Currency Plays Amid Trade Tensions

Published on
August 31st, 2018
Topic
US Dollar, FX, Trading, China, Emerging markets
Duration
9 minutes
Asset class
Currencies

Currency Plays Amid Trade Tensions

Trade Ideas ·
Featuring Jens Nordvig

Published on: August 31st, 2018 • Duration: 9 minutes • Asset Class: Currencies • Topic: US Dollar, FX, Trading, China, Emerging markets

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data, explains why he sees the Mexican peso remaining stable against the dollar and outperforming other emerging market currencies in the next couple months. In this interview with Justine Underhill, he also highlights the troubles that lay ahead for Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan. Filmed on August 30, 2018.

Comments

  • BC
    Brente C.
    5 September 2018 @ 07:46
    I find deep analysis of markets, economics, and politics as provided by Jens significantly more useful than having a specific entry and stop loss for a trade. Every investor will vary in their real application of risk management.
  • MF
    M F.
    4 September 2018 @ 13:10
    I would reiterate Michael N's comment below: namely, while this was a good discussion, I liked the ideas presented and the speaker (to be clear, I gave a thumbs up)...however, this message is to Real Vision: for "Trade Ideas", it should be trades for traders..namely, stick to the format of the following criteria: entry price, target price, stop loss, catalysts, time frame, and risks to the thesis. Even as a relative trade in this case "long peso and short asian currencies"...well at what relative valuation ratios, and which asian currencies (it was plural, so which currencies other than Chinese currency)....if its under the "Trade Category" it should be specific and actionable...thanks..
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    3 September 2018 @ 19:59
    Great questions and great analysis. Thank you. Enjoyed the insight and analysis.
  • DR
    David R.
    31 August 2018 @ 20:18
    There was a current chart recently published in the RV Think Tank part that listed in order the performance of EM currencies in the last 6 months (during this brief dollar rally, which appears to have ended mid-Aug) and MXN was not among the top in that space. So maybe some others would be better choices. And probably look back at least to at least the end of 2016 guage market performance/behavior during ups & downs, as most EM FX are actually still higher today (some by 20-30%) than at the end of 2016. Don't cherry-pick your time periods and get sucked into the false dollar-bull narrative - definitely need technical charts & tech analysis to do a trade or you'll lose money every time imo! By the way, Canada just walked away from NAFTA, so the deal is dead for now. And Trump can NOT proceed on NAFTA without Congressional approval which almost certainly will NOT happen without US-Canada included in the deal. ONLY Congress can replace NAFTA, not Trump. I've read that a mexico-US deal without Canada/NAFTA is a non-starter in Congress, but I don't know if that is factual.
    • JM
      John M.
      1 September 2018 @ 06:53
      What I have read is that Canada and USA were not able to conclude their trade negotiations by today but are scheduled to resume next week. Wow, if you are correct that "Mexico-US deal is a non-starter in Congress" then Congress would have given Canada great leverage to negotiate favourable terms for itself. Now if the Trump admin had negotiated in bad faith with Canada I could see that outcome but otherwise why give Canada a trump card (pardon the pun)?
  • MN
    Michael N.
    31 August 2018 @ 18:49
    Not your typical trade idea. No discussion on how Jens was going to put the trade on. He didn't discuss his entry level, no stop loss discussion, no level for exit, no time frame... Wonder why none of that was included in this one. I assume he's playing the currency pair, but that is really all I can do. I'll view it again, I didn't give the video my full attention.... maybe I missed something?
    • BP
      Brian P. | Real Vision
      31 August 2018 @ 21:17
      The only thing you missed was the forest for the trees. ;-)
  • JL
    Jack L.
    31 August 2018 @ 14:34
    Very good :)
  • JH
    John H.
    31 August 2018 @ 14:21
    Excellent, as usual. Always time to listen to Jens N.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    31 August 2018 @ 12:13
    Please have Jens back regularly

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