Beware the Bond Bear

Published on
September 24th, 2018
Duration
7 minutes

Beware the Bond Bear

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Louise Yamada

Published on: September 24th, 2018 • Duration: 7 minutes

Is the bond bull market over? Louise Yamada, managing director of LY Advisors, joins Real Vision for the first time to answer this very question. She uses technical analysis to forecast the future path of U.S. Treasury yields and explains what it means for investors, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on September 20, 2018.

Comments

  • PC
    Peter C.
    25 April 2019 @ 20:11
    Rewatching this 7 month later. TNX now at 25.34. Feeling like in the dreams.
  • TD
    Thomas D.
    3 October 2018 @ 00:52
    1880-1950 rate cycle may help in terms of what to expect before rates can break meaningfully higher. Commodity inflation? By all means bring it. See 1940s year over year inflation and impact on long term rates. Neglible. Why? Central bank policy on the short end and war bond support....Today’s equivalent? Take your pick between broke states, under funded pensions, federal (non-productive) deficits, and a private sector that has enough malinvestment to matter since the above would require it to be the racehorse in order to solve the problem. Go short long bonds? Maybe once the U.S. loses reserve status and foreign ownership of total debt moves meaningfully higher first. All without a mention of demographics which in the near term put continued deflationary pressure into the developed makets system...
  • DR
    David R.
    1 October 2018 @ 14:56
    This would fit with the coming dollar crash, like in the 1970's stagflation era during which both US bonds and the US dollar were crushed. Looks close on the horizon again.
  • DR
    David R.
    30 September 2018 @ 23:39
    Great to see Louise for a second time. Agree with comments that we need more. Maybe in Think Tank? A paper/chartbook there or 30 mins with her would be worth more than 30 hours with many others.
  • MN
    Michael N.
    29 September 2018 @ 13:16
    Do we think the RV subscription base needs anyone to let them know that if they are looking for a 2% return on their investment that a short term bond is where you can find it... That's what this "thesis" was right? Was it more then that? Did I miss something?
    • DR
      David R.
      30 September 2018 @ 23:35
      Indeed you missed something. The ENTIRE point. This was NOT, as you state, about where to find a 2% ROI (rolling eyes).
    • LL
      Louis L. | Contributor
      18 October 2018 @ 10:23
      Interest rates are the biggest volatility lever in financial markets. This is significant with many implications.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    25 September 2018 @ 08:23
    Surely the 35 year fall in interest rates was triggered by the world coming off the gold standard? For the world to now move to long term cycle of rising interest rates would require some form of paradigm shift, like a new Bretton Woods type system (arising by consensus or through some crisis)? Absent that, surely this current tightening cycle is likely to be temporary, to be abandoned at the first sign of any economic weakness? A longer interview with Louise might have explored this question?
    • my
      markettaker y.
      26 September 2018 @ 23:46
      Milton. Can you make this happen please??
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    24 September 2018 @ 19:49
    I agree with the comments that ask to see something longer with Louise BUT - this piece was nothing more than stating the obvious - but then - I'm an old fogey and remember the long bond at 15% and my 5 over prime construction loan.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 September 2018 @ 21:10
      It is always nice to have the obvious confirmed by a long-term expert. DLS
  • F
    Floyd .
    24 September 2018 @ 18:01
    I have followed Louise for decades,she is excellent in identifying major trend changes and her historical analysis and perspective keeps one from falling into the trap of saying its different this time. I strongly agree a full length interview covering major markets/asset classes would be great!
    • DS
      David S.
      24 September 2018 @ 23:04
      I agree as well. A full length interview with Louise covering equities, gold, emerging markets, and interest rates, etc. would be great!
    • TE
      Tito E.
      25 September 2018 @ 11:37
      +1 on that !
  • KM
    Kevin M.
    24 September 2018 @ 16:24
    I'm pretty sure this exact same interview could have been filmed in late 2007 with the same broken falling trend line. We saw that presage a period of new long term lows in rates. Would love to see Louise debate this with Lacy Hunt.
  • VC
    Vince C.
    24 September 2018 @ 13:23
    As James mentioned, would really enjoy a full interview. When she speaks, you listen.
  • JV
    James V.
    24 September 2018 @ 11:41
    Great to see Louise Yamada on Real Vision. She is the doyenne of technical analysis. Please get her back for a full length interview!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      24 September 2018 @ 23:56
      Just to state the obvious - another vote / request that you get this lady on for a full interview. And by that I mean an hour ( ), not just a 30 min one.