappeared except the realvision lag/breakup. I watched this video in a smaller window and was able to get though it without an problem... I also looked at running services and disabled Windows Update and SuperFetch... and so that and running in a small window seemed to work. This is only a part time fix until the main problem can be resolved. And for the record I love this service... of all the services I pay for it would likely be the LAST one I would unsubscribe from.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    28 July 2016 @ 04:13
    Would love to hear far more on his gems for trading options. Could listen to him for hours on this stuff. Interview way too short.
  • DH
    Dale H.
    27 July 2016 @ 23:47
    Loved it! Great sharing gems from all those years of experience. Don't over trade - very true. I wish everyone knew about depositor bail ins. Just to be able to contemplate what that means politically...Grrr. Even in NZ, after the G20 Nov 2014, we had bail in provisions put in place and stated on the RBNZ web site, but people in general don't know or believe it. The big four Aussie banks here may or may not be 100% solid...... In the past however, the BNZ has been bailed out.... As well, the bail in provisions state that depositor money gets frozen as a first step. Anger making stuff. Good hearing this mentioned by a seasoned trader and also views about holding some gold. The majority I speak to look blank and think ideas like this are strange...... But NZ has not been immune in the past. So I feel reassured I haven't lost my marbles at this point and I am in good company here. Nice, RV :)
  • DD
    Don D.
    27 July 2016 @ 21:45
    educational - primary activity today is options, like his style.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    27 July 2016 @ 21:14
    Hey Vic---does the "bail in" Dodd Frank rules also include brokerage accounts like Schwab? Can they take the capital out of these types of accounts as well? Give us some guidance to short the markets via options long term so we can profit from the move down.
  • SD
    Sebastien D.
    27 July 2016 @ 20:39
    Please make a reliable player with some buffer, resume capabilities and an option for low bandwidth/quality. Have been facing so much trouble lately...
  • TL
    T L.
    27 July 2016 @ 18:39
    excellent last chapter, the trader vs investor disctinction related to official numbers
  • JF
    Jonathan F.
    27 July 2016 @ 17:32
    It looks like FDIC has $75B on its balance sheet: https://www.fdic.gov/about/strategic/corporate/cfo_report_1stqtr_16/balance.html Still low.
  • KI
    Ken I.
    27 July 2016 @ 17:13
    I find it interesting that he can be a follower of Ayn Rand and an advocate of free markets, and then blame the government for not bailing out Lehman.
    • jh
      john h.
      7 April 2017 @ 18:32
      Exactly. Plus he says it with a straight face. What's with these Ayn Rand types? They all hate the government until the market crashes. I guess there aren't any John Galts in the foxhole.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      26 July 2018 @ 23:12
      oh that is not fair, from either of you. If you listened carefully you would note that he said HE WOULD HAVE PREFERRED that they were all left to hang out to try. But his point was that IF THEY'RE GOING TO DO BAILOUTS, then it shouldn't be selective. He made that clear several times.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    27 July 2016 @ 14:33
    I agree that is exactly why Hank Paulson let Lehman fail, and then to pay Goldman Sachs 100% out - C'mon and of course we know who Paulson worked for before he went to Washington hmm??? Goldman Sachs - our system is so corrupt we are essentially a banana republic - very scary.
  • pm
    preston m.
    27 July 2016 @ 06:53
    I'd like to see a "Stories with Vic" series. I bet he's got some good ones.
  • AG
    Alex G.
    27 July 2016 @ 06:50
    snap back to reality oh there goes gravity- aka there is to much debt & gov and that's ultimately bad news real vision has me a bit scared again
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    27 July 2016 @ 06:45
    Superb! Most people don't know that their money at banks is not really insured and subject to bail in. This man is the real deal. More, more, more please. Thank you!
  • CW
    Chad W.
    27 July 2016 @ 04:52
    Love this guy, a real character, he's like someone out of the movies.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    27 July 2016 @ 04:11
    Fascinating. And clear tips.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    27 July 2016 @ 04:11
    Fascinating. And clear tips.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    27 July 2016 @ 02:53
    Taleb might call him Fat Tony
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    27 July 2016 @ 01:24
    I read about Trader Vic many years ago in Market Wizards.......if he is only comfortable in cash and gold, which he started buying in 1992, no wonder why he is never on CNBC! Bring him back for more! Milton needs to pick his brain much longer.....what a treat, thank you.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    26 July 2016 @ 22:43
    PURE GOLD!! Thanks RV - adding in story tellers who impart valuable knowledge along with telling it the way it is, adds a great dimension to the site. Those 'rules of thumb' are gems.
  • jm
    john m.
    26 July 2016 @ 21:19
    Good
  • RA
    Robert A.
    26 July 2016 @ 16:48
    Lions, Tigers and Bears Oh My! FDIC only for 50-100k and bail in paper for equity thereafter?-----after marching everyone out on the 250k gangplank? Now THAT is Dark!
  • fc
    frank c.
    26 July 2016 @ 16:15
    The real deal!!
  • SM
    Sam M.
    26 July 2016 @ 15:25
    So many gems, that was awesome. Enjoyed the subtle Trump jab.
  • ct
    constantine t.
    26 July 2016 @ 15:17
    legend! thank you RV for the interview.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    26 July 2016 @ 14:07
    I am a huge fan of Trader Vic! Thank you - this is a super treat! He is a legend, a master trader & a master statistician. The fed should've taken Trader Vic's analysis into account. Like Kyle Bass said these guys make big money because they have a conviction and make big bets. Thank you Trader Vic for the golden nuggets of not over trading, trading with the news and having the ability to cut losses short (this rule is paramount for traders).